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7 minutes ago, binman said:

Ok, but you acknowledge that they are playing different roles though don't you?  

ie chandler is a small forward and spargo and laurie are playing the distinct high half forward role?

I mean as I noted, yze specifically said Laurie would be playing the 'high half forward role'.

And that is exactly the role he played. He wasn't a crumbing forward or part of the midfield rotation (the role he played at casey).

My understanding was you argued that spargo was surplus to requirements in that we didn't need another small or medium forward.

And that if he were to come in, it would be at chandlers expense - and Chandler was the better option (better kick, more disposals, goal kickers and arguably as fit).

That's to say it was an either or scenario and you would go with Chandler.

I argued Chandler and spargo were not competing for the same spot. And that both would be selected.

Well Laurie came in and played spargo's high half forward role.

And so as we just saw, there was/is room for another small forward (ANB, Spargo/Laurie, koz, chandler).

I was wrong on thenplayer, but right on therole and number of small forwards.

The question is does spargo win his role back from Laurie.

I thought Laurie was good yesterday, but as I suggested it's hard to know how well he went without the gps data.

I did wonder a few times how well he was getting to his defensive spots as they picked their way through us fairly easily at times and that is a least partly a function of all team defence being off (eg say a Laurie can't prevent a switch or a lad up option).

I hope, and expect, he'll get another go at the role against the swans.

No I don't accept that Chandler, Laurie and Spargo play a different role. That is my whole point and there is no evidence that they do in the heatmaps or anywhere else AFAIK.  Chandler's heat maps show just as much activity in the densive half as Spargo's or Laurie's.

I totally accept your premise that ANB plays a different role and that is apparent in his heatmap.

Laurie and Chandler are both in the side at the expense of Spargo. 

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10 minutes ago, old55 said:

No I don't accept that Chandler, Laurie and Spargo play a different role. That is my whole point and there is no evidence that they do in the heatmaps or anywhere else AFAIK.  Chandler's heat maps show just as much activity in the densive half as Spargo's or Laurie's.

I totally accept your premise that ANB plays a different role and that is apparent in his heatmap.

Laurie and Chandler are both in the side at the expense of Spargo. 

Sorry old, I'm confused.

Nibbler plays the high half forward role.

As does spargo, when in the team.

And yze said 10 mins before the game that Laurie had come into to the team to play the high half forward role. His exact words. So the same role as nibbla and spargo.

Are you saying Chandler is also playing the high half forward role (which he sort of has been as as I have noted he has been playing a hybrid role to cover spargo)?

And I thought you argued we couldn't bring an additional small forward in, which is where our debate began (ie we didn't need spargo in because we have Chandler - Laurie was spargo).

I 100% agree Laurie is in the team at spargo's expense. Not Chandler though.

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23 minutes ago, old55 said:

I don't care what you call it, Spargo and Chandler play the same role and ANB plays a different role from both of them. It's evident to my eyes and in their heatmaps.

Did you listen to that clip from Daniel hoyne defining the role?

Or the tmac one

It's not what I call it old, it's what the coaches, players and industry call it.

ANB and Spargo (and now Laurire) all play the high half forward role - as defined by the club, not me.

Nibbla might cover more ground, and Spargo/Laurie (like Miers) is more focused on inside 50 kicks, but it is essentially the same role.

Maybe it could be argued Chandler also plays that high half forward role, but i think he is a more traditional goal kicking small forward (though of course gets up the ground - like every single player, no matter what role they play)

In any case, we are not going to come together on this. I think you are wrong and Vicky versa.

Let's move on.

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15 minutes ago, binman said:

Did you listen to that clip from Daniel hoyne defining the role?

Or the tmac one

It's not what I call it old, it's what the coaches, players and industry call it.

In any case, we are not going to come together on this. I think you are wrong(spargo/Laurie play different roles) and Vicky versa.

Let's move on.

I've also heard the term "speed forwards" used by Stafford.  Maybe Spargo is a speed forward like Chandler?

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1 hour ago, old55 said:

I've also heard the term "speed forwards" used by Stafford.  Maybe Spargo is a speed forward like Chandler?

That's right - I have heard Stafford, Yze and some players use the term 'speed forward' for the small forward role that look to apply pressure inside 50 and crumb packs (as well of course getting up and down the ground contributing to all team defence).

They use the term 'speed forwards' to differentiate the role from the other distinct forward roles - KPF and HHF.

And it's a good term because it captures two of the key attributes the speed forward need - power and acceleration from a standing start and speed over 30 - 40 metres (whereas, as TMac notes the high half forward have to be able to run quickly over 150 meters - striding speed - and do this over and over thru the game - and again as Tmac notes this requires diff, and very specific, athletic attributes and strengths).  

