413 shots for 205 goals and 208 pionts

[titan_uranus 25,043]

1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

That Hunt moment was a bit of a turning point.

Exactly the moment we needed to put the foot down but blew it.

Pretty sure a teammate got angry at him, too, because I recall after his miss they cut to him and he was mouthing back and gesturing as if to say "what was I supposed to do?"

The answer, IIRC, was to slow down and hit one of the players laterally. Unfortunately he took off and wanted to keep moving, and ended up making a bad decision to neither full bore go for goal nor to pass it to Brown.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

4.6 last night from set shots and one of them came from the Brayshaw 50 metre penalty in the goal square.

BBB who couldn’t miss at North kicked 0.2 from set shots.

The set shot conversion needs to be over 50% as theoretically players should be more composed than kicking on the run.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18

Player	SG	GAC %	2021 Rank
B Fritsch	56	62.5	1
T Sparrow	7	57.1	2
L Jackson	16	56.3	3
T McDonald	51	54.9	4
M Brown	4	50.0	5
E Langdon	22	50.0	5
J Harmes	11	45.5	7
K Pickett	59	44.1	8
A Neil-Bullen	25	44.0	9
B Brown	14	42.9	10
J Jordan	15	40.0	11
J Hunt	5	40.0	11
C Petracca	49	38.8	13
J Melksham	13	38.5	14
C Spargo	28	35.7	15
T Rivers	3	33.3	16
M Gawn	24	33.3	16
J Viney	6	33.3	16
C Salem	6	33.3	16
S Weideman	10	30.0	20
N Jones	7	28.6	21
C Oliver	22	27.3	22
A Brayshaw	13	15.4	23

SG = Shots at Goal   GAC = Goal Accuracy %

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

25 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

4.6 last night from set shots and one of them came from the Brayshaw 50 metre penalty in the goal square.

BBB who couldn’t miss at North kicked 0.2 from set shots.

The set shot conversion needs to be over 50% as theoretically players should be more composed than kicking on the run.

Some random information/data which I think is relevant to this conversation. It's taken from A Matter of Stats (but goes to 2017 - which is a long time ago in football terms).

• Our style - kicking to pockets, repeat entries - to my mind links into the 3rd point of interest in the Relationship Between Scoring and Winning Rates. 

 

 

 

 

[monoccular 17,573]

7 hours ago, picket fence said:

Hnmm anyone else unhappy with that conversion rate? Here above are the stats. Now can I reference this by saying that goal kicking IS a specialised art, and one that requires not only plenty of practice but a firm set shot routine. Shots on the run are more problematic, but set shots from anywhere in a 45 degree ark from 45 or so out should be absolute "Gimmes". Missing from 35 out almost directly in front is just dreadful goalkicking.  Putting on my Sports Science and Phys Ed teachers hat, quality practice and set shot routines start from Junior footy, but can still be coached at Senior footy providing the technique is kept relatively simple and is Biomechanically correct. I have seen plenty of players practicing at the end of training but that is not what I would call, specific, discrete, open or cloze skill model! Years ago I worked with some A grade Ammos clubs specifically on goal kicking drills and skills to improve set shot routines. I wont go into the method but it worked well enough for me and others as well. I suspect that AFL and other clubs probably dont have the resources to afford a specific goal kicking coach but should as given that it is a professional sport with professional level salaries, players missing easy goals just should be an aberration more than the norm.

Fence - are you volunteering, as a highly qualified “passionate supporter”? 

6 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Brayshaw’s last qtr miss was the costly one and a reflection of our woes this year.

A player that was supposed to be renowned as an elite set shot for goal, can’t nail a shot from 40 mtrs out on a slight angle. It’s been happening all year from some of our players including Kozzie, Petracca and Gawn. T Macs also been poor at times at the regulation set shot.

Was also annoyed at Brayshaw’s arrogant celebration after he kicked a goal from 1 mtr out from a 50 M penalty, to put us 11 points up, as if the job had already been done.

I can see our conversion holding us back from a genuine tilt this year, unless we can get it right in September.

We need to get it right in July - can’t wait until September. 

[picket fence 17,500]

58 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Fence - are you volunteering, as a highly qualified “passionate supporter”? 

We need to get it right in July - can’t wait until September. 

