Farewell Luke Jackson

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

20 minutes ago, BDA said:

Good morning EO. Did you go to the game with your 6yo?

Dogga is wrestling with a decision to stay or go. It’s a big life decision. Consumes energy. If subconsciously (or indeed consciously) he’s not fully committed, then very difficult to be at your best

I think signing and committing can only be a good thing for his form

Morning! I chose not to take him. Somewhat happy with the choice.

I hear your sentiment re: the wrestle. Maybe he's not wrestling, maybe he has made his mind up and his manager is aware (and potentially key personnel in the club) just not the public .

For me, I just don't think we can clearly link off field occurrences such as this, (as in his not permanently in his head about it) and his form line. 

I also think the modern athlete has evolved. Just like the hypothetical of Yze potentially coaching elsewhere... it's not a statement of not being committed to the current club. He can still do his job in the present moment (whilst contractually employed), whilst having alternate things on the horizon for the following year. And the up and down form (Yze or Jackson) is correlational not causational 🤙

 

**Maybe Rivers is off the boil a bit because he is mates with LJ and they both want to go to Freo on the basis of last nights result🤷‍♂️😀

Edited May 28, 2022 by Engorged Onion

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,843]

23 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

See I beg to differ.

Losing Jackson wouldn't be ideal, but I don't think it would set us back significantly as some may think. 

Gawn is contracted until 2025. If we were to recruit another ruckman through the draft or trade whoever that is, still has 3 years to develop under Gawny. 

The way i look at it is this;

Geelong lost GAJ at the end of 2010 and they went on to win a flag the next year.

Hawthorn lost Buddy after the 2013 flag and they went on to 2 more flags without him.

I highly doubt it'll set the club back because I would back Jason Taylor and Tim Lamb to make the right choice with from list management point of view.

Geelong have been phukkkked since Ottens retired. That's how important a good ruck can be. Persisting with substandard Stanley has cost them at least one grand final appearance. As far as Buddy goes . . . inconsistent record in September at best. 

[Redleg 40,912]

1 hour ago, BDA said:

Good morning EO. Did you go to the game with your 6yo?

Dogga is wrestling with a decision to stay or go. It’s a big life decision. Consumes energy. If subconsciously (or indeed consciously) he’s not fully committed, then very difficult to be at your best

I think signing and committing can only be a good thing for his form

Agree. If you are wrestling with a decision to leave your teammates and the club that invested a top pick on you only a few years ago,, who you won a flag with and go home, but to a club that could be ordinary for a while, that would play on your mind and probably/possibly affect your form.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

1 hour ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

Geelong have been phukkkked since Ottens retired. That's how important a good ruck can be. Persisting with substandard Stanley has cost them at least one grand final appearance. As far as Buddy goes . . . inconsistent record in September at best. 

Richmond never had a dominant ruckman through their years of winning flags so I'm not so sure your argument stacks up.

If you have a quality ruckman, clearly it'll help your cause but it's obviously not the difference between winning a premiership and not.

[Meggs 595]

56 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Agree. If you are wrestling with a decision to leave your teammates and the club that invested a top pick on you only a few years ago,, who you won a flag with and go home, but to a club that could be ordinary for a while, that would play on your mind and probably/possibly affect your form.

Is there any link here to the form drop off of his best mate Rivers?

[Redleg 40,912]

55 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Richmond never had a dominant ruckman through their years of winning flags so I'm not so sure your argument stacks up.

If you have a quality ruckman, clearly it'll help your cause but it's obviously not the difference between winning a premiership and not.

Toby says hi.

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,843]

51 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Richmond never had a dominant ruckman through their years of winning flags so I'm not so sure your argument stacks up.

If you have a quality ruckman, clearly it'll help your cause but it's obviously not the difference between winning a premiership and not.

Hey JG . . . your point is well made. I'm not suggesting a dominant ruck is 'premiership mandatory', merely that having one can make the different. But it's not a bad start. One could argue, for example, that St. Kilda forfeited a premiership 10 years ago because they didn't have one. Conversely, it could be argued that without Doyd, Footscray don't win in '16. I like your thinking though. 

[dazzledavey36 54,909]

2 hours ago, Redleg said:

Toby says hi.

I wouldn't say he's a dominant ruckman of the competition?

Has never won a best and fairest nor has he ever been in any All Australian consideration as a ruckman.

Hes a solid player who was recruited due to lack of opportunities at Sydney. Which makes me think that if you target the right ruckman out there that can come in and play a solid enough role then I think we would be fine.

Edited May 29, 2022 by dazzledavey36

[Redleg 40,912]

4 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I wouldn't say he's a dominant ruckman of the competition?

Has never won a best and fairest nor has he ever been in ang All Australian consideration as a ruckman.

Hes a solid player who was recruited due to lack of opportunities at Sydney. Which makes me think that if you target the right ruckman out there that can come in and play a solid enough role then I think we would be fine.

