Flag Hangover

[DubDee 25,701]

I know we are filled with confidence at the moment and perhaps wondering how many more flags our team will deliver in the next few years. I am curious however, as to how the team will cope with the expectation, pressure and hunger issues now that the curse has been lifted. We will of course face some adversity like key injuries, downturns in form, however our list is in excellent nick and all the pieces seem to be there. It is difficult to predict, we missed finals the last 2 years, yet we seemed unbeatable in finals this year.  I looked to some recent examples of teams struggling to back it up to see if there are any parallels.

1. Hawthorn Won flag in 2008, missed finals in 2009 and came 7th 2010. People say they were too young and that is correct to a degree. They did have Mitchell 26, Hodge and Sewell 24, etc. They needed more talent and more years in Buddy, Roughy etc. However I dont think anyone would have predicted they would miss finals and scrape in the next year after their flag. Hawks finished 5th in 2007 and 2nd in 2008 so their trajectory was on the up.

2. Collingwood won in 2010 (GF in 2011, then declined) - obviously not a hangover as such but worth a look as they were talked about as having the best young list in years and we all wondered how many flags would they get out of their list (similar to us now?). Luckily Buckley came in and took care of the rest.

3. Bulldogs flag in 2016 - missed finals next 2 years, didn't win a final again until 2021. A bit like the Hawks were a young side but the next 4 years people would not have predicted. I reckon they are the best example of a hangover and we need to avoid this obviously.

There are examples of successful eras obviously so let's hope you track like the Tigers. I would not be surprised if we have a few shaky moments early in 2022 and lose a few early games. Hopefully us supporters don't lose our heads, we will settle and do well I think.

The priority for us over the offseason should be the players mentality.  Have a break, enjoy it. Then come back and train even harder than before.  If our mindset slips even a little we will fall hard.  This is easier said than done as a release of pressure/intensity is completely normal and unavoidable after a drought break.  You need to acknowledge it and deal with it.

Anyone think we are a chance of a flag hangover, however big or small?

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

What are the factors that you think create the media notion of a 'hang over;?

Personally, I dislike that language, as it infers that expectations (that have been set by media/supporters) haven't been met, or that once a Grand Final has been won, the players aren't as compelled - which I feel is a disservice to the playing group and FD.

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by Engorged Onion

[DubDee 25,701]

21 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

What are the factors that you think create the media notion of a 'hang over;?

Personally, I dislike that language, as it infers that expectations (that have been set by media/supporters) haven't been met, or that once a Grand Final has been won, the players aren't as compelled - which I feel is a disservice to the playing group and FD.

 

A flag hangover in my mind is a team has had it's sights set on a single goal for years and then reaches it.  Like the dogs on 2016, perhaps party too much and lose focus.  It is completely natural to feel a massive release after achieving your goal. Everyone would then react differently to this - some would be spurred on even more, some feel a sense of satisfaction and maybe unconsciously ease off the intensity. 

Do you feel winning the flag will have a positive or negative impact on our season in 2022?

[deejammin' 2,370]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

I know we are filled with confidence at the moment and perhaps wondering how many more flags our team will deliver in the next few years. I am curious however, as to how the team will cope with the expectation, pressure and hunger issues now that the curse has been lifted. We will of course face some adversity like key injuries, downturns in form, however our list is in excellent nick and all the pieces seem to be there. It is difficult to predict, we missed finals the last 2 years, yet we seemed unbeatable in finals this year.  I looked to some recent examples of teams struggling to back it up to see if there are any parallels.

1. Hawthorn Won flag in 2008, missed finals in 2009 and came 7th 2010. People say they were too young and that is correct to a degree. They did have Mitchell 26, Hodge and Sewell 24, etc. They needed more talent and more years in Buddy, Roughy etc. However I dont think anyone would have predicted they would miss finals and scrape in the next year after their flag. Hawks finished 5th in 2007 and 2nd in 2008 so their trajectory was on the up.

2. Collingwood won in 2010 (GF in 2011, then declined) - obviously not a hangover as such but worth a look as they were talked about as having the best young list in years and we all wondered how many flags would they get out of their list (similar to us now?). Luckily Buckley came in and took care of the rest.