Tmac explicitly says in the clip i referenced that Spargo and Nibbla are our high half forwards (and may even mention the distinct small forward role).

Yze said Laurie came into the side to play the high half forward role (ie not the speed forward role - if laurie wasn't selected, Spargo, who was in the squad, would have almost certainly been picked). 

Koz, Chandler (and AMW at Casey) are our speed forwards. 

Using the miers example, at the  the cats he is a HHF and stengle is a speed forward.

There is of course some cross over - its not like the difference between say defenders and forwards for instance.

HHFs still crumb and kick goals and speed forwards still get up and down the ground to help out on all team defence running (but hopefully not so much they they are too gassed to be an effective speed forward).

Edited by binman
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3 hours ago, binman said:

My guess that may not have happened more that 2-3 times.

Probably lost them all and they are probably during our mid season fatigue phase, as we hardly ever lose cp full stop.

Symptom not cause. 

By my records, it's happened 4 times, with a 3-1 win/loss record:

R1: WB (lost contested possessions by 15, clearances by 7): won by 50

R2: Bris (lost contested possessions by 14, clearances by 28): lost by 11

R8: GCS (lost contested possessions by 27, clearances by 6): won by 5

R23: Haw (lost contested possessions by 8, clearances by 9): won by 27

 

We also had a close instance against the Saints:

R17: Stk (lost contested possessions by 8, clearances were level): won by 17

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3 hours ago, layzie said:

That was going to be my next observation but I couldn't find the uncontested possessions for that quarter. Hawthorn seem to do a fair bit of the uncontested mark style which would have meant less opportunity for pressure stats.

Also, do you think after a game like last week it was likely we weren't going to come out all guns blazing with pressure? 

Hawks' uncontested numbers yesterday:

Q1: Possessions: 69, Marks: 37

Q2: Possessions: 51, Marks: 15

Q3: Possessions: 68, Marks: 31

Q4: Possessions: 61, Marks: 25

A clear improvement in limiting their uncontested game in Q2, which I think helped turn the game leading to much improved territory and intercept outcomes and eventually scoreboard impact:

Q1: I50 diff: -4, Intercept diff: -2, Margin: -6

Q2: I50 diff: +9, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +8

Q3: I50 diff: +11, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +11

Q4: I50 diff: +7, Intercept diff: 0, Margin: +14

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4 hours ago, binman said:

I thought they would try to actually - do what they did in the second and crack the hawks, then go into tempo control.

But they couldn’t quite bring it early doors- unsurprisingly given how brutal last weeks game was. The blues also struggled.

The brilliant thing about our run home is the roos and hawks game sere both lower pressure games that the preceding ones meaning we don't have the mutiple back to back high pressure, taxing games the blues and pies have had to push thru.

Even if the Swans game is full on pressure, which it might be but perhaps less than if they were still fighting for 8th and or we were fighting for a top 4 finish, we then have the pre final bye to freshen up.

So from the tough run of lions, creos, yigers hames we went roos (second half low pressure), blues (brutal) , hawks (relativy low pressure), swans (high pressure?) then bye.

If we play the pies they will be coming off the bye too, but geez they'll need it.

Hopefully the bombers will be stung into action and at least try and apply pressure. If so that's 5 or 6 very tough games in a row for the pies. Hard core.

That's us last year.

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2 hours ago, binman said:

That's right - I have heard Stafford, Yze and some players use the term 'speed forward' for the small forward role that look to apply pressure inside 50 and crumb packs (as well of course getting up and down the ground contributing to all team defence).

They use the term 'speed forwards' to differentiate the role from the other distinct forward roles - KPF and HHF.

And it's a good term because it captures two of the key attributes the speed forward need - power and acceleration from a standing start and speed over 30 - 40 metres (whereas, as TMac notes the high half forward have to be able to run quickly over 150 meters - striding speed - and do this over and over thru the game - and again as Tmac notes this requires diff, and very specific, athletic attributes and strengths).  

Tmac explicitly says in the clip i referenced that Spargo and Nibbla are our high half forwards (and may even mention the distinct small forward role).

Yze said Laurie came into the side to play the high half forward role (ie not the speed forward role - if laurie wasn't selected, Spargo, who was in the squad, would have almost certainly been picked). 

Koz, Chandler (and AMW at Casey) are our speed forwards. 

Using the miers example, at the  the cats he is a HHF and stengle is a speed forward.

There is of course some cross over - its not like the difference between say defenders and forwards for instance.

HHFs still crumb and kick goals and speed forwards still get up and down the ground to help out on all team defence running (but hopefully not so much they they are too gassed to be an effective speed forward).