Agree he’s not a dominant ruckman of the competition, if that means being in the best couple, but he was a big part of Tigers flags, a big part and every Tiger player or fan would agree.

[Ted Lasso 19,514]

There is so much talk about Jackson to West Coast if he did leave, personally i think he'd most likely be wanting to go to Fremantle. i think he'd want to be at a winning team and see the possibility of a Jackson/Darcy combo as having the Gawn/Jackson potential. 

I'm not sure what a trade would look like if he did make a request to go to Fremantle but i think personally i'd like to see us ask for as many high end picks as possible, continue building the pool of talent and really set ourselves to be competing for as long as possible. Maybe Hayden Young, and their next 2 first rounders which would likely be around pick 15 ish 

 

 

[Nascent 9,212]

The more time passes the more concerned I am about Jackson leaving. We clearly planned a future around Jackson being the heir to Gawn and have no other recognised ruckman on our list outside of Daw who is a year to year back up proposition.

If Jackson leaves, we'll either need to recruit one in the draft (goodluck finding another Jackson quality ruck here) or trade for an average second stringer in on the annual 2nd/3rd round pick merry-go-round.

In theory would get a bounty for Jackson but I'm no longer sure that's realistic. West Coast can't trade their first round pick as they need to use it this year to satisfy AFLs rules. In theory they can seek approval from the AFL but I wouldn't count on it, so at this stage I'm not factoring pick 1-3 as a possibility. A future first plus change may be on the cards but don't think we would he happy with that.

Freo will have a pick in the high teens (most likely next year as well) and will not be trading any of their young talent like Serong, Brayshaw or Young. Hard to see how we will come away from a Jackson trade in anything but a worse position, particularly considering the talent and game changing ability that Jackson has.

[dazzledavey36 54,909]

1 minute ago, Dwight Schrute said:

There is so much talk about Jackson to West Coast if he did leave, personally i think he'd most likely be wanting to go to Fremantle. i think he'd want to be at a winning team and see the possibility of a Jackson/Darcy combo as having the Gawn/Jackson potential. 

I'm not sure what a trade would look like if he did make a request to go to Fremantle but i think personally i'd like to see us ask for as many high end picks as possible, continue building the pool of talent and really set ourselves to be competing for as long as possible. Maybe Hayden Young, and their next 2 first rounders which would likely be around pick 15 ish 

 

 

Young has just signed a 5 year contract extension this week.

[Ted Lasso 19,514]

43 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Young has just signed a 5 year contract extension this week.

well not him then, but i reckon a couple of picks and a good young player would be good. 

[Harrisonrules 273]

Nothing less than two under 10 draft picks. No fool would go to eagles for several years of pain. Dockers aren't going to give up anything. He's ours for a minimum of 5 years.

[Redleg 40,912]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Young has just signed a 5 year contract extension this week.

Wasn't homesick?

[Redleg 40,912]

I think that for LJ to go to WC and let them use the PSD this year, would be really low, sticking it to a club that invested highly in him and that led to his playing in a Premiership. He would be hurting us and his team mates. It would be like that no name number 1 pick who went to the Giants. I don't see LJ doing that to us. Aside from the PSD, where they would get him for nothing, I can't see them trading the first or second pick for him, as they will need more high end talent and may rather split the pick.

Surely if he was absolutely determined to go home, he would have told us last year and we could have traded for Cerra.

That being said, I see LJ signing a short term contract with us, if he doesn't want to commit long term and thereby giving himself time to think about his future, after a couple more years.

[Adam The God 30,246]

2 hours ago, Redleg said:

Agree he’s not a dominant ruckman of the competition, if that means being in the best couple, but he was a big part of Tigers flags, a big part and every Tiger player or fan would agree.

I think the better comparison is Hawthorn. They had average ruckmen through their threepeat. I don't think the Nankervis comparison is a good one though as he is a dominant/strong ruck.

[3183 Dee 2,853]

3 hours ago, Nascent said:

The more time passes the more concerned I am about Jackson leaving. We clearly planned a future around Jackson being the heir to Gawn and have no other recognised ruckman on our list outside of Daw who is a year to year back up proposition.

If Jackson leaves, we'll either need to recruit one in the draft (goodluck finding another Jackson quality ruck here) or trade for an average second stringer in on the annual 2nd/3rd round pick merry-go-round.

In theory would get a bounty for Jackson but I'm no longer sure that's realistic. West Coast can't trade their first round pick as they need to use it this year to satisfy AFLs rules. In theory they can seek approval from the AFL but I wouldn't count on it, so at this stage I'm not factoring pick 1-3 as a possibility. A future first plus change may be on the cards but don't think we would he happy with that.

