On 03/12/2020 at 05:04, deelusions from afar said:

Is it just me or does it seem like this years draft is a giant lottery?  Obviously it always is but there seems to be about 30 names that could be a first rounder.  Obviously there's a group in the top 5, and then after that there's about 20 names to fit into the next 10 and on it goes...

Seems like it's not a bad year to have multiple picks in the top 30 (even with the academy / father son selections).... or (hopefully not for us) it could be a very even draft of low quality  

Yep I know kids who didn't get drafted last year and in the TAC last year would dominate against kids that are now being talked about as top 20-30 picks and they haven't played a game for 12 months while the other kids going to have to try there luck in the VFL/U19

  On 01/12/2020 at 12:29, Axis of Bob said:

Based on how Collingwood has set their picks in the mid teens, there may also be a strong chance that Collingwood simply isn't much interested in McInnes. Effectively, they'll take him for peanuts if he lasts past their picks, but they aren't that fussed to miss out. They have history don't this too, as they passed on James Stewart back in the day. 

It’s not so much that the Magpies aren’t interested in McInnes but rather, that they would like to pick him up cheaply without having to forgo either of their first two picks. 

If they don’t trade any further picks, they would have to be hoping that nobody bids for McInnes early enough for them to be forced to respond by using 14 or 16. Their problem is that it’s possibly line ball as to whether that will happen. I’m told that he impressed some judges at the recent training session for Victorian draft hopefuls.

Collingwood can therefore be expected to possibly involve themselves in some further trading on draft night. 

  On 03/12/2020 at 03:55, Nascent said:

Another draft chat with Cal Twomey for those that are interested.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/527152/chat-recap-a-draft-with-so-many-steals-new-name-in-top-20

Not a whole lot of information regarding the Dees except reiterating our links with Bailey Laurie with the Giants in the mix as well.

What I did find interesting was the mention of Conor Stone and Luke Pedlar as possible first round bolters. Don't know much about Pedlar but Stone sounds like an interesting "explosive" player that knows how to hit the score board playing mainly as a forward flanker in 2019. Apparently is versatile with clubs seeing him as having potential in the back half and through the middle. Wonder if we're one of the clubs keen.

If not, that's two more players into the first round unexpectedly that could see a slider drift out to us. Macrae was said to go early but Cal for the second time has mentioned that if he doesn't go early he could slide a bit into the later parts of the first round. Also talk of Tanner Bruhn more unlikely than likely to go top 10. Will he slide to our picks? Not sure he's the type of player we're after but on talent he would almost be too good to pass up if that did somehow happen.

Stone is an athletic medium who can play at either end who showed a lot of flashes of potential but tended to drift in and our of games. Sounds like he will be off the board before our pick with clubs as high as Essendon and Adelaide's pick 9, I think these clubs view his potential as a midfielder who could break games open.

Pedlar is a big body inside mid clearance type which we have plenty of but gathering plenty of interest in the mid first round, especially from the giants surprisingly. 

Sounds like we'll take Laurie with one of our firsts, just gotta hope Giants don't take him with their pick 16. Sounds like we are keeping our cards pretty close to the chest with Twomey unsure about who we like apart from Laurie. I think we will wait to see who gets through, sounds like Carroll definitely will get through and I'd hope we take him. Macrae a potential chance, I'd think for him to get through we'd need Bruhn and Macrae to be available at Richmond's pick so they'd take Bruhn, otherwise I don't think he'd get through Richmond's pick.

I agree that Cal Twomey is finding it harder himself this year but usually he gets good mail, especially close to the draft night.  His phantom draft is due on Monday so it’ll be interesting to see who he finally thinks that the Dees will take.  I’d say JT is a good poker player and probably not giving too much away.  Hopefully the Giants do pick a smokey or two with their picks.  

