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Great to get the win yesterday, but I'd love some less stressful finishes! 

We were just under our expected score (-1) accoring to Champion Data, whilst the Crows were +7, meaning we would have won by 12 points rather than 4 if both teams kicked to AFL average. I interpret this as our underlying game play was slightly better than the actual score line suggests.

Really insightful stats from @WheeloRatings, particularly in relation to our D50 goals. We had a huge spike in these yesterday, with 66 compared to our season average of 36, making up more than two thirds of our score. This has been a trend the last couple of weeks with us scoring 28 vs Lions and 51 vs Saints after struggling vs Giants (11) and Cats (4). This seems to be a function of either a change in game plan, better weather (or playing under a roof) or a reversion to earlier in the year when we were less focused on forward half dominance and happier to play the turnover, quick ball movement game from the defensive half. Not sure how sustainable this is given the further you need to move the ball, the less likely you generally are to score. In saying that, striking a balance and being good at both is probably the way to go depending on what the opposition's weakness is. Our high score does paper over the cracks of our inability to score from F50 this week though with only 2 points coming from this area. The fact that the opposition took 17 intercept marks and we only had 1 tackle inside 50 from 52 entries didn't help this week either, although I sense this is an exception without having these stats readily available.

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On 7/16/2023 at 9:59 AM, Demon Dynasty said:

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 18, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver 5.285 1 5.320 -0.66 1 0
C Petracca 4.691 2 4.456 5.27 2 0
A Brayshaw 3.826 3 3.839 -0.34 5 2
J Jordon > 3.775 4 3.164 19.31 9 5
Jack Viney 3.727 5 3.971 -6.14 3 -2
T Rivers < 3.625 6 2.423 49.61 18 12
Max Gawn 3.412 7 3.643 -6.34 8 1
Steven May 3.233 8 3.971 -18.58 3 -5
C Salem 3.191 9 3.363 -5.11 7 -2
B Grundy 3.159 10 - - - -
Ed Langdon 3.127 11 3.109 0.58 11 0
Jake Bowey < 3.105 12 2.856 8.72 13 1
Jake Lever 3.041 13 2.703 12.50 14 1
L Hunter 3.005 14 - - - -
A Tomlinson 2.965 15 2.079 42.62 22 7
T Sparrow 2.950 16 2.665 10.69 16 0
J Harmes > 2.804 17 3.082 -9.02 12 -5
M Hibberd < 2.589 18 2.613 -0.92 17 -1
H Petty < 2.571 19 2.392 7.48 19 0
A N-Bullen 2.481 20 2.688 -7.70 15 -5
K Chandler < 2.360 21 - - - -
Judd McVee 2.271 22 - - - -
B Fritsch 2.230 23 1.936 15.19 27 4
K Pickett 2.207 24 2.118 4.20 21 -3
J V Rooyen 2.138 25 - - - -
T McDonald 2.054 26 1.967 4.42 26 0
Ben Brown < 1.975 27 1.762 12.09 29 2
C Spargo < 1.886 28 1.981 -4.80 24 -4
T Woewodin 1.725 29 - - - -
Joel Smith > 1.541 30 2.239 -31.17 20 -10
J Melksham > 1.536 31 1.947 -21.11 25 -6
J Schache * 1.375 32 - - - -
B Laurie < > * 1.300 33 - - - -
D Turner < * 1.075 34 - - - -
Team Rating 71.19   69.48 2.47    

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Look forward to your Crows Dees stats DD.!!

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Round 19, 2023 MCG - Demons vs Crows

Poetic outcome for Ed on his 150th.  Hopefully we can see those sort of levels from here and throughout the finals!

Just saw your post thanks DZ...you would have sent that as i was finalising!

Shouldn't read too much into one week but...

Some worrying numbers here amongst many.  How we even got over the line is a minor miracle given the Team Rating (TR) was down 18% on the season's average TR to last week.

Need to keep in mind the Clarry factor on the team rating.  Excruciating wait time now...bah!

Of course there were a few who bucked the trend & had a day out such as Ed (up 42%) , Kozzy & Chandler (50% +) and others who had a very good day (statistically) such as Rivers, ANB & Tomo.

