What’s Behind Our Form Slump

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

22 hours ago, John Crow Batty said:

The Age reckons it’s Nathan Buckley who’s triggered our current malaise.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/buckley-has-temporarily-departed-the-afl-scene-but-for-demons-he-isn-t-forgotten-20210728-p58djd.html

Thanks JCW.  I think whoever had that solid win against us (vs the flukey one by the Crows) was always going to get plenty of coverage but there might be something in aspects of the way the Pies played in that win.

One thing that stood out to me from this article, and i have no idea how truthful or otherwise it is....

...."Then came the loss to the Western Bulldogs, a fellow premiership fancy, on Saturday night, when the Demons, as is their style, were content to allow their opponents to have more numbers at stoppages and the Dogs responded by booting 46 points from clearances, an issue Goodwin said there were “simple solutions” to resolve.

The Demons prefer to try and win the ball back with extra numbers behind the ball if beaten at the clearances - a Richmond trait."...

Is it as simple as bringing up an extra number (or even two?) around stoppages then kicking dirty ball into our defenders so they can't defend as easily?

The other side to this is, unless our mids are performing close to their absolute best, then the extra one or two at stoppage is going to be a big advantage.  I noticed Spargo spending a bit more time higher up the field against the dogs.  Was that an early entre' adjustment by the FD, bringing up a small forward to counter the opp's extra influence around stoppage?

Also are our mids not being allowed to perform at their best as a result of the extra number/s or are they somewhat off the boil?  Some of them not all.  Tracc is still going ok IMV but that's about it.  Clarry playing very well in patches but still not at his best for the year of late.  Harmes (albeit one week back from an injury and requires another week or two to settle), Viney & Jordan struggling.  With Viney IMHO looking alot better up forward.  I would have him playing mostly up forward and at this point look to bring Kozzie up for more mid time along with significant assistance, with say Chunk (in a week or so) or Vanders to replace Jordan if his form continues to drop away.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

At the end of the day looking from the outside who knows what the real reason/s is/are behind our form slump.  However i thought i'd take a look at the numbers pre / post bye given our amazing run before vs the not so great after.

While i don't expect this will provide any answers and is in no way a perfect snapshot / science of where every player is at, this might provide us with some sort of rough idea of where each player is tracking pre / post the bye.  I've been tracking / tinkering and fine tuning these weighted composite averages now since 2017 and they do seem to track (very roughly) where each player is at in a match or a block of matches or the entire season (give or take a few rungs while also missing out on some of the nuances that stats often miss like someone playing a lock down role, playing a completely different role than usual to help out the team or coming back from a medium/long lay off though injury etc eg; Viney).

I have placed the table in order of the player who has deviated the most (highest %) vs his form pre the bye.  As you can see our two big fellas appear to have hit a wall post the break.  I'm not to worried about 12% and below given this method is not doubt imperfect and i'm sure players can make up 10% to 12% if they lift in coming weeks.  But something around the 15% mark or higher, at least for me, should probably be setting off an alarm bell or two!  The other concern is....there is alot of red here regardless...

Player	Pre  Bye Score	Pre Bye Rank	Post Bye Score	%  Change Post Bye	Post Bye  Rank	Change in Rank Post Bye
L Jackson	2.523	14	1.645	-34.80	22	-8
Max Gawn	3.637	5	2.755	-24.24	10	-5
A N-Bullen	2.294	18	1.815	-20.89	20	-2
M Hibberd	2.633	13	2.085	-20.82	17	-4
Ed Langdon	3.373	9	2.825	-16.24	9	0
Jack Viney	3.450	8	2.985	-13.48	8	0
J Harmes	3.632	6	3.163	-12.92	6	0
K Pickett	2.475	16	2.175	-12.12	15	1
C Oliver	5.423	1	4.775	-11.95	1	0
J Jordan	2.888	11	2.585	-10.51	12	-1
T McDonald	2.662	12	2.525	-5.13	13	-1
C Petracca	3.960	4	3.875	-2.14	5	-1
A Brayshaw	3.060	10	3.010	-1.62	7	3
J Hunt	2.413	17	2.410	-0.14	14	3
C Spargo	2.033	20	2.030	-0.13	18	2
Steven May	4.040	2	4.045	0.12	4	-2
H Petty	1.950	21	1.975	1.28	19	2
B Fritsch	2.058	19	2.090	1.54	16	3
C Salem	4.019	3	4.190	4.26	2	1
T Rivers	2.481	15	2.705	9.04	11	4
Ben Brown	1.575	22	1.733	10.03	21	1
Jake Lever	3.513	7	4.105	16.84	3	4
Team Score	66.09		61.50	-6.95

Edited July 29, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[picket fence 17,511]

On 7/26/2021 at 5:22 PM, Demonland said:

 

Coz we arent winning games thats why?

