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2021 Herald Sun Predictions

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Last year I had the teams divided into four main groups:

- Top 4: Port, Lions, Cats and Tigers. These teams were at a higher level and could beat each other on the right day. 
 

- Gunning for the 8: Dees, Saints, Dogs, Pies, GWS.  Anyone of these 5 could have ended up in the 8 but 2 had to miss out. I had West Coast on their own. Definitely not top 4 but a cut above the “Gunning for the 8” group (context helped them). 
 

- Having a go: Freo, Blues, Dons, Suns, Hawks, Swans. Big group with some showing more improvement than others towards the end. 
 

- Hopeless: North and Crowd. 
 

Demons: When the FULL TEAM turned up to play FOUR FULL quarters, we could beat all the “Gunning for the 8” teams and give the top 4 teams a run for their money (but we weren’t at their level of skill, intensity, team work, strategy, etc). But when half our players made a poor effort and we fell asleep for full quarters, we’d struggle to beat “Having a go” teams.  See Cairns. 
 

A lot could happen this season, but my baseline scenario:

- Crows move up a group, hawks down a group. 
- Carlton and Freo move up a group, Pies and GWS to move down and Eagles to become part of the “Gunning for the 8” group.  This group will expand. Some will miss out by definition. 
- Saints to move up a group, and Cats floating between top 4 and “Gunning 8” groups, like eagles last year.

Where does that leave Melb? Realistically, we’re in the same Gunning for the 8 group as last year but if our forward line works and the FULL TEAM turns up to play FOUR FULL quarters EVERY week, we’re towards the top of this group and knocking on the top 4 door. That’s a big if. 
My two cents. 

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      On 03/03/2021 at 05:30, Nairobi_Demon said:

    Last year I had the teams divided into four main groups:

    - Top 4: Port, Lions, Cats and Tigers. These teams were at a higher level and could beat each other on the right day. 
     

    - Gunning for the 8: Dees, Saints, Dogs, Pies, GWS.  Anyone of these 5 could have ended up in the 8 but 2 had to miss out. I had West Coast on their own. Definitely not top 4 but a cut above the “Gunning for the 8” group (context helped them). 
     

    - Having a go: Freo, Blues, Dons, Suns, Hawks, Swans. Big group with some showing more improvement than others towards the end. 
     

    - Hopeless: North and Crowd. 
     

    Demons: When the FULL TEAM turned up to play FOUR FULL quarters, we could beat all the “Gunning for the 8” teams and give the top 4 teams a run for their money (but we weren’t at their level of skill, intensity, team work, strategy, etc). But when half our players made a poor effort and we fell asleep for full quarters, we’d struggle to beat “Having a go” teams.  See Cairns. 
     

    A lot could happen this season, but my baseline scenario:

    - Crows move up a group, hawks down a group. 
    - Carlton and Freo move up a group, Pies and GWS to move down and Eagles to become part of the “Gunning for the 8” group.  This group will expand. Some will miss out by definition. 
    - Saints to move up a group, and Cats floating between top 4 and “Gunning 8” groups, like eagles last year.

    Where does that leave Melb? Realistically, we’re in the same Gunning for the 8 group as last year but if our forward line works and the FULL TEAM turns up to play FOUR FULL quarters EVERY week, we’re towards the top of this group and knocking on the top 4 door. That’s a big if. 
    My two cents. 

    Nice first post ND. Jambo and karibuni sana Demonland. 

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      On 03/03/2021 at 05:44, Ethan Tremblay said:

    If we can go all season without losing a game I think we’re a good chance of winning the granny. 

    Rubbish.

    If we go though the season unbeaten the dees would almost certainly lose the Granny. Coz that would inflict the most pain

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      On 02/03/2021 at 00:44, binman said:

    Wow. 

    Rock bottom confidence about the dees. 

    18 of the last 20 Brownlow medallists came from finals sides.  Some have Petracca as the winner , yet Dees miss the 8. If he wins, we make finals.

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      On 03/03/2021 at 06:38, Demon17 said:

    18 of the last 20 Brownlow medallists came from finals sides.  Some have Petracca as the winner , yet Dees miss the 8. If he wins, we make finals.

    Agree. 3 points most often goes to the pre-eminent midfielder of the winning side.  If Trac wins the Charlie, it means we have probably won more games.  Most likely is finals if he scoops it

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      On 03/03/2021 at 03:45, spirit of norm smith said:

    Exactly.  I think we identified the forward firepower as the area of improvement. Sure the midfield skill and pace and delivery needs to get better but our forward line setup and conversion will be our key to where we finish in 2021. 

