Today Brisbane tomorrow Carlton

B: Gardiner, Andrews, Starcevich

HB: Rich, Adams, K.Coleman

C: McCluggage, Dunkley, Bailey

HF: McCarthy, Hipwood, Rayner

F: Cameron, Daniher, Gunston

FOLL: McInerney, Neale, Zorko

IC: Berry, Answerth, McKenna, Ashcroft

Reserves

B: Madden, Payne, Prior

HB: Lester, Michael, Wilmot

C: Tunstill, Robertson, Fletcher

HF: Lohmann, Smith, Ah Chee

F: Cockatoo, Fullarton, B.Coleman

IC: Lane, Sharp, McDowell-White, Brain

Don't think I care.

They'll be a contender next year with the additions of Dunkley, Gunstan and Ashcroft. Clearly their list has been bolstered and they would be aiming for a grand final next year.

It's still a bit hard to reconcile that this mob beat us with 1 and a half quarters of scintillating footy, only to disgrace themselves a week later.

 

Edited December 1, 20222 yr by Bring-Back-Powell

Would also been keen to know what you mean by tomorrow Carlton?

Edited December 1, 20222 yr by Bring-Back-Powell

53 minutes ago, drysdale demon said:

Don't think I care.

Well it's not for everyone just thought some people would be interested in the best 44 for every team.

Dev Robertson will be annoyed with the addition of Dunkley and Ashcroft. A WA boy he’d be a walk-up-start in the Eagles midfield right now. 

1 hour ago, WERRIDEE said:

Today Brisbane tomorrow Carlton

B: Gardiner, Andrews, Starcevich

HB: Rich, Adams, K.Coleman

C: McCluggage, Dunkley, Bailey

HF: McCarthy, Hipwood, Rayner

F: Cameron, Daniher, Gunston

FOLL: McInerney, Neale, Zorko

IC: Berry, Answerth, McKenna, Ashcroft

Reserves

B: Madden, Payne, Prior

HB: Lester, Michael, Wilmot

C: Tunstill, Robertson, Fletcher

HF: Lohmann, Smith, Ah Chee

F: Cockatoo, Fullarton, B.Coleman

FOLL: Fort, Lyons, Mathieson

IC: Lane, Sharp, McDowell-White, Brain

Forgot the Followers in the reserves.

Edited December 1, 20222 yr by WERRIDEE

Maybe just one big Werridees Non Melbourne's best 44 thread might be the way to go rather than 17 different ones?

Brisbane are going to be a very tough side though. Surely the deepest list in the comp.

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

They'll be a contender next year with the additions of Dunkley, Gunstan and Ashcroft. Clearly their list has been bolstered and they would be aiming for a grand final next year.

It's still a bit hard to reconcile that this mob beat us with 1 and a half quarters of scintillating footy, only to disgrace themselves a week later.

 

Agree! That is a very decent side. Needs a little tweaking given how important Bailey is. The only potential weakness is the forward line with Daniher and Hipwood. They can both do great things when on song or be effectively absent when not.

Joe Daniher can always be relied on to provide some comic relief. Lions worth watching for that reason alone

Edited December 1, 20222 yr by BDA

I have them making the GF at this point. Dunkley adds a lot to that midfield, ready for a big time tilt. 

Marcus Adams ruled out for potentially the season.

5 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Marcus Adams ruled out for potentially the season.

that he's still displaying concussion symptoms some five months on is...not good

Again @WERRIDEEI think your starting 18 is very similar to mine, though obviously Adams is replaced by Payne and it's a toss of the coin for me between the 34 year old Zorko with a dodgy hammy and the the 31 year old Jarryd Lyons who played every H&A game last year but was overlooked for the finals.  Effectively they've both been replaced in the midfield by Dunkley and will play limited minutes through the middle anyway barring injury. 

So the draw: The Lions play Us, Freo, Collingwood, GCS, Adelaide, and Saints twice.  Based on last years form they should easily account for the last two but the Suns should be a more difficult proposition this season.  They have four tough games to start the year against Port (although admittedly the Lions are the Power's bogey side), Us, the Doggies and Pies.  The rest of the draw seems pretty favourable  and they play a lot of last years finalists (Swans, Tigers, Cats, Freo) at home.  They've almost a certainty to play finals (currently on the third line of the betting for the premiership at $8.00 on sportsbet) and many have them locked into the top four, but I'm still doubtful.