[leave it to deever 17,517]

more specifically who.....

Tmac

Langdon

Jackson

Spargo

Fritta

rivers

Edited July 29, 2021 by leave it to deever

[Garbo 1,542]

11 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

At the end of the day looking from the outside who knows what the real reason/s is/are behind our form slump.  However i thought i'd take a look at the numbers pre / post bye given our amazing run before vs the not so great after.

While i don't expect this will provide any answers and is in no way a perfect snapshot / science of where every player is at, this might provide us with some sort of rough idea of where each player is tracking pre / post the bye.  I've been tracking / tinkering and fine tuning these weighted composite averages now since 2017 and they do seem to track (very roughly) where each player is at in a match or a block of matches or the entire season (give or take a few rungs while also missing out on some of the nuances that stats often miss like someone playing a lock down role, playing a completely different role than usual to help out the team or coming back from a medium/long lay off though injury etc eg; Viney).

I have placed the table in order of the player who has deviated the most (highest %) vs his form pre the bye.  As you can see our two big fellas appear to have hit a wall post the break.  I'm not to worried about 12% and below given this method is not doubt imperfect and i'm sure players can make up 10% to 12% if they lift in coming weeks.  But something around the 15% mark or higher, at least for me, should probably be setting off an alarm bell or two!  The other concern is....there is alot of red here regardless...

Player	Pre  Bye Score	Pre Bye Rank	Post Bye Score	%  Change Post Bye	Post Bye  Rank	Change in Rank Post Bye
L Jackson	2.523	14	1.645	-34.80	22	-8
Max Gawn	3.637	5	2.755	-24.24	10	-5
A N-Bullen	2.294	18	1.815	-20.89	20	-2
M Hibberd	2.633	13	2.085	-20.82	17	-4
Ed Langdon	3.373	9	2.825	-16.24	9	0
Jack Viney	3.450	8	2.985	-13.48	8	0
J Harmes	3.632	6	3.163	-12.92	6	0
K Pickett	2.475	16	2.175	-12.12	15	1
C Oliver	5.423	1	4.775	-11.95	1	0
J Jordan	2.888	11	2.585	-10.51	12	-1
T McDonald	2.662	12	2.525	-5.13	13	-1
C Petracca	3.960	4	3.875	-2.14	5	-1
A Brayshaw	3.060	10	3.010	-1.62	7	3
J Hunt	2.413	17	2.410	-0.14	14	3
C Spargo	2.033	20	2.030	-0.13	18	2
Steven May	4.040	2	4.045	0.12	4	-2
H Petty	1.950	21	1.975	1.28	19	2
B Fritsch	2.058	19	2.090	1.54	16	3
C Salem	4.019	3	4.190	4.26	2	1
T Rivers	2.481	15	2.705	9.04	11	4
Ben Brown	1.575	22	1.733	10.03	21	1
Jake Lever	3.513	7	4.105	16.84	3	4
Team Score	66.09		61.50	-6.95

Nice chart, some of those were not obvious to me, maybe some of that says how much some players were playing above there usual as well. Safe to say the our bye form was not sustainable. Now they need to learn how to win with this.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Garbo

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, Garbo said:

Nice chart, some of those were not obvious to me, maybe some of that says how much some players were playing above there usual as well. Safe to say the our bye form was not sustainable. Now they need to learn how to win with this.

Probably unsustainable Garbo but it's the degree to which some have dropped off that, while not panic stations just yet, certainly appears to be in need of some serious attention.

And stating the obvious here but the other factor is of course our inability to conmect/and or convert the good work up the field (or maybe not so good work if we can't connect when the opp arises).  If that continues, which it has till now, it's eventually going to effect the team psyche and confidence.  If it hasn't already done so.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[Wrecker46 3,016]

On 7/27/2021 at 8:02 PM, binman said:

Symptom not cause goffy.

Everyone of those players have poor technique.

Fatigue exacerbates poor technique.

High training loads cause fatigue.

Do you know if we are doing higher loads leading into the finals to build maximum fitness only to pull right back once we get there like we did under Daniher?