Making up 10% to 20% differentials from usual season averages is certainly within reach and not usually a cause for alarm.  However when you see this over many many weeks (eg., May who is presently off his 2022 season average by approx 18% to last week) then of course some bells might start ringing a little as to what's going on.

25% - 30% plus however is a long way off and somewhat more concerning even if its a one week result.

Unless said player was under an effective lock/run with from opponent in this match (eg; possibly Viney), just having a one-off poor day or maybe the flu or similar.

Of course numbers can also be a poor indicator of what happened.  Most would say Jack was very influential on the outcome yesterday and one of our best, if not our best, but his rating doesn't reflect that.  His rating impacted by a hefty 9 turnovers, the most of any player on the day.

Watching the game however, you probably don't take as much notice given the heavy inside combative nature of Viney's game style and the positive outcomes that arise as a result.  Stats also don't take into account how well the oppo is playing / pressuring etc.  Not taking into account the oppo's efforts etc is also not doing the game any justice.

As i often say, always best to watch the game of course with stats being a mere rough incomplete guide as to what took place on the day.

P.S. take no notice of Smith's rating in this match vs his season rating as he was the sub and only played 21% match time.  Unfair comparison.

On the day i thought he was VG after coming on and should have been subbed in much earlier imv.  BB looked way off his best (this season) and a mile off his best in 2021 failing to get to many drops, unable to work his way into front position and very few effective leads.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency  
Disposals Per Goal  24.50
% In50s Goal 26.90
Conversion %

51.90

Crows

Scoring Efficiency

 
Disposals Per Goal  26.08
% In50s Goal 24.10
Conversion %

46.40

Player Rating Rank Season Rating to Prior Rnd % Change vs Season Rating
Ed Langdon 4.450 1 3.127 42.31
T Rivers 4.350 2 3.625 20.00
C Petracca 3.850 3 4.691 -17.93
K Chandler 3.775 4 2.360 59.96
A Brayshaw 3.750 5 3.826 -1.99
K Pickett 3.400 6 2.207 54.06
A Tomlinson 3.350 7 2.965 12.98
Max Gawn 3.275 8 3.412 -4.02
Jake Lever 2.875 9 3.041 -5.46
A N-Bullen 2.800 10 2.481 12.86
C Salem 2.725 11 3.191 -14.60
Jake Bowey 2.500 12 3.105 -19.48
T Sparrow 2.350 13 2.905 -19.10
S May 2.200 14 3.233 -31.95
J V Rooyen 2.200 15 2.138 2.90
Jack Viney 2.125 16 3.727 -42.98
J Jordon 1.900 17 3.775 -49.67
Judd McVee 1.825 18 2.271 -19.64
L Hunter 1.525 19 3.005 -49.25
T Woewodin 1.150 20 1.725 -33.33
B Brown < 61% 1.000 21 1.975 -49.37
J Smith > 21% 0.875 22 1.541 -43.22
J Melksham 0.775 23 1.536 -49.54
Team Rating 58.25   71.19 -18.18
Top 6 23.58   26.28 -10.29
Bottom 6 8.28   9.26 -10.64

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Thanks DD those figures show just how good the Crows were, their pressure and hard offensive running really dampened our effectiveness But we were still good enough to get over the line. !!!

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Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 19, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Three key aspects that if we can sort them we give ourselves a VG chance of making another PF, and who knows from there...

1.  The obvious one is getting Clarry back and somewhere near or at his best top line levels.

2.  Solve the Steven May mystery.  Might only be a mystery outside the four walls and he is just coming off what has been an amazing two years of AA level form, which is unsustainable given his age.  Alternatively this issue (ie;  age factor) and/or some sort of physical hindrance that us outsiders are unaware of.

If it's the latter then IMHO we seriously need to attempt to get him back towards the 21/22 AA levels we saw from the champ by carefully managing him through a fine tuning program vs the likes of North & the Hawks.

3.  Decide on who is taking the No.1 KTF role between the likes of BB (reportedly carrying a knee issue), Schache (unlikely as he seems out-of-favour with Goody & the FD even though in VG form at Casey the last few months) and/or (as a huge outside chance) maybe Macca if he can recover and find form/fitness prior to finals.  He is due back in terms of full training next week so we shall see.