1. Brisbane for mine are the quintessential faux tough side - they beat up on sides at home, but they tend to fold under real physical pressure.  Which isn't to say that they don't have some footballers I admire very much.  Lachie Neale, Charlie Cameron, the big O, Starcevich are all fighters that give their all. I'd put McStay and Robinson in that category too, but they're gone.  Of course this   might sound like sour grapes after last years final series, where they beat us when we've had the wood on them and managed to win at the MCG for the first time in 7 years, but the counter argument to that was their two finals wins were against Richmond without Prestia (narrowly) and of course our issues at the end of the season were well known.  Yes this really does sound like a Melbourne supporter cracking the sads and my opinion means SFA, but the expectations of the footy world are pretty high for the Lions to do it again and not revert to type like when they won only 1 final in 6 appearance in the previous three seasons. I'm betting on them reverting to type and here's why.

2. The best defensive sides in the competition usually play off for a place in the GF.  I expect this year it will be pretty much the same as last year in terms of the three stand out defensive teams - namely Us, Geelong and Freo.  Brisbane were 10th.  Here's the rub they just lost Marcus Adams for the year with concussion.  He was an unspectacular, but solid defender and until he was concussed in rd 21 last year had only missed two games for them- how much worse will they be defensively without him?  His likely replacement Jack Payne is tall enough (197cms) but  has 27 senior appearances including 12 last year (so not a regular) which places a lot of heavy emphasis on Harris Andrews being the general back there.  It's a responsibility I don't think he has shouldered well - but more on him later.  The third tall gets covered by the 192cm Gardiner who tries hard, but he's undersized*, the only other options are the similarly undersized Ryan Lester or Darragh Joyce the ex Saints defender whose been thrown a rookie life line.  The rest of the defence looks solid and they have good (at time excellent) users of the ball back there but there would be concerns on the ability of the ageing legs of Zorko and Rich and the risk of injury.   Starcevich and Coleman are both very, very solid.  Connor McKenna is unknown, but his final year before he left Essendon wasn't flash and to me he's all sizzle and no steak as a defender. In short the issue with the Lions defence wasn't using the ball coming out of the fifty it was the ability to stop scores once it got in there - that hasn't been fixed in terms of personnel from what I can see, in fact it's likely to be worse. 

3.  Scoring hasn't been the Lions problem in the last few seasons, but again the issue for me is who kicks the goals for them.  Ostensibly their main man in attack is Charlie Cameron, he's been their leading goal kicker for the last four seasons which begs the question for me as to where the hell are Daniher and Hipwood?  For the record only in 2021 did one of them (Joe) kick more than 40 goals in a season for the Lions.  They appear to be the mercurial tall forwards who can turn it on, but rarely do it consistently - they certainly aren't dominating like key forwards.  Maybe that will be Jack Gunston, the three time leading goal kicker at the Hawks if his back holds up.  But Jack is no Dan McStay who also didn't kick many goals for the Lions but he did do a power of work up and down the lines a la Tommy 'Carnivore' McDonald.  He isn't a like for like replacement.  That puts the heat on one of Daniher or Hipwood to shoulder that burden - and let my bias shine through even more brightly here - I doubt either of them has the ticker for the work load required - not that I've seen anyway.

4. The additions of Dunkley, Ashcroft and Fletcher will make the Lions midfield stronger, but the issue is when.  We see that sometimes it takes at least a season even for experienced players to gell with a new side.  No pressure on the first year draftees either to step in and do what Nick Daicos did ...  Dunkley found himself playing more HFF at the Dogs at the end of last year, he's brave and gets first hands on the ball (260 contested possessions last year).  Along with Neale (400 ), McCluggage (216) he makes a more than adequate replacement for Lyons(205) who finds himself relegated.  I like Dunkley and the Lions like that he runs both ways - but he does butcher the ball by foot.   So here's another interesting stat... Neale and McCluggage were the top two for disposals last year - followed by the 33 year old Rich, the 31 year old Lyons and the 34 year old Zorko - Lyons was also 10th in the competition in terms of clearances (Neale was 2nd and Clarrie was of course 1st) so it might be premature to right Lyons off just yet.  Rich and Zorko make sense they are wonderful kicks of the footy, but like I said before... father time.  I like Robertson as an option.

5.  The positive for me with the Lions is that I like their ruck division, the Big O and Fort should be able to play more time together with five on the bench now.  They are both imposing ruckman, and they have adequate coverage.  Big O is similar to Max in that he wins a lot of clearances and contested possessions himself and he covers the ground fairly well.  I think they're one of very few sides that won't be as worried as others over the thoughts of how the combat the tap brothers. 