Look we'll have to agree to disagree. I think that Spargo and Chandler have very similar attributes and play very similar roles, you think that Spargo offers something significantly different that enables him to do something significantly different. I haven’t seen any evidence in kms per game, heatmap or time trial results to verify this. There is tracker evidence that Chandler is quicker.

FWIW I think if TMac was currently in the team he'd say that ANB and Chandler are playing those vital roles.

There is no concrete evidence that Stafford was referring to only Kossie and Chandler as speed forwards.

Let's disagree.

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4 hours ago, Deelightful Dee said:

Hawks' uncontested numbers yesterday:

Q1: Possessions: 69, Marks: 37

Q2: Possessions: 51, Marks: 15

Q3: Possessions: 68, Marks: 31

Q4: Possessions: 61, Marks: 25

A clear improvement in limiting their uncontested game in Q2, which I think helped turn the game leading to much improved territory and intercept outcomes and eventually scoreboard impact:

Q1: I50 diff: -4, Intercept diff: -2, Margin: -6

Q2: I50 diff: +9, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +8

Q3: I50 diff: +11, Intercept diff: +4, Margin: +11

Q4: I50 diff: +7, Intercept diff: 0, Margin: +14

Mitchell said in his presser they came in with a plan to deny us the ball, hence the really high uncontested possession and mark numbers in the first. 

My take is we consciously allowed them to play that way in the first because it suited us - the very last thing we wanted was another brutal, energy sapping encounter as we would have still been recovering from last week's epic.

So a bruise free game is exactly what the doctor ordered for us. 

I think that was tactical error by Mitchell, because their chance to beat us was to come at us early. Which is the approach the Suns took against the blues.

Perhaps Mitchell thought that  spreading, chipping it around and forcing us to run and cover would gas us the way it did against the Pies (though they were way more brutal in that match - and went faster in terms of going forward). 

And perhaps he didn't have another option as they were coming off a six day break and their own mini epic.

They also lost their best, most physical player in Jai Newcome and a power forward in Lewis. 

Their drop in uncontested possessions and marks in the second quarter directly correlate with our increased pressure rating (192 - 155).

They could not match us in that quarter for pressure - a 37 diff is nuts (I'd be very surprised if we have had a bigger diff, either way, this season), nor in the third when the pressure ratings diff was 21 (still very big).

Two quarters in 4th gear (with a gear up our sleeves).

That increase in pressure allowed us to play the second and third quaryers and first third of the last quarter on our terms, the dees DNA (as evidenced by CPs, time in forward half, i50s and scores from turnover)

And as you say DD translated to much improved territory and intercept outcomes, and eventually scoreboard impact.

In the last quarter, once we got a 3 goal margin, we dropped back to third gear and allowed them to go back to their chip it around mode - and we did the same thing too for good measure (which i just loved to see).

Our pressure in the last q was 179, but i suspect it was probably only 150 for the last 10 mins (so perhaps 185-190 in the first third of the final quarter).

Very smart coaching from Goody from both a tactical and load management perspective. 

Edited by binman
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Round 23, 2023 MCG - Demons vs Hawks

A decent win given the top 22 team rating was off the season average by a pretty significant 14%. 

Some credit needs to go to the Hawks here as they pushed us for three quarter playing double the number of rookies (12 vs 6) and with an average game differential of 50 games (each player roughly 2.4 seasons behind on average).  As much as it pains me to say it, they appear to be developing and doing pretty well and should be on everyone's radar in 2024 as a rising threat.   

The Hawks must have forgotten how good Rivers is though as he also topped the ratings charts last time we played them in Rnd 9 with a 5.15  This was also his third time at No.1 with his second a 4.95 against the Cats in Rnd 15.  A great bounce back from last year for our young premiership star, coming on leaps and bounds this season.

A fabulous result from Lever, McVee and Melk vs their season average rating, with Melk up a massive 68%.  Nice to see young Roohey maintaining his good form.

Contrast this with the worst result by any player of the season, Kozzy putting in a negative rating of 0.35  The overall numbers summary is as bad as it gets...2 effectives @ 20%, 1 one percenter, 1 mark i50, 2 tackles (1 inside 50), 2 intercepts, 83 meters gained and 5 turnovers.  Seems to be having some big swings in form for some reason.  Hopefully saving his best for finals!

Great result from Nibbler on his 150th with Maxy having a bit of an off day on his milestone vs his usual season standards.

Clarry second week blues and/or under a heavy tag?  45% off his lofty season rating.