3. Bulldogs flag in 2016 - missed finals next 2 years, didn't win a final again until 2021. A bit like the Hawks were a young side but the next 4 years people would not have predicted. I reckon they are the best example of a hangover and we need to avoid this obviously.

There are examples of successful eras obviously so let's hope you track like the Tigers. I would not be surprised if we have a few shaky moments early in 2022 and lose a few early games. Hopefully us supporters don't lose our heads, we will settle and do well I think.

The priority for us over the offseason should be the players mentality.  Have a break, enjoy it. Then come back and train even harder than before.  If our mindset slips even a little we will fall hard.  This is easier said than done as a release of pressure/intensity is completely normal and unavoidable after a drought break.  You need to acknowledge it and deal with it.

Anyone think we are a chance of a flag hangover, however big or small?

Firstly, a ‘premiership hangover’ is not making the finals, or being in serious contention in finals, the year after a premiership.
Collingwood did not have a flag hangover in 2011, they made the grand final, a grand final they were favourites for, and while hindsight is 20/20 it would’ve been fascinating to see that game play out had it not have had the cloud of the mishandled Buckley handover hanging over it. A one year contract extension for Malthouse before those finals and I think Collingwood win. 
 

Bulldogs and Hawthorn did both drop away after their flag years. What do they have in common:

1. They were both surprised, neither were the best team all year, Hawthorn was a young up and coming team that surprised an all conquering and dominant Geelong team at the right time. The Bulldogs were far from the best team during the season, not even top four, got on a run and managed to peak at the right time.

2. Won before they internally expected to. The equivalent for us would’ve been winning in 2018.

3. Relied heavily on a few stars, for Hawthorn Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Crawford and Dew (in the GF) were all huge, for the dogs Stringer, Jj, Bont, Dahlhaus and Easton-wood were massive. It took a few more years for Clarkson to craft the system that won them 3 more flags and Crawford and Dew retired leaving holes in the list and the dogs were found wanting when JJ, Dahlhaus and Stringer had fluctuations in form.

The challenge for us is that the league is far tighter than it was back then. You can realistically make an argument for at least 12 teams making the finals next year (Melbourne, Dogs, Brisbane,  Cats, Power, Sydney, Giants, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, St Kilda, Carlton) whereas in 2009 and 17 there were really only 6 legitimate challengers. 

In terms of a hangover, the good news for us is of the last 21 flags only two teams haven’t made the finals the following year and we are very different to them. We were the best team all year, we lost 4 games by an average of 11.5 points, that’s frighteningly good consistency. We have a great system, star players but also great role players, some great leaders and a lot of younger players looking to improve not to mention a plethora of talent trying to fight their way into the team. We have also been building for a while, we definitely underperformed in 2020, we were ready for finals but our consistency let us down, you could also make the same argument for 2017. Now that our consistency in season is better (our only weakness is still bringing our best for bottom teams) I’d be stunned if we’re not top 4 heading into finals next year. And we’ve shown our brand stacks up in finals, we’re 5-1 in finals under Goodwin, pretty damn good.

Edited November 16, 2021 by deejammin'

[Rocknroll 1,002]

Im still hungover…….does that count

[durango 2,005]

I thought the same in 1965 when we 8-0.

The wheels fell off because players like Roet and Trevor Johnson left mid year to further their careers, I look at the team and believe it has not peaked yet but injuries are a great leveller.

I hope we have an injury free year and can repeat the dose in 2022, because their is a lot of improvement yet to come in Rivers, Pickett, Jackson, Sparrow, Jordan, Spargo, Bowey and Petty.

I believe that Clayton Oliver has even more improvement particularly his kicking can get better still.

Who knows what players like Tomlinson, Hunt, Weideman, Laurie, Dunstan and Rosman can do with a good development year ahead.

In fact it is scary what these MFC players may be able to achieve in 2022. 

[DubDee 25,701]

21 minutes ago, deejammin' said:

Firstly, a ‘premiership hangover’ is not making the finals, or being in serious contention in finals, the year after a premiership.
Collingwood did not have a flag hangover in 2011, they made the grand final, a grand final they were favourites for, and while hindsight is 20/20 it would’ve been fascinating to see that game play out had it not have had the cloud of the mishandled Buckley handover hanging over it. A one year contract extension for Malthouse before those finals and I think Collingwood win. 
 