YEP but club wont even  think it viable

[Little Goffy 14,639]

8 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Ever since Goodwin arrived we have had trouble converting i50’s to scores

We need to sort it out before September, we will be shown up under Finals pressure 

Hard to make a comparison really. Obviously not much point going back to Neeld era so it is just the Roos period of any recent relevance. Still, let's look: (per game)

Roos:

2014:  40.5 i50s, for 8.6 goals and 9.0 behinds    

2015:  44.5 i50s, for 10.2 goals and 10.2 behinds

2016:  53.8 i50s, for 13.0 goals and 10.3 behinds

Goodwin:

2017: 54.8 i50s, for 13.7 goals, 10.1 behinds

2018: 59.8 i50s, for 14.8 goals, 12.8 behinds

2019: 54.0 i50s, for 10.1 goals, 10.1 behinds

*2020:  42.5 i50s, for 9.1 goals, 7.8 behinds

2021: 54.0 i50s, for 12.1 goals, 12.2 behinds

Verdict:

It's patchy. 2018 we were simply the best attacking side in the game, 2017 not far off the pace either. Our attack imploded in 2019 and we were kind of mid-range in 2020.

Right now we're doing 'well' for total scoring, but as much as a goal a game behind the top teams for actual goals. So in that sense it is our accuracy that is killing us, not our conversion of inside 50s to goals. But I would speculate we'd look very different if the stat was 'inside 35s' and therein lies the rub.

[GCDee 3,199]

We seem to enter our forward 50 into the pockets more often than not.

I think we do this to effectively set up down the field to assist our defence, this will normally lead to tougher set shots on angles. I'd be really interested in heat maps between us on the other top 4 teams were our set shots have been taken from. 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

20 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18

Player	SG	GAC %	2021 Rank
B Fritsch	56	62.5	1
T Sparrow	7	57.1	2
L Jackson	16	56.3	3
T McDonald	51	54.9	4
M Brown	4	50.0	5
E Langdon	22	50.0	5
J Harmes	11	45.5	7
K Pickett	59	44.1	8
A Neil-Bullen	25	44.0	9
B Brown	14	42.9	10
J Jordan	15	40.0	11
J Hunt	5	40.0	11
C Petracca	49	38.8	13
J Melksham	13	38.5	14
C Spargo	28	35.7	15
T Rivers	3	33.3	16
M Gawn	24	33.3	16
J Viney	6	33.3	16
C Salem	6	33.3	16
S Weideman	10	30.0	20
N Jones	7	28.6	21
C Oliver	22	27.3	22
A Brayshaw	13	15.4	23

SG = Shots at Goal   GAC = Goal Accuracy %

Interesting data. My main concern is Pickett. Given he has had the most shots at goal (a surprise to me), if we could get him at the T-Mac level of accuracy he would have generated an extra 6 goals; at the Fritsch level, an extra 11 goals.

[Wells 11 5,422]

20 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18

Player	SG	GAC %	2021 Rank
B Fritsch	56	62.5	1
T Sparrow	7	57.1	2
L Jackson	16	56.3	3
T McDonald	51	54.9	4
M Brown	4	50.0	5
E Langdon	22	50.0	5
J Harmes	11	45.5	7
K Pickett	59	44.1	8
A Neil-Bullen	25	44.0	9
B Brown	14	42.9	10
J Jordan	15	40.0	11
J Hunt	5	40.0	11
C Petracca	49	38.8	13
J Melksham	13	38.5	14
C Spargo	28	35.7	15
T Rivers	3	33.3	16
M Gawn	24	33.3	16
J Viney	6	33.3	16
C Salem	6	33.3	16
S Weideman	10	30.0	20
N Jones	7	28.6	21
C Oliver	22	27.3	22
A Brayshaw	13	15.4	23

SG = Shots at Goal   GAC = Goal Accuracy %

Thanks fir this. I was surprised to see Gus at 15.4%. that is actually pretty disgraceful fr a player of his ability , especially  given one goal he kicked was from 1 mtr out! So,  if my maths is accurate, it means he’s only kicked 1 other goal from his other 12 set shots? that’s crazy bad. 

with Oliver  i pretty much just presume he will kick a point now, but even HE has a better % than Gus. 

My concern is when finals pressure hits we may get even worse. straight kicking makes a huge difference in big games. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

32 minutes ago, Wells 11 said:

Thanks fir this. I was surprised to see Gus at 15.4%. that is actually pretty disgraceful fr a player of his ability , especially  given one goal he kicked was from 1 mtr out! So,  if my maths is accurate, it means he’s only kicked 1 other goal from his other 12 set shots? that’s crazy bad. 

with Oliver  i pretty much just presume he will kick a point now, but even HE has a better % than Gus. 

My concern is when finals pressure hits we may get even worse. straight kicking makes a huge difference in big games. 

I'm not expecting miracles but the impression i get from some is that they're just not fussed whether they hit or miss.  Especially Clarry.  I've always said if he can bring reasonable goal kicking returns to his arsenol he'll go down as one of the great MFC players.

Have a feeling this might be for all shots taken not just set shots W11.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

28 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Interesting data. My main concern is Pickett. Given he has had the most shots at goal (a surprise to me), if we could get him at the T-Mac level of accuracy he would have generated an extra 6 goals; at the Fritsch level, an extra 11 goals.

It's funny we all see things diff LDC.

