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17 minutes ago, old55 said:

It's good to try to use some metrics to get player ratings but I think you need to refine the model if McVee and ANB are scoring a lot less than Jordon and Harmes.  Melksham at 1.599 is an aberration too based on his actual game winning contributions.  You seem to be giving KPBs like May and Lever some boost which is good, but small backs and small forwards are not being rewarded sufficiently.

Thanks 55

Yes, i've covered this aspect a few times over the years.

Botton line, when viewing the ratings keep in mind to try and compare like with like (position and / or type of role played) where possible.

If you do that it will hopefully make  a bit more sense.  No g'tees of course!

Even then, a ratings system based on only publicly available data will struggle to capture the subtle nuances of the various positions and roles to some degreee.

But using the above method is a reasonable course of direction that will hopefully provide a rough guide as to form over one season vs a prior season amongst a particular category of player and / or over a selected block of games from the same season eg;  the last 5 weeks vs the previous 5.  Finals ratings vs H&A etc.

Hiope that helps a little ✌🏼

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5 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks for your efforts DD I follow these individual stats with much interest, it is great that we have been able to maintain our team rating at the same level as 2022 with Trent Rivers the standout improver. Our forwards are banged up this year but the rest of the team appear to be in better shape than last year (touch wood) heading into the pointy end of the year. 

 

Yw DZ.  A well worn cliche' but we'll just have to take things one week at a time.

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Super excited and terrifyingly nervous for the game this Thu. So much hinges on this, but I think we're in a very good spot. Here's a preview from my perspective:

Oppo watch

The Pies are the best attacking team in the league over the season as well as over last 5 rounds when considering how well they convert I50s to points. Over the season, they have also been reasonably strong in winning the I50 differential (6th) and preventing opposition teams scoring once they get it inside 50 (4th). However, these two areas have fallen away markedly in the last 5 weeks to 12th and 13th respectively, not to mention their contested possession game dropping from a middling 9th to a struggling 15th.

Keys to the game

The first key to the game will be the contest: the Dees won this by 19 in their 4 point win over the Pies in Round 13, leading to a solid I50 differential of 10. This meant we didn't have to be awesome in attack and prevented our defence from being under too much pressure. The second key is our defence: we restricted the Pies to 1.27 points per I50 entry (one of their lowest for the year) when they average 1.76 over the season). This comes down to holding our structure in defending their ball movement and it will be interesting to see if we employ the same press up method to disrupt their ball movement as we did earlier in the year. 

A summary of key stats (green highlight = Dees advantage, no highlight = Pies advantage). Dees have the advantage 5 to 1 both across the season and over the last 5 games.

image.png.fa0fdfca39cd15ab339412b57717e9db.png

Another interesting element to this game is our ability to run out games. We should be at our endurance peak now and we probably weren't against the Pies in Rd 13 (losing the last quarter by 2, altough poor accuracy didn't help 2.7 to 3.3). The Pies don't seem to be running out games as well as they were earlier in the season:

Dees' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +28, +4, -4, +14, +25 (average of +13, won 4, lost 1)

Pies' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +2, -6, -16, -12, +5 (average of -5, won 2, lost 3).

A different and objective view of what must go right for the Dees to win in the finals (forward line performance) can be found here:

https://theshinboner.com/2023/09/01/2023-afl-finals-dossier-melbourne-demons-shinboner-analysis/ 

What are others' thoughts?

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56 minutes ago, Deelightful Dee said:

Super excited and terrifyingly nervous for the game this Thu. So much hinges on this, but I think we're in a very good spot. Here's a preview from my perspective:

Oppo watch

The Pies are the best attacking team in the league over the season as well as over last 5 rounds when considering how well they convert I50s to points. Over the season, they have also been reasonably strong in winning the I50 differential (6th) and preventing opposition teams scoring once they get it inside 50 (4th). However, these two areas have fallen away markedly in the last 5 weeks to 12th and 13th respectively, not to mention their contested possession game dropping from a middling 9th to a struggling 15th.