  On 03/12/2020 at 11:06, spirit of norm smith said:

I agree that Cal Twomey is finding it harder himself this year but usually he gets good mail, especially close to the draft night.  His phantom draft is due on Monday so it’ll be interesting to see who he finally thinks that the Dees will take.  I’d say JT is a good poker player and probably not giving too much away.  Hopefully the Giants do pick a smokey or two with their picks.  

Yep it would be an incredibly hard job especially this year with Vic kids not playing, Matt Balmer from FoxFooty also seems to have some mail of a few more first round bolters in Matt Allison and Liam Kolar who are both athletic key forward types, they've been linked to Richmonds first rounder. It seems a bit all over the place at the moment but hopefully there's some more clarity on where players will go by Twomey's phantom draft on Monday. 

Matt balmer has us taking Brayden Cook and Jack Carroll with his phantom draft.

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-draft-2020-afl-draft-afl-draft-order-phantom-draft-mock-draft-matt-balmer-top-draft-prospects-predictions-whispers-news/news-story/f7f474fb713ea7b1013a0163ce04d15e?__twitter_impression=true

 

  On 04/12/2020 at 01:33, dazzledavey36 said:

Matt balmer has us taking Brayden Cook and Jack Carroll with his phantom draft.

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-draft-2020-afl-draft-afl-draft-order-phantom-draft-mock-draft-matt-balmer-top-draft-prospects-predictions-whispers-news/news-story/f7f474fb713ea7b1013a0163ce04d15e?__twitter_impression=true

 

Fairly good result, hope we pick up a small forward with our second rounder (Bowey or Winder). Balmer seems big on Laurie being a late bolder and now reckons it's highly unlikely he gets to our picks. Watch if Macrae gets through Essendon, Adelaide, and North starting to think he's a real chance to get to our pick. 

  On 04/12/2020 at 01:33, dazzledavey36 said:

Matt balmer has us taking Brayden Cook and Jack Carroll with his phantom draft.

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-draft-2020-afl-draft-afl-draft-order-phantom-draft-mock-draft-matt-balmer-top-draft-prospects-predictions-whispers-news/news-story/f7f474fb713ea7b1013a0163ce04d15e?__twitter_impression=true

 

Probably the best possible outcome for us.

Macrae won’t make it to us, and these two are next best suited possible at our picks IMO.

The Age's description for Melb is:  2020-afl-national-draft

The Demons have been linked to a bid on Lions academy forward Blake Coleman but Collingwood could well have bid on him already with one of their first two selections.

The likes of Tom Powell, Liam Kolar and Ryan Angwin are all being spoken about as players who could fall around the range of the Dees' first two or three selections. Sources suggest the Demons are looking to trade pick 28 for a future selection. Outside midfielder Deakyn Smith is also eligible to the Demons as a next generation academy player.

Has anyone seen any discussion this draft on Deakyn?  I know there is a DL thread on him but can't find anything recent via google.  As an outside midfielder he could come in quite handy.

Edited December 4, 20204 yr by Lucifer's Hero

  On 04/12/2020 at 02:00, Gawndog98 said:

Fairly good result, hope we pick up a small forward with our second rounder (Bowey or Winder). Balmer seems big on Laurie being a late bolder and now reckons it's highly unlikely he gets to our picks. Watch if Macrae gets through Essendon, Adelaide, and North starting to think he's a real chance to get to our pick. 

Cal was saying today that he might get through to Richmond, the pick before us. That would suck.

  On 04/12/2020 at 03:18, Lucifer's Hero said:

The Age's description for Melb is:  2020-afl-national-draft

The Demons have been linked to a bid on Lions academy forward Blake Coleman but Collingwood could well have bid on him already with one of their first two selections.

The likes of Tom Powell, Liam Kolar and Ryan Angwin are all being spoken about as players who could fall around the range of the Dees' first two or three selections. Sources suggest the Demons are looking to trade pick 28 for a future selection. Outside midfielder Deakyn Smith is also eligible to the Demons as a next generation academy player.

Has anyone seen any discussion this draft on Deakyn?  I know there is a DL thread on him but can't find anything recent via google.  As an outside midfielder he could come in quite handy.

