Stats Files - 2023

[old55 21,356]

7 minutes ago, binman said:

Ok, but you acknowledge that they are playing different roles though don't you?  

ie chandler is a small forward and spargo and laurie are playing the distinct high half forward role?

I mean as I noted, yze specifically said Laurie would be playing the 'high half forward role'.

And that is exactly the role he played. He wasn't a crumbing forward or part of the midfield rotation (the role he played at casey).

My understanding was you argued that spargo was surplus to requirements in that we didn't need another small or medium forward.

And that if he were to come in, it would be at chandlers expense - and Chandler was the better option (better kick, more disposals, goal kickers and arguably as fit).

That's to say it was an either or scenario and you would go with Chandler.

I argued Chandler and spargo were not competing for the same spot. And that both would be selected.

Well Laurie came in and played spargo's high half forward role.

And so as we just saw, there was/is room for another small forward (ANB, Spargo/Laurie, koz, chandler).

I was wrong on thenplayer, but right on therole and number of small forwards.

The question is does spargo win his role back from Laurie.

I thought Laurie was good yesterday, but as I suggested it's hard to know how well he went without the gps data.

I did wonder a few times how well he was getting to his defensive spots as they picked their way through us fairly easily at times and that is a least partly a function of all team defence being off (eg say a Laurie can't prevent a switch or a lad up option).

I hope, and expect, he'll get another go at the role against the swans.

No I don't accept that Chandler, Laurie and Spargo play a different role. That is my whole point and there is no evidence that they do in the heatmaps or anywhere else AFAIK.  Chandler's heat maps show just as much activity in the densive half as Spargo's or Laurie's.

I totally accept your premise that ANB plays a different role and that is apparent in his heatmap.

Laurie and Chandler are both in the side at the expense of Spargo. 

[binman 38,484]

10 minutes ago, old55 said:

No I don't accept that Chandler, Laurie and Spargo play a different role. That is my whole point and there is no evidence that they do in the heatmaps or anywhere else AFAIK.  Chandler's heat maps show just as much activity in the densive half as Spargo's or Laurie's.

I totally accept your premise that ANB plays a different role and that is apparent in his heatmap.

Laurie and Chandler are both in the side at the expense of Spargo. 

Sorry old, I'm confused.

Nibbler plays the high half forward role.

As does spargo, when in the team.

And yze said 10 mins before the game that Laurie had come into to the team to play the high half forward role. His exact words. So the same role as nibbla and spargo.

Are you saying Chandler is also playing the high half forward role (which he sort of has been as as I have noted he has been playing a hybrid role to cover spargo)?

And I thought you argued we couldn't bring an additional small forward in, which is where our debate began (ie we didn't need spargo in because we have Chandler - Laurie was spargo).

I 100% agree Laurie is in the team at spargo's expense. Not Chandler though.

Edited August 21, 2023 by binman

[old55 21,356]

I don't care what you call it, Spargo and Chandler play the same role and ANB plays a different role from both of them. It's evident to my eyes and in their heatmaps.

[binman 38,484]

23 minutes ago, old55 said:

I don't care what you call it, Spargo and Chandler play the same role and ANB plays a different role from both of them. It's evident to my eyes and in their heatmaps.

Did you listen to that clip from Daniel hoyne defining the role?

Or the tmac one

It's not what I call it old, it's what the coaches, players and industry call it.

ANB and Spargo (and now Laurire) all play the high half forward role - as defined by the club, not me.

Nibbla might cover more ground, and Spargo/Laurie (like Miers) is more focused on inside 50 kicks, but it is essentially the same role.

Maybe it could be argued Chandler also plays that high half forward role, but i think he is a more traditional goal kicking small forward (though of course gets up the ground - like every single player, no matter what role they play)

In any case, we are not going to come together on this. I think you are wrong and Vicky versa.

Let's move on.

Edited August 21, 2023 by binman

[old55 21,356]

15 minutes ago, binman said:

Did you listen to that clip from Daniel hoyne defining the role?

Or the tmac one

It's not what I call it old, it's what the coaches, players and industry call it.

In any case, we are not going to come together on this. I think you are wrong(spargo/Laurie play different roles) and Vicky versa.

Let's move on.

I've also heard the term "speed forwards" used by Stafford.  Maybe Spargo is a speed forward like Chandler?

[binman 38,484]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

I've also heard the term "speed forwards" used by Stafford.  Maybe Spargo is a speed forward like Chandler?

That's right - I have heard Stafford, Yze and some players use the term 'speed forward' for the small forward role that look to apply pressure inside 50 and crumb packs (as well of course getting up and down the ground contributing to all team defence).

They use the term 'speed forwards' to differentiate the role from the other distinct forward roles - KPF and HHF.