Alternatively if none of those talls are serious medium-term options and/or too risky to plan as regulars coming in to finals, then we need to back in one of either Smith or Petty to play as the quasi Tall-Medium forward.  Using the one we aren't selecting in this role as the sub.

Tomlinson is in career best form.  He can handle the Petty role with ease and may well be the better of the two here right at this moment with Petty coming back from multiple injuries.  Between Tomo and Hibb we can manage nicely down back, selecting between either of those each week, depending on the oppo's tall / small mix and match ups.  For example it might be Hibb this week to take on the likes of Dusty... albeit i still think Hibb is another week at Casey away from hitting AFL level fitness.

An important phase coming up for Goody & Co. in a number of aspects.  Fingers crossed and good luck fellas.  Not easy!

Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver 5.285 1 5.320 -0.66 1 0
C Petracca 4.644 2 4.456 4.22 2 0
A Brayshaw 3.822 3 3.839 -0.44 5 2
T Rivers < 3.665 4 2.423 51.26 18 14
Jack Viney 3.632 5 3.971 -8.54 3 -2
J Jordon > < 3.569 6 3.164 12.80 9 3
Max Gawn 3.402 7 3.643 -6.62 8 1
Ed Langdon 3.204 8 3.109 3.06 11 3
Steven May 3.169 9 3.971 -20.20 3 -6
B Grundy 3.159 10 - - - -
C Salem 3.139 11 3.363 -6.66 7 -4
Jake Lever 3.031 12 2.703 12.13 14 2
A Tomlinson 3.029 13 2.079 45.70 22 9
T Sparrow 2.915 15 2.665 9.38 16 1
L Hunter 2.918 14 - - - -
Jake Bowey < 2.875 16 2.856 0.67 13 -3
J Harmes > 2.804 17 3.082 -9.02 12 -5
M Hibberd < 2.589 18 2.613 -0.92 17 -1
H Petty < 2.571 19 2.392 7.48 19 0
A N-Bullen 2.499 20 2.688 -7.03 15 -5
K Chandler < 2.451 21 - - - -
K Pickett 2.281 22 2.118 7.70 21 -1
Judd McVee 2.246 23 - - - -
B Fritsch 2.230 24 1.936 15.19 27 3
J V Rooyen 2.143 25 - - - -
T McDonald 2.054 26 1.967 4.42 26 0
Ben Brown < 1.941 27 1.762 10.16 29 2
C Spargo > < 1.886 28 1.981 -4.80 24 -4
Joel Smith 1.798 29 2.239 -19.70 20 -9
T Woewodin 1.533 30 - - - -
J Melksham > 1.407 31 1.947 -27.73 25 -6
J Schache * 1.375 32 - - - -
B Laurie < > * 1.300 33 - - - -
D Turner < * 1.075 34 - - - -
Team Rating 70.65   69.48 1.69    

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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A solid result in Player Ratings (source: @Fryzigg via Twitter) for the Dees last week. Team rating of 9.11, only slitghly below our last 40 game average of 9.33 and more aligned to early season form. Angus, Kozzie and Ed had the biggest jump in pure rating points, although Tomlinson and Chandler's relative increases were the highest. 

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Turning attention to this week's game and Richmond will pose a tough challenge. They are averaging a similar team score to us over the last 40 games (9.32) and have been particularly strong since Round 8 with only one really poor game.

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I also had a look at how the players who played last week have performed over the last 40 games based on player ratings and considering games experience. It stood out to me that we have a big gap in experience between 80 and 140 games, whilst Richmond have a solid core in this range with Shai Bolton a standout. This may explain some of our inconsistency within games this year. Also, Richmond's experienced stars are still contribtuing strongly, particularly Dusty who has the 4th best average of the two teams. The below also highlights that the Tigers have a more even spread of strong contributors (8 averaging over 10) whilst we tend to rely on 5: Trac, Gawn, Viney, Angus and May. 

image.thumb.png.580cf6f07bdc1740e74d84d372662497.png

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Opportunity is here in #AFLTigersDees: top 2 for Dees, top 8 for Tiges. Dees contest is top notch, but turnover & forward half game is off the boil. Tiges' turnover game is 3rd recently with their attacking efficiency strong but defensively vulnerable. Who will take their chance?