Bulldogs and Hawthorn did both drop away after their flag years. What do they have in common:

1. They were both surprised, neither were the best team all year, Hawthorn was a young up and coming team that surprised an all conquering and dominant Geelong team at the right time. The Bulldogs were far from the best team during the season, not even top four, got on a run and managed to peak at the right time.

2. Won before they internally expected to. The equivalent for us would’ve been winning in 2018.

3. Relied heavily on a few stars, for Hawthorn Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Crawford were all huge, for the dogs Stringer, Jj, Bont, Dahlhaus and Easton-wood were massive. It took a few more years for Clarkson to craft the system that won them 3 more flags and the dogs were found wanting when JJ, Dahlhaus and Stringer had fluctuations in form.

The challenge for us is that the league is far tighter than it was back then. You can realistically make an argument for at least 12 teams making the finals next year (Melbourne, Dogs, Brisbane,  Cats, Power, Sydney, Giants, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, St Kilda, Carlton) whereas in 2009 and 17 there were really only 6 legitimate challengers. 

In terms of a hangover, the good news for us is of the last 21 flags only two teams haven’t made the finals the following year and we are very different to them. We were the best team all year, we lost 4 games by an average of 11.5 points, that’s frighteningly good consistency. We have a great system, star players but also great role players, some great leaders and a lot of younger players looking to improve not to mention a plethora of talent trying to fight their way into the team. We have also been building for a while, we definitely underperformed in 2020, we were ready for finals but our consistency let us down, you could also make the same argument for 2017. Now that our consistency in season is better (our only weakness is still bringing our best for bottom teams) I’d be stunned if we’re not top 4 heading into finals next year. And we’ve shown our brand stacks up in finals, we’re 5-1 in finals under Goodwin, pretty damn good.

Good reasoning.  Although you mention it will be a challenge that there are many teams that can make the 8, I think conversely there are no great teams to challenge for the flag, like the Cats and Hawks/Swans of years gone by.

The only part I would disagree with is your assessment of the Hawks, they had a very good team in 2008.  They came 2nd on the ladder and won 17 games (same as us this year). They came 5th the year before so I don't think it was the surprise people say. Them underperforming the next 2 years was startling and almost got Clarko sacked. Perhaps the surprise in 2008 was that the Cats were that good in 2008 so they seemed unbeatable.

[Sir Why You Little 36,990]

I think the side will get better…

[deejammin' 2,370]

40 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Good reasoning.  Although you mention it will be a challenge that there are many teams that can make the 8, I think conversely there are no great teams to challenge for the flag, like the Cats and Hawks/Swans of years gone by.

The only part I would disagree with is your assessment of the Hawks, they had a very good team in 2008.  They came 2nd on the ladder and won 17 games (same as us this year). They came 5th the year before so I don't think it was the surprise people say. Them underperforming the next 2 years was startling and almost got Clarko sacked. Perhaps the surprise in 2008 was that the Cats were that good in 2008 so they seemed unbeatable.

Fair enough, I largely agree, Hawthorn were certainly far less of a surprise than the dogs but I do think they were thinking their flag window was 2010ish and remember many officials from the club saying they were surprised to win one in 2008. Geelong being so dominant and such a shoe-in for a flag certainly masked Hawthorn’s very good season. They definitely dropped away badly, but I think there was enough change in their list to see it as different to ours, our GF team can literally walk unchanged into round 1 2022, Hawthorns couldn’t, hopefully that helps. 
It’s hard to see who the flag contenders next year are for sure, but I’m not sure if that’s due to a lack of them, or a general evenness to the competition. On form we’re far and away the best team, but Dogs, Brisbane, Richmond‘s best is very very good. We’ll need to improve to win the flag, but we’ll start favourites. Exciting!

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

Do you feel winning the flag will have a positive or negative impact on our season in 2022?

It cant be said either way. Correlation isn't causation....and you know what is said about hindsight.

Not meaning you @DubDee, but the language of Premiership Hangover is superficial punditry - but it's what 95% of readily accessible AFL pundits do.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Engorged Onion

[DemonOX 8,791]

No chance of a hangover. 

The boys will want to win it at the G in front of the Melb faithful. 

That will drive them imo as we still have a team capable of winning it again. 

