Jump to content

Free Kick Differential 2021

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

 

That will change dramatically, West Coast play at home this week!

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    • Haha 4
    • Sad 1
     

    Adelaide +29, is that legit? That’s a huge number for only 2 rounds.

  • Quote
    • Like 5
    • Shocked 1
    • Angry 1
    19 minutes ago, Forest Demon said:

    Adelaide +29, is that legit? That’s a huge number for only 2 rounds.

    25 of those are due to The Texan laying forward 50 tackles ?

  • Quote
    • Shocked 1

    There is no sensible and credible way to justify a differential of 45 between top and bottom after only 2 rounds.

    Is there any breakup of the types of free kicks eg. out of bounds on the full vs free kicks earned at the contest, high tackles vs incorrect disposal vs holding the man vs interference in a marking contest etc?

    I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

     

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    Adelaide count is quite pronounced but probably just an anomaly given just 2 games in. Other than than looks like a typical bell curve.

    Probably runs counter to a lot of people's biases e.g Geelong get preferential treatment from the umps.

     

    Edited by Better days ahead

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    I'm a bit confused - we've played Freo and Saints, Freo and Saints have played GWS in the two rounds.

    The sum of Freo, Dees, GWS and Saints should then be zero as we collectively haven't played anyone else. But it's +1

    Additional proof the AFL is doing everything it can for GWS (not just financially). 

  • Quote
    • Like 1
     
    11 hours ago, dworship said:

    That will change dramatically, West Coast play at home this week!

    How absolutely correct .I still vividly remember playing West Coast and Mitch Clark being manhandled by half their defence whenever he went for a mark and no kick being given  ..Our free kick total to half time .? .Somewhere between nil and zero .Not a single free .When the game was virtually over crowd stopped umpiring the match  we then started to get frees .Disgraceful.I cant understand why the Lions were upset at not getting the last minute free at Geelong .Did they think that the umpire would incur the wrath of the Geelong crowd ?.Not likely

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    4 hours ago, tiers said:

    I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

    More than likely, it will never happen to our great dismay. There are no clear signs that umpiring and free kicks to affect a game are under appropriate 'even playing field' management from the AFL.

    Edited by Deemania since 56

  • Quote

    4 hours ago, tiers said:

    I look forward to the AFL's attempts to explain away these differentials.

    What's to explain? Flip a coin enough times and you'll also get some strange patterns; that's just the nature of statistics.

    Good umpiring doesn't mean an even free kick count. 2 rounds in, it's hardly surprising that there are a couple of outliers.

    It's only when patterns emerge over time (e.g., West Coast having a positive free kick differential every year since the Triassic era), that claims of umpiring bias have any validity.

  • Quote

    No so simple. The average number of free kicks per game has been falling in recent seasons to somewhere in the low 30s total for both teams.

    With so few free kicks being awarded, for one team to have received 29 more than its opponents in only 2 games is more than a coin toss statistic. Say there are 30 in a match. For Adelaide to have received 29 more than their opponents  the numbers equate to 22.25 per game (total 44.5) vs 7.75 per game (total 15.5), a factor of nearly 3 times.

    For once the Dees are all square although some of us one eyed supporter believe that the Adelaide distortion would be better if it was applied for the benefit of the Dees.

    There is something more at play and it requires a better analysis than mine.

  • Quote
    7 hours ago, In Harmes Way said:

    I'm a bit confused - we've played Freo and Saints, Freo and Saints have played GWS in the two rounds.

    The sum of Freo, Dees, GWS and Saints should then be zero as we collectively haven't played anyone else. But it's +1

    Additional proof the AFL is doing everything it can for GWS (not just financially). 

    No necessarily. One of the Texans 25 holding the ball frees was against the umpire during the round 1 St Kilda / GWS match when the umpire was collecting the ball for a throw in, so it's +1 to the Texan (who was barracking for Saints) and -1 to the umpire.

    Edited by chookrat

  • Quote

    The God of free kicks...and i thought it was a deceased Umpire.

  • Quote
    • Demonland changed the title to Free Kick Differential 2021

    Hoping that free kick differential continues to head south for Geelong for at least 1 more week.

  • Quote

    They should off-set all the free kicks against Geelong that weren't paid to the opps:  throws, dropping the ball, faking 'high' contact etc etc.  That would even the differential quite a bit.

    Edited by Lucifer's Hero

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    I hope the MFC footy dept had a quiet word with the AFL umpires during the week about Oliver been held at every stoppage. 

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    After watching the Giants, I'm amazed they're +15 free kick differential. All I was off the ball sniping and playing the man.

    Mind you, there were a lot of missed free kicks (in my biased humble opinion), so this could explain it.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    1 hour ago, FarNorthernD said:

    I hope the MFC footy dept had a quiet word with the AFL umpires during the week about Oliver been held at every stoppage. 

    That is an occurrence that must be addressed - so far in Clarrie's career this has been an unaccountable constant and an absolute 'blind-spot' for umpires; in each game the Dees play this anomoly arises, and must surely be addressed, and acknowledged satisfactorily, not just haphazardly. As for the excesses of holding, bashing from behind, etc that Gawn experiences, we must question if the umpires are fit for purpose.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    3 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

    That is an occurrence that must be addressed - so far in Clarrie's career this has been an unaccountable constant and an absolute 'blind-spot' for umpires; in each game the Dees play this anomoly arises, and must surely be addressed, and acknowledged satisfactorily, not just haphazardly. As for the excesses of holding, bashing from behind, etc that Gawn experiences, we must question if the umpires are fit for purpose.

    Blind-spot? Didn't Oliver get a number of off-the-ball free kicks against the Giants?

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    17 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

    Blind-spot? Didn't Oliver get a number of off-the-ball free kicks against the Giants?

    In a very low priority, somewhat '...on occasion...'  The ratio of infringements to frees given to CO would be as low as 1: 10 - where only the most blatant, open-space misdemeanour was acknowledged, and late, as well. Just another episode inside a saga of 'allowable onfield abuse'.

  • Quote
    •  

    #FreeKickWhoeverIsPlayingHawthornorGeelong 

  • Quote

    Re; Clarrie's treatment.

    Arms around the waist in the goal square is paid as a free kick even when there is no interference or impedence. What a laugh.

    Arms around the waist that do impede Clarrie from  running to a ball up of throw in is not considered to be worthy of a free kick. With three umpires on the field it surely must be visible to one at least. Time for S Hocking to fix this up.

     

  • Quote
    • Like 6

    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • NON-MFC: Round 15

      As the Demons head into their Bye Round, it's time to turn our attention to the other matches being played. Which teams are you tipping this week? And which results would be most favourable for the Demons if we can manage to turn our season around? Follow all the non-Melbourne games here and join the conversation as the ladder continues to take shape.

        • Thanks
      • 276 replies
      Demonland

    • REPORT: Port Adelaide

      Of course, it’s not the backline, you might argue and you would probably be right. It’s the boot studder (do they still have them?), the midfield, the recruiting staff, the forward line, the kicking coach, the Board, the interchange bench, the supporters, the folk at Casey, the head coach and the club psychologist  It’s all of them and all of us for having expectations that were sufficiently high to have believed three weeks ago that a restoration of the Melbourne team to a position where we might still be in contention for a finals berth when the time for the midseason bye arrived. Now let’s look at what happened over the period of time since Melbourne overwhelmed the Sydney Swans at the MCG in late May when it kicked 8.2 to 5.3 in the final quarter (and that was after scoring 3.8 to two straight goals in the second term). 

      • 3 replies
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Essendon

      Casey’s unbeaten run was extended for at least another fortnight after the Demons overran a persistent Essendon line up by 29 points at ETU Stadium in Port Melbourne last night. After conceding the first goal of the evening, Casey went on a scoring spree from about ten minutes in, with five unanswered majors with its fleet of midsized runners headed by the much improved Paddy Cross who kicked two in quick succession and livewire Ricky Mentha who also kicked an early goal. Leading the charge was recruit of the year, Riley Bonner while Bailey Laurie continued his impressive vein of form. With Tom Campbell missing from the lineup, Will Verrall stepped up to the plate demonstrating his improvement under the veteran ruckman’s tutelage. The Demons were looking comfortable for much of the second quarter and held a 25-point lead until the Bombers struck back with two goals in the shadows of half time. On the other side of the main break their revival continued with first three goals of the half. Harry Sharp, who had been quiet scrambled in the Demons’ first score of the third term to bring the margin back to a single point at the 17 minute mark and the game became an arm-wrestle for the remainder of the quarter and into the final moments of the last.

      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Gold Coast

      The Demons have the Bye next week but then are on the road once again when they come up against the Gold Coast Suns on the Gold Coast in what could be a last ditch effort to salvage their season. Who comes in and who comes out?

        • Haha
      • 120 replies
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: Port Adelaide

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 16th June @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect the Dees disappointing loss to the Power.
      Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
      Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • 33 replies
      Demonland

    • POSTGAME: Port Adelaide

      The Demons simply did not take their opportunities when they presented themselves and ultimately when down by 25 points effectively ending their finals chances. Goal kicking practice during the Bye?

        • Like
      • 252 replies
      Demonland
    View All