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I did some historical percentage analysis.  On that basis at this stage, IMO Port probably can't win the flag.  Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton and Geelong probably can.

Year Premier Percentage Rank
2022 Geelong 144.2 1
2021 Melbourne 130.8 3
2020 Richmond 129.9 3
2019 Richmond 113.7 5
2018 West Coast 121.4 4
2017 Richmond 118.3 4
2016 Western Bulldogs 115.4 7
2015 Hawthorn 158.4 1
2014 Hawthorn 140.8 2
2013 Hawthorn 135.7 1
2012 Sydney 140.6 2
2011 Geelong 157.4 2
2010 Collingwood 141.7 2
2009 Geelong 127.4 2
2008 Hawthorn 131.9 2
2007 Geelong 152.8 1
2006 West Coast 120.4 3
2005 Sydney 116.4 4
2004 Port Adelaide 132.4 2
2003 Brisbane 121.9 2
2002 Brisbane 136.7 1
2001 Brisbane 127.6 4
2000 Essendon 159.1 1
1999 North Melbourne 115.7 4
1998 Adelaide 123.2 1
1997 Adelaide 121.6 1
1996 North Melbourne 127.4 1
1995 Carlton 137.8 1
1994 West Coast 132.2 2
1993 Essendon 119.1 2
1992 West Coast 125.9 3
1991 Hawthorn 135.9 2
1990 Collingwood 130.2 2
  Mean 131.6 2.4
  Median 130.2 2
  Mode 127.4 2
  Maximum 159.1 1
  Minimum 113.7 7
Edited by old55
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Melbourne v Richmond (Round 20, 2023)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20232007

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat For Against Diff
Disposal Efficiency 71.1 67.4 +3.7
Kicking Efficiency 65.2 60.8 +4.4
Metres Gained 6300 5870 +430
Inside 50s 73 45 +28
Shots At Goal 33 24 +9
Shots Per Inside 50 45.2 53.3 -8.1
Contested Possessions 144 139 +5
Ground Ball Gets 93 96 -3
Intercepts 70 68 +2
Intercept Marks 18 20 -2
Centre Clearances 18 15 +3
Stoppage Clearances 31 25 +6
Contested Marks 13 6 +7
Marks Inside 50 20 10 +10
Hitouts 48 34 +14
Hitouts To Advantage 17 19 -2
Tackles 62 63 -1
Tackles Inside 50 14 10 +4
Def One On One Loss % 20.0 11.8 +8.2

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter For Against
1 183 151
2 170 206
3 188 190
4 187 176
Match 181 183

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player Pressure
Acts
Pressure
Points
Season
Average*
Jack Viney 28 62 54.5
Angus Brayshaw 29 52 33.1
Alex Neal-Bullen 16 42 46.4
Jake Bowey 13 39 21.6
Ed Langdon 15 37 28.2
Christian Petracca 15 35 48.2
James Jordon 18 35 23.8
James Harmes 17 34 36.0
Kysaiah Pickett 16 30 42.3
Trent Rivers 13 29 23.5
Harrison Petty 12 26 19.9
Kade Chandler 12 25 31.2
Jake Lever 13 25 15.7
Christian Salem 12 22 28.7
Taj Woewodin 14 22 23.0
Max Gawn 10 20 22.4
Judd McVee 9 19 18.5
Lachie Hunter 11 17 22.5
Steven May 7 13 14.7
Jake Melksham 6 11 13.4
Adam Tomlinson 4 10 13.9
Joel Smith 2 6 16.5
Jacob van Rooyen 2 5 22.1

* Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter For Against
1 57% 43%
2 44% 56%
3 62% 38%
4 76% 24%
Match 61% 39%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Category For Against Diff
G B T G B T
Kick-in 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0
Centre Bounce 4 1 25 2 3 15 +10
Stoppage (Other) 8 3 51 7 1 43 +8
Turnover 8 6 54 6 4 40 +14
Category For Against
Match Season Match Season
Kick-in 0 2.6 0 2.2
Centre Bounce 25 11.6 15 7.2
Stoppage (Other) 51 24.2 43 22.4
Turnover 54 54.0 40 42.6

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond.