Saw some criticism of Tomo's game and that he was subbed as a result, however the numbers would suggest maybe for another reason as he played 81% game time and outscored his season average rating by a significant 10%.  Of course he may not have hit some other factors the coaches are looking at such as defensive 1 v 1 wins etc so the critics may also have been correct.  I'm not saying either way as we can't really know the reasoning without some inside intel.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency  
Disposals Per Goal  26.54
% In50s Goal 21.30
Conversion %

59.10

Hawks

Scoring Efficiency

 
Disposals Per Goal  41.44
% In50s Goal 23.70
Conversion %

60.00

Player Rating Rank Season Rating to Prior Rnd % Change vs Season Rating
T Rivers 4.650 1 3.740 24.33
Jake Lever 4.600 2 3.080 49.35
Jack Viney 4.525 3 3.626 24.79
C Petracca 4.400 4 4.762 -7.60
T Sparrow 3.600 5 2.836 26.94
C Salem 3.325 6 3.075 8.13
A Brayshaw 3.250 7 3.946 -17.64
J McVee 3.125 8 2.237 39.70
A Tomlinson < 81% 3.100 9 2.803 10.60
C Oliver 2.875 10 5.234 -45.07
A N-Bullen 2.850 11 2.456 16.04
S May 2.800 12 3.201 -12.53
J Bowey 2.500 13 2.849 -12.25
J Melksham 2.425 14 1.444 67.94
J V Rooyen 2.175 15 2.181 -0.28
Max Gawn 2.100 16 3.465 -39.39
Ed Langdon 2.075 17 3.154 -34.21
K Chandler 1.825 18 2.354 -22.47
Joel Smith  1.550 19 1.993 -22.23
L Hunter 1.475 20 3.104 -52.48
B Laurie* 1.150 21 1.300 -11.54
J Schache* > 17% 0.150 22 1.375 -89.09
K Pickett -0.350 23 2.238 -115.64
Team Rating 60.53   70.39 -14.01
Top 6 25.10   26.41 -4.96
Bottom 6 8.23   9.74 -15.55

* Played less than two full games in total

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Thanks DD it just shows how good this team really is, when our stars are down the next layer of players lift to new heights to cover the gaps, when we all click together, watch out.!!

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11 hours ago, binman said:

My guess that may not have happened more that 2-3 times.

Probably lost them all and they are probably during our mid season fatigue phase, as we hardly ever lose cp full stop.

Symptom not cause. 

We lost not only CP but UP. Incredible...

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22 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

@WheeloRatings, what’s our W/L record when losing both CPs and clearances this year?

We have lost both CPs and clearances four times this year, against Western Bulldogs (R1), Brisbane (R2), Gold Coast (R8) and Hawthorn (R23), and are 3-1.

RoundName Opposition Clearances CPs Margin
Round 1 Western Bulldogs -7 -15 50
Round 2 Brisbane -28 -15 -11
Round 8 Gold Coast -7 -27 5
Round 23 Hawthorn -9 -8 27

Here is our record since 2018 when losing both:

Season M Win Loss Draw
2018 2 1 1 0
2019 4 0 4 0
2020 2 1 1 0
2021 3 2 1 0
2022 4 2 2 0
2023 4 3 1 0

We are 9-3 when we win both this year:

Clearances CPs M Win Loss Draw
Won Won 12 9 3 0
Won Lost 2 1 1 0
Lost Won 3 1 2 0
Lost Lost 4 3 1 0
Drew Lost 1 1 0 0
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Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 23, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver 5.038 1 5.320 -5.30 1 0
C Petracca 4.745 2 4.456 6.49 2 0
A Brayshaw 3.915 3 3.839 1.98 5 2
T Rivers < 3.782 4 2.423 56.09 18 14
Jack Viney 3.669 5 3.971 -7.61 3 -2
J Jordon > < 3.431 6 3.164 8.44 9 3
Max Gawn 3.389 7 3.643 -6.97 8 1
Steven May 3.181 8 3.971 -19.89 3 -5
Jake Lever 3.152 9 2.703 16.61 14 5
Ed Langdon 3.102 10 3.109 -0.23 11 1
C Salem 3.094 11 3.363 -8.00 7 -4
B Grundy 3.035 12 - - - -
L Hunter 3.026 13 - - - -
A Tomlinson < 2.915 14 2.079 40.21 22 8
T Sparrow 2.874 15 2.665 7.84 16 1
Jake Bowey < 2.831 16 2.856 -0.88 13 -3
H Petty < 2.718 17 2.392 13.63 19 2
J Harmes > 2.670 18 3.082 -13.37 12 -6
M Hibberd > < 2.610 19 2.613 -0.11 17 -2
A N-Bullen 2.474 20 2.688 -7.96 15 -5
K Chandler < 2.327 21 - - - -
Judd McVee 2.277 22 - - - -
B Fritsch < 2.230 23 1.936 15.19 27 4
J V Rooyen 2.181 24 - - - -
K Pickett 2.109 25 2.118 -0.42 21 -4
T McDonald 2.054 26 1.967 4.42 26 0
Ben Brown < 1.941 27 1.762 10.16 29 2
Joel Smith > 1.938 28 2.239 -13.44 20 -8
C Spargo > < 1.886 29 1.981 -4.80 24 -5
B Laurie > < * 1.571 30 - - - -
J Melksham > 1.543 31 1.947 -20.75 25 -6
J Schache * 1.525 32 - - - -
T Woewodin 1.406 33 - - - -
D Turner < * 1.075 34 - - - -
Team Rating 70.26   69.48 1.12    