Keys to the game

The first key to the game will be the contest: the Dees won this by 19 in their 4 point win over the Pies in Round 13, leading to a solid I50 differential of 10. This meant we didn't have to be awesome in attack and prevented our defence from being under too much pressure. The second key is our defence: we restricted the Pies to 1.27 points per I50 entry (one of their lowest for the year) when they average 1.76 over the season). This comes down to holding our structure in defending their ball movement and it will be interesting to see if we employ the same press up method to disrupt their ball movement as we did earlier in the year. 

A summary of key stats (green highlight = Dees advantage, no highlight = Pies advantage). Dees have the advantage 5 to 1 both across the season and over the last 5 games.

image.png.fa0fdfca39cd15ab339412b57717e9db.png

Another interesting element to this game is our ability to run out games. We should be at our endurance peak now and we probably weren't against the Pies in Rd 13 (losing the last quarter by 2, altough poor accuracy didn't help 2.7 to 3.3). The Pies don't seem to be running out games as well as they were earlier in the season:

Dees' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +28, +4, -4, +14, +25 (average of +13, won 4, lost 1)

Pies' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +2, -6, -16, -12, +5 (average of -5, won 2, lost 3).

A different and objective view of what must go right for the Dees to win in the finals (forward line performance) can be found here:

https://theshinboner.com/2023/09/01/2023-afl-finals-dossier-melbourne-demons-shinboner-analysis/ 

What are others' thoughts?

Some random reflections on above:

Oppo watch

  • The Pies high ranking in points per I50s is reflection of their method - really fast transition from the back half disrupts their opponents ability to get their zone set and creates space inside 50, leading lanes for their forwards and more one on ones and therefore 'efficiency' inside 50
  • When on, the Pies also run in waves and get players ahead of the ball and create free options inside 50 - again this supports high conversion of inside 50s to scores
  • Conversely our low ranking for points per I50s is reflection of a key element of our method -  win time in forward half, and when we cant trap it inside 50 or score set up a wall, win it back and a get a reentry
  • When we do we are invariably kicking into a super congested forward area with 30 plus player squeezed inside 50 and therefore we are not as 'efficient'
  • It's huge worry for the pies that their ability to get inside 50 and stopping oppos score once in inside 50 has fallen away so dramatically in the last 5 weeks - same goes for the CP numbers
  •  In fact their drop off is really clear in the table - compare their season ranking to their ranking for the last 5 games - in all but one stat (points scored inside 50) they really fall away - we drop a bit too, but not by much and improve our i50 ranking 
  • The Pies numbers form the last 5 games are hugely inflated by their win over the bombers, in particular their scores per inside 50 - that was just a ridiculous low pressure game and the bombers were hopeless in terms of their defensive running allowing the Pies just to waltz it down the ground at will
  • Take that game out and their numbers are even more alarming 

Keys to the game

  • Contest and deefence have bene the buzz words of late in terms describing our game and you've nailed that with the the key stats
  • i'd add it is critical we win the inside 50 diff, time in forward half and scores from turnover differential metrics
  • I reckon you've nailed it DD on what i consider to the the critical factor - we are running out games better.
  • it is just so easy to see and so different to where we were at last year - and the problem for the pies is that there is simply no way to turn that around at this point in the season. The fitness levels are the fitness levels
  • The fitness issue is key in any game, but particularly in this one as the  Pies optimal game plan is but on super fitness levels and their winning run built on being 'stronger for longer' than their opponents - but they have lost that relative advantage completely, partic over us  
  • The other data that supper the theory we are really fit and close to our optimal shape is our pressure numbers in the last quarters have remained high - for example we had close to season high rating of 214 in the last quarter against the blues
  • I don't know where the pies sit on that front, but i'll bet London to a brisk that in the last 6 weeks their pressure ratings falls away late in quarters and in the last quarter
  • The last theirs of the Pies season looks so similar to ours last year - injuries to key players (and i'll bey we hear post season about players carrying injuries), struggling to run out games and the method looking diff
  • On the method looking different an example is that rather than control the tempo early doors, we looked to jump the oppo last year and go out really hard and then hang on.  When playing their best footy the Pies dominate the first and last quarters, which isn't happening atm
  • The other similarity is how tough their run has been with so many taxing games late in the season
  • And interestingly we both had big wins in the last game of the season - us against the Lions and the Pies over the Bombers
  • I hoped against hope the Lions win was a sign we were back to our best fitness wise, but it was a mirage as we completely ran out of puff in the last quarters of both finals
  • And in hindsight the signs were there - we scored 13 first half goals , but could only manage 5 in the second half
  • I'm sure the Pies fans are hoping their dominant win over the bombers is a sign they are up and running, but the score line is eerily similar to ours against the lions
  • In that game the Pies blitzed in the first half, scoring 12 goals but could only manage 4 goals in the second half
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6 hours ago, binman said:

 

  • I reckon you've nailed it DD on what i consider to the the critical factor - we are running out games better.
  • it is just so easy to see and so different to where we were at last year - and the problem for the pies is that there is simply no way to turn that around at this point in the season. The fitness levels are the fitness levels

Were they loading with the top position all but sewn up? That could explain their inability to run out games.

If not we could really steamroll them.

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52 minutes ago, Wrecker46 said:

Were they loading with the top position all but sewn up? That could explain their inability to run out games.

For a whole bunch of reasons, i would say almost certainly not.

Brenton Sanderson was asked this question on whateley the Thursday before round 23 (a game they got smashed by the Lions, in large part becuase of all their outs).

From 6:14 to 8:33:

 

 

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1 hour ago, binman said:

For a whole bunch of reasons, i would say almost certainly not.

Brenton Sanderson was asked this question on whateley the Thursday before round 23 (a game they got smashed by the Lions, in large part becuase of all their outs).

From 6:14 to 8:33:

 

 

That's fascinating if only to show that Whatley knows full well about player load management and even saw it with his own team last year. I no longer watch AFL media, but has he at all referenced this on 360 this year?

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9 hours ago, binman said:

For a whole bunch of reasons, i would say almost certainly not.

Brenton Sanderson was asked this question on whateley the Thursday before round 23 (a game they got smashed by the Lions, in large part becuase of all their outs).

From 6:14 to 8:33:

 

Thanks. Sanderson says it's his personal view that clubs shouldn't do it but sports scientists might disagree. I don't think he's been at Collingwood since the FIGJAM era.

Interesting Selwood and subsequently Scott admitted Geelong did it last year but they didn't have the drop off over the same period Collingwood have this year.

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18 hours ago, Deelightful Dee said:

Super excited and terrifyingly nervous for the game this Thu. So much hinges on this, but I think we're in a very good spot. Here's a preview from my perspective:

Oppo watch

The Pies are the best attacking team in the league over the season as well as over last 5 rounds when considering how well they convert I50s to points. Over the season, they have also been reasonably strong in winning the I50 differential (6th) and preventing opposition teams scoring once they get it inside 50 (4th). However, these two areas have fallen away markedly in the last 5 weeks to 12th and 13th respectively, not to mention their contested possession game dropping from a middling 9th to a struggling 15th.

Keys to the game

The first key to the game will be the contest: the Dees won this by 19 in their 4 point win over the Pies in Round 13, leading to a solid I50 differential of 10. This meant we didn't have to be awesome in attack and prevented our defence from being under too much pressure. The second key is our defence: we restricted the Pies to 1.27 points per I50 entry (one of their lowest for the year) when they average 1.76 over the season). This comes down to holding our structure in defending their ball movement and it will be interesting to see if we employ the same press up method to disrupt their ball movement as we did earlier in the year. 

A summary of key stats (green highlight = Dees advantage, no highlight = Pies advantage). Dees have the advantage 5 to 1 both across the season and over the last 5 games.

image.png.fa0fdfca39cd15ab339412b57717e9db.png

Another interesting element to this game is our ability to run out games. We should be at our endurance peak now and we probably weren't against the Pies in Rd 13 (losing the last quarter by 2, altough poor accuracy didn't help 2.7 to 3.3). The Pies don't seem to be running out games as well as they were earlier in the season:

Dees' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +28, +4, -4, +14, +25 (average of +13, won 4, lost 1)

Pies' last 5 4th quarter margins (rounds 20 to 24): +2, -6, -16, -12, +5 (average of -5, won 2, lost 3).

A different and objective view of what must go right for the Dees to win in the finals (forward line performance) can be found here:

https://theshinboner.com/2023/09/01/2023-afl-finals-dossier-melbourne-demons-shinboner-analysis/ 

What are others' thoughts?

so out poor number for points scored per inside 50 is a reflection of our greater number of inside 50s rather than poor kicking ie not converting inside 50s to scores

This problem has cost us many games over the last few seasons years and needs to be fixed pronto!