And it's a good term because it captures two of the key attributes the speed forward need - power and acceleration from a standing start and speed over 30 - 40 metres (whereas, as TMac notes the high half forward have to be able to run quickly over 150 meters - striding speed - and do this over and over thru the game - and again as Tmac notes this requires diff, and very specific, athletic attributes and strengths).  

Tmac explicitly says in the clip i referenced that Spargo and Nibbla are our high half forwards (and may even mention the distinct small forward role).

Yze said Laurie came into the side to play the high half forward role (ie not the speed forward role - if laurie wasn't selected, Spargo, who was in the squad, would have almost certainly been picked). 

Koz, Chandler (and AMW at Casey) are our speed forwards. 

Using the miers example, at the  the cats he is a HHF and stengle is a speed forward.

There is of course some cross over - its not like the difference between say defenders and forwards for instance.

HHFs still crumb and kick goals and speed forwards still get up and down the ground to help out on all team defence running (but hopefully not so much they they are too gassed to be an effective speed forward).

Edited August 21, 2023 by binman

[Deelightful Dee 152]

3 hours ago, binman said:

My guess that may not have happened more that 2-3 times.

Probably lost them all and they are probably during our mid season fatigue phase, as we hardly ever lose cp full stop.

Symptom not cause. 

By my records, it's happened 4 times, with a 3-1 win/loss record:

R1: WB (lost contested possessions by 15, clearances by 7): won by 50

R2: Bris (lost contested possessions by 14, clearances by 28): lost by 11

R8: GCS (lost contested possessions by 27, clearances by 6): won by 5

R23: Haw (lost contested possessions by 8, clearances by 9): won by 27

 

We also had a close instance against the Saints:

R17: Stk (lost contested possessions by 8, clearances were level): won by 17

[Deelightful Dee 152]

3 hours ago, layzie said:

That was going to be my next observation but I couldn't find the uncontested possessions for that quarter. Hawthorn seem to do a fair bit of the uncontested mark style which would have meant less opportunity for pressure stats.

Also, do you think after a game like last week it was likely we weren't going to come out all guns blazing with pressure? 

Hawks' uncontested numbers yesterday:

Q1: Possessions: 69, Marks: 37

Q2: Possessions: 51, Marks: 15

Q3: Possessions: 68, Marks: 31

Q4: Possessions: 61, Marks: 25

A clear improvement in limiting their uncontested game in Q2, which I think helped turn the game leading to much improved territory and intercept outcomes and eventually scoreboard impact:

Q1: I50 diff: -4, Intercept diff: -2, Margin: -6

Q2: I50 diff: +9, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +8

Q3: I50 diff: +11, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +11

Q4: I50 diff: +7, Intercept diff: 0, Margin: +14

[Roost it far 6,216]

4 hours ago, binman said:

I thought they would try to actually - do what they did in the second and crack the hawks, then go into tempo control.

But they couldn’t quite bring it early doors- unsurprisingly given how brutal last weeks game was. The blues also struggled.

The brilliant thing about our run home is the roos and hawks game sere both lower pressure games that the preceding ones meaning we don't have the mutiple back to back high pressure, taxing games the blues and pies have had to push thru.

Even if the Swans game is full on pressure, which it might be but perhaps less than if they were still fighting for 8th and or we were fighting for a top 4 finish, we then have the pre final bye to freshen up.

So from the tough run of lions, creos, yigers hames we went roos (second half low pressure), blues (brutal) , hawks (relativy low pressure), swans (high pressure?) then bye.

If we play the pies they will be coming off the bye too, but geez they'll need it.

Hopefully the bombers will be stung into action and at least try and apply pressure. If so that's 5 or 6 very tough games in a row for the pies. Hard core.

That's us last year.

[old55 21,356]

2 hours ago, binman said:

That's right - I have heard Stafford, Yze and some players use the term 'speed forward' for the small forward role that look to apply pressure inside 50 and crumb packs (as well of course getting up and down the ground contributing to all team defence).

They use the term 'speed forwards' to differentiate the role from the other distinct forward roles - KPF and HHF.

And it's a good term because it captures two of the key attributes the speed forward need - power and acceleration from a standing start and speed over 30 - 40 metres (whereas, as TMac notes the high half forward have to be able to run quickly over 150 meters - striding speed - and do this over and over thru the game - and again as Tmac notes this requires diff, and very specific, athletic attributes and strengths).  

Tmac explicitly says in the clip i referenced that Spargo and Nibbla are our high half forwards (and may even mention the distinct small forward role).

Yze said Laurie came into the side to play the high half forward role (ie not the speed forward role - if laurie wasn't selected, Spargo, who was in the squad, would have almost certainly been picked). 

Koz, Chandler (and AMW at Casey) are our speed forwards. 