Category Region For Against
Match Season Match Season
Kick-in D50 0 2.6 0 2.2
Centre Bounce Centre 25 11.6 15 7.2
Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.7 0 2.3
Stoppage (Other) Centre 6 2.9 6 1.4
Stoppage (Other) Wing 32 12.5 12 6.9
Stoppage (Other) F50 13 8.1 25 11.7
Turnover D50 7 11.2 2 6.0
Turnover Centre 12 7.8 6 6.7
Turnover Wing 16 28.0 24 21.9
Turnover F50 19 7.1 8 7.9
Region For Against
Match Season Match Season
D50 7 14.5 2 10.5
Centre 43 22.3 27 15.3
Wing 48 40.5 36 28.9
F50 32 15.1 33 19.7

Points from defensive half

For Against
Match Season Match Season
13 34.8 8 24.3

Shots at goal

Team Shots G B T Acc.
General Play
Melbourne 12 5 4 34 41.7
Richmond 15 8 6 54 53.3
Set Position
Melbourne 21 15 4 94 71.4
Richmond 9 7 0 42 77.8

Centre Bounce Attendances

  CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 %
Max Gawn 36 92 58.6 65.5
Jack Viney 32 82 71.3 74.6
Angus Brayshaw 29 74 31.4 16.0
Christian Petracca 27 69 62.9 74.6
James Jordon 15 38 28.0 0.2
James Harmes 9 23 26.9 14.6
Kysaiah Pickett 5 13 11.8 1.3
Jacob van Rooyen 3 8 6.4  
Trent Rivers 0 0 3.6 0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 2.7 3.5
Harrison Petty 0 0 0.8 0.0
Clayton Oliver     82.8 86.5
Brodie Grundy     55.7 83.7
Tom Sparrow     47.2 32.2
Tom McDonald     5.4 0.0
Josh Schache     0.0 13.8

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

  Ruck
Contests
RC % 2023 % 2022 %
Max Gawn 92 82 52.4 57.8
Jacob van Rooyen 15 13 10.9  
Harrison Petty 4 4 2.2 0.0
Christian Petracca 1 1 0.1 0.1
Joel Smith 0 0 0.1 0.0
Steven May 0 0 0.1 0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.1 0.0
Brodie Grundy     49.5 77.4
Tom McDonald     8.9 7.0
Josh Schache     6.7 13.4
Ben Brown     2.3 3.6
Clayton Oliver     0.0 0.0

Hitouts

  Ruck
Contests
Hitouts To
Adv.
To Adv. %
(2023)
To Adv. %
(2022)
Max Gawn 92 40 12 31.7 33.6
Jacob van Rooyen 15 5 4 29.8  
Harrison Petty 4 3 1 25.0  
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0  
Brodie Grundy       30.8 30.2
Tom McDonald       25.0 33.3
Ben Brown       0.0 14.3
Josh Schache         33.3

Opposition hitouts

  Ruck
Contests
Hitouts To
Adv.
Ivan Soldo 87 26 15
Ben Miller 11 5 2
Noah Balta 7 2 2
Marlion Pickett 6 1 0
Dustin Martin 1 0 0

 

Expected scores (Champion Data)

119 - 83

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Wow. Stats on steroids 

I’m liking the simple stuff 

Goalkicking. . set shots 15-4. In play 5-4. 
Clearances 49-40. Centre clearances 18-15
Tackles 62-63 🤔 Tackles in fwd 50 14-10
Marks inside fwd50  20-10

1%ers 41-60  🤯

Best stat. 130-98. 😊😊😊😊

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Round 20, 2023 MCG - Tigers vs Demons

Let's all get on board the P-Train!!  Can't recall the last time i saw a full time forward in the top 5 rated players. 

Mad Max strikes again!

Some amazing results from many with the bottom 6 players also outperforming the bottom 6 season average.

The Team Rating only 6% off the season average.  Massive improvement on last week's -18%.  Great result against quality opposition in good form.

Our best efficiency up forward since the Kangas in Rnd 7.