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17 hours ago, binman said:

Some random reflections on above:

Oppo watch

  • The Pies high ranking in points per I50s is reflection of their method - really fast transition from the back half disrupts their opponents ability to get their zone set and creates space inside 50, leading lanes for their forwards and more one on ones and therefore 'efficiency' inside 50
  • When on, the Pies also run in waves and get players ahead of the ball and create free options inside 50 - again this supports high conversion of inside 50s to scores
  • Conversely our low ranking for points per I50s is reflection of a key element of our method -  win time in forward half, and when we cant trap it inside 50 or score set up a wall, win it back and a get a reentry
  • When we do we are invariably kicking into a super congested forward area with 30 plus player squeezed inside 50 and therefore we are not as 'efficient'
  • It's huge worry for the pies that their ability to get inside 50 and stopping oppos score once in inside 50 has fallen away so dramatically in the last 5 weeks - same goes for the CP numbers
  •  In fact their drop off is really clear in the table - compare their season ranking to their ranking for the last 5 games - in all but one stat (points scored inside 50) they really fall away - we drop a bit too, but not by much and improve our i50 ranking 
  • The Pies numbers form the last 5 games are hugely inflated by their win over the bombers, in particular their scores per inside 50 - that was just a ridiculous low pressure game and the bombers were hopeless in terms of their defensive running allowing the Pies just to waltz it down the ground at will
  • Take that game out and their numbers are even more alarming 

Keys to the game

  • Contest and deefence have bene the buzz words of late in terms describing our game and you've nailed that with the the key stats
  • i'd add it is critical we win the inside 50 diff, time in forward half and scores from turnover differential metrics
  • I reckon you've nailed it DD on what i consider to the the critical factor - we are running out games better.
  • it is just so easy to see and so different to where we were at last year - and the problem for the pies is that there is simply no way to turn that around at this point in the season. The fitness levels are the fitness levels
  • The fitness issue is key in any game, but particularly in this one as the  Pies optimal game plan is but on super fitness levels and their winning run built on being 'stronger for longer' than their opponents - but they have lost that relative advantage completely, partic over us  
  • The other data that supper the theory we are really fit and close to our optimal shape is our pressure numbers in the last quarters have remained high - for example we had close to season high rating of 214 in the last quarter against the blues
  • I don't know where the pies sit on that front, but i'll bet London to a brisk that in the last 6 weeks their pressure ratings falls away late in quarters and in the last quarter
  • The last theirs of the Pies season looks so similar to ours last year - injuries to key players (and i'll bey we hear post season about players carrying injuries), struggling to run out games and the method looking diff
  • On the method looking different an example is that rather than control the tempo early doors, we looked to jump the oppo last year and go out really hard and then hang on.  When playing their best footy the Pies dominate the first and last quarters, which isn't happening atm
  • The other similarity is how tough their run has been with so many taxing games late in the season
  • And interestingly we both had big wins in the last game of the season - us against the Lions and the Pies over the Bombers
  • I hoped against hope the Lions win was a sign we were back to our best fitness wise, but it was a mirage as we completely ran out of puff in the last quarters of both finals
  • And in hindsight the signs were there - we scored 13 first half goals , but could only manage 5 in the second half
  • I'm sure the Pies fans are hoping their dominant win over the bombers is a sign they are up and running, but the score line is eerily similar to ours against the lions
  • In that game the Pies blitzed in the first half, scoring 12 goals but could only manage 4 goals in the second half

Some insightful reflections Binman

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1 hour ago, Kent said:

so out poor number for points scored per inside 50 is a reflection of our greater number of inside 50s rather than poor kicking ie not converting inside 50s to scores

This problem has cost us many games over the last few seasons years and needs to be fixed pronto!

Our greater number of inside 50's has seen us finish in the top 4 the last 3 years and win a premiership. I don't know it is a problem we need to fix.

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9 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

That's fascinating if only to show that Whatley knows full well about player load management and even saw it with his own team last year. I no longer watch AFL media, but has he at all referenced this on 360 this year?

I thought that was fascinating too. 