    As stated earlier it's not like the club hasn't tried to address our forward line issues in the last decade or more.  It just hasn't worked out! 

    The club must have thought that after the 2018 finals that all we needed to do was add in some medium sized forwards and small forwards to Hogan,  T-Mac & the Weid

    But again, all 3 possible/probable mainstays are no longer playing their part to how we'd want it to be played out (Hogan is gone of course)

    Right now we have loads of potential but nothing is resolved yet.  If & when it is resolved we will be a dangerous opponent

    Hopefully it all develops this season but Stafford has a big task as the forward line coach

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      On 03/03/2021 at 06:38, Demon17 said:

    18 of the last 20 Brownlow medallists came from finals sides.  Some have Petracca as the winner , yet Dees miss the 8. If he wins, we make finals.

    Converting I50’s into a winning score will make all difference for us so I reckon winning a Coleman would be as good if not better predictor of us playing and winning finals. I had high hopes that BB could win it but he’d need to play the 22 games you’d think.

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      On 03/03/2021 at 06:54, Macca said:

    As stated earlier it's not like the club hasn't tried to address our forward line issues in the last decade or more.  It just hasn't worked out! 

    The club must have thought that after the 2018 finals that all we needed to do was add in some medium sized forwards and small forwards to Hogan,  T-Mac & the Weid

    But again, all 3 possible/probable mainstays are no longer playing their part to how we'd want it to be played out (Hogan is gone of course)

    Right now we have loads of potential but nothing is resolved yet.  If & when it is resolved we will be a dangerous opponent

    Hopefully it all develops this season but Stafford has a big task as the forward line coach

    If all our A graders like Trac Clarry Max and near A BB and Fritta  some mids and Langers plus one small forward stars eg Kossie then we are a real chance to carry the role players along on a real journey.On the forward line and succeed with good or even large scores.

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    I confess I would’ve expected one of the “experts” to have a bold prediction of Melbourne finishing close to top 4. I suspect a lot of them see us finishing in the 7th-10th region again. 

    If we don’t get some wins on the board early I think the Yze to senior coach predictions could well come to pass. Then again I like the fact that we’re a bit under the radar with few expectations. 

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    Seems strange to me that some of them pick Petracca to win the Browlow but Demons to miss the 8

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      On 03/03/2021 at 07:16, 58er said:

    If all our A graders like Trac Clarry Max and near A BB and Fritta  some mids and Langers plus one small forward stars eg Kossie then we are a real chance to carry the role players along on a real journey.On the forward line and succeed with good or even large scores.

    I want to see Ben Brown & T-Mac as a combo with LJ floating in swapping roles with T-Mac from time to time.  The wing or high half forward with stints deep forward (in the middle occasionally as well) for T-Mac & LJ with Big Ben as the mainstay up forward

    Versatile players need to be used in a versatile way and we've got more than a few of those types on the list

    The Weid as back-up but the lad needs confidence more than anything else.  He's got the raw ability to be a good player

    But above all else all the likely candidates that can play tall in the forward line all need to get healthy & fit to be available for selection

    Agree on the midfielders but we need a number of others to have one of their better years in the same year!

    That's what happened with the Bulldogs in 2016 so it's all possible

    I like your optimism 58er ... tough task around here (that includes yours truly) but keep it up!

    Edited by Macca

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      On 03/03/2021 at 07:50, Macca said:

    I want to see Ben Brown & T-Mac as a combo with LJ floating in swapping roles with T-Mac from time to time.  The wing or high half forward (in the middle occasionally) for T-Mac & LJ with Big Ben as the mainstay up forward

    The Weid as back-up but the lad needs confidence more than anything else.  He's got the raw ability to be a good player

    But above all else all the likely candidates that can play tall in the forward line all need to get healthy & fit to be available for selection

    Agree on the midfielders but we need a number of others to have one of their better years in the same year!

    That's what happened with the Bulldogs in 2016 so it's all possible

    I like your optimism 58er ... tough task around here (that includes yours truly) but keep it up!

    Thanks Macca 

    Don't  want Tommy Near  the wing Need him up Forward  I reckon LJ can get the ball wherever it is. Yes it's a complete unknown what our position will be in 2021 but I am certain it's going to be higher than 2020.

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      On 03/03/2021 at 07:57, 58er said:

    Thanks Macca 

    Don't  want Tommy Near  the wing Need him up Forward  I reckon LJ can get the ball wherever it is. Yes it's a complete unknown what our position will be in 2021 but I am certain it's going to be higher than 2020.

