The Run Home

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Our form line is eerily similar to the dogs of last year who if you recall fell off the cliff in the last couple of rounds. We all know how that story goes.

There has to be a bit of souls searching done now, not end of the season when it’s all too late. Not saying an Akermanis style interrogation, but some good honest constructive feedback.  This nonsense of not panicking and staying calm works to an extent but we have been asleep at the wheel for most of the season and need a reality check. No passengers,  no one way running. Need a solid 4q intensity.

Lose this week and may as well shut up shop and get ready for an early preseason. Big call, I know and I’ll get the odd facepalm, but you need to build form and confidence and that needs to be in the form of wins against good sides. Apart from the Lions who have we really beaten this year? 

Many on here compare us to last year, we ares till 2nd and yada yada yada, but our record against top 8 sides was impeccable. This year it’s embarrassing. 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,305]

3 hours ago, layzie said:

Do you win flags with the form of our last 6 weeks?

We did last year

[spirit of norm smith 16,589]

AFL WEBSITE - Sarah probably is not a Dees supporter or even watched Saturday night !!! Very optimistic 

 

Melbourne

52 points (13 wins, five losses) 128.8 per cent
Melbourne now slips four points adrift of top spot after its loss to the Western Bulldogs, with Brisbane's win and Fremantle's draw meaning its hold on top four is tenuous. The clash against the Dockers has suddenly become even more vital to the Dees' second-chance aspirations. Melbourne should have the firepower to see off Collingwood, Carlton and Brisbane, but stranger things have happened, particularly in clashes against the Pies - Sarah Black

[layzie 34,013]

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

We did last year

Our form has been a fair bit off the middle period of last year. I know there was a lull but we never went 3 from 6 and in reality it's 3 from 8 so it's not like last year but that's just my take. 

Edit: We didn't go 3 from 6, we went 2.5 from 6, it's easy to forget and I apologise. Still feels a little different though.

Edited July 24, 2022 by layzie
Got facts straight

[deanox 9,989]

16 minutes ago, layzie said:

Our form has been a fair bit off the middle period of last year. I know there was a lull but we never went 3 from 6 and in reality it's 3 from 8 so it's not like last year but that's just my take. 

Edit: We didn't go 3 from 6, we went 2.5 from 6, it's easy to forget and I apologise. Still feels a little different though.

We actually went 4.5/9 if you stretch it out as well. We are currently 3/8, so win next week make it 4/8 and it is pretty close 

[Demon17 5,203]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

AFL WEBSITE - Sarah probably is not a Dees supporter or even watched Saturday night !!! Very optimistic 

 

Melbourne

52 points (13 wins, five losses) 128.8 per cent
Melbourne now slips four points adrift of top spot after its loss to the Western Bulldogs, with Brisbane's win and Fremantle's draw meaning its hold on top four is tenuous. The clash against the Dockers has suddenly become even more vital to the Dees' second-chance aspirations. Melbourne should have the firepower to see off Collingwood, Carlton and Brisbane, but stranger things have happened, particularly in clashes against the Pies - Sarah Black

This quote from an AFL site commentary is laughable.

Firepower - are you kidding?  Clearly never watched a Dees game this year.

[layzie 34,013]

31 minutes ago, deanox said:

We actually went 4.5/9 if you stretch it out as well. We are currently 3/8, so win next week make it 4/8 and it is pretty close 

We legit went 4.5 from 9! 

It's funny how everything looks good when you remember it. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

I have us winning 1 of the last 4 against with that win being against Carlton. Sure, we're capable of winning more but our record against the top echelon is poor. 

My projected top 8:

Geelong       18-4

Brisbane      16-6

Sydney        16-6

Collingwood  16-6

Fremantle    15-6-1

Melbourne 14-8

WB             13-9

Carlton     13-9

Week 1 - Dogs at the G

Week 2 - Travel to Sydney or Brisbane (if we win week 1)

Week 3 - MCG prelim against Geelong or Pies (if we win week 2)

Edited July 24, 2022 by Bring-Back-Powell

[titan_uranus 25,045]

Holding on and getting the win on Saturday would have been huge. Largely, it would have meant we don't have to read posts about how we might miss the finals.

To miss the 8 we have to lose all four of our matches - no one is passing us on 14. Then either the Dogs have to beat Geelong in Geelong and Fremantle (and the other two), or St Kilda has to beat Geelong in Geelong and Brisbane and Sydney (and another game), or Richmond (whose only win in the last five weeks has been against West Coat) has to beat Brisbane and Port in Adelaide and Essendon (and one more).

If you genuinely think that is more likely than the opposite (i.e. we win just one game or each of those sides drops just one game), you might as well give up following football as it must be impossible for you to enjoy it.