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

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Melbourne v Sydney (Round 24, 2023)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20232408

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat For Against Diff
Disposal Efficiency 63.9 71.2 -7.3
Kicking Efficiency 58.9 67.0 -8.1
Metres Gained 6145 5729 +416
Inside 50s 58 51 +7
Shots At Goal 30 27 +3
Shots Per Inside 50 51.7 52.9 -1.2
Contested Possessions 160 157 +3
Ground Ball Gets 112 121 -9
Intercepts 79 73 +6
Intercept Marks 15 7 +8
Centre Clearances 10 10 +0
Stoppage Clearances 27 24 +3
Contested Marks 11 13 -2
Marks Inside 50 12 12 +0
Hitouts 40 22 +18
Hitouts To Advantage 8 6 +2
Tackles 79 76 +3
Tackles Inside 50 19 16 +3
Def One On One Loss % 12.5 36.4 -23.9

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter For Against
1 172 182
2 185 199
3 198 214
4 192 193
Match 187 197

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player Pressure
Acts
Pressure
Points
Season
Average*
Clayton Oliver 37 86 59.7
Jack Viney 25 69 56.6
Alex Neal-Bullen 26 63 45.7
Angus Brayshaw 21 48 35.5
Christian Salem 21 44 31.1
Ed Langdon 17 38 28.3
Kysaiah Pickett 16 37 41.7
Tom Sparrow 20 34 43.8
Kade Chandler 16 32 31.4
Joel Smith 12 32 19.4
Christian Petracca 15 28 46.0
Trent Rivers 13 26 23.2
Jacob van Rooyen 10 24 22.2
Daniel Turner 7 21 18.0
Judd McVee 7 20 18.1
Jake Melksham 8 17 16.5
Bayley Fritsch 7 16 18.8
Bailey Laurie 8 16 14.0
Lachie Hunter 8 15 23.7
Max Gawn 8 14 21.6
Jake Bowey 6 11 22.1
Steven May 6 9 14.4
Jake Lever 6 8 15.1

* Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter For Against
1 55% 45%
2 61% 39%
3 43% 57%
4 56% 44%
Match 53% 47%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Category For Against Diff
G B T G B T
Kick-in 0 1 1 0 2 2 -1
Centre Bounce 0 1 1 3 2 20 -19
Stoppage (Other) 3 5 23 1 2 8 +15
Turnover 8 4 52 3 8 26 +26
Category For Against
Match Season Match Season
Kick-in 1 2.5 2 2.4
Centre Bounce 1 11.0 20 8.3
Stoppage (Other) 23 23.8 8 20.4
Turnover 52 53.0 26 41.1

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Category Region For Against
Match Season Match Season
Kick-in D50 1 2.5 2 2.4
Centre Bounce Centre 1 11.0 20 8.3
Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.6 1 2.0
Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.7 0 1.2
Stoppage (Other) Wing 8 12.4 1 6.6
Stoppage (Other) F50 15 8.1 6 10.7
Turnover D50 12 11.9 7 6.2
Turnover Centre 12 7.8 7 6.2
Turnover Wing 20 26.6 11 20.9
Turnover F50 8 6.7 1 7.8
Region For Against
Match Season Match Season
D50 13 15.0 10 10.6
Centre 13 21.6 27 15.6
Wing 28 39.0 12 27.5
F50 23 14.8 7 18.5

Points from defensive half

For Against
Match Season Match Season
19 33.9 14 24.1

Shots at goal

Team Shots G B T Acc.
General Play
Melbourne 17 4 7 31 23.5
Sydney 14 4 4 28 28.6
Set Position
Melbourne 13 7 3 45 53.8
Sydney 13 3 7 25 23.1