[BDA 22,889]

Could just be the natural ebb and flow of form over a season

Reckon its due to fatigue caused by heavy training loads

A moment of magic, a spark will re-ignite our season. One of Trac, Kossie, TMac perhaps could provide. Or BB clunk and kick 3-4 goals

All is not lost. Perhaps the Suns will play us back into form this weekend

[Kent 2,914]

2 hours ago, Wrecker46 said:

Do you know if we are doing higher loads leading into the finals to build maximum fitness only to pull right back once we get there like we did under Daniher?

Binman has been saying this for weeks I suppose he knows something!!

But certainly there is some cause for concern at the drop off in form of or senior players

[binman 43,807]

4 hours ago, Wrecker46 said:

Do you know if we are doing higher loads leading into the finals to build maximum fitness only to pull right back once we get there like we did under Daniher?

Max confirmed after the port game they were loading.

Im no expert, but it has been  part of football since at least Daniher's time as coach. So over 30 years.

And I assume it has been perfected over the last 20 with all the advancements in technology (eg computing power, gps etc) and knowledge about physiology etc.

And of course loading and tapering has been a feature of training programs preparing for events such as the Olympics for god knows how long, but probably at least 50 years in a really scientific way.

All teams do it. Engorged onion posted a chart earlier in this thread of an example of what an afl club's program might look like. And suggested the clubs would all follow a very similar program

That said there would obviously be some variables.

For example, given loading might make it harder to win say a round 15 game, would a team that was battling to make the 8 go as hard as one that had a top 4 position locked in?

The lack of vfl games for vic teams creates another variable, as does age profile of the list.

Yet another one is how best to manage overall loads (ie training and games). We seem to be using a strategy of giving younger players much less game time than earlier in the season.

I find it strange that the whole loading and preparation for finals is not discussed more, particularly given the afl media is dominated by ex footballers who would have gone through such programs all their career.

Perhaps its the same as the palaver of the prevailing culture in footy of not using injuries as an excuse for poor performance. 

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by binman

[deanox 9,989]

21 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

...  As you can see our two big fellas appear to have hit a wall post the break. ...

I can correlate these numbers to what I've noticed, and in Max's case I think it has been his around the ground work and defensive work rather then his stoppage work that has gone off the boil from the opening rounds.

Some stats below show how he has dropped off slightly in key areas.

He is marking less, finding less ground ball and his DE% has dropped right off.

Edited July 29, 2021 by deanox

[deanox 9,989]

And at the same time Jackson's involvement has dropped off a bit.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Thanks Ox.  Interesting that Max's intercept marking starting falling away (or appeared to) from about Rnd 6.

Where are you sourcing those from?  Stats pro? 

[deanox 9,989]

54 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Thanks Ox.  Interesting that Max's intercept marking starting falling away (or appeared to) from about Rnd 6.

Where are you sourcing those from?  Stats pro? 

Yeah, just screen shots out of the AFL app, stats tab.

My position on rucks at stoppages is that they are useless but necessary to stop the other ruck having an advantage. I'm not convinced that any ruck has a substantially positive hit out to advantage vs hit out to disadvantage ratio, so their value comes in neutralising the ruck contest then assisting with body position in the contested ball situation. This is why Grundy is good, imo. But Max's value is his around the ground aerial threat, reading the play, intercepting, marking rebounding from 50. Combined with Lever and May, at its best it makes our defence impenetrable.

But he has been off his clean marking game recently. It hurts us.

I haven't checked heat maps to see if this has been a positional thing. Our forward line has been underperforming, and Jackson is down on ourput, has Max been spending more the forward to try to counter this (and thus less time back intercepting)?

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by deanox

[Webber 10,538]

15 minutes ago, deanox said:

But he has been off his clean marking game recently. It hurts us.

I reckon a good amount of this is the wet games we’ve been playing. Expecting a turnaround on the Goldie. 

[BW511 2,688]

2 hours ago, binman said:

Max confirmed after the port game they were loading.

Im no expert, but it has been  part of football since at least Daniher's time as coach. So over 30 years.

And I assume it has been perfected over the last 20 with all the advancements in technology (eg computing power, gps etc) and knowledge about physiology etc.

And of course loading and tapering has been a feature of training programs preparing for events such as the Olympics for god knows how long, but probably at least 50 years in a really scientific way.

All teams do it. Engorged onion posted a chart earlier in this thread of an example of what an afl club's program might look like. And suggested the clubs would all follow a very similar program

That said there would obviously be some variables.

For example, given loading might make it harder to win say a round 15 game, would a team that was battling to make the 8 go as hard as one that had a top 4 position locked in?

The lack of vfl games for vic teams creates another variable, as does age profile of the list.

