The Run Home

[Deenooos_ 647]

18 minutes ago, Glorious Day said:

Gotta call it as I see it. We’ve had an absolutely blessed run with injuries. Had a few players out here and there earlier in the season, and a few banged up, but we’ve basically been full strength for over a month now, with only TMac out of our best 22. It’s not exactly like TMac is one of our AA players either, albeit he’s important to the team’s structure.

That being said, missing the top 4 would really be a massive underachievement and questions would need to be raised. Yes, the fixture is flawed (ie Geelong getting two wins for free due to double-ups against North and WCE). Carlton are also getting a bit heckled at the moment, but they’ve got 1/3 of their list out, and were not reigning premiers.

I expect us to win our last two and finish 2nd (getting enough % to finish higher than Sydney). We will then be at the same position as last year really, home finals right through.

My reasoning for this is our form over the last two weeks. We win that Collingwood game 9 times out of 10. Despite looking at issues we need to fix (like anyone does after a loss), if we got over the line, we’d be lorded for such a powerful performance. The ultimate result was a massive abnormality and here’s hoping it proves to be a massive wake up call that wasn’t too late.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good points. Although it would seem we are at "full strength" right now, it is very different from last year. Alot of our players who have been injured: Salem, Lever, Hibberd, Langdon, Gawn, Jackson, JJ, Oliver, Petty have all struggled to be at 100% upon returning, some still not fully fit imo, they are just not performing and haven't regained confidence in their game.

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by Deenooos_

[bobby1554 1,244]

We have lost our dare. Players are second guessing and there is panic creeping in. Where is that Max Gawn who would float around the ground marking everything. Where is that Christian Petracca who took a Grand Final by the scruff of the neck and shook it till it was his. Where is that wave like explosiveness from the centre. Where is that impenetrable wall of defence. Where is that manic forward pressure. That’s what I want to see on the run home. But I suspect I won’t. We have put too much pressure on ourselves by declaring the back to back in front of us at the G. The other contenders can smell the kill, and I reckon Carlton are a big chance, Cripps or not.

[Deenooos_ 647]

I agree it was stupid to tout around and let everyone know “we want to go back to back” so publicly, it has not helped. Maybe the club should have remained humble. It is obvious that the goal of every team after a flag is to do it again but that goal should be kept internal imo.

Although things could have been handled differently, there’s no denying we’re still very good. We should take care of Carlton comfortably.

[DemonWA 3,934]

20 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

Where is that Christian Petracca who took a Grand Final by the scruff of the neck and shook it till it was his. Where is that wave like explosiveness from the centre. Where is that impenetrable wall of defence. Where is that manic forward pressure. That’s what I want to see on the run home. But I suspect I won’t. 

Petraccas game on GF day was as good as he has ever played. Also the waves from the centre were a hallmark of the Prelim and GF only imo.  I feel like people over rate our 2021 form due to 2 absolutely stratospheric performances at the pointy end. 

[titan_uranus 25,014]

28 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Petraccas game on GF day was as good as he has ever played. Also the waves from the centre were a hallmark of the Prelim and GF only imo.  I feel like people over rate our 2021 form due to 2 absolutely stratospheric performances at the pointy end. 

Funny, I feel like people underrate our 2021 by arguing it was a fluke or came off the back of 2-4 incredible performances. 

Our entire 2021 season was phenomenal. If anything, people forget how good we were pre-bye because they focus on the finals. 

[layzie 33,796]

I think one of the reasons for our slight drop this year is because last year was so phenomenal and incredibly difficult to reach those heights again. The losses we had were more often than not backed up by bounce back wins. If you were designing an ideal premiership season that one would come mighty close.

 I hate making these kinds of excuses but the fact is if we pinch one or 2 more of these games we really should have won then the narrative is different. 

[dl4e 5,851]

We are struggling to play out 4 quarters of footy. Mental fatigue. 

[Wodjathefirst 2,632]

One game at a time. Focus on Carlscum and Carlscum only for this week.

Worry about next week, next week

GO DEES!!!