If Deakyn Smith were to come to the club it would be as a category b rookie only, but I think that's very unlikely.  He will probably be third year NAB League candidate and or Casey top up player with a view to auditioning for 2021.  Angwin fits the needs criteria the club is looking for and I would be absolutely amazed if he wasn't a player the club was looking at strongly, though mostly likely with one of its lower picks.

The interesting thing about trading 28 for a future pick is the paltry return Gold Coast just got for pick 27.  Can't see us doing that unless we got a 2nd rounder from a projected bottom eight side at the absolute minimum and there's the issue of which club has list spots that caters for an extra choice.

Edited December 4, 20204 yr by goodoil

  On 04/12/2020 at 04:03, goodoil said:

If Deakyn Smith were to come to the club it would be as a category b rookie only, but I think that's very unlikely.  He will probably be third year NAB League candidate and or Casey top up player with a view to auditioning for 2021.  Angwin fits the needs criteria the club is looking for and I would be absolutely amazed if he wasn't a player the club was looking at strongly, though mostly likely with one of its lower picks.

The interesting thing about trading 28 for a future pick is the paltry return Gold Coast just got for pick 27.  Can't see us doing that unless we got a 2nd rounder from a projected bottom eight side at the absolute minimum and there's the issue of which club has list spots that caters for an extra choice.

For Smith, I assume you mean category A, as B is for players who haven't played AFL for 3 years.

Interestingly, The Age article has linked Angwin to Geelong's pick 27 so he may not be around for our lower pick. 

Yeah, no idea what #28 will return us in 2021 picks as clubs seem to want to hang on to them.  It seems the Suns didn't care what they got for 27 as it was junk to them.  They simply wanted draft points for next year's academy players (I think their AFL concessions expire this year).  The pick they got from Geelong will net them about 300-400 points.

I would be surprised if we couldn't do much better than they did in a genuine value trade.  Nonetheless it seems it would be sold at a 'discount'.  Otherwise I guess, we take it to the draft this year.

Edited December 4, 20204 yr by Lucifer's Hero

  On 04/12/2020 at 04:18, Lucifer's Hero said:

For Smith, I assume you mean category A, as B is for players who haven't played AFL for 3 years.

Interestingly, The Age article has linked Angwin to Geelong's pick 27 so he may not be around for our lower pick. 

Yeah, no idea what #28 will return us in 2021 picks as clubs seem to want to hang on to them.  It seems the Suns didn't care what they got for 27 as it was junk to them.  They simply wanted draft points for next year's academy players (I think their AFL concessions expire this year).  The pick they got from Geelong will net them about 300-400 points.

I would be surprised if we couldn't do much better than they did in a genuine value trade.  Otherwise I guess, we take it to the draft this year.

NGA's can be Cat B rookies as well if they pass through the draft.  

Could be costly that Geelong trade if you are/The Age is right.   If we don't have players we like left at 28, maybe we parachute out of that spot but Id be surprised.  I think it's more usable from a trade sense maybe coupled with 18 or 19 to move up to get a Macrae or another desired player not likely to last to 18.  Again the problem with that is with compressed lists and quite a few teams having multiple first rounders, why would they want to trade down?

 

Another option rather than a simple flip of picks is to downgrade and get a lesser future pick in.

28 for Richmond's 36 and a future 4th or for Carltons 38 and a future 4th could be viable options. 

Richmond have Gold Coasts future 3rd so if we could work out a deal to acquire that we could get a good return for next year.

  On 04/12/2020 at 04:39, goodoil said:

1)NGA's can be Cat B rookies as well if they pass through the draft.  

2)Could be costly that Geelong trade if you are/The Age is right.   If we don't have players we like left at 28, maybe we parachute out of that spot but Id be surprised.  3)I think it's more usable from a trade sense maybe coupled with 18 or 19 to move up to get a Macrae or another desired player not likely to last to 18.  Again the problem with that is with compressed lists and quite a few teams having multiple first rounders, why would they want to trade down?

 

1) Thanks, forgot about the bit on NGA's passing thru the draft.

2) Do you mean costly to us?

3) I agree it would be a good strategy but as you say few clubs are prepared to trade out a top 15 pick.  This could be why #28 is on the table - assuming there is some substance to The Age comment.

I mused in the 'Are we finished yet?' thread that: "Should we trade 28 out it means we will use 50 (unless we split pick #19)".   A split could of #19 makes sense as it seems a lot of 'bolters' have flown into the top 20 this week so some earlier high prospects will slide and may include someone of interest to us.  And if we are keen on someone like Angwin who is getting some attention, it helps us leap frog clubs like Geelong.

Of course my musing is but one of the many scenarios.

Edited December 4, 20204 yr by Lucifer's Hero

  On 30/11/2020 at 23:59, whatwhatsaywhat said:

cal twomey and shifter sheehan have done a mock draft and have us selection jack carroll and conor stone with our two picks

I did the same with us taking them 2

First Round prediction based on club needs and available players
1. Essendon trade 6 & 7 to Crows take Logan McDonald 
2. Dogs match bid take Ugle Hagan
3. Roos - Elijah Hollands
4. Swans - Grainger Barrass
5. Hawks -Will Phillips
6. Suns - Archie Perkins
7. Crows - Riley Tilthorpe
8. Power match Crows bid for Lachie Jones
9. Crows - Tanner Bruhn
10. Essendon- Zac Reid
11. Crows - Braden Cook
12. Sydney match GWS bid for Braden Campbell 
13. GWS - Oliver Henry
14 North - Nick Cox
15. Freo - Heath Chapman
16. Pies match GWS bid for Reef Mcinness
17. GWS - Tom Powell
18. Pies - Jackson Callow
19. GWS - Finlay Mcrae
20. Tigers - Bailey Laurie
21. Dees - Tom Carroll 
22. Dees - Conor Stone
23. GWS - Matt Allison
24. Saints - Nathan O'Driscoll

Hoping DOWNIE lasts to our 3rd pick

Edited December 4, 20204 yr by Pennant St Dee

  On 04/12/2020 at 05:03, Lucifer's Hero said:

1) Thanks, forgot about the bit on NGA's passing thru the draft.

2) Do you mean costly to us?

3) I agree it would be a good strategy not but as you say few clubs are prepared to trade out a top 15 pick.  This could be why #28 is on the table - assuming there is some substance to The Age comment.

I mused in the 'Are we finished yet?' thread that: "Should we trade 28 it means we will use 50 (unless we split pick #19)".   A split could make sense as it seems a lot of 'bolters' have flown into the top 20 this week so some earlier high prospects will slide and may include someone of interest to us.  And if we are keen on someone like Angwin who is getting some attention, it helps us leap frog clubs like Geelong.

Of course my musing is but one of the many scenarios.

 

1) its actually the part of the NGA that makes the most sense, clubs giving some indigenous or ethnically backgrounded players they have ties to a chance that wouldn't ordinarily get it.

2) yes, could be costly in the sense that they have may have moved in front of us and in turn will take a player that we want with that pick ahead of ours, like an Angwin, if we are indeed keen on him as the Age have suggested.

3) I'd be surprised if we aren't progressive with pick 28, either using it to take a player we think can be a good player and to start developing this year or as some sort of trade up.  The only advantage I can see to trade it backwards would be as some way of getting involved in trades this year or next with Collingwood (Daicos) or Port Adelaide (Burgoyne), who have very good father-son prospects and may need points or be willing to trade out of good draft picks because those picks are redundant.  There is also the scenario whereby we trade 18 and 19 to move up the board using those picks.  In that scenario, keeping 28 makes sense as the second pick.   But I just can't see us not using it.  It's a nice pick in this draft and especially in some phantoms that are coming through, with Stone and Pedlar rising, the possibility of maybe getting a heavily-phantomed mix of Cook, Carroll, Bowey as a draft trifecta or something similar would