Yet another one is how best to manage overall loads (ie training and games). We seem to be using a strategy of giving younger players much less game time than earlier in the season.

I find it strange that the whole loading and preparation for finals is not discussed more, particularly given the afl media is dominated by ex footballers who would have gone through such programs all their career.

Perhaps its the same as the palaver of the prevailing culture in footy of not using injuries as an excuse for poor performance. 

 

I played in a successful local junior side that won 3 flags in 4 years (U15-U18) 

We were definitely doing it back then, even in junior footy and that was 20 years ago.

 

The general sports fan does not realise that professional sports are based on very small margins and teams are searching for 1% difference to get them over the line. They are not just 'fit' and that is enough

[Dingo 1,126]

On 7/27/2021 at 9:28 AM, Ollie fan said:

On the main topic of this thread, I have said in other threads, I really believe that the drop in form of Christian Salem has been a massive issue. I don’t blame him at all, it is clear that he is carrying an injury, but I believe that he was setting up chains of movement of the ball which gave us good scoring opportunities. Now, he doesn’t seem to do that very much at all and so the ball comes out from our defence in a much more slow and undirected manner and, indeed, the other side are much more able to lock it in to our defence. Similarly with this, Langdon's form has also dropped off, although I couldn’t guess of the reason for that.

it seems to me that Hunt has been tasked with taking over this role and that is one reason why he is making those runs out of defence more often than previously. I love those runs, but unfortunately he is not a particularly good disposer.

I don’t know what the solution is. Perhaps either or both of them need a week off to get their bodies better. 

Christian is being tagged. Spoke to one of his family and told that Hawks put an extra man around him.And Dogs did something similar.

 

 

 

 

 

[3Dee 1,153]

I liked our game last week, past two weeks the free count riding at +21 against tends to influence momentum.

[deanox 9,989]

On 7/30/2021 at 9:56 AM, Webber said:

I reckon a good amount of this is the wet games we’ve been playing. Expecting a turnaround on the Goldie. 

Let's see how we go under the roof at Marvel tomorrow!

[FritschyBusiness 1,478]

I think well go W L W L W W Flag 

[Swooper1987 3,322]

On 7/30/2021 at 8:40 AM, deanox said:

I can correlate these numbers to what I've noticed, and in Max's case I think it has been his around the ground work and defensive work rather then his stoppage work that has gone off the boil from the opening rounds.

Some stats below show how he has dropped off slightly in key areas.

He is marking less, finding less ground ball and his DE% has dropped right off.

Gawn's DE has dropped since he has focused more on winning clearance himself.  His grabs out of the ruck contest and throwing it on to the boot to move the ball forward are almost never going to be "efficient" under the stats definition.  Also, it is much easier to be efficient if you handball more.  Max is one of the few rucks who kicks more often than handballs.  

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

Can stat's measure a length of kick numeric total per game?

[binman 43,807]

Bumping this thread as it interesting to read how many of the same issues were occurring from June through end of July last year.

For example Watson11 notes in that thread, our scores from turnovers (as he notes, scores from turnovers fundamental of our game) fell off a cliff in thta perid last year, just as they did against the Swans

Other examples include, trouble scoring, sudden very stodgy and slow ball movement, fumbles, our stars output dropping and Jackson falling away.

Regardless of what you think the causes are for those issues, the important take away is that the last post in a thread about our slump in form was 1 August 2021.

The same day we clicked into gear, destroyed the suns by over 100 points, smashed every team after that on our way to our first premiership in 57 years.

There wasn't much talk about form slumps after that last post.

Edited June 8, 2022 by binman

[Vipercrunch 2,827]

I noticed in the Freo game we were moving the ball far quicker than normal.  It stuck out like a sore thumb.  It also wasn't working and I was yelling at the telly to slow it down.  I'd love to know the reason for it though.  Coaches instruction or individuals trying to play champagne football and score heavily?  Arrogance?  Deliberately not showing our hand to contenders? Who knows but it was a huge difference and it seems to have come unstruck.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Vipercrunch

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

3 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

Deliberately not showing our hand to contenders? Who knows but it was a huge difference and it seems to have come unstruck.

Interestingly, I have pondered the 'not showing hand' against Sydney and Freo, after getting out to a 30 point lead in both matches... defenders off/injured... I'm not saying neither team didn't execute their plans well... it just felt like a complete reversal post half time, beyond what the opposition did.

But that'd just be me being arrogant... still trying to make sense of why we didn't match the +2 at stoppages that occurred for the second half against Freo, that felt odd...