Clarry back soon?  Imagine if the majority of this team all click together and Clarry starts hitting his straps... that would be something very special me thinks.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency  
Disposals Per Goal  18.15
% In50s Goal 27.40
Conversion %

66.70

Tigers

Scoring Efficiency

 
Disposals Per Goal  22.27
% In50s Goal 33.30
Conversion %

65.20

Player Rating Rank Season Rating to Prior Rnd % Change vs Season Rating
Max Gawn 6.000 1 3.402 76.37
C Petracca 5.950 2 4.644 28.12
J Viney  4.975 3 3.632 36.98
T Rivers 4.400 4 3.665 20.05
H Petty 4.150 5 2.571 61.42
S May 3.675 6 3.169 15.97
Jake Lever 3.425 7 3.031 13.00
J Bowey 3.425 7 2.875 19.13
A Brayshaw 3.350 9 3.822 -12.35
L Hunter 2.875 10 2.918 -1.47
Ed Langdon 2.750 11 3.204 -14.17
J V Rooyen 2.625 12 2.143 22.49
J Harmes 2.625 12 2.804 -6.38
J McVee 2.300 14 2.246 2.40
A N-Bullen 2.100 15 2.499 -15.97
J Melksham 2.075 16 1.407 47.48
C Salem 2.050 17 3.139 -34.69
K Pickett 2.000 18 2.281 -12.32
J Jordon 1.675 19 3.569 -53.07
K Chandler 1.600 20 2.451 -34.72
J Smith > 40% 1.200 21 1.798 -33.26
T Woewodin 1.025 22 1.533 -33.14
A Tomlinson < 60% 0.325 23 3.029 -89.27
Team Rating 66.25   70.65 -6.23
Top 6 29.15   26.13 11.57
Bottom 6 9.55   9.21 3.73

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Thanks DD our top 8 plus JVR and Melksham really went up a few notches, some of those numbers are huge, unfortunately we also had a number of players that were right off the boil as well. Heaven help the opposition if we all get it together on the same day. Max’s numbers are insane.!!!

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10 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD our top 8 plus JVR and Melksham really went up a few notches, some of those numbers are huge, unfortunately we also had a number of players that were right off the boil as well. Heaven help the opposition if we all get it together on the same day. Max’s numbers are insane.!!!

That would be some game or even 'games' DZ. 

Imagine if we bring that sort of form from about 80% of the boys during finals :blink:

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Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 20, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver 5.285 1 5.320 -0.66 1 0
C Petracca 4.713 2 4.456 5.77 2 0
A Brayshaw 3.797 3 3.839 -1.09 5 2
Jack Viney 3.707 4 3.971 -6.65 3 -1
T Rivers < 3.705 5 2.423 52.91 18 13
Max Gawn 3.575 6 3.643 -1.87 8 2
J Jordon > < 3.383 7 3.164 6.92 9 2
Steven May 3.199 8 3.971 -19.44 3 -5
Ed Langdon 3.179 9 3.109 2.25 11 2
B Grundy 3.159 10 - - - -
Jake Lever 3.053 11 2.703 12.95 14 3
C Salem 3.030 12 3.363 -9.90 7 -5
T Sparrow 2.915 13 2.665 9.38 16 3
L Hunter 2.915 13 - - - -
Jake Bowey < 2.907 15 2.856 1.79 13 -2
A Tomlinson < 2.803 16 2.079 34.82 22 6
J Harmes > 2.772 17 3.082 -10.06 12 -5
H Petty < 2.707 18 2.392 13.17 19 1
M Hibberd < 2.589 19 2.613 -0.92 17 -2
A N-Bullen 2.478 20 2.688 -7.81 15 -5
K Chandler < 2.400 21 - - - -
K Pickett 2.265 22 2.118 6.94 21 -1
Judd McVee 2.249 23 - - - -
B Fritsch < 2.230 24 1.936 15.19 27 3
J V Rooyen 2.175 25 - - - -
T McDonald 2.054 26 1.967 4.42 26 0
Ben Brown < 1.941 27 1.762 10.16 29 2
Joel Smith > 1.892 28 2.239 -15.50 20 -8
C Spargo > < 1.886 29 1.981 -4.80 24 -5
J Melksham > 1.504 30 1.947 -22.75 25 -5
T Woewodin 1.406 31 - - - -
J Schache * 1.375 32 - - - -
B Laurie < > * 1.300 33 - - - -
D Turner < * 1.075 34 - - - -
Team Rating 70.54   69.48 1.52    