Centre Bounce Attendances

  CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 %
Jack Viney 18 82 71.6 74.6
Max Gawn 18 82 62.7 65.5
Clayton Oliver 17 77 79.9 86.5
Angus Brayshaw 13 59 36.1 16.0
Christian Petracca 8 36 61.0 74.6
Tom Sparrow 6 27 44.9 32.2
Jacob van Rooyen 4 18 7.7  
Kysaiah Pickett 2 9 11.6 1.3
Trent Rivers 1 5 3.2 0.0
Lachie Hunter 1 5 0.2 0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 2.3 3.5
Brodie Grundy     54.4 83.7
James Jordon     27.6 0.2
James Harmes     26.7 14.6
Tom McDonald     5.4 0.0
Harrison Petty     0.7 0.0
Josh Schache     0.0 13.8

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

  Ruck
Contests
RC % 2023 % 2022 %
Max Gawn 50 60 55.3 57.8
Jacob van Rooyen 25 30 13.0  
Joel Smith 8 10 1.0 0.0
Christian Petracca 0 0 0.2 0.1
Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.1 0.0
Steven May 0 0 0.1 0.0
Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.1 0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0
Brodie Grundy     47.7 77.4
Tom McDonald     8.9 7.0
Josh Schache     6.2 13.4
Ben Brown     2.3 3.6
Harrison Petty     2.0 0.0

Hitouts

  Ruck
Contests
Hitouts To
Adv.
To Adv. %
(2023)
To Adv. %
(2022)
Max Gawn 50 24 3 30.7 33.6
Jacob van Rooyen 25 15 5 31.5  
Joel Smith 8 1 0 0.0  
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0  
Brodie Grundy       30.4 30.2
Harrison Petty       25.0  
Tom McDonald       25.0 33.3
Ben Brown       0.0 14.3
Josh Schache       0.0 33.3

Opposition hitouts

  Ruck
Contests
Hitouts To
Adv.
Tom Hickey 57 17 5
Hayden McLean 21 4 1
Joel Amartey 5 1 0

 

Expected scores (Champion Data)

85 - 81

 

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Some key stats that showed how we upped our game after the Swans got out to a 17 point lead two thirds of the way through the 3rd quarter. From the 20 min mark of the 3rd quarter:

- We had 19 more contested possessions (71 to 52)

- Recorded 38 tackles (15 coming after the 20 min mark of the 3rd quarter to the end of the 3rd quarter alone)

- 7 more inside 50s (21 to 14)

- Outscored the Swans by 37 (40 to 3)

- Scored 48% of the time we went inside 50 at 1.9 points per entry and held the Swans to scoring 21% of the time they went inside 50 at 0.21 points per entry.

If we play at that level, we'll be hard to stop. It's a matter of how long we can play at that level now that finals are here!

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Round 24, 2023 SCG - Swans vs Demons

A costly win.  We just can't take a trick up forward this season and a sad result for our two boys.  Fritta also yet to be cleared so fingers crossed there.

Clarry coming back into some form just in time?  Not far off his season average against the Swans just pipping Viney for the No.1 rating.

May having a much improved result with a rating only 2% - 3% off his top end season 2021 (3.926) & 2022 (3.971) ratings!  Hopefully a very positive sign for the champ coming into finals.

ANB. Viney, Fritta, McVee & Turner posting some solid results vs their season averages, albeit Disco has no meaningful base having played only one (subbed) match vs the Suns in Rnd 8 to use as a season comparison.

Fabulous result for Laurie matching his average from his few previous entrees in just one quarter of football.

JVR having 5 hit outs to advantage vs Max's 3!  Not a bad effort.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency  
Disposals Per Goal  32.45
% In50s Goal 19.00
Conversion %

50.00

Swans

Scoring Efficiency

 
Disposals Per Goal  51.57
% In50s Goal 13.70
Conversion %

33.30

The attributes of both teams very even across the board...

Average Attributes  
Sydney  Attribute  Melbourne 
187.2cm  Height  186.0cm
86.3kg  Weight  86.0kg
25yr 10mth  Age  25yr 11mth
113.7 Games  115.9

 

Total Players By Games

 
Sydney  Games  Melbourne 
5 Less than 50  7
7 50 to 99  3
4 100 to 149  1
4 150 to 200  9
3 200 or more  3

 