[Demon17 5,188]

1 hour ago, DemonWA said:

Petraccas game on GF day was as good as he has ever played. Also the waves from the centre were a hallmark of the Prelim and GF only imo.  I feel like people over rate our 2021 form due to 2 absolutely stratospheric performances at the pointy end. 

Agreed.  Malcolm Blight's view was that a team needed to peak at Prelim time, the trick being to get there first.

He used a ' minutes to midnight '  clock as an illustration to the Crows teams under him. 1998 was a good example, did not much in finals till PF day and the rest is history.

The clue was however that even though Crows finished 5th, they had the highest % by a long way of the Eight in 123%, and way ahead of any other finalsist which then showed out in later finals. with big wins.

I agree with Goody that the signs are there of substantial improvement over the past mongth despite the flaws and win /loss record.

I would fear the Dees in a final as an oppo supporter for the reasons above that you note about the capacity of Trac and Oliver and gang knowing what's needed on the day.

[DemonWA 3,934]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Funny, I feel like people underrate our 2021 by arguing it was a fluke or came off the back of 2-4 incredible performances. 

Our entire 2021 season was phenomenal. If anything, people forget how good we were pre-bye because they focus on the finals. 

Don't disagree that the whole 2021 was phenomenal, but I thought the way we attacked during the prelim and grandfinal was something different altogether 

[DubDee 25,849]

Did the ladder predictor for this round if the favourites win.  Going to be a massive last round for top 4 and top 8.

Lion v Dees and Blues/Pies are HUGE games needless to say. Top 2 and top 4 on the line in one match

Geelong

17 4 0 137.7

Melbourne

15 6 0 127.7

Sydney

15 6 0 126.6

Brisbane Lions

15 6 0 124.0  

Collingwood

15 6 0 105.6

[IRW 1,387]

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Did the ladder predictor for this round if the favourites win.  Going to be a massive last round for top 4 and top 8.

Lion v Dees and Blues/Pies are HUGE games needless to say. Top 2 and top 4 on the line in one match

Geelong

17 4 0 137.7

Melbourne

15 6 0 127.7

Sydney

15 6 0 126.6

Brisbane Lions

15 6 0 124.0  

Collingwood

15 6 0 105.6

They need to wallop Carlton to get % clear of Sydney.

2nd is still on,still unlikely

[DubDee 25,849]

The two most likely scenarios are:

• play Sydney either home or away based on % (if we win both games) finish 2nd/3rd
• Play Tigers finish 6th (if we lose 1 or both games)

Good news is Carlton are a real chance to miss finals on percentage if we beat them

Outlier - praying for a miracle - The Saints have 2 huge games and are playing for a finals spot.  if they win one or both it is massive for us

[layzie 33,796]

7 minutes ago, DubDee said:

The two most likely scenarios are:

• play Sydney either home or away based on % (if we win both games) finish 2nd/3rd
• Play Tigers finish 6th (if we lose 1 or both games)

Good news is Carlton are a real chance to miss finals on percentage if we beat them

Outlier - praying for a miracle - The Saints have 2 huge games and are playing for a finals spot.  if they win one or both it is massive for us

I don't rule the Saints totally out this week. Unlikely but I'd give them a go.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

The optimism in me has us playing Sydney at the MCG in week 1 in a qualifying final, with Collingwood facing the toughest assignment possible first up in the form of Geelong.

The pessimist in me has us playing Richmond at the MCG in a week 1 elimination final. Then a date with Brisbane in a GABBA semi final if we get past RIchmond.

So much revolves around the Sydney/Collingwood result.

[DubDee 25,849]

Easy to focus on our average form, but the Lions have been similar.  4-4 in the last 8 games including:

• losing to the Tigers when 40pts up
• narrowly beating the Suns
• losing to the bombers
• getting smashed by us

they are in average form especially in their midfield. play away to saints and then us.  Lions could easily be the ones that finish 6th

[titan_uranus 25,014]

6 hours ago, DubDee said:

The two most likely scenarios are:

• play Sydney either home or away based on % (if we win both games) finish 2nd/3rd
• Play Tigers finish 6th (if we lose 1 or both games)

Good news is Carlton are a real chance to miss finals on percentage if we beat them

Outlier - praying for a miracle - The Saints have 2 huge games and are playing for a finals spot.  if they win one or both it is massive for us

6 hours ago, layzie said:

I don't rule the Saints totally out this week. Unlikely but I'd give them a go.