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Wow, what a game by the Dees to overcome the Tiges! Based on Champion Data Player Ratings, that was our best game since the North Melbourne smashing in Rd 7 and our 3rd best for the season, reaching 10.93 as a team. An interesting note is that Richmond scored 9.91 which is extremely high for a losing team (2nd highest for a losing team for the round behind Essendon's score of 10.28) and higher than for of the winning teams for the round.

Best performers for the Dees aligned to the test with Petty, Gawn and Melsham in the top 3 whilst Rivers was a bit of a surprise to me, coming 4th. 

image.thumb.png.33caf9439bb7af5582e64db676f2f192.png

For the upcoming game vs North Melbourne, the past ratings indicate this should be a comfortable win for the Dees with a 40 game average of 9.29 compared to North of 7.87. 

image.thumb.png.a7ce3fc41eef2ec4098ca6b0b2f359c9.png

In terms of looking at the teams from last round, North have a lot of inexperienced players with lower ratings across their last 40 games than Melbourne. Their key players are Goldstein (not ideal for the future), LDU, Simpkin, Thomas and Sheezel (unbelievable for a 19 game player). If the Deescan minimise the impact of most of these players I'd be very surprised if North have the depth to replace their usual output.

image.thumb.png.59660455625a7e1d8dcc56b749fdf492.png

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4 hours ago, Deelightful Dee said:

Wow, what a game by the Dees to overcome the Tiges! Based on Champion Data Player Ratings, that was our best game since the North Melbourne smashing in Rd 7 and our 3rd best for the season, reaching 10.93 as a team. An interesting note is that Richmond scored 9.91 which is extremely high for a losing team (2nd highest for a losing team for the round behind Essendon's score of 10.28) and higher than for of the winning teams for the round.

Best performers for the Dees aligned to the test with Petty, Gawn and Melsham in the top 3 whilst Rivers was a bit of a surprise to me, coming 4th. 

image.thumb.png.33caf9439bb7af5582e64db676f2f192.png

For the upcoming game vs North Melbourne, the past ratings indicate this should be a comfortable win for the Dees with a 40 game average of 9.29 compared to North of 7.87. 

image.thumb.png.a7ce3fc41eef2ec4098ca6b0b2f359c9.png

In terms of looking at the teams from last round, North have a lot of inexperienced players with lower ratings across their last 40 games than Melbourne. Their key players are Goldstein (not ideal for the future), LDU, Simpkin, Thomas and Sheezel (unbelievable for a 19 game player). If the Deescan minimise the impact of most of these players I'd be very surprised if North have the depth to replace their usual output.

image.thumb.png.59660455625a7e1d8dcc56b749fdf492.png

Some random reflections of this terrific data:

  • The ratings reflect what the eyes said - a super high quality game, with both teams playing out of their skin
  • The tigers are outsiders against the dogs at Marvel, but that ratings suggests they should almost go in as favs given the dogs gave up a half time 5 goal lead in must win game (albeit against team, the giants, who i really rate) - i happened to just listen to the catch up of Hoyne from Champion Data on (i really like his analysis - in large part because i agree with most of it!) and he made the point it is not who you play, its how you play
  • Whilst the tigers played great, their bets players fell in a hole in the last q - and for me it is further evidence of how critical fitness is and the relationship between player ratings and fitness (in the sense that i'm sure players like Soldo and Dusty's ratings would have fallen off  cliff in the last because they barely touched it and they looked completely gassed
  • Related to the above point the high ratings in this game tracks with the graph you put up DD with the player ratings mirroring our loading phases in 2021, 2022 and again this year (ie great rounds 1-9, poor middle of the season, on the rise as we approach finals) 
  • I'm surprised at how low Langer's ratings for this game
  • Nibbler (who by the by is our 13th highest ranked player, which might surprise many) keeps on keeping on
  • I love this data - thanks so much for going to the effort of posting it (same goes for Wheelo and Demon Dynasty)  
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On 7/19/2023 at 8:37 PM, binman said:

That is fascinating observation about the correlation between oppo mark differential and score.