As to how the run home will play out, I like our chances against each of our opponents for varying reasons. I doubt we'll win all four, and the second consecutive six-day break into the Fremantle game with them on an extra day break hurts, but I also think we'll have learnt some lessons from the first game and we hopefully won't get a mid-game injury to a key player forcing a reshuffle. Carlton are flakey and have back-to-back road trips prior to their game against us, Collingwood is IMO the worst 13-5 side the competition has ever seen, and we've beaten Brisbane comprehensively the last three times we've played them.

However, this round was as bad as it gets for us with all of the other top 8 sides winning (Fremantle's draw is effectively a win when comparing them to us, as we had the percentage buffer over them). Essendon and Gold Coast holding on would have been enormous for us and would have increased the prospects of us making top 4 even if we go 2-2.

[old55 23,703]

14 hours ago, Demonsone said:

Yes we are good side but the reality is we keep given up 20+ point leads and have lost 4 games in the same fashion

We will be going in as underdogs against all the remaining games against top 8 teams & will be lucky to win 1-2 of them based on current form.

 

The odds against Freo are even and if we beat them in Perth we'll be favourites in the last three. So no.

[loges 6,767]

Did the ladder predictor with us losing every game, really can't see us missing the 8. Some panicking going on here.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,246]

Ladder predictor shows we would finish either 2nd or 3rd winning two games depending on other results.

Just have to find a way to win!

Holding out hope we can get a similar run as the end of last year, but not confident now.

The lack of pressure and ability to win clearances is disgraceful atm with a midfield so strong.

Need to change it up, add a bit more variety.

[old dee 23,872]

17 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Christ. 

Anyone who thinks we're likely to go 0-4 are delusional. 

We should be winning two. And I'm hopeful we can win three. 

We're a bloody good side, just need to get going. 

No more injuries please. 

JD it is not a word I use but one could say the same thing about your comment above. We have been hit seriously by injuries after a dream run last year. Even some who have returned from injury  are playing IMO at less than 100% fitness. We have also been worked out by opposition teams, they have developed ways to beat us and they know that if they keep at it we will crack. I also don't see the all playing for the team like we saw last year. In spite of all the talk to the contrary there seems to be some discontent in  the team. Is it Jackson and Brayshaw not re signing? I don't know but something is amiss. WE are not playing well and have serious injuries to important players IMO we will struggle to win more than one of the last four and zero four is not an impossibility. Every team we play from here is in good form, we could not beat a team who is not even in the top eight on Saturday. Freo in Perth - could not beat them on the G. Pies at the G - they are finding ways to win and beat us a few weeks ago. Carlton at the G - playing better than us but this one is 50/50. Lions at their home ground unless our form improves this is doubtful especially if they are playing for a high finish. I seriously doubt we will need to worry about getting a seat for the GF

 

[old dee 23,872]

2 hours ago, old55 said:

The odds against Freo are even and if we beat them in Perth we'll be favourites in the last three. So no.

I think they are in Freo's favour they took us apart a few weeks ago and our form has drooped since then.

[rpfc 28,779]

We don’t have to find a win, we have to find form.

I don’t care if we limp into 4th; it will be straight sets if we don’t actually find the form, and apply the effort without the footy, we showed at the end of last year.

So lose as many as you like trying to get that discipline and defensive intensity back…

[old dee 23,872]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Holding on and getting the win on Saturday would have been huge. Largely, it would have meant we don't have to read posts about how we might miss the finals.

To miss the 8 we have to lose all four of our matches - no one is passing us on 14. Then either the Dogs have to beat Geelong in Geelong and Fremantle (and the other two), or St Kilda has to beat Geelong in Geelong and Brisbane and Sydney (and another game), or Richmond (whose only win in the last five weeks has been against West Coat) has to beat Brisbane and Port in Adelaide and Essendon (and one more).

If you genuinely think that is more likely than the opposite (i.e. we win just one game or each of those sides drops just one game), you might as well give up following football as it must be impossible for you to enjoy it.

As to how the run home will play out, I like our chances against each of our opponents for varying reasons. I doubt we'll win all four, and the second consecutive six-day break into the Fremantle game with them on an extra day break hurts, but I also think we'll have learnt some lessons from the first game and we hopefully won't get a mid-game injury to a key player forcing a reshuffle. Carlton are flakey and have back-to-back road trips prior to their game against us, Collingwood is IMO the worst 13-5 side the competition has ever seen, and we've beaten Brisbane comprehensively the last three times we've played them.

However, this round was as bad as it gets for us with all of the other top 8 sides winning (Fremantle's draw is effectively a win when comparing them to us, as we had the percentage buffer over them). Essendon and Gold Coast holding on would have been enormous for us and would have increased the prospects of us making top 4 even if we go 2-2.

Last year we did not care what anyone else did as we won games. This year even the talk of what we need other teams to do shows our level of ability this year.

