Free Kick Differential 2021

[Demonland 73,895]

I'm shocked.

[dworship 3,343]

That will change dramatically, West Coast play at home this week!

[Nasher 33,617]

I’m not going to let pesky facts prevent me from saying Free Kick Hawthorn when I feel like winding up hawk mates though.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Adelaide +29, is that legit? That’s a huge number for only 2 rounds.

[chookrat 4,268]

19 minutes ago, Forest Demon said:

Adelaide +29, is that legit? That’s a huge number for only 2 rounds.

25 of those are due to The Texan laying forward 50 tackles ?

[tiers 2,875]

There is no sensible and credible way to justify a differential of 45 between top and bottom after only 2 rounds.

Is there any breakup of the types of free kicks eg. out of bounds on the full vs free kicks earned at the contest, high tackles vs incorrect disposal vs holding the man vs interference in a marking contest etc?

I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

 

[BDA 23,031]

Adelaide count is quite pronounced but probably just an anomaly given just 2 games in. Other than than looks like a typical bell curve.

Probably runs counter to a lot of people's biases e.g Geelong get preferential treatment from the umps.

 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Better days ahead

[In Harmes Way 7,842]

I'm a bit confused - we've played Freo and Saints, Freo and Saints have played GWS in the two rounds.

The sum of Freo, Dees, GWS and Saints should then be zero as we collectively haven't played anyone else. But it's +1

Additional proof the AFL is doing everything it can for GWS (not just financially). 

[kallangurdemon 551]

11 hours ago, dworship said:

That will change dramatically, West Coast play at home this week!

How absolutely correct .I still vividly remember playing West Coast and Mitch Clark being manhandled by half their defence whenever he went for a mark and no kick being given  ..Our free kick total to half time .? .Somewhere between nil and zero .Not a single free .When the game was virtually over crowd stopped umpiring the match  we then started to get frees .Disgraceful.I cant understand why the Lions were upset at not getting the last minute free at Geelong .Did they think that the umpire would incur the wrath of the Geelong crowd ?.Not likely

[Deemania since 56 6,774]

4 hours ago, tiers said:

I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

More than likely, it will never happen to our great dismay. There are no clear signs that umpiring and free kicks to affect a game are under appropriate 'even playing field' management from the AFL.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Deemania since 56

[Accepting Mediocrity 1,418]

4 hours ago, tiers said:

I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

What's to explain? Flip a coin enough times and you'll also get some strange patterns; that's just the nature of statistics.

Good umpiring doesn't mean an even free kick count. 2 rounds in, it's hardly surprising that there are a couple of outliers.

It's only when patterns emerge over time (e.g., West Coast having a positive free kick differential every year since the Triassic era), that claims of umpiring bias have any validity.

[tiers 2,875]

No so simple. The average number of free kicks per game has been falling in recent seasons to somewhere in the low 30s total for both teams.

With so few free kicks being awarded, for one team to have received 29 more than its opponents in only 2 games is more than a coin toss statistic. Say there are 30 in a match. For Adelaide to have received 29 more than their opponents  the numbers equate to 22.25 per game (total 44.5) vs 7.75 per game (total 15.5), a factor of nearly 3 times.

For once the Dees are all square although some of us one eyed supporter believe that the Adelaide distortion would be better if it was applied for the benefit of the Dees.

There is something more at play and it requires a better analysis than mine.

[chookrat 4,268]

7 hours ago, In Harmes Way said:

I'm a bit confused - we've played Freo and Saints, Freo and Saints have played GWS in the two rounds.

The sum of Freo, Dees, GWS and Saints should then be zero as we collectively haven't played anyone else. But it's +1

Additional proof the AFL is doing everything it can for GWS (not just financially). 

No necessarily. One of the Texans 25 holding the ball frees was against the umpire during the round 1 St Kilda / GWS match when the umpire was collecting the ball for a throw in, so it's +1 to the Texan (who was barracking for Saints) and -1 to the umpire.

Edited March 31, 2021 by chookrat

[Willmoy1947 4,225]

The God of free kicks...and i thought it was a deceased Umpire.

[Demonland 73,895]

I smell FREE KICK GEELONG coming up.

[BDA 23,031]

Hoping that free kick differential continues to head south for Geelong for at least 1 more week.

[Lucifers Hero 40,574]

They should off-set all the free kicks against Geelong that weren't paid to the opps:  throws, dropping the ball, faking 'high' contact etc etc.  That would even the differential quite a bit.

Edited April 6, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[leave it to deever 17,598]

The umpiring in the first half of our saints match was deplorable.

Strange how it evened up though.

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

I hope the MFC footy dept had a quiet word with the AFL umpires during the week about Oliver been held at every stoppage. 

[In Harmes Way 7,842]

After watching the Giants, I'm amazed they're +15 free kick differential. All I was off the ball sniping and playing the man.

Mind you, there were a lot of missed free kicks (in my biased humble opinion), so this could explain it.

[Deemania since 56 6,774]

1 hour ago, FarNorthernD said:

I hope the MFC footy dept had a quiet word with the AFL umpires during the week about Oliver been held at every stoppage. 

That is an occurrence that must be addressed - so far in Clarrie's career this has been an unaccountable constant and an absolute 'blind-spot' for umpires; in each game the Dees play this anomoly arises, and must surely be addressed, and acknowledged satisfactorily, not just haphazardly. As for the excesses of holding, bashing from behind, etc that Gawn experiences, we must question if the umpires are fit for purpose.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 17,076]

3 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

That is an occurrence that must be addressed - so far in Clarrie's career this has been an unaccountable constant and an absolute 'blind-spot' for umpires; in each game the Dees play this anomoly arises, and must surely be addressed, and acknowledged satisfactorily, not just haphazardly. As for the excesses of holding, bashing from behind, etc that Gawn experiences, we must question if the umpires are fit for purpose.

Blind-spot? Didn't Oliver get a number of off-the-ball free kicks against the Giants?

[Deemania since 56 6,774]

17 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Blind-spot? Didn't Oliver get a number of off-the-ball free kicks against the Giants?

In a very low priority, somewhat '...on occasion...'  The ratio of infringements to frees given to CO would be as low as 1: 10 - where only the most blatant, open-space misdemeanour was acknowledged, and late, as well. Just another episode inside a saga of 'allowable onfield abuse'.

[praha 11,253]

#FreeKickWhoeverIsPlayingHawthornorGeelong 

[tiers 2,875]

Re; Clarrie's treatment.

Arms around the waist in the goal square is paid as a free kick even when there is no interference or impedence. What a laugh.

Arms around the waist that do impede Clarrie from  running to a ball up of throw in is not considered to be worthy of a free kick. With three umpires on the field it surely must be visible to one at least. Time for S Hocking to fix this up.