One of the questions for the podcast is what happened in the second and third quarter in terms of the lions getting on top.

I watched the replay with that question in mind, and part of my answer was that the Lions really stretched the G and used the switch more than in any game since i could recall since the first half of 2022 when teams were desperately looking for ways to get past our defence the first Port game being the best example.

Teams gave up on that model because it became very clear that going fast was the only way to consistently trouble our defence because it makes it hard for  it to get set. Credit to McRae because he obviously gerried to this before the rest of the comp and made fast ball movement the foundation of their method. 

But Brisbane used a variation of the slow ball movement and keepings off method teams use in the 2022.  They switched and chipped it around - which of course involves lots of uncontested marks. But they didn't go overboard on that and combined it with incisive 20 -30 metre kicks going forward to lead up players. Again lots of uncontested marks.

And we seemed to allow many of these kicks - partic the switch kicks (which we always do). Our defence was set deeper than against the Pies, in part becuase Danhiher dragged May back to goal. And unlike against the Blues and Pies we didn't seem to look create density and congestion, and didn't apply much frontal pressure, or close down space. So there was a lot of space - which the Lions took advantage of with lots of sharp passes.

My feeling is part of the strategy was to separate our key defenders to isolate May and Lever one out (because they are both vulnerable one on one i reckon, partic lever) and limit the ability of lever, may and Petty to intercept mark - which is key driver of our scoring.  

The strategy worked really well, as not only did it blunt May, Lever and petty and give their tall forwards good one on one looks, they were able to tic tac over our zone wit kicks and create overlap that way. The goal Ashcroft kick was the perfect example of what i mean.  I';; check the stats for our previous three games against the Lions, but my gut feel is their uncontested marks numbers would have bene high in those games too - and its worth noting they are one of the few teams who have been able to regularly open us up. 

Another interesting part of all that using uncontested marks is clearly as they they have used specifically for the dees. It is it likely the Pies would try and follow suit? I din think so becuase every person and their dog have them on a pedestal so their conceit would be they don't need to try such a strategy to beat us. 

 

 

 

 

Really interested in this take @binman, so I did some reasinably simple statisticial correlation analysis on the stats I can obtain and identified some counter-intuitive, unexpected relationships between the margin in our game and individual stats.

I don't have uncontested mark data, but work it our by subtracting contested marks from total marks. But just so I can get this out before this week's game, I decided to work with total marks. The below table shows our games this year, the value of some key stats and the correlation between the key stats and the game margin. A simple explanation of correlation is that is isthe statistical relationship between the two values. It measures the extent to which two values are linearly related. For example, if both values change at the same rate (one value is 2, 4, 6, 8 and the other value is 1, 2, 3, 4) the correlation would be 1. In the below, it can be seen that the mark differntial and margin are 38.1% correlated, whilst our pure marks in a round are 44.1% correlated and opposition marks in a round are only 20.7% correlated with margin. 

Unsurprisingly, the goal difference in a round is 98.6% correlated, but what surprised me is that #2 is metres gained diffence in a round with a 92.6% correlation with the next two highest correlations being supercoach and supercoach difference both coming in at 88.9%. So taking last week's game, we had a 133 more metres gained than the Tigers at 3/4 time and ended up with 430 by the final siren. In terms of supercoach difference, we were 42 more at 3/4 time and finished 206 ahead. So keeping an eye on these stats through the game, may be the best predictor of whether we'll win or lose!

image.thumb.png.df353155aaf06b750ee624e313fbfbeb.png

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55 minutes ago, Deelightful Dee said:

 . So taking last week's game, we had a 133 more metres gained than the Tigers at 3/4 time and ended up with 430 by the final siren. In terms of supercoach difference, we were 42 more at 3/4 time and finished 206 ahead. So keeping an eye on these stats through the game, may be the best predictor of whether we'll win or lose!

image.thumb.png.df353155aaf06b750ee624e313fbfbeb.png

Doesn't supercoach weight last quarters higher. That would skew the numbers. 

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