He hasn't mentioned it on 360 as far I know. Funny to hear him feign ignorance.

The damn wall is starting to break. Loading will be fully analysed and discussed in the next couple of years.

With the selwood comment he wreferencing selwood's mid season comments last  season about their loading in the bye period.

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9 minutes ago, Wrecker46 said:

Our greater number of inside 50's has seen us finish in the top 4 the last 3 years and win a premiership. I don't know it is a problem we need to fix.

No, it's not - though the more skilled kicks we can squeeze into the team the more snaps under pressure (because of the congestion inside 50) will go thru.

An irony of our model is against non contenders we smash them for time in forward half, say 60-40 and inside 50s so it is actually harder to be 'efficient' in terms of scores per inside 50 (because of the congestion inside 50).

Against the better teams we might only win time in forward half 55-45 and so there is less reentries and less congestion inside 50. And greater efficiency.

 

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8 minutes ago, Wrecker46 said:

Melkshams pattern of leading deep in the pockets and then converting near on every time from the boundary really complemented the model by both creating space and keeping our coversion rate up. He will be sorely missed.

Totally agree.

In fact, ironically, given all the rubbish about our supposed connection and efficiency issues, his ability to convert and take his chances hasn't really been highlighted as a big loss.

It's all been about his ability to negate the oppos best intercept marking defender.

And you make a good point. As I've heard melksham say, when it is crowded inside 50, like all forwards  he leads to the empty space that is available and that the oppo give- and that's the pockets when it is congested. 

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5 minutes ago, binman said:

Totally agree.

In fact, ironically, given all the rubbish about our supposed connection and efficiency issues, his ability to convert and take his chances hasn't really been highlighted as a big loss.

It's all been about his ability to negate the oppos best intercept marking defender.

And you make a good point. As I've heard melksham say, when it is crowded inside 50, like all forwards  he leads to the empty space that is available and that the oppo give- and that's the pockets when it is congested. 

Luckily Fritsch is back, who is also a very smart player who knows where to lead and can nail shots on goal from the pocket.

Likewise Tmac, who may be slow as the day is long, but he knows how to make and find space and he knows how to kick goals. 

Smith is just chaos.

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2 hours ago, Wrecker46 said:

Thanks. Sanderson says it's his personal view that clubs shouldn't do it but sports scientists might disagree. I don't think he's been at Collingwood since the FIGJAM era.

Interesting Selwood and subsequently Scott admitted Geelong did it last year but they didn't have the drop off over the same period Collingwood have this year.

Sanderson was referring to a pre finals additional heavy loading phase, not the standard mid season loading phase.

Which is what selwood was talking about in the comments they referenced (it was a mid season on ground, post match interview).

The query about loading was whether the pies poor form was a result of late season loading, not mid season.

There is no way sport scientists, for all the reasons Sanderson says he wouldnt do it, be recommending teams do a heavy block of additional (ie on top of game and normal training loads) training loads on the eve of the finals. For one thing the increased risk of sof tissue injury might mean players miss the first week of finals.

Like us in 2021 and again this year, the cats at the corresponding point in the season (eve of finals) were humming, running out games and playing their best footy because they got their program right.

The pies would have followed a similar program, ie a mid season 6-8 week loading phase, with a taper onto the finals. If it worked they should have been playing their best footy over the last 4 rounds or so (when history shows premiers are playing their best footy).

But they haven't been. Like us last year, something has not worked.

Like Sanderson says there is no way teams want to be playing with 'heavy legs' going into finals. And that is how they look.

With a two week break, the pies will be as fresh as they have been for months. So we can expect them to be at their running best in the first half and first half of the 3rd quarter.

Bur if I'm right about their conditioning they will struggle late in quarters and gassed in the last.

I really think the pies need to grab a break on us to geat us. If they don't have a 2-3 goal leaf at 3 quarter time they are toast.

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24 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Luckily Fritsch is back, who is also a very smart player who knows where to lead and can nail shots on goal from the pocket.

Likewise Tmac, who may be slow as the day is long, but he knows how to make and find space and he knows how to kick goals. 

Smith is just chaos.

Good points

Smith is chaos, but is also a good kick for goal.

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3 minutes ago, binman said:

Good points

Smith is chaos, but is also a good kick for goal.

