Jump to content

Featured Replies

 

That will change dramatically, West Coast play at home this week!

 

Adelaide +29, is that legit? That’s a huge number for only 2 rounds.

19 minutes ago, Forest Demon said:

Adelaide +29, is that legit? That’s a huge number for only 2 rounds.

25 of those are due to The Texan laying forward 50 tackles ?


There is no sensible and credible way to justify a differential of 45 between top and bottom after only 2 rounds.

Is there any breakup of the types of free kicks eg. out of bounds on the full vs free kicks earned at the contest, high tackles vs incorrect disposal vs holding the man vs interference in a marking contest etc?

I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

 

Adelaide count is quite pronounced but probably just an anomaly given just 2 games in. Other than than looks like a typical bell curve.

Probably runs counter to a lot of people's biases e.g Geelong get preferential treatment from the umps.

 

Edited by Better days ahead

I'm a bit confused - we've played Freo and Saints, Freo and Saints have played GWS in the two rounds.

The sum of Freo, Dees, GWS and Saints should then be zero as we collectively haven't played anyone else. But it's +1

Additional proof the AFL is doing everything it can for GWS (not just financially). 

 
11 hours ago, dworship said:

That will change dramatically, West Coast play at home this week!

How absolutely correct .I still vividly remember playing West Coast and Mitch Clark being manhandled by half their defence whenever he went for a mark and no kick being given  ..Our free kick total to half time .? .Somewhere between nil and zero .Not a single free .When the game was virtually over crowd stopped umpiring the match  we then started to get frees .Disgraceful.I cant understand why the Lions were upset at not getting the last minute free at Geelong .Did they think that the umpire would incur the wrath of the Geelong crowd ?.Not likely

4 hours ago, tiers said:

I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

More than likely, it will never happen to our great dismay. There are no clear signs that umpiring and free kicks to affect a game are under appropriate 'even playing field' management from the AFL.

Edited by Deemania since 56


4 hours ago, tiers said:

I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

What's to explain? Flip a coin enough times and you'll also get some strange patterns; that's just the nature of statistics.

Good umpiring doesn't mean an even free kick count. 2 rounds in, it's hardly surprising that there are a couple of outliers.

It's only when patterns emerge over time (e.g., West Coast having a positive free kick differential every year since the Triassic era), that claims of umpiring bias have any validity.

No so simple. The average number of free kicks per game has been falling in recent seasons to somewhere in the low 30s total for both teams.

With so few free kicks being awarded, for one team to have received 29 more than its opponents in only 2 games is more than a coin toss statistic. Say there are 30 in a match. For Adelaide to have received 29 more than their opponents  the numbers equate to 22.25 per game (total 44.5) vs 7.75 per game (total 15.5), a factor of nearly 3 times.

For once the Dees are all square although some of us one eyed supporter believe that the Adelaide distortion would be better if it was applied for the benefit of the Dees.

There is something more at play and it requires a better analysis than mine.

7 hours ago, In Harmes Way said:

I'm a bit confused - we've played Freo and Saints, Freo and Saints have played GWS in the two rounds.

The sum of Freo, Dees, GWS and Saints should then be zero as we collectively haven't played anyone else. But it's +1

Additional proof the AFL is doing everything it can for GWS (not just financially). 

No necessarily. One of the Texans 25 holding the ball frees was against the umpire during the round 1 St Kilda / GWS match when the umpire was collecting the ball for a throw in, so it's +1 to the Texan (who was barracking for Saints) and -1 to the umpire.

Edited by chookrat

The God of free kicks...and i thought it was a deceased Umpire.

  • Demonland changed the title to Free Kick Differential 2021

Hoping that free kick differential continues to head south for Geelong for at least 1 more week.

They should off-set all the free kicks against Geelong that weren't paid to the opps:  throws, dropping the ball, faking 'high' contact etc etc.  That would even the differential quite a bit.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero

The umpiring in the first half of our saints match was deplorable.

Strange how it evened up though.

I hope the MFC footy dept had a quiet word with the AFL umpires during the week about Oliver been held at every stoppage. 

After watching the Giants, I'm amazed they're +15 free kick differential. All I was off the ball sniping and playing the man.

Mind you, there were a lot of missed free kicks (in my biased humble opinion), so this could explain it.


1 hour ago, FarNorthernD said:

I hope the MFC footy dept had a quiet word with the AFL umpires during the week about Oliver been held at every stoppage. 

That is an occurrence that must be addressed - so far in Clarrie's career this has been an unaccountable constant and an absolute 'blind-spot' for umpires; in each game the Dees play this anomoly arises, and must surely be addressed, and acknowledged satisfactorily, not just haphazardly. As for the excesses of holding, bashing from behind, etc that Gawn experiences, we must question if the umpires are fit for purpose.

3 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

That is an occurrence that must be addressed - so far in Clarrie's career this has been an unaccountable constant and an absolute 'blind-spot' for umpires; in each game the Dees play this anomoly arises, and must surely be addressed, and acknowledged satisfactorily, not just haphazardly. As for the excesses of holding, bashing from behind, etc that Gawn experiences, we must question if the umpires are fit for purpose.

Blind-spot? Didn't Oliver get a number of off-the-ball free kicks against the Giants?

17 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Blind-spot? Didn't Oliver get a number of off-the-ball free kicks against the Giants?

In a very low priority, somewhat '...on occasion...'  The ratio of infringements to frees given to CO would be as low as 1: 10 - where only the most blatant, open-space misdemeanour was acknowledged, and late, as well. Just another episode inside a saga of 'allowable onfield abuse'.