Player Rating Rank Season Rating to Prior Rnd % Change vs Season Rating
C Oliver 4.575 1 5.038 -9.19
Jack Viney 4.500 2 3.669 22.65
C Petracca 3.850 3 4.745 -18.86
S May 3.850 3 3.181 21.03
A N-Bullen 3.800 5 2.474 53.60
B Fritsch 3.550 6 2.230 59.19
J McVee 3.250 7 2.277 42.73
A Brayshaw 3.175 8 3.915 -18.90
Jake Lever 2.675 9 3.152 -15.13
Max Gawn 2.650 10 3.389 -21.81
J Bowey 2.600 11 2.831 -8.16
Ed Langdon 2.100 12 3.102 -32.30
D Turner 2.100 12 1.075 95.35
J V Rooyen 1.975 14 2.181 -9.45
K Pickett 1.950 15 2.109 -7.54
T Rivers 1.825 16 3.782 -51.75
C Salem 1.675 17 3.094 -45.86
T Sparrow 1.550 18 2.874 -46.07
B Laurie > 23% 1.550 18 1.571 -1.34
J Melksham < 59% 1.500 20 1.543 -2.79
Joel Smith  1.250 21 1.938 -35.50
L Hunter 1.100 22 3.026 -63.65
K Chandler 1.050 23 2.327 -54.88
Team Rating 57.05   70.26 -18.80
Top 6 24.13   26.35 -8.44
Bottom 6 8.63   9.29 -7.16

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Team & Player Ratings (H&A) Season 2023 vs Season 2022

Well that's a wrap folks.  Our top 22 ranked players posting a marginal 0.5% gain on last season's rating.

For the 6th year running Clarry takes out the number one mantle!

Ok so he probably won't win any of the weekly vote based industry comps including the Chas and the Bluey but they're based on cumulative outcomes rather than week to week standards when on the park.

It should be noted that prior to his injury Clarry was tracking in line with his 2022 result.  The 6% differential is purely the injury effect since his return in Rnd 22 vs the Blues.

Let's take a look at some of his season stat averages...

14.5 Contesteds (ranked 1st), 16.2 uncontesteds (1st), 20.4 effectives (1st) @ 67.5%,  2 one percenters, 6.6 clearances (1st), 2.4 rebounds (10th), 5.1 inside 50s (3rd), 6.3 tackles (1st) with 1.1 of those inside 50 (4th), 7 score involvements (2nd behind Tracc on 8.3), 438 Meters gained (2nd to Tracc on 451), 4.8 intercepts (9th), 0.5 goals (18th) and 5.7 turnovers (1st)

A great result from Tracc improving on an already impressive 2022 by 5%.  Gus & Viney (to a lessor degree) holding their form nicely throughout the season vs 2022.

Rivers the obvious stand out with a massive 52% gain on 2022.  Tomo & Fritsch also up there.

Salem, Harmes and May of some concern.  Although May trumped the 19% season differential with a big match return to 2022 type rating against the Swans.  Suspect the FD might have managed him conservatively throughout the season in order to ensure he wasn't cooked at any point.  Let's hope he can take that form line into the forthcoming finals campaign.

Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver 5.002 1 5.320 -5.98 1 0
C Petracca 4.707 2 4.456 5.63 2 0
A Brayshaw 3.883 3 3.839 1.15 5 2
Jack Viney 3.707 4 3.971 -6.65 3 -1
T Rivers < 3.696 5 2.423 52.54 18 13
J Jordon > < 3.431 6 3.164 8.44 9 3
Max Gawn 3.350 7 3.643 -8.04 8 1
Steven May 3.213 8 3.971 -19.09 3 -5
Jake Lever 3.131 9 2.703 15.83 14 5
Ed Langdon 3.057 10 3.109 -1.67 11 1
B Grundy 3.035 11 - - - -
C Salem 2.993 12 3.363 -11.00 7 -5
L Hunter 2.939 13 - - - -
A Tomlinson < 2.915 14 2.079 40.21 22 8
Jake Bowey < 2.820 15 2.856 -1.26 13 -2
T Sparrow 2.811 16 2.665 5.48 16 0
H Petty < 2.718 17 2.392 13.63 19 2
J Harmes > 2.670 18 3.082 -13.37 12 -6
M Hibberd > < 2.610 19 2.613 -0.11 17 -2
A N-Bullen 2.532 20 2.688 -5.80 15 -5
B Fritsch < 2.324 21 1.936 20.04 27 6
Judd McVee 2.320 22 - - - -
K Chandler < 2.265 23 - - - -
B Laurie > < * 2.235 24 - - - -
J V Rooyen 2.170 25 - - - -
K Pickett 2.101 26 2.118 -0.80 21 -5
T McDonald 2.054 27 1.967 4.42 26 -1
Ben Brown < 1.941 28 1.762 10.16 29 1
C Spargo > < 1.886 29 1.981 -4.80 24 -5
Joel Smith > 1.863 30 2.239 -16.79 20 -10
D Turner < * 1.825 31 - - - -
J Melksham > < 1.599 32 1.947 -17.87 25 -7
J Schache > * 1.525 33 - - - -
T Woewodin 1.406 34 - - - -
Team Rating 69.86   69.48 0.55    

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

 

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Thanks for your efforts DD I follow these individual stats with much interest, it is great that we have been able to maintain our team rating at the same level as 2022 with Trent Rivers the standout improver. Our forwards are banged up this year but the rest of the team appear to be in better shape than last year (touch wood) heading into the pointy end of the year. 