I was actually quite pleasantly surprised at Kozzie's % given he's only into his second year.

It's some of the other more senior fellows that are stinking it up that, for me, are more of a concern.  Melk, Viney, Clarry, Gawny and Gus the main offenders.  Not that we rely on Gus just that his % is bottom of the barrel stuff... at 33% or so i might get it.  Gawn's % also pretty much fits the bill but would have hoped he might have improved a little here and at least be hitting at around 40% or thereabouts.

[george_on_the_outer 7,696]

This is the ANB interview on the club website......forget the interview.....in the background is Greg Stafford working with Kossie on his goal kicking, much more interesting:

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/983044/off-the-track-alex-neal-bullen?videoId=983044&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1626676252001

 

[Older demon 2,779]

16 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

This is the ANB interview on the club website......forget the interview.....in the background is Greg Stafford working with Kossie on his goal kicking, much more interesting:

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/983044/off-the-track-alex-neal-bullen?videoId=983044&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1626676252001

 

I noticed this as well George. This was on Monday and 2 things stood out for me. The first was there was less bounce in Kozi's step and trying to get him to run in a straight line. The bouncy run appears to affect his ball drop and Stafford can be seen showing how the ball drop should guide the ball to his foot. It also looked like they are working on a set shot routine, with a set number of steps, more of a run than a bounce and a straight ball drop.

Heres hoping it works on the weekend 

[Pates 9,660]

On 7/19/2021 at 4:38 PM, Rusty Nails said:

I'm not expecting miracles but the impression i get from some is that they're just not fussed whether they hit or miss.  Especially Clarry.  I've always said if he can bring reasonable goal kicking returns to his arsenol he'll go down as one of the great MFC players.

Have a feeling this might be for all shots taken not just set shots W11.

I could not believe Clarry’s attitude when Spargo “took” his mark, he genuinely looked like a toddler who’d had his favourite toy taken away. And yet if I think if anyone had a choice between the two they’d go with Spargo every day of the week. Clarry’s set shots are disgraceful for a player of his ability. 

Brayshaw in the past has actually been really steady as a set shot player so I wonder what’s changed. Is it the higher aerobic expectations from playing wing taking its toll? It’s not an excuse by the way, we need players to be able to nail clutch goals and I honestly don’t know if we have any. I mean BB misses from a set shot he nailed at north every bloody day of the week!

We got away with our poor conversation rate early in the season, we’ve now seen it cost us wins against Adelaide, GWS, and the Hawks. 

Edited July 20, 2021 by Pates

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

59 minutes ago, Pates said:

I could not believe Clarry’s attitude when Spargo “took” his mark, he genuinely looked like a toddler who’d had his favourite toy taken away. And yet if I think if anyone had a choice between the two they’d go with Spargo every day of the week. Clarry’s set shots are disgraceful for a player of his ability. 

Brayshaw in the past has actually been really steady as a set shot player so I wonder what’s changed. Is it the higher aerobic expectations from playing wing taking its toll? It’s not an excuse by the way, we need players to be able to nail clutch goals and I honestly don’t know if we have any. I mean BB misses from a set shot he nailed at north every bloody day of the week!

We got away with our poor conversation rate early in the season, we’ve now seen it cost us wins against Adelaide, GWS, and the Hawks. 

And the worst part is Gus was devastated after the game and looking perplexed at what went wrong.  Well mate all you need to do is look at the set shot kicking, especially your own, and that will explain much of it.

Yes Pate I've already commented on the Clarry incident.  And this is another worry.  Ever since Macca failed to handball to a screaming free Tracc just outside the square and instead swung around on his right to kick it himself while being tackled (about 4/5 matches ago) the selfless sharing stuff we saw earlier in the season when we were beating all and sundry has slowly ebbed away to virtually zero.

Combine the two and it's resulted in a chipping away at unity, cohesion, then belief and ultimately form.

If Goody, the FD, Gawny and other leaders aren't aware of this, and on to it by now, we are in deep doggy doo. 

I'm also not that impressed with the re-entry of Viney so far.  For whatever reason, his body language since the return appears to me as an observer, rightly or wrongly, to be bloody awful.

Also, we need to decide do we want a plodding / straight ahead mid field to continue with the likes of Viney and AVB both in or do we bring in Melk for AVB to attempt to connect more out of the middle with forwards like Macca, BB and Fritta.

And do ANB and Viney hold their spots once (IF) Harmes gets back?  Could we bring Harmes in for Viney/ANB if one doesn't hit form (ANB a fair way off lately) and play Harmes in a wing / mid field role with Gus and bring Gus into the middle (say 50%ish) for some decent outside use and connection with the extractors in Tracc & Clarry?  Probably very unlikely at this late stage but just a thought.