 

#FreeKickWhoeverIsPlayingHawthornorGeelong 

Re; Clarrie's treatment.

Arms around the waist in the goal square is paid as a free kick even when there is no interference or impedence. What a laugh.

Arms around the waist that do impede Clarrie from  running to a ball up of throw in is not considered to be worthy of a free kick. With three umpires on the field it surely must be visible to one at least. Time for S Hocking to fix this up.

 


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • NON-MFC: Round 10

    The Sir Doug Nicholls Round kicks off in Darwin with a Top 4 clash between the Suns and the Hawks. On Friday night the Swans will be seeking to rebound from a challenging start to the season, while the Blues have the Top 8 in their sights after their sluggish start. Saturdays matches kick off with a blockbuster between the Collingwood and Kuwarna with the Magpies looking to maintain their strong form and the Crows aiming to make a statement on the road. The Power face a difficult task to revive their season against a resilient Cats side looking to make amends for their narrow loss last week. The Giants aim to reinforce their top-eight status, while the Dockers will be looking to break the travel hoodoo. The sole Saturday game is a critical matchup for both teams, as the Bulldogs strive to cemet their spot in the top six and the Bombers desperately want break into the 8. Sundays start with a bottom 3 clash between the Tigers and Kangaroos with both teams wanting to avoid the being in wooden spoon contention. The Round concludes with the Eagles still searching for their first win of the season, while the Saints look to keep their finals hopes alive with a crucial away victory. Who are you tipping and what are the best results for the Demons?

    • 18 replies
    Demonland
  • PREVIEW: Brisbane

    And just like that, we’re Narrm again. Even though the annual AFL Sir Doug Nicholls Round which commemorates the contributions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture to our game has been a welcome addition to our calendar for ten years, more lately it has been a portent of tough times ahead for we beleaguered Narrm supporters. Ever since the club broke through for its historic 2021 premiership, this has become a troubling time of the year for the club. For example, it all began when Melbourne rebranded itself as Narrm across the two rounds of the Sir Doug Nicholls Round to become the first club to adopt an Indigenous club name especially for the occasion. It won its first outing under the brand against lowly North Melbourne to go to 10 wins and no losses but not without a struggle or a major injury to  star winger Ed Langdon who broke his ribs and missed several weeks. In the following week, still as Narrm, the team’s 17 game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Dockers. That came along with more injuries, a plague that remained with them for the remainder of the season until, beset by injuries, the Dees were eliminated from the finals in straight sets. It was even worse last year, when Narrm inexplicably lowered its colours in Perth to the Waalit Marawar Eagles. Oh, the shame of it all! At least this year, if there is a corner to turn around, it has to be in the direction of something better. To that end, I produced a special pre-game chant in the local Narrm language - “nam mi:wi winnamun katjil prolin ambi ngamar thamelin amb” which roughly translated is “every heart beats true for the red and the blue.” >y belief is that if all of the Narrm faithful recite it long enough, then it might prove to be the only way to beat the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Sunday. The Lions are coming off a disappointing draw at Marvel Stadium against a North Melbourne team that lacks the ability and know how to win games (except when playing Melbourne). Brisbane are, however, a different kettle of fish at home and have very few positional weaknesses. They are a midfield powerhouse, strong in defence and have plenty of forward options, particularly their small and medium sized players, to kick a winning score this week after the sting of last week’s below par performance.

      • Haha
    • 9 replies
    Demonland
  • REPORT: Hawthorn

    There was a time during the current Melbourne cycle that goes back to before the premiership when the club was the toughest to beat in the fourth quarter. The Demons were not only hard to beat at any time but it was virtually impossible to get the better them when scores were close at three quarter time. It was only three or four years ago but they were fit, strong and resilient in body and mind. Sadly, those days are over. This has been the case since the club fell off its pedestal about 12 months ago after it beat Geelong and then lost to Carlton. In both instances, Melbourne put together strong, stirring final quarters, one that resulted in victory, the other, in defeat. Since then, the drop off has been dramatic to the point where it can neither pull off victory in close matches, nor can it even go down in defeat  gallantly.

    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • CASEY: Footscray

    At twenty-four minutes into the third term of the game between the Casey Demons and Footscray VFL at Whitten Oval, the visitors were coasting. They were winning all over the ground, had the ascendancy in the ruck battles and held a 26 point lead on a day perfect for football. What could go wrong? Everything. The Bulldogs moved into overdrive in the last five minutes of the term and booted three straight goals to reduce the margin to a highly retrievable eight points at the last break. Bouyed by that effort, their confidence was on a high level during the interval and they ran all over the despondent Demons and kicked another five goals to lead by a comfortable margin of four goals deep into the final term before Paddy Cross kicked a couple of too late goals for a despondent Casey. A testament to their lack of pressure in the latter stages of the game was the fact that Footscray’s last ten scoring shots were nine goals and one rushed behind. Things might have been different for the Demons who went into the game after last week’s bye with 12 AFL listed players. Blake Howes was held over for the AFL game but two others, Jack Billings and Taj Woewodin (not officially listed as injured) were also missing and they could have been handy at the end. Another mystery of the current VFL system.

    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • PREGAME: Brisbane

    The Demons head back out on the road in Round 10 when they travel to Queensland to take on the reigning Premiers and the top of the table Lions who look very formidable. Can the Dees cause a massive upset? Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Clap
      • Like
    • 169 replies
    Demonland
  • PODCAST: Hawthorn

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 12th May @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect the Demons loss to the Hawks. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

      • Thanks
    • 53 replies
    Demonland