 

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4 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Team & Player Ratings (H&A) Season 2023 vs Season 2022

Well that's a wrap folks.  Our top 22 ranked players posting a marginal 0.5% gain on last season's rating.

For the 6th year running Clarry takes out the number one mantle!

Ok so he probably won't win any of the weekly vote based industry comps including the Chas and the Bluey but they're based on cumulative outcomes rather than week to week standards when on the park.

It should be noted that prior to his injury Clarry was tracking in line with his 2022 result.  The 6% differential is purely the injury effect since his return in Rnd 22 vs the Blues.

Let's take a look at some of his season stat averages...

14.5 Contesteds (ranked 1st), 16.2 uncontesteds (1st), 20.4 effectives (1st) @ 67.5%,  2 one percenters, 6.6 clearances (1st), 2.4 rebounds (10th), 5.1 inside 50s (3rd), 6.3 tackles (1st) with 1.1 of those inside 50 (4th), 7 score involvements (2nd behind Tracc on 8.3), 438 Meters gained (2nd to Tracc on 451), 4.8 intercepts (9th), 0.5 goals (18th) and 5.7 turnovers (1st)

A great result from Tracc improving on an already impressive 2022 by 5%.  Gus & Viney (to a lessor degree) holding their form nicely throughout the season vs 2022.

Rivers the obvious stand out with a massive 52% gain on 2022.  Tomo & Fritsch also up there.

Salem, Harmes and May of some concern.  Although May trumped the 19% season differential with a big match return to 2022 type rating against the Swans.  Suspect the FD might have managed him conservatively throughout the season in order to ensure he wasn't cooked at any point.  Let's hope he can take that form line into the forthcoming finals campaign.

Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver 5.002 1 5.320 -5.98 1 0
C Petracca 4.707 2 4.456 5.63 2 0
A Brayshaw 3.883 3 3.839 1.15 5 2
Jack Viney 3.707 4 3.971 -6.65 3 -1
T Rivers < 3.696 5 2.423 52.54 18 13
J Jordon > < 3.431 6 3.164 8.44 9 3
Max Gawn 3.350 7 3.643 -8.04 8 1
Steven May 3.213 8 3.971 -19.09 3 -5
Jake Lever 3.131 9 2.703 15.83 14 5
Ed Langdon 3.057 10 3.109 -1.67 11 1
B Grundy 3.035 11 - - - -
C Salem 2.993 12 3.363 -11.00 7 -5
L Hunter 2.939 13 - - - -
A Tomlinson < 2.915 14 2.079 40.21 22 8
Jake Bowey < 2.820 15 2.856 -1.26 13 -2
T Sparrow 2.811 16 2.665 5.48 16 0
H Petty < 2.718 17 2.392 13.63 19 2
J Harmes > 2.670 18 3.082 -13.37 12 -6
M Hibberd > < 2.610 19 2.613 -0.11 17 -2
A N-Bullen 2.532 20 2.688 -5.80 15 -5
B Fritsch < 2.324 21 1.936 20.04 27 6
Judd McVee 2.320 22 - - - -
K Chandler < 2.265 23 - - - -
B Laurie > < * 2.235 24 - - - -
J V Rooyen 2.170 25 - - - -
K Pickett 2.101 26 2.118 -0.80 21 -5
T McDonald 2.054 27 1.967 4.42 26 -1
Ben Brown < 1.941 28 1.762 10.16 29 1
C Spargo > < 1.886 29 1.981 -4.80 24 -5
Joel Smith > 1.863 30 2.239 -16.79 20 -10
D Turner < * 1.825 31 - - - -
J Melksham > < 1.599 32 1.947 -17.87 25 -7
J Schache > * 1.525 33 - - - -
T Woewodin 1.406 34 - - - -
Team Rating 69.86   69.48 0.55    

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

 

It's good to try to use some metrics to get player ratings but I think you need to refine the model if McVee and ANB are scoring a lot less than Jordon and Harmes.  Melksham at 1.599 is an aberration too based on his actual game winning contributions.  You seem to be giving KPBs like May and Lever some boost which is good, but small backs and small forwards are not being rewarded sufficiently.

Edited by old55
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