You think we play Smith, Tmac and Fritsch all together this week?

It can work as Smith is good defensively and at ground level, whereas Tmac and Fritsch are not. 

I am not sold on Smith, unless we give him a role on Moore

Team selection tonight will be fascinating. We are all analysing it, an in the end it'll be Tmac for Melksham. 

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1 hour ago, Wrecker46 said:

Our greater number of inside 50's has seen us finish in the top 4 the last 3 years and win a premiership. I don't know it is a problem we need to fix.

so you are happy with 8 goals 18 Behinds All they have to do is kick straight

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8 minutes ago, binman said:

 

I really think the pies need to grab a break on us to geat us. If they don't have a 2-3 goal leaf at 3 quarter time they are toast.

We have shown repeatedly that we can easily close a 2-3 goal gap, and the Pies don't really have the defensive game plan to shut a 3 goal lead down for long periods to win. Unless it is pouring with rain late in the game, a 2-3 goal lead to the Pies won't phase us. Whereas we can sit on a 3 goal lead for 25 minutes and just make them sweat. 

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5 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

You think we play Smith, Tmac and Fritsch all together this week?

It can work as Smith is good defensively and at ground level, whereas Tmac and Fritsch are not. 

I am not sold on Smith, unless we give him a role on Moore

Team selection tonight will be fascinating. We are all analysing it, an in the end it'll be Tmac for Melksham. 

Yep, I think smith will be in the 22 and he Tmac and Fritsch will all play forward.

And I reckon Smith might go to Murphy and look to negate his intercept marking 

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Just took a deeper dive into the pressure factor stats that @WheeloRatings has posted here for Dees games since round 6 and, after breaking these stats into three groups of six games for the year, found some interesting insights to back up @binman's loading theories and aiming to peak later in the year:

From rounds 6 to 11, we started strong with an average of 190 in Q1 but fell to 172 and 175 in the middle quarters. Our Q4 pressure factor averaged 187 with an overall match pressure factor of 181. We averaged 8.3 points more than our opponents in Q4 and 0.5 less overall.

From rounds 12 to 18 (no game Rd 14), we started slow with an average of 178 in Q1, imroved to 181 in Q2 and peaked at 188 in Q3. However, our Q4 pressure factor fell to an average of 171 with an overall match pressure factor of 179. We averaged 9 points less than our opponents in Q4 and 3.1 less overall.

From rounds 19 to 24, we improved our starting pressure with an average of 180 and gradually increased it to 185 in Q2 and Q3. We then peaked with our Q4 pressure factor averaging 188 with an overall match pressure factor of 184. We averaged 1.1 points more than our opponents in Q4 and 2.7 less overall.

To note our presure factor extremes, our highest pressure factor in a quarter was in Round 15 vs Cats, Q2 with 224 (we scored 2.7 to 1.3) with our lowest pressure factor in a quarter coming in Round 12 vs Blues, Q4 with 148 (we both scored 1.2). Out highest overall pressure game was Round 22 vs Blues with 200 whlist our lowest pressure games came in Rounds 6 and 18, both with 168.

Based on the above Q4 improvement in the last 6 games, if we are (hopefully) in front or close at 3/4 time, I'm feeling pretty confident we'll have petrol in the tank to hold on or run over the top of the Pies tomorrow night!

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So I had some time on my hands and using Fox Footy's Premiership window metrics, I've collected the past 6 weeks For/Against Scores and this is what it currently looks like. 

One thing I can say with certainty, that Collingwood are no where near the premiership window over the last 6 weeks. 

Port is the best team over the last 3 weeks, however we're the best team over the last 6 weeks. The only thing that's dragged us down the last 3 weeks is our points scored. To be honest, this is my main concern going into tomorrow night. Will we kick a big enough score?

image.png.ca040a9df0dee8d84d7c0d96b2da3c7d.png

 

This is the graph for 3 weeksScreenShot2023-09-06at3_44_16pm.thumb.png.2385d450be9a11bc4ba92458d6c423c0.png

While this is the graph for the past 6 weeks

ScreenShot2023-09-06at4_02_12pm.thumb.png.7bfa8980fc69a2a8c57b99ea94b6f028.png

Edited by At the break of Gawn
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