The other very slim chance but worth a look is bringing in Baker for Gus for a few weeks and just see what that gives us on the non-Lingers wing.  I understand Baker probably doesn't have the defensive read and intercept capabilities of Gus but what he lacks there he might make up for with a speedier transition into the F50 to give better looks for our key and medium forwards.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Yes Pate I've already commented on the Clarry incident.  And this is another worry.  Ever since Macca failed to handball to a screaming free Tracc just outside the square and instead swung around on his right to kick it himself while being tackled (about 4/5 matches ago) the selfless sharing stuff we saw earlier in the season when we were beating all and sundry has slowly ebbed away to virtually zero.

 

Not sure about this. It seems that every week I see players overdoing the selfless bit and instead of taking a shot at goal themselves when in a good position to do so they attempt a pass off to another player who might be in a better position but we lose the ball in the process. Similarly, we often see one of the midfielders get first possession and instead of kicking forward when able to do so, handpass to another player who is not necessarily in a better position.

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

We got away with our poor conversation rate early in the season, we’ve now seen it cost us wins against Adelaide, GWS, and the Hawks. 

 

In the current era, average conversion rates are around 51.4% on 22.3 scoring shots per match — that is, teams have scored an average of 11.6 goals per match. For the purposes of this article goal accuracy or conversion rates is defined as Conversion Rate = Goals / (Goals + Behinds).

In 2021, we are averaging  1.5% less than  the competition norm. Our opponents are 3% above the expected norm.

Here is a break down of our percentage conversions per game, against opponents (losses/draw in red) vs their conversion, as well as a difference between the teams on the day, as well as a % difference from the norm (for our opponents)

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

20 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Not sure about this. It seems that every week I see players overdoing the selfless bit and instead of taking a shot at goal themselves when in a good position to do so they attempt a pass off to another player who might be in a better position but we lose the ball in the process. Similarly, we often see one of the midfielders get first possession and instead of kicking forward when able to do so, handpass to another player who is not necessarily in a better position.

Personally i believe those issues are a part of the drop off in cohesion and confidence (especially in kicking skills ....ability to hit up a target).  A drop off in confidence also resulting in player's willingness to take the game/opponenent on and instead pass off responsibility asap to someone else LDC.

This is where you occasionally need an injection of younger talent being brought into the mix as they tend to have no fear or very little vs some of the more experienced boys.  They also come in a little fresher and can bring an energy and attack on the ball (run and carry also) into the group that might be lacking otherwise.  They of course can also bring with them inexperience and lack of a match day tank which may impact the team in other ways, especially late into a match when fatigue sets in.

I see much of this aspect happening with the likes of Sydney and the Sons at the moment.  They are getting great drive from their rookies.  Look at the Hawks last week.  10 rookies that had played only 35 games or less.  About three or so had only played 3 to 5 matches (if the coverage commentators are to be believed).

Edited July 21, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

22 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Personally i believe those issues are a part of the drop off in cohesion and confidence (especially in kicking skills ....ability to hit up a target).  A drop off in confidence also resulting in player's willingness to take the game/opponenent on and instead pass off responsibility asap to someone else LDC.

This is where you occasionally need an injection of younger talent being brought into the mix as they tend to have no fear or very little vs some of the more experienced boys.  They also come in a little fresher and can bring an energy and attack on the ball (run and carry also) into the group that might be lacking otherwise.  They of course can also bring with them inexperience and lack of a match day tank which may impact the team in other ways, especially late into a match when fatigue sets in.

I see much of this aspect happening with the likes of Sydney and the Sons at the moment.  They are getting great drive from their rookies.  Look at the Hawks last week.  10 rookies that had played only 35 games or less.  About three or so had only played 3 to 5 matches (if the coverage commentators are to be believed).

"Sydney and the Sons" - sounds like the name of a R&B band.

[John Crow Batty 8,879]

I notice with too many set shots that players use up all their time, fiddle with the ball, over angst and grimace, eyes darting left right and centre and over think the situation. Why not just go back and move forward straight away to kick the goal? Look at old footage, players rarely wasted too much time in lining up for goal unless in a tight part of the ground. 

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

Not to mention, they take a mark 40 out and turn around and stroll away from the goals. Don't turn your back on the play!! It's as basic as a bowler not getting behind the stumps at cricket.

[picket fence 17,500]

22 minutes ago, John Crow Batty said:

I notice with too many set shots that players use up all their time, fiddle with the ball, over angst and grimace, eyes darting left right and centre and over think the situation. Why not just go back and move forward straight away to kick the goal? Look at old footage, players rarely wasted too much time in lining up for goal unless in a tight part of the ground. 

Absolutely spot on assessment

[george_on_the_outer 7,696]

Here is one of our own who could kick straight:

Big Bags (afl.com.au)

[picket fence 17,500]

Repeat Rinse Repeat Rinse etc etc