[deelusions from afar 1,803]

These sort of posts can come back to bite us but I think we are unlikely to suffer a premiership hangover (I know everyone would think that after winning).  My reasons are:

1. Competition for spots.  There are a number of very unlucky players that will be super hungry (Tomlinson, Hunt, Jordon (does the sub count?), Smith, etc as well as others who might be a good chance to be in our best 22 if they can get a decent run at it eg Chandler, Weid, Laurie.  Minimal post season surgeries (as far as I know), no retirements from players that were in the 22.  Picking up Dunstan can't hurt either.
2. Not playing finals in Melbourne.  I think there would be a hunger to win in Melbourne in front of a Melbourne crowd at our home ground.
3. We were the dominant team - we didn't fluke it or get lucky or win before we were ready.
4. We have had many learnings - I feel like our 2018 year was a bit like other teams when they win before they're ready.  Obviously we didn't go as far but learning what it takes to get that far and how easy it is to drop behind the pack will be really important for us in 2022.
5. There's room for improvement - many players coming into their prime and others we've only seen a glimpse of their potential (Jackson, Kozzie, Riv, Bowey etc).

I'm not saying we'll win it next year as so much has to go right with injuries etc but would be very surprised if we are not thereabouts.

[Wizard of Koz 1,085]

Richmond didnt have a hangover. It is usually a reflection of the quality of team and injuries more than mentally drop off. Then again I honestly dont even know the actual names of positions that players play any more. Power Forward, small forward is all I know. So I am no expert.

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

Collingwood did have a great young list in 2010. 26 and under were 

Dane Swan (26)

Steele Sidebottom (19)

Pendlebury (22)

Heath Shaw (24)

Travis Cloke (23)

Alan Toovey (23)

Ben Reid (20)

Tyson Goldsack (22)

Nick Maxwell (26)

Luke Ball (25)

Dale Thomas (22)

Dane Beams (20) and 

Lumumba (23)

They well underperformed 

 

[Hopeful Demon 1,517]

I don't see why we'll have a flag hangover. We have a very mature playing group. The way in which the team conducted itself during the finals series was impeccable. Instead of getting too carried away by each victory, they resumed focus and kept training hard. That sort of attitude was a major reason why we ended up winning the flag. 

The main thing that we should avoid is injuries. If the team remains fit next year, we should be well-placed to win another flag.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Hopeful Demon

[Fritta and Turner 4,363]

Port did.  I remember the commentators saying they were happy with just the one.

[DubDee 25,701]

14 minutes ago, FarNorthernD said:

Collingwood did have a great young list in 2010. 26 and under were 

Dane Swan (26)

Steele Sidebottom (19)

Pendlebury (22)

Heath Shaw (24)

Travis Cloke (23)

Alan Toovey (23)

Ben Reid (20)

Tyson Goldsack (22)

Nick Maxwell (26)

Luke Ball (25)

Dale Thomas (22)

Dane Beams (20) and 

Lumumba (23)

They well underperformed 

 

What an unbelievable midfield! One flag certainly underperforming. Not sure how bucks screwed that up. Wanted to fix the culture. Lol. Look at them now 

[DubDee 25,701]

10 minutes ago, Hopeful Demon said:

I don't see why we'll have a flag hangover. We have a very mature playing group. The way in which the team conducted itself during the finals series was impeccable. Instead of getting too carried away by each victory, they resumed focus and kept training hard. That sort of attitude was a major reason why we ended up winning the flag. 

The main thing that we should avoid is injuries. If the team remains fit next year, we should be well-placed to win another flag.

Yep important to have a Lever, Viney and guys like that. 

not to mention the motivation of hopefully winning one with Tomlinson, Hunt, Jordon etc in the 22

[DubDee 25,701]

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

It cant be said either way. Correlation isn't causation....and you know what is said about hindsight.

Not meaning you @DubDee, but the language of Premiership Hangover is superficial punditry - but it's what 95% of readily accessible AFL pundits do.