Using the miers example, at the  the cats he is a HHF and stengle is a speed forward.

There is of course some cross over - its not like the difference between say defenders and forwards for instance.

HHFs still crumb and kick goals and speed forwards still get up and down the ground to help out on all team defence running (but hopefully not so much they they are too gassed to be an effective speed forward).

Look we'll have to agree to disagree. I think that Spargo and Chandler have very similar attributes and play very similar roles, you think that Spargo offers something significantly different that enables him to do something significantly different. I haven’t seen any evidence in kms per game, heatmap or time trial results to verify this. There is tracker evidence that Chandler is quicker.

FWIW I think if TMac was currently in the team he'd say that ANB and Chandler are playing those vital roles.

There is no concrete evidence that Stafford was referring to only Kossie and Chandler as speed forwards.

Let's disagree.

[rpfc 27,507]

Speed forwards, Stafford mentions it all the time. Aren’t we supposed to listen to what the people club say?

 

[binman 38,484]

4 hours ago, Deelightful Dee said:

Hawks' uncontested numbers yesterday:

Q1: Possessions: 69, Marks: 37

Q2: Possessions: 51, Marks: 15

Q3: Possessions: 68, Marks: 31

Q4: Possessions: 61, Marks: 25

A clear improvement in limiting their uncontested game in Q2, which I think helped turn the game leading to much improved territory and intercept outcomes and eventually scoreboard impact:

Q1: I50 diff: -4, Intercept diff: -2, Margin: -6

Q2: I50 diff: +9, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +8

Q3: I50 diff: +11, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +11

Q4: I50 diff: +7, Intercept diff: 0, Margin: +14

Mitchell said in his presser they came in with a plan to deny us the ball, hence the really high uncontested possession and mark numbers in the first. 

My take is we consciously allowed them to play that way in the first because it suited us - the very last thing we wanted was another brutal, energy sapping encounter as we would have still been recovering from last week's epic.

So a bruise free game is exactly what the doctor ordered for us. 

I think that was tactical error by Mitchell, because their chance to beat us was to come at us early. Which is the approach the Suns took against the blues.

Perhaps Mitchell thought that  spreading, chipping it around and forcing us to run and cover would gas us the way it did against the Pies (though they were way more brutal in that match - and went faster in terms of going forward). 

And perhaps he didn't have another option as they were coming off a six day break and their own mini epic.

They also lost their best, most physical player in Jai Newcome and a power forward in Lewis. 

Their drop in uncontested possessions and marks in the second quarter directly correlate with our increased pressure rating (192 - 155).

They could not match us in that quarter for pressure - a 37 diff is nuts (I'd be very surprised if we have had a bigger diff, either way, this season), nor in the third when the pressure ratings diff was 21 (still very big).

Two quarters in 4th gear (with a gear up our sleeves).

That increase in pressure allowed us to play the second and third quaryers and first third of the last quarter on our terms, the dees DNA (as evidenced by CPs, time in forward half, i50s and scores from turnover)

And as you say DD translated to much improved territory and intercept outcomes, and eventually scoreboard impact.

In the last quarter, once we got a 3 goal margin, we dropped back to third gear and allowed them to go back to their chip it around mode - and we did the same thing too for good measure (which i just loved to see).

Our pressure in the last q was 179, but i suspect it was probably only 150 for the last 10 mins (so perhaps 185-190 in the first third of the final quarter).

Very smart coaching from Goody from both a tactical and load management perspective. 

Edited August 21, 2023 by binman

[Demon Dynasty 15,566]

Round 23, 2023 MCG - Demons vs Hawks

A decent win given the top 22 team rating was off the season average by a pretty significant 14%. 

Some credit needs to go to the Hawks here as they pushed us for three quarter playing double the number of rookies (12 vs 6) and with an average game differential of 50 games (each player roughly 2.4 seasons behind on average).  As much as it pains me to say it, they appear to be developing and doing pretty well and should be on everyone's radar in 2024 as a rising threat.   

The Hawks must have forgotten how good Rivers is though as he also topped the ratings charts last time we played them in Rnd 9 with a 5.15  This was also his third time at No.1 with his second a 4.95 against the Cats in Rnd 15.  A great bounce back from last year for our young premiership star, coming on leaps and bounds this season.

A fabulous result from Lever, McVee and Melk vs their season average rating, with Melk up a massive 68%.  Nice to see young Roohey maintaining his good form.

Contrast this with the worst result by any player of the season, Kozzy putting in a negative rating of 0.35  The overall numbers summary is as bad as it gets...2 effectives @ 20%, 1 one percenter, 1 mark i50, 2 tackles (1 inside 50), 2 intercepts, 83 meters gained and 5 turnovers.  Seems to be having some big swings in form for some reason.  Hopefully saving his best for finals!