6.  Their most important player. - Given their defensive issues it has to be Harris Andrews. It's a massive problem if he goes down - i've already discussed their lack of cover for defensive talls - the problem I have with Harris is that he seems to have very little lateral deviation when he plays at the moment.  He's stuck on tram lines so against more mobile players he's just not the same AA defender we saw a few years ago, but he does organise their defence - which is probably why he looks distracted at times allowing his direct opponent to slip away.  I saw signs that he was improving these issues towards the back end of last season - but I think he's even more critical than Lachie Neale to their fortunes because without him the hole in their defensive dyke becomes a massive structural failure.

Finally the assumption that I need to challenge for myself is that the Lions will revert to type and will continue to falter against teams that bring the heat and continue to struggle to win away from the Gabbatoire which makes a top 2 finish essential for them to have any realistic shot at a premiership.  Yes, they've improved in the midfield (at least on paper at this stage), but I just can't get past that their defence has been their achilles (and let's not forget against Geelong in the Prelim they got pantsed) and will actually be worse this year than in previous years.  Premierships are usually won by one of the best three defensive teams and that aint the Lions.  I think they could easily be in the top four, but for me I'm tipping them to finish just outside.

 

 

* yes I know Adams was 192 cms as well, but he was a very good one on one defender who used his body well -  he'll be missed. 

Edited February 13, 20232 yr by grazman

On 12/1/2022 at 6:36 PM, Roger Mellie said:

Agree! That is a very decent side. Needs a little tweaking given how important Bailey is. The only potential weakness is the forward line with Daniher and Hipwood. They can both do great things when on song or be effectively absent when not.

Backline us still their Achilles heal. Mark my words unless they change (tweak perhaps) their method if defending it will still be opened up like we did to them 3 times last year. 

Keep it up Grazman love the analysists.

6 minutes ago, 58er said:

Backline us still their Achilles heal. Mark my words unless they change (tweak perhaps) their method if defending it will still be opened up like we did to them 3 times last year. 

I think Daniher is a burden. I like Hipwood and Bailey is a gun.

Just now, WERRIDEE said:

I think Daniher is a burden. I like Hipwood and Bailey is a gun.

Could be but I watch them when not down fir Dees games and they are lethal at home. 
Yes Hipwood will be big this year as he will be fully fit after 2021 injury ( same as Tommo will surprise us all this year for same reason). Ran away from Lever in that last Quarter in the Demi and moved as he had not for 2 years. Will be his best year yet. 

8 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Bailey is a gun.

Bailey is important because he gives them pace.  Without him they're slow through the middle of the ground - Dunkley for Lyons doesn't exactly balance the equation either.  Zorko and Rich as good as they are at kicking it,  don't cover ground quickly -Coleman is the counterweight and maybe McKenna helps address that as well, but it's a big question mark on him.  

 

9 hours ago, 58er said:

Backline us still their Achilles heal. Mark my words unless they change (tweak perhaps) their method if defending it will still be opened up like we did to them 3 times last year. 

That comment was before they lost Adams

Again, love your work @grazman. I thought Dunkley might balance the toughness ledger a little. I really like Payne - there is a lot of potential/talent there but I see him as still a little raw and prone to the odd brain fart. I have to agree with your backline assessment, particularly without Adams. I still find Hipwood and Daniher to be potential liabilities when they either don't show up or crack the sads/wobblies. Having Gunston could make all the difference.

1 hour ago, Roger Mellie said:

That comment was before they lost Adams

Nothing has changed with Adams not available it still makes their defence worse.

I am commenting and posting an opinion on the Lions defence after watching it for the last 4 years since they returned to the Finals.  Nothing other than Coleman in the team has solved their style of defence.  He is a very good disposer rather like Salem for us. 

Bris will be a top 3 side this year, but there list changes have not really addressed their fundamental issues. Their backline will be very leaky, especially without Adams. And their midfield are still front runners. Maybe i hate them for knocking us out last year, but i still don't see much difference from them this year. 

I reckon they'll come of age this year. Zorko no longing leading them will certainly help.

They are the second seed behind us imo

54 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I reckon they'll come of age this year. Zorko no longing leading them will certainly help.

They are the second seed behind us imo

I think it's a big step forward without Zorko at the helm. He is Captain Faux Tough, but has this been confirmed yet? I haven't seen it anywhere