St Kilda stink, but one thing to bear in mind is that Brisbane are on a 5-day break going into tomorrow night's game after playing in 20+ degree conditions in Brisbane. St Kilda have the extra day off.

It shouldn't matter, as Brisbane have no business losing to St Kilda at this point of the season, but if you want an upset, there's at least something to work with here.

4 hours ago, DubDee said:

Easy to focus on our average form, but the Lions have been similar.  4-4 in the last 8 games including:

• losing to the Tigers when 40pts up
• narrowly beating the Suns
• losing to the bombers
• getting smashed by us

they are in average form especially in their midfield. play away to saints and then us.  Lions could easily be the ones that finish 6th

Not only this, but Carlton this week was the first top 8 side they'd beaten since Round 7, and only the third top 8 side they've beaten all year (Collingwood in Round 5 and Sydney Round 7 the other two).

Lost to Geelong, Fremantle, us and Richmond.

Their double up games this season are us, St Kilda, GC, GWS and Essendon. That has to be up there with the softest set of double up games for any side this year.

[Roost it far 8,263]

We won't lose another game this year

Back to back baby!!

 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,209]

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The optimism in me has us playing Sydney at the MCG in week 1 in a qualifying final, with Collingwood facing the toughest assignment possible first up in the form of Geelong.

The pessimist in me has us playing Richmond at the MCG in a week 1 elimination final. Then a date with Brisbane in a GABBA semi final if we get past RIchmond.

So much revolves around the Sydney/Collingwood result.

I'd rather play Pies in the QF over the PF if it comes to that. Last week still fresh in the players minds and they know they have the double chance so won't be as nervous about losing to them (if that makes sense).

Sydney worry me because they are smartly coached and always play us tight, I don't think we've had a comfortable win against them since we shellacked them under Bailey.

[Roost it far 8,263]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'd rather play Pies in the QF over the PF if it comes to that. Last week still fresh in the players minds and they know they have the double chance so won't be as nervous about losing to them (if that makes sense).

Sydney worry me because they are smartly coached and always play us tight, I don't think we've had a comfortable win against them since we shellacked them under Bailey.

Totally agree regarding Sydney, really don't want to play them in the finals. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

1 minute ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Sydney worry me because they are smartly coached and always play us tight, I don't think we've had a comfortable win against them since we shellacked them under Bailey.

We have a 2-10-1 record over Sydney since that brilliant day under Bailey.

Needless to say we struggle big time against Sydney as you’ve pointed out above.

We often go in as favourites and lose to them (see 2018, 2020 and 2022)

[Dr. Gonzo 24,209]

4 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We have a 2-10-1 record over Sydney since that brilliant day under Bailey.

Needless to say we struggle big time against Sydney as you’ve pointed out above.

We often go in as favourites and lose to them (see 2018, 2020 and 2022)

The two wins would be last year when we scraped home and at the scg in 2019 our first win of the season. Slim pickings, I just envision Papley giving us headaches.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Dr. Gonzo

[layzie 33,796]

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We have a 2-10-1 record over Sydney since that brilliant day under Bailey.

Needless to say we struggle big time against Sydney as you’ve pointed out above.

We often go in as favourites and lose to them (see 2018, 2020 and 2022)

That's gotta be one of the crappier records of the last decade going round.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,388]

7 hours ago, layzie said:

I don't rule the Saints totally out this week. Unlikely but I'd give them a go.

Saints rolled the Lions late last year in Brisbane by 32 points. Then earlier this year the Lions led by 3 points at 3/4 time before going on to win by 23 points. 

[layzie 33,796]

Well there you go, they can do it again!