Great result from Nibbler on his 150th with Maxy having a bit of an off day on his milestone vs his usual season standards.

Clarry second week blues and/or under a heavy tag?  45% off his lofty season rating.

Saw some criticism of Tomo's game and that he was subbed as a result, however the numbers would suggest maybe for another reason as he played 81% game time and outscored his season average rating by a significant 10%.  Of course he may not have hit some other factors the coaches are looking at such as defensive 1 v 1 wins etc so the critics may also have been correct.  I'm not saying either way as we can't really know the reasoning without some inside intel.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	26.54
% In50s Goal	21.30
Conversion %	59.10

Hawks Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	41.44
% In50s Goal	23.70
Conversion %	60.00

Player	Rating	Rank	Season Rating to Prior Rnd	% Change vs Season Rating
T Rivers	4.650	1	3.740	24.33
Jake Lever	4.600	2	3.080	49.35
Jack Viney	4.525	3	3.626	24.79
C Petracca	4.400	4	4.762	-7.60
T Sparrow	3.600	5	2.836	26.94
C Salem	3.325	6	3.075	8.13
A Brayshaw	3.250	7	3.946	-17.64
J McVee	3.125	8	2.237	39.70
A Tomlinson < 81%	3.100	9	2.803	10.60
C Oliver	2.875	10	5.234	-45.07
A N-Bullen	2.850	11	2.456	16.04
S May	2.800	12	3.201	-12.53
J Bowey	2.500	13	2.849	-12.25
J Melksham	2.425	14	1.444	67.94
J V Rooyen	2.175	15	2.181	-0.28
Max Gawn	2.100	16	3.465	-39.39
Ed Langdon	2.075	17	3.154	-34.21
K Chandler	1.825	18	2.354	-22.47
Joel Smith	1.550	19	1.993	-22.23
L Hunter	1.475	20	3.104	-52.48
B Laurie*	1.150	21	1.300	-11.54
J Schache* > 17%	0.150	22	1.375	-89.09
K Pickett	-0.350	23	2.238	-115.64
Team Rating	60.53		70.39	-14.01
Top 6	25.10		26.41	-4.96
Bottom 6	8.23		9.74	-15.55

* Played less than two full games in total

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited August 21, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[DeeZone 7,809]

Thanks DD it just shows how good this team really is, when our stars are down the next layer of players lift to new heights to cover the gaps, when we all click together, watch out.!!

[Binmans PA 26,231]

11 hours ago, binman said:

My guess that may not have happened more that 2-3 times.

Probably lost them all and they are probably during our mid season fatigue phase, as we hardly ever lose cp full stop.

Symptom not cause. 

We lost not only CP but UP. Incredible...

[WheeloRatings 939]

22 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

@WheeloRatings, what’s our W/L record when losing both CPs and clearances this year?

We have lost both CPs and clearances four times this year, against Western Bulldogs (R1), Brisbane (R2), Gold Coast (R8) and Hawthorn (R23), and are 3-1.

RoundName	Opposition	Clearances	CPs	Margin
Round 1	Western Bulldogs	-7	-15	50
Round 2	Brisbane	-28	-15	-11
Round 8	Gold Coast	-7	-27	5
Round 23	Hawthorn	-9	-8	27

Here is our record since 2018 when losing both:

Season	M	Win	Loss	Draw
2018	2	1	1	0
2019	4	0	4	0
2020	2	1	1	0
2021	3	2	1	0
2022	4	2	2	0
2023	4	3	1	0

We are 9-3 when we win both this year:

Clearances	CPs	M	Win	Loss	Draw
Won	Won	12	9	3	0
Won	Lost	2	1	1	0
Lost	Won	3	1	2	0
Lost	Lost	4	3	1	0
Drew	Lost	1	1	0	0