Freo will have a pick in the high teens (most likely next year as well) and will not be trading any of their young talent like Serong, Brayshaw or Young. Hard to see how we will come away from a Jackson trade in anything but a worse position, particularly considering the talent and game changing ability that Jackson has.

I have no idea whether he will sign or not, but the problem is that we would have to replace a ruckman and a midfielder - it wouldn’t suffice to just pick up a ruckman, as Jackson offers so much more than that. If he did go, we would require two Top 10 picks minimum.

I doubt whether he would go through to the PSD as there’s no guarantee he would get to WCE: North have the $ and could well finish below WCE. It would also be a dog act and would leave a lot of very bad blood for the player, the destination club and above all, his agent.

[rpfc 28,413]

So I don’t think we are going to get access to a talent like Jackson for 6 or 7 years at least.

What happened in 2019 was an aberration to our trajectory and now we are so good that mid table mediocrity is all that will happen with injuries to good players for the better part of the next decade.

Thats just a long way of saying - we have a 20 year old jet who can be anything - we need to keep that.

That doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world if he does leave - far from it - but he is a jet. Don’t try to convince yourself otherwise.

[McQueen 17,864]

I understand he’s bought a property in Wembley - next door to Jesse. 

[Superunknown 4,217]

32 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I understand he’s bought a property in Wembley - next door to Jesse. 

Big commute from England 

[titan_uranus 25,017]

Fair dinkum does Demonland know how to jump off at the earliest opportunity.

Jackson's a 20 year old tall who has already shown in his 40 games that he is capable of doing things that very few other footballers can do.

It hasn't been consistent, but 20 year old talls are rarely consistent. Focusing on the current form slump and using it to water down what he's shown to date is a ridiculous way to assess him.

We should be doing everything we can to re-sign him. Draft picks are great but the phrase "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" couldn't be more appropriate.

[McQueen 17,864]

4 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Big commute from England 

Perf bro. 

[deanox 9,915]

8 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I wouldn't say he's a dominant ruckman of the competition?

Has never won a best and fairest nor has he ever been in any All Australian consideration as a ruckman.

Hes a solid player who was recruited due to lack of opportunities at Sydney. Which makes me think that if you target the right ruckman out there that can come in and play a solid enough role then I think we would be fine.

I actually think that only the only thing a ruck needs to be good enough to do is negate the opposition ruck.

I haven't got stats (because they don't provide them) but I think HO's to advantage are a furphy, and are offset by HOs to direct disadvantage. But if you have a poorly skilled or undersized ruck, then the average ruck can really dominate in those midfield situations. But for the majority of the top level and journeymen rucks, its close enough that the stoppages aren't overly influenced and it is really about the mids.

There are of course exceptions, but these usually come in some kind of unique flavour:

• Gawn is a giant (giving him an edge at the stoppage) but because he is more mobile than most at that height, he covers ground and provides the drop back defence option as well as the push forward extra tall option. Most giant rucks move a lot slower, so can't do all of this. He also does a lot of other things, and most people consider him the best in the comp, and perhaps one of the best rucks ever. So he is hardly the bench mark for what is needed.
• The mobile ruck is another flavour. Nic Naitanui, Paddy Ryder, Luke Jackson. They jump, they pick up ground balls, they dodge athletically. They are the proverbial 4th midfielder. Pretty rare, and while they look great but can often be more flash than substance because much of the time they also aren't as good as the giants in the ruck, and also aren't as good as the midfielders on the ground, meaning it is hard to truly dominate (a bit like a cricket all rounder who isn't really good enough to bat in the top 7 but also isn't a front line strike bowler).
• The ruck/forward: a solid ruck, but their value comes from also being a genuine forward player, leading patterns, marking kicking. Flavour of the month in the late 90s and 2000s. 

It's great to have one of these, because they add flexibility and can also be an extra weapon for the team to rely on. But plenty of teams have won flags with just a serviceable ruck who holds their own at stoppages and takes a few marks around the ground.,

[deanox 9,915]

8 hours ago, Nascent said:

... West Coast can't trade their first round pick as they need to use it this year to satisfy AFLs rules. In theory they can seek approval from the AFL but I wouldn't count on it, so at this stage I'm not factoring pick 1-3 as a possibility. ...

I think the real reason to force the draft selections is to make sure teams aren't selling the future farms for older players. If the WCE were trading a first rounder for a 3rd year 21 year old player, I feel that would be reasonable. But I can't see them allowing WCE to trade this years pick and next years pick. And we'd want more than just one pointy end pick, as he is a top 3 pick, with demonstrated skill and start quality, having won a club best first year player, two rising star nominations, and the competition rising star award, and having just hit 50 games experience. 

 

On average, 39% of players picked between 3-5 play 200 games (one every 2.6 picks) and Luke is currently trending above the curve with respect to this type of metric, so "two top 3 picks plus something else" is not an unreasonable trade demand given his age.

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison