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With sore bodies and carried injuries I don’t reckon we can win from outside the top 4. So Friday, everything is on the line

Edited by DubDee
I’m dumb
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I think Friday night will define our premiership chances. If we get top 4 I can almost see us making a prelim and anything can happen.

If we lose and finish 6th, I can easily see Richmond rolling us week 1. Their game is in top shape.

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Just looking at how hard the second half of the seasons fixture has panned out for the top eight teams. It’s quite interesting to see the differences between the clubs. 
Including rd 11 and next weeks games,

Geelong will have played just 3 of 12 games against current top 8 teams.

Swans 4 / 12

Brisbane, Tigers and Collingwood 5 / 12

Fremantle 6 / 12

Carlton 7 / 12

Melbourne 9 / 12

Now I know we had an easier first half of the season but I think it highlights while Geelong are looking very good they have had a very soft run particularly given their home ground advantage which they lose come finals time. 
 

Just looking at how hard our second half has been I have probably been a bit harsh on us overall. Don’t get me wrong I think we have plenty to work on but I actually don’t think where that far off our best. If we win this week we will give ourselves a massive chance at going back to back. 

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Massive massive game this week 

Win and we probably play Sydney (either at SCG or if we get enough percentage then at the MCG) 

Loss and we probably drop to 6th and would play at the MCG v Richmond. 
 

It’s crunch time. Finals have already begun. This is like a double chance round playing Lions at the Gabba  (which sick bastard gave us this draw)

Simply though we have ourselves to blame. As this is the cost of the two losses to the Dogs and the Pies … both games that we should have won.  

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On 8/14/2022 at 10:15 PM, ANG13 said:

Just looking at how hard the second half of the seasons fixture has panned out for the top eight teams. It’s quite interesting to see the differences between the clubs. 
Including rd 11 and next weeks games,

Geelong will have played just 3 of 12 games against current top 8 teams.

Swans 4 / 12

Brisbane, Tigers and Collingwood 5 / 12

Fremantle 6 / 12

Carlton 7 / 12

Melbourne 9 / 12

Now I know we had an easier first half of the season but I think it highlights while Geelong are looking very good they have had a very soft run particularly given their home ground advantage which they lose come finals time. 
 

Just looking at how hard our second half has been I have probably been a bit harsh on us overall. Don’t get me wrong I think we have plenty to work on but I actually don’t think where that far off our best. If we win this week we will give ourselves a massive chance at going back to back. 

They showed a similar metric last night (on the couch I think), but from round 12 to now, with Geelong, Carlton and Swans only playing top 8 sides 3 times. Coincidentally, they are the 3 sides with long winning streaks!

Also, I believe two of Melbourne's games against non top 8 sides were Bulldogs and Port; not sure of the other; which makes their effort incredible . Then consider % and the Dee's performance has been even more remarkable!

Edited by Ungarieboy
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On 8/14/2022 at 8:59 PM, DubDee said:

With sore bodies and carried injuries I don’t reckon we can win from outside the top 4. So Friday, everything is on the line

I'm with you. I reckon in another season with a better set of circumstances injury wise, personnel wise, JVR being more ready wise we would have a better chance from winning outside top 4. I think this year would be a bridge too far.

Do or die this Friday night.

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Not sure why people are wanting Collingwood to lose.

If we win, it won't really matter as we will be top 4 and most likely playing Sydney.

But if we lose, it will only be better for Carlton to beat Collingwood if either Freo lose to the Giants or Sydney lose to the Saints by about 10 points more than our loss (either of which is unlikely).

Assuming that doesn't happen, then a Carlton win means we will finish 5th and face a potential back-to-back semi-final and preliminary final interstate (should we make it that far). That is likely to be Freo in a semi in Perth then Brisbane or Sydney in an away prelim.

Alternatively, if we lose but Collingwood win, we finish 6th but then only face one interstate final (semi against Sydney or Brisbane away and then prelim v Cats or Pies at the G should we make it that far).

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On 8/14/2022 at 9:04 PM, BDA said:

I think it would be a miracle if anyone won from outside the 8

The eights been changed by the afl after tge h an a if I recall something about Essendon and certain substances. 

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3 hours ago, layzie said:

I remember Eddie Mac saying last week that a virus was ripping through Collingwood. Really hope that's still having an effect (without too much ill health)

I detect a modicum of sarcasm here. Not much but just the right balance.

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On 6/20/2022 at 9:25 PM, praha said:

If we lose to the Lions fair to say an elimination final is locked in. Geelong gifted a run to finals every [censored] year. 

They will choke anyway😃

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On 6/20/2022 at 9:25 PM, praha said:

If we lose to the Lions fair to say an elimination final is locked in. Geelong gifted a run to finals every [censored] year. 

Narrator: "He didn't realise it at the time, but he was right: a loss to the Lions would, in fact, lock in an Elimination final.

And, just as with every year, Geelong ended their season with a gift: the gift...of fixturing."

 

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3 hours ago, layzie said:

I'm with you. I reckon in another season with a better set of circumstances injury wise, personnel wise, JVR being more ready wise we would have a better chance from winning outside top 4. I think this year would be a bridge too far.

Do or die this Friday night.

Win or lose this week, we are a top 4 quality side that's ended the year with almost 5 straight finals-like games as well as 2x matchups with three top 4 contenders in Pies, Dockers and Lions, and a game against the Cats. Literally every other team with that sort of string of games has had similar results. 

Brisbane could finish top 4 but they ain't winning it. Neither are Collingwood. Nor Freo. It's between Geelong, Sydney and us. Regardless of finishing position I'm confident we'll at least make the Prelim.

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3 minutes ago, praha said:

Win or lose this week, we are a top 4 quality side that's ended the year with almost 5 straight finals-like games as well as 2x matchups with three top 4 contenders in Pies, Dockers and Lions, and a game against the Cats. Literally every other team with that sort of string of games has had similar results. 

Brisbane could finish top 4 but they ain't winning it. Neither are Collingwood. Nor Freo. It's between Geelong, Sydney and us. Regardless of finishing position I'm confident we'll at least make the Prelim.

The break would definitely assist us in our chances.

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5 minutes ago, layzie said:

The break would definitely assist us in our chances.

All teams get a break before finals. Which effectively ruins any advantage top 4 teams have. Many teams have won a flag after losing in the first round: it's still 4 games in a row. From 5th down it's tougher because it's 4 wins in a row. But playing 4 finals on the way to the flag is not uncommon. This year has 2016 vibes. Two of the top 6 contending for top 4 could steal a flag. And at least one outside the top 4 will be a victim of unfortunate circumstance. We can't all end our season with 9 games against bottom8 sides like Geelong has.

Top 4 definitely helps. Confident we are a chance regardless of finishing position. 

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3 hours ago, Scoop Junior said:

Not sure why people are wanting Collingwood to lose.

If we win, it won't really matter as we will be top 4 and most likely playing Sydney.

But if we lose, it will only be better for Carlton to beat Collingwood if either Freo lose to the Giants or Sydney lose to the Saints by about 10 points more than our loss (either of which is unlikely).

Assuming that doesn't happen, then a Carlton win means we will finish 5th and face a potential back-to-back semi-final and preliminary final interstate (should we make it that far). That is likely to be Freo in a semi in Perth then Brisbane or Sydney in an away prelim.

Alternatively, if we lose but Collingwood win, we finish 6th but then only face one interstate final (semi against Sydney or Brisbane away and then prelim v Cats or Pies at the G should we make it that far).

Both roads from outside the top 4 are tough.

If we lose and Collingwood loses (assuming Fremantle and Sydney both win), our first final will be against Carlton, not Richmond. That's a win for us IMO. Also, our semi opponent will either be Geelong or Fremantle. Yes, Geelong is the best side in it, but if we're playing them in a semi they'll have just lost yet another first up final, with all that doubt sinking back in, and I would relish the chance to get them on the MCG in those circumstances with Jeremy Cameron possibly not yet back, or not at full fitness. Alternatively we get Fremantle. Yes, that's travel, but we travel well, we like Optus Stadium, and we're just two weeks removed from thumping them.

If Collingwood wins, we'll get Richmond first up, and then would have to back that up with a trip to Sydney or Brisbane for the semi. 

The pre-finals bye is back, so I'm not sure two interstate trips hurts us too much, and there is also the risk that as we saw before last year, the sides who win the first final and get the week off get disjointed preparation into their prelims, with only one game in a month. Who knows, maybe that will put the Sydney/Brisbane winner at a disadvantage for that prelim.

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3 hours ago, Scoop Junior said:

Not sure why people are wanting Collingwood to lose.

If we win, it won't really matter as we will be top 4 and most likely playing Sydney.

But if we lose, it will only be better for Carlton to beat Collingwood if either Freo lose to the Giants or Sydney lose to the Saints by about 10 points more than our loss (either of which is unlikely).

Assuming that doesn't happen, then a Carlton win means we will finish 5th and face a potential back-to-back semi-final and preliminary final interstate (should we make it that far). That is likely to be Freo in a semi in Perth then Brisbane or Sydney in an away prelim.

Alternatively, if we lose but Collingwood win, we finish 6th but then only face one interstate final (semi against Sydney or Brisbane away and then prelim v Cats or Pies at the G should we make it that far).

Absolutely  agree with this summary.

Finishing 6th and a potential Brisbane or Sydney semi into an MCG prelim is far more desirable than finishing 5th and potentially facing a Freo semi away into a Bris/Syd prelim.

The only thing is a lot of AFL members are hoping Collingwood go nowhere near the top 4 as GF tickets are extremely limited to non Collingwood supporting AFL members. (but that's not an MFC issue)

 

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1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Both roads from outside the top 4 are tough.

If we lose and Collingwood loses (assuming Fremantle and Sydney both win), our first final will be against Carlton, not Richmond. That's a win for us IMO. Also, our semi opponent will either be Geelong or Fremantle. Yes, Geelong is the best side in it, but if we're playing them in a semi they'll have just lost yet another first up final, with all that doubt sinking back in, and I would relish the chance to get them on the MCG in those circumstances with Jeremy Cameron possibly not yet back, or not at full fitness. Alternatively we get Fremantle. Yes, that's travel, but we travel well, we like Optus Stadium, and we're just two weeks removed from thumping them.

If Collingwood wins, we'll get Richmond first up, and then would have to back that up with a trip to Sydney or Brisbane for the semi. 

The pre-finals bye is back, so I'm not sure two interstate trips hurts us too much, and there is also the risk that as we saw before last year, the sides who win the first final and get the week off get disjointed preparation into their prelims, with only one game in a month. Who knows, maybe that will put the Sydney/Brisbane winner at a disadvantage for that prelim.

Agree with the premise that both roads are tough from outside the top 4 (hence the importance of finishing in the top 4).

I also agree that it's speculative - on my example of finishing 5th, if Freo happened to beat Geelong in a QF suddenly we'd be in an MCG semi instead of one at Optus.

But if we look at the likely results, finishing 5th with a top 4 of Cats, Swans, Lions and Dockers is likely going to require back-to-back interstate wins to make the GF. Winning interstate finals is hard - if we thought the Collingwood fans were loud last week at the G it's going to be much worse at Optus, the Gabba or SCG in a final (I still think of how loud Optus was in the 2018 prelim - I was there and it was intimidating). Again, it's not insurmountable, but I'd much prefer a situation where we avoid back-to-back interstate finals and only have to win one to get through.

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4 hours ago, praha said:

All teams get a break before finals. Which effectively ruins any advantage top 4 teams have. Many teams have won a flag after losing in the first round: it's still 4 games in a row. From 5th down it's tougher because it's 4 wins in a row. But playing 4 finals on the way to the flag is not uncommon. This year has 2016 vibes. Two of the top 6 contending for top 4 could steal a flag. And at least one outside the top 4 will be a victim of unfortunate circumstance. We can't all end our season with 9 games against bottom8 sides like Geelong has.

Top 4 definitely helps. Confident we are a chance regardless of finishing position. 

Geelong post bye 3 wins  from 12 games  and Geelong first week in finals 1 win in 8 games. Give me a draw on Friday would love to play them first up.

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Anyone else just see the article about the Swans, Pies, Lions and Saints fined for Covid 19 breaches.

Breaches include : 

- not undertaking a Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) within the period prescribed by the Protocols, and/or

- not uploading an image (photograph) of a prescribed RAT within the period prescribed by the Protocols; and/or

- Uploading an image taken of a previous RAT undertaken by that or another person.

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