[Demon Dynasty 15,566]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 23, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.038	1	5.320	-5.30	1	0
C Petracca	4.745	2	4.456	6.49	2	0
A Brayshaw	3.915	3	3.839	1.98	5	2
T Rivers <	3.782	4	2.423	56.09	18	14
Jack Viney	3.669	5	3.971	-7.61	3	-2
J Jordon > <	3.431	6	3.164	8.44	9	3
Max Gawn	3.389	7	3.643	-6.97	8	1
Steven May	3.181	8	3.971	-19.89	3	-5
Jake Lever	3.152	9	2.703	16.61	14	5
Ed Langdon	3.102	10	3.109	-0.23	11	1
C Salem	3.094	11	3.363	-8.00	7	-4
B Grundy	3.035	12	-	-	-	-
L Hunter	3.026	13	-	-	-	-
A Tomlinson <	2.915	14	2.079	40.21	22	8
T Sparrow	2.874	15	2.665	7.84	16	1
Jake Bowey <	2.831	16	2.856	-0.88	13	-3
H Petty <	2.718	17	2.392	13.63	19	2
J Harmes >	2.670	18	3.082	-13.37	12	-6
M Hibberd > <	2.610	19	2.613	-0.11	17	-2
A N-Bullen	2.474	20	2.688	-7.96	15	-5
K Chandler <	2.327	21	-	-	-	-
Judd McVee	2.277	22	-	-	-	-
B Fritsch <	2.230	23	1.936	15.19	27	4
J V Rooyen	2.181	24	-	-	-	-
K Pickett	2.109	25	2.118	-0.42	21	-4
T McDonald	2.054	26	1.967	4.42	26	0
Ben Brown <	1.941	27	1.762	10.16	29	2
Joel Smith >	1.938	28	2.239	-13.44	20	-8
C Spargo > <	1.886	29	1.981	-4.80	24	-5
B Laurie > < *	1.571	30	-	-	-	-
J Melksham >	1.543	31	1.947	-20.75	25	-6
J Schache *	1.525	32	-	-	-	-
T Woewodin	1.406	33	-	-	-	-
D Turner < *	1.075	34	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	70.26		69.48	1.12

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[WheeloRatings 939]

Melbourne v Sydney (Round 24, 2023)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20232408

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	63.9	71.2	-7.3
Kicking Efficiency	58.9	67.0	-8.1
Metres Gained	6145	5729	+416
Inside 50s	58	51	+7
Shots At Goal	30	27	+3
Shots Per Inside 50	51.7	52.9	-1.2
Contested Possessions	160	157	+3
Ground Ball Gets	112	121	-9
Intercepts	79	73	+6
Intercept Marks	15	7	+8
Centre Clearances	10	10	+0
Stoppage Clearances	27	24	+3
Contested Marks	11	13	-2
Marks Inside 50	12	12	+0
Hitouts	40	22	+18
Hitouts To Advantage	8	6	+2
Tackles	79	76	+3
Tackles Inside 50	19	16	+3
Def One On One Loss %	12.5	36.4	-23.9

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	172	182
2	185	199
3	198	214
4	192	193
Match	187	197

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average*
Clayton Oliver	37	86	59.7
Jack Viney	25	69	56.6
Alex Neal-Bullen	26	63	45.7
Angus Brayshaw	21	48	35.5
Christian Salem	21	44	31.1
Ed Langdon	17	38	28.3
Kysaiah Pickett	16	37	41.7
Tom Sparrow	20	34	43.8
Kade Chandler	16	32	31.4
Joel Smith	12	32	19.4
Christian Petracca	15	28	46.0
Trent Rivers	13	26	23.2
Jacob van Rooyen	10	24	22.2
Daniel Turner	7	21	18.0
Judd McVee	7	20	18.1
Jake Melksham	8	17	16.5
Bayley Fritsch	7	16	18.8
Bailey Laurie	8	16	14.0
Lachie Hunter	8	15	23.7
Max Gawn	8	14	21.6
Jake Bowey	6	11	22.1
Steven May	6	9	14.4
Jake Lever	6	8	15.1

* Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	55%	45%
2	61%	39%
3	43%	57%
4	56%	44%
Match	53%	47%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Category	For			Against			Diff
	G	B	T	G	B	T
Kick-in	0	1	1	0	2	2	-1
Centre Bounce	0	1	1	3	2	20	-19
Stoppage (Other)	3	5	23	1	2	8	+15
Turnover	8	4	52	3	8	26	+26

Category	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	1	2.5	2	2.4
Centre Bounce	1	11.0	20	8.3
Stoppage (Other)	23	23.8	8	20.4
Turnover	52	53.0	26	41.1

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	D50	1	2.5	2	2.4
Centre Bounce	Centre	1	11.0	20	8.3
Stoppage (Other)	D50	0	0.6	1	2.0
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	0	2.7	0	1.2
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	8	12.4	1	6.6
Stoppage (Other)	F50	15	8.1	6	10.7
Turnover	D50	12	11.9	7	6.2
Turnover	Centre	12	7.8	7	6.2
Turnover	Wing	20	26.6	11	20.9
Turnover	F50	8	6.7	1	7.8

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
D50	13	15.0	10	10.6
Centre	13	21.6	27	15.6
Wing	28	39.0	12	27.5
F50	23	14.8	7	18.5

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season
19	33.9	14	24.1

Shots at goal

Team	Shots	G	B	T	Acc.
General Play
Melbourne	17	4	7	31	23.5
Sydney	14	4	4	28	28.6
Set Position
Melbourne	13	7	3	45	53.8
Sydney	13	3	7	25	23.1