    With T-Mac we've got to get him into the game early ... once he's had a number of touches he can go forward and become a real target

    Otherwise he tends to go cold as a mainstay forward and gets double-teamed out of the game

    We need to keep the opposition coaching box guessing so the slant should be to use our versatile players properly.  If fit Vanders can be a bit of a swingman as well.  The team needs to exert a bit of vigour from time to time and that can't be understated. 

    Fearless football was the early mantra from Goodwin so we need to see it if we're going to get into contention

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    Does anyone seriously think we are a top 4 chance, or a flag threat?

    9-12 is my thoughts.

    Geelong, Eagles, Colonwood, Brisbane, Port, Saints, Bulldogs and of course the Tigers all have legit claims of a finals berth, while there is usually at least one surprise.

     

    We are proven pretenders over many many decades, with a forward line that full of fill-ins or young kids and a bloke who cant kick straight to save himself. Hope T.Mac can prove to be more than a one season wonder at f.f

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      On 03/03/2021 at 08:19, Macca said:

    With T-Mac we've got to get him into the game early ... once he's had a number of touches he can go forward and become a real target

    Otherwise he tends to go cold as a mainstay forward and gets double-teamed out of the game

    We need to keep the opposition coaching box guessing so the slant should be to use our versatile players properly.  If fit Vanders can be a bit of a swingman as well.  The team needs to exert a bit of vigour from time to time and that can't be understated. 

    Fearless football was the early mantra from Goodwin so we need to see it if we're going to get into contention

    I think fit  Brown and Tmac is the best combination. Both have proved they have the talent. Other combinations are “ wishing and hopeing” 

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      On 03/03/2021 at 08:28, old dee said:

    I think fit  Brown and Tmac is the best combination. Both have proved they have the talent. Other combinations are “ wishing and hopeing” 

    I reckon relying on TMac is “wishing and hoping” OD. Hope i'm wrong though.

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      On 03/03/2021 at 08:37, Better days ahead said:

    I reckon relying on TMac is “wishing and hoping” OD. Hope i'm wrong though.

    At least we know he has done it in the past. 

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      On 03/03/2021 at 08:28, old dee said:

    I think fit  Brown and Tmac is the best combination. Both have proved they have the talent. Other combinations are “ wishing and hopeing” 

    I'd be promoting LJ as another but the crowded forward lines these days aren't necessarily suited to a raw 19yo

    He'll play no doubt because the kid has talent (he doesn't have a look around when attacking the ball) so being used as a utility is his go for now

    For the early part of the season we might have to make do with a more mobile forward line but Gawn & LJ can't both play on the ball (at least not all the time) so do we rotate the big fellas forward?  Maybe

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      On 03/03/2021 at 08:41, Macca said:

    I'd be promoting LJ as another but the crowded forward lines these days aren't necessarily suited to a raw 19yo

    He'll play no doubt because the kid has talent (he doesn't have a look around when attacking the ball) so being used as a utility is his go for now

    For the early part of the season we might have to make do with a more mobile forward line but Gawn & LJ can't both play on the ball (at least not all the time) so do we rotate the big fellas forward?  Maybe

    It would appear that is the plan Macca. It will be interesting to see if the maintain using Gawn in the forward line. He has played some very good games across the back line. 

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      On 03/03/2021 at 08:55, old dee said:

    It would appear that is the plan Macca. It will be interesting to see if the maintain using Gawn in the forward line. He has played some very good games across the back line. 

    They might place Gawn back when LJ is on the ball and LJ as a floating forward when Gawn rucks

    The key is getting Big Ben fit & firing and T-Mac into form

    If that were to happen then Fritsch & Melksham can slot into their roles whilst the small forwards can battle for 1 or 2 spots (Kozzie,  Spargo & the kid Chandler)

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      On 03/03/2021 at 08:19, Macca said:

    With T-Mac we've got to get him into the game early ... once he's had a number of touches he can go forward and become a real target

    Otherwise he tends to go cold as a mainstay forward and gets double-teamed out of the game

    We need to keep the opposition coaching box guessing so the slant should be to use our versatile players properly.  If fit Vanders can be a bit of a swingman as well.  The team needs to exert a bit of vigour from time to time and that can't be understated. 

    Fearless football was the early mantra from Goodwin so we need to see it if we're going to get into contention

    Vanders is so far off fitness and form he could not on any basis be selected.

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