[Demon17 5,203]

2 hours ago, loges said:

Did the ladder predictor with us losing every game, really can't see us missing the 8. Some panicking going on here.

Absolutely we can. Did it also with us not winning again.

Dogs lose to the cats but win their last 3 which is very much possible, then dogs get 8th on % ahead of us on 9th. The nightmare is if Dogs beat cats then we are in trouble needing to win 2 more games to keep clear, not just 1.

If we beat freo this Friday then we are completlly safe under any scenario.

Lets hope this thread is redundant at 11.00pm friday night.

 

[Macca 17,034]

Not that I believe that the following scenario will happen, but I'm quite prepared for a run at the big prize from an Elimination final onwards (too many things need to happen for us to miss the finals altogether)

We'd be the real danger in the race if the above was to occur

So once you get your head around the worst case scenario position, an optimistic view from that position isn't too bad at all

Realistically I see 1-3 wins from our last 4 games ... so it probably won't be 0-4 or 4-0.  We are not playing that poorly to not win any of the last 4 nor are we playing well enough to win all 4

If we make it hard for ourselves by not securing the double chance, so be it.  Everything is a challenge anyway so we might just have a more diificult challenge ... a team still needs to win 3 finals to win the flag

Edited July 25, 2022 by Macca

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

2 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Absolutely we can. Did it also with us not winning again.

Dogs lose to the cats but win their last 3 which is very much possible, then dogs get 8th on % ahead of us on 9th. The nightmare is if Dogs beat cats then we are in trouble needing to win 2 more games to keep clear, not just 1.

If we beat freo this Friday then we are completlly safe under any scenario.

Lets hope this thread is redundant at 11.00pm friday night.

 

Even if we went 0-4 and Dogs went 3-1 but overtook us on percentage, one of the following would still need to happen for us miss finals:

Richmond would need to go 4-0 and beat all of Brisbane (MCG), Port (AO), Hawthorn (MCG) and Essendon. Possible I guess but would be a tall order.

OR

St Kilda would need beat all of Hawthorn, Geelong (GMHBA), Brisbane and Sydney. I'd have St Kilda at a 1% chance of achieving that.

If we ended the season 0-5 we'd probably have very little business being in the finals in all honestly.

 

[old55 23,703]

42 minutes ago, old dee said:

I think they are in Freo's favour they took us apart a few weeks ago and our form has drooped since then.

Of course you'd think that, because if doom is in any way possible then you'll embrace it fervently.

At the time I posted both Freo andd MFC were at $1.92 for the win, right now it's Freo $1.98 and MFC $1.86.

https://www.afl.com.au/fixture?Competition=1&CompSeason=43&MatchTimezone=MY_TIME&Regions=2&ShowBettingOdds=1&GameWeeks=20&Teams=1&Venues=13#byround

 

[loges 6,767]

32 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Absolutely we can. Did it also with us not winning again.

Dogs lose to the cats but win their last 3 which is very much possible, then dogs get 8th on % ahead of us on 9th. The nightmare is if Dogs beat cats then we are in trouble needing to win 2 more games to keep clear, not just 1.

If we beat freo this Friday then we are completlly safe under any scenario.

Lets hope this thread is redundant at 11.00pm friday night.

 

Of course we can but highly unprobable . losing every game is also extremely doubtful but feel free to panic

[loges 6,767]

55 minutes ago, old dee said:

I think they are in Freo's favour they took us apart a few weeks ago and our form has drooped since then.

Freo have only won 2 of their last 5

[old dee 23,872]

4 minutes ago, old55 said:

Of course you'd think that, because if doom is in any way possible then you'll embrace it fervently.

At the time I posted both Freo andd MFC were at $1.92 for the win, right now it's Freo $1.98 and MFC $1.86.

https://www.afl.com.au/fixture?Competition=1&CompSeason=43&MatchTimezone=MY_TIME&Regions=2&ShowBettingOdds=1&GameWeeks=20&Teams=1&Venues=13#byround

 

Bookies got it wrong on Saturday so the above odds prove nothing. it constantly amuses me that if you say something that people don't want to hear it is called negative. anyway Go Dees

[old dee 23,872]

11 minutes ago, loges said:

Freo have only won 2 of their last 5

Actually 2.5 which at this point is as good as 3.

[spalding 1,128]

At some point, if we are to win this thing, I think we will need to beat Geelong at the MCG in September.

May as well do it in Week 1 of the the finals from 4th. Then the cats will probably have a 1st Semi versus one of WB, Tigers, Carl or Pies (none of which they would be comfortable about), and then an away prelim to one of Brisbane, Freo, or Sydney.

We can then wait for our Preliminary final opponent (most likely an interstate team - of which the most concerning would probably be Sydney),