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2023 %	2022 %
Jack Viney	18	82	71.6	74.6
Max Gawn	18	82	62.7	65.5
Clayton Oliver	17	77	79.9	86.5
Angus Brayshaw	13	59	36.1	16.0
Christian Petracca	8	36	61.0	74.6
Tom Sparrow	6	27	44.9	32.2
Jacob van Rooyen	4	18	7.7
Kysaiah Pickett	2	9	11.6	1.3
Trent Rivers	1	5	3.2	0.0
Lachie Hunter	1	5	0.2	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	2.3	3.5
Brodie Grundy			54.4	83.7
James Jordon			27.6	0.2
James Harmes			26.7	14.6
Tom McDonald			5.4	0.0
Harrison Petty			0.7	0.0
Josh Schache			0.0	13.8

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2023 %	2022 %
Max Gawn	50	60	55.3	57.8
Jacob van Rooyen	25	30	13.0
Joel Smith	8	10	1.0	0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0.2	0.1
Clayton Oliver	0	0	0.1	0.0
Steven May	0	0	0.1	0.0
Tom Sparrow	0	0	0.1	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0.0	0.0
Brodie Grundy			47.7	77.4
Tom McDonald			8.9	7.0
Josh Schache			6.2	13.4
Ben Brown			2.3	3.6
Harrison Petty			2.0	0.0

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2023)	To Adv. % (2022)
Max Gawn	50	24	3	30.7	33.6
Jacob van Rooyen	25	15	5	31.5
Joel Smith	8	1	0	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0	0.0
Brodie Grundy				30.4	30.2
Harrison Petty				25.0
Tom McDonald				25.0	33.3
Ben Brown				0.0	14.3
Josh Schache				0.0	33.3

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Tom Hickey	57	17	5
Hayden McLean	21	4	1
Joel Amartey	5	1	0

 

Expected scores (Champion Data)

85 - 81

 

[Deelightful Dee 152]

Some key stats that showed how we upped our game after the Swans got out to a 17 point lead two thirds of the way through the 3rd quarter. From the 20 min mark of the 3rd quarter:

- We had 19 more contested possessions (71 to 52)

- Recorded 38 tackles (15 coming after the 20 min mark of the 3rd quarter to the end of the 3rd quarter alone)

- 7 more inside 50s (21 to 14)

- Outscored the Swans by 37 (40 to 3)

- Scored 48% of the time we went inside 50 at 1.9 points per entry and held the Swans to scoring 21% of the time they went inside 50 at 0.21 points per entry.

If we play at that level, we'll be hard to stop. It's a matter of how long we can play at that level now that finals are here!

[layzie 28,937]

They should call us 'The Red Time Redlegs'

[Deelightful Dee 152]

56 minutes ago, layzie said:

They should call us 'The Red Time Redlegs'

We are the minor premier in last quarters (interesting to see Burgess' Adelaide in 3rd):

Source: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ladder?year=2023&pt=PD&st=Q4&sb=p

[Demon Dynasty 15,566]

Round 24, 2023 SCG - Swans vs Demons

A costly win.  We just can't take a trick up forward this season and a sad result for our two boys.  Fritta also yet to be cleared so fingers crossed there.

Clarry coming back into some form just in time?  Not far off his season average against the Swans just pipping Viney for the No.1 rating.

May having a much improved result with a rating only 2% - 3% off his top end season 2021 (3.926) & 2022 (3.971) ratings!  Hopefully a very positive sign for the champ coming into finals.

ANB. Viney, Fritta, McVee & Turner posting some solid results vs their season averages, albeit Disco has no meaningful base having played only one (subbed) match vs the Suns in Rnd 8 to use as a season comparison.

Fabulous result for Laurie matching his average from his few previous entrees in just one quarter of football.

JVR having 5 hit outs to advantage vs Max's 3!  Not a bad effort.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	32.45
% In50s Goal	19.00
Conversion %	50.00

Swans Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	51.57
% In50s Goal	13.70
Conversion %	33.30

The attributes of both teams very even across the board...

Average Attributes
Sydney	Attribute	Melbourne
187.2cm	Height	186.0cm
86.3kg	Weight	86.0kg
25yr 10mth	Age	25yr 11mth
113.7	Games	115.9

Total Players By Games
Sydney	Games	Melbourne
5	Less than 50	7
7	50 to 99	3
4	100 to 149	1
4	150 to 200	9
3	200 or more	3

 