No worries. This thread is about guessing/ predicting our fortunes in 2022, if you’re not up for that, that’s cool

[BDA 22,735]

This doesn't seem like a group that will rest on its laurels. We'll have a better idea after rd1

Barring a bad run with injuries i expect to finish top 4 and have another solid crack at the flag

 

[RedLegs23 927]

The determination to win a flag on the G in front of our faithful will be the drive for the boys no doubt

🔴🔵

[Demon4Life 603]

3 hours ago, deejammin' said:

Firstly, a ‘premiership hangover’ is not making the finals, or being in serious contention in finals, the year after a premiership.
Collingwood did not have a flag hangover in 2011, they made the grand final, a grand final they were favourites for, and while hindsight is 20/20 it would’ve been fascinating to see that game play out had it not have had the cloud of the mishandled Buckley handover hanging over it. A one year contract extension for Malthouse before those finals and I think Collingwood win. 
 

Bulldogs and Hawthorn did both drop away after their flag years. What do they have in common:

1. They were both surprised, neither were the best team all year, Hawthorn was a young up and coming team that surprised an all conquering and dominant Geelong team at the right time. The Bulldogs were far from the best team during the season, not even top four, got on a run and managed to peak at the right time.

2. Won before they internally expected to. The equivalent for us would’ve been winning in 2018.

3. Relied heavily on a few stars, for Hawthorn Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Crawford and Dew (in the GF) were all huge, for the dogs Stringer, Jj, Bont, Dahlhaus and Easton-wood were massive. It took a few more years for Clarkson to craft the system that won them 3 more flags and Crawford and Dew retired leaving holes in the list and the dogs were found wanting when JJ, Dahlhaus and Stringer had fluctuations in form.

The challenge for us is that the league is far tighter than it was back then. You can realistically make an argument for at least 12 teams making the finals next year (Melbourne, Dogs, Brisbane,  Cats, Power, Sydney, Giants, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, St Kilda, Carlton) whereas in 2009 and 17 there were really only 6 legitimate challengers. 

In terms of a hangover, the good news for us is of the last 21 flags only two teams haven’t made the finals the following year and we are very different to them. We were the best team all year, we lost 4 games by an average of 11.5 points, that’s frighteningly good consistency. We have a great system, star players but also great role players, some great leaders and a lot of younger players looking to improve not to mention a plethora of talent trying to fight their way into the team. We have also been building for a while, we definitely underperformed in 2020, we were ready for finals but our consistency let us down, you could also make the same argument for 2017. Now that our consistency in season is better (our only weakness is still bringing our best for bottom teams) I’d be stunned if we’re not top 4 heading into finals next year. And we’ve shown our brand stacks up in finals, we’re 5-1 in finals under Goodwin, pretty damn good.

Don't forget Liam Picken! BOG in the 2016 GF, no matter what the judges say

[dieter 3,325]

3 hours ago, durango said:

I thought the same in 1965 when we 8-0.

The wheels fell off because players like Roet and Trevor Johnson left mid year to further their careers, I look at the team and believe it has not peaked yet but injuries are a great leveller.

I hope we have an injury free year and can repeat the dose in 2022, because their is a lot of improvement yet to come in Rivers, Pickett, Jackson, Sparrow, Jordan, Spargo, Bowey and Petty.

I believe that Clayton Oliver has even more improvement particularly his kicking can get better still.

Who knows what players like Tomlinson, Hunt, Weideman, Laurie, Dunstan and Rosman can do with a good development year ahead.

In fact it is scary what these MFC players may be able to achieve in 2022. 

Let's not forget Bedford and Chandler and Baker...

[Phil C 728]

4 hours ago, FarNorthernD said:

Collingwood did have a great young list in 2010. 26 and under were 

Dane Swan (26)

Steele Sidebottom (19)

Pendlebury (22)

Heath Shaw (24)

Travis Cloke (23)

Alan Toovey (23)

Ben Reid (20)

Tyson Goldsack (22)

Nick Maxwell (26)

Luke Ball (25)

Dale Thomas (22)

Dane Beams (20) and 

Lumumba (23)

They well underperformed 

 

Terrible culture at the Filth though. Didak, Shaw et al, not to mention Lamumba and figjams like Daisy. We won’t be hampered by those types of personalities. 

[DeeZone 9,714]

I have read everyone’s posts and believe that as a team we reached another gear during the finals and I also believe that it was no accident but the culmination of a well thought out plan. Our improvement is based on elite fitness, team first behaviour and having a great group of players that trust each other and their coaches. We could be on the brink of something very special as in 1939-1941 or even 1955 - 1964, we witnessed something this year that none of us has seen before and barring unforeseen circumstances we have the talent and the depth to carve out our third dynasty.