Player	Rating	Rank	Season Rating to Prior Rnd	% Change vs Season Rating
C Oliver	4.575	1	5.038	-9.19
Jack Viney	4.500	2	3.669	22.65
C Petracca	3.850	3	4.745	-18.86
S May	3.850	3	3.181	21.03
A N-Bullen	3.800	5	2.474	53.60
B Fritsch	3.550	6	2.230	59.19
J McVee	3.250	7	2.277	42.73
A Brayshaw	3.175	8	3.915	-18.90
Jake Lever	2.675	9	3.152	-15.13
Max Gawn	2.650	10	3.389	-21.81
J Bowey	2.600	11	2.831	-8.16
Ed Langdon	2.100	12	3.102	-32.30
D Turner	2.100	12	1.075	95.35
J V Rooyen	1.975	14	2.181	-9.45
K Pickett	1.950	15	2.109	-7.54
T Rivers	1.825	16	3.782	-51.75
C Salem	1.675	17	3.094	-45.86
T Sparrow	1.550	18	2.874	-46.07
B Laurie > 23%	1.550	18	1.571	-1.34
J Melksham < 59%	1.500	20	1.543	-2.79
Joel Smith	1.250	21	1.938	-35.50
L Hunter	1.100	22	3.026	-63.65
K Chandler	1.050	23	2.327	-54.88
Team Rating	57.05		70.26	-18.80
Top 6	24.13		26.35	-8.44
Bottom 6	8.63		9.29	-7.16

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited August 28, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 15,566]

Team & Player Ratings (H&A) Season 2023 vs Season 2022

Well that's a wrap folks.  Our top 22 ranked players posting a marginal 0.5% gain on last season's rating.

For the 6th year running Clarry takes out the number one mantle!

Ok so he probably won't win any of the weekly vote based industry comps including the Chas and the Bluey but they're based on cumulative outcomes rather than week to week standards when on the park.

It should be noted that prior to his injury Clarry was tracking in line with his 2022 result.  The 6% differential is purely the injury effect since his return in Rnd 22 vs the Blues.

Let's take a look at some of his season stat averages...

14.5 Contesteds (ranked 1st), 16.2 uncontesteds (1st), 20.4 effectives (1st) @ 67.5%,  2 one percenters, 6.6 clearances (1st), 2.4 rebounds (10th), 5.1 inside 50s (3rd), 6.3 tackles (1st) with 1.1 of those inside 50 (4th), 7 score involvements (2nd behind Tracc on 8.3), 438 Meters gained (2nd to Tracc on 451), 4.8 intercepts (9th), 0.5 goals (18th) and 5.7 turnovers (1st)

A great result from Tracc improving on an already impressive 2022 by 5%.  Gus & Viney (to a lessor degree) holding their form nicely throughout the season vs 2022.

Rivers the obvious stand out with a massive 52% gain on 2022.  Tomo & Fritsch also up there.

Salem, Harmes and May of some concern.  Although May trumped the 19% season differential with a big match return to 2022 type rating against the Swans.  Suspect the FD might have managed him conservatively throughout the season in order to ensure he wasn't cooked at any point.  Let's hope he can take that form line into the forthcoming finals campaign.

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.002	1	5.320	-5.98	1	0
C Petracca	4.707	2	4.456	5.63	2	0
A Brayshaw	3.883	3	3.839	1.15	5	2
Jack Viney	3.707	4	3.971	-6.65	3	-1
T Rivers <	3.696	5	2.423	52.54	18	13
J Jordon > <	3.431	6	3.164	8.44	9	3
Max Gawn	3.350	7	3.643	-8.04	8	1
Steven May	3.213	8	3.971	-19.09	3	-5
Jake Lever	3.131	9	2.703	15.83	14	5
Ed Langdon	3.057	10	3.109	-1.67	11	1
B Grundy	3.035	11	-	-	-	-
C Salem	2.993	12	3.363	-11.00	7	-5
L Hunter	2.939	13	-	-	-	-
A Tomlinson <	2.915	14	2.079	40.21	22	8
Jake Bowey <	2.820	15	2.856	-1.26	13	-2
T Sparrow	2.811	16	2.665	5.48	16	0
H Petty <	2.718	17	2.392	13.63	19	2
J Harmes >	2.670	18	3.082	-13.37	12	-6
M Hibberd > <	2.610	19	2.613	-0.11	17	-2
A N-Bullen	2.532	20	2.688	-5.80	15	-5
B Fritsch <	2.324	21	1.936	20.04	27	6
Judd McVee	2.320	22	-	-	-	-
K Chandler <	2.265	23	-	-	-	-
B Laurie > < *	2.235	24	-	-	-	-
J V Rooyen	2.170	25	-	-	-	-
K Pickett	2.101	26	2.118	-0.80	21	-5
T McDonald	2.054	27	1.967	4.42	26	-1
Ben Brown <	1.941	28	1.762	10.16	29	1
C Spargo > <	1.886	29	1.981	-4.80	24	-5
Joel Smith >	1.863	30	2.239	-16.79	20	-10
D Turner < *	1.825	31	-	-	-	-
J Melksham > <	1.599	32	1.947	-17.87	25	-7
J Schache > *	1.525	33	-	-	-	-
T Woewodin	1.406	34	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	69.86		69.48	0.55

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[DeeZone 7,809]

Thanks for your efforts DD I follow these individual stats with much interest, it is great that we have been able to maintain our team rating at the same level as 2022 with Trent Rivers the standout improver. Our forwards are banged up this year but the rest of the team appear to be in better shape than last year (touch wood) heading into the pointy end of the year. 

 

[old55 21,356]

4 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Team & Player Ratings (H&A) Season 2023 vs Season 2022

Well that's a wrap folks.  Our top 22 ranked players posting a marginal 0.5% gain on last season's rating.

For the 6th year running Clarry takes out the number one mantle!

Ok so he probably won't win any of the weekly vote based industry comps including the Chas and the Bluey but they're based on cumulative outcomes rather than week to week standards when on the park.

It should be noted that prior to his injury Clarry was tracking in line with his 2022 result.  The 6% differential is purely the injury effect since his return in Rnd 22 vs the Blues.

Let's take a look at some of his season stat averages...

14.5 Contesteds (ranked 1st), 16.2 uncontesteds (1st), 20.4 effectives (1st) @ 67.5%,  2 one percenters, 6.6 clearances (1st), 2.4 rebounds (10th), 5.1 inside 50s (3rd), 6.3 tackles (1st) with 1.1 of those inside 50 (4th), 7 score involvements (2nd behind Tracc on 8.3), 438 Meters gained (2nd to Tracc on 451), 4.8 intercepts (9th), 0.5 goals (18th) and 5.7 turnovers (1st)

A great result from Tracc improving on an already impressive 2022 by 5%.  Gus & Viney (to a lessor degree) holding their form nicely throughout the season vs 2022.

Rivers the obvious stand out with a massive 52% gain on 2022.  Tomo & Fritsch also up there.

Salem, Harmes and May of some concern.  Although May trumped the 19% season differential with a big match return to 2022 type rating against the Swans.  Suspect the FD might have managed him conservatively throughout the season in order to ensure he wasn't cooked at any point.  Let's hope he can take that form line into the forthcoming finals campaign.

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.002	1	5.320	-5.98	1	0
C Petracca	4.707	2	4.456	5.63	2	0
A Brayshaw	3.883	3	3.839	1.15	5	2
Jack Viney	3.707	4	3.971	-6.65	3	-1
T Rivers <	3.696	5	2.423	52.54	18	13
J Jordon > <	3.431	6	3.164	8.44	9	3
Max Gawn	3.350	7	3.643	-8.04	8	1
Steven May	3.213	8	3.971	-19.09	3	-5
Jake Lever	3.131	9	2.703	15.83	14	5
Ed Langdon	3.057	10	3.109	-1.67	11	1
B Grundy	3.035	11	-	-	-	-
C Salem	2.993	12	3.363	-11.00	7	-5
L Hunter	2.939	13	-	-	-	-
A Tomlinson <	2.915	14	2.079	40.21	22	8
Jake Bowey <	2.820	15	2.856	-1.26	13	-2
T Sparrow	2.811	16	2.665	5.48	16	0
H Petty <	2.718	17	2.392	13.63	19	2
J Harmes >	2.670	18	3.082	-13.37	12	-6
M Hibberd > <	2.610	19	2.613	-0.11	17	-2
A N-Bullen	2.532	20	2.688	-5.80	15	-5
B Fritsch <	2.324	21	1.936	20.04	27	6
Judd McVee	2.320	22	-	-	-	-
K Chandler <	2.265	23	-	-	-	-
B Laurie > < *	2.235	24	-	-	-	-
J V Rooyen	2.170	25	-	-	-	-
K Pickett	2.101	26	2.118	-0.80	21	-5
T McDonald	2.054	27	1.967	4.42	26	-1
Ben Brown <	1.941	28	1.762	10.16	29	1
C Spargo > <	1.886	29	1.981	-4.80	24	-5
Joel Smith >	1.863	30	2.239	-16.79	20	-10
D Turner < *	1.825	31	-	-	-	-
J Melksham > <	1.599	32	1.947	-17.87	25	-7
J Schache > *	1.525	33	-	-	-	-
T Woewodin	1.406	34	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	69.86		69.48	0.55

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

 

It's good to try to use some metrics to get player ratings but I think you need to refine the model if McVee and ANB are scoring a lot less than Jordon and Harmes.  Melksham at 1.599 is an aberration too based on his actual game winning contributions.  You seem to be giving KPBs like May and Lever some boost which is good, but small backs and small forwards are not being rewarded sufficiently.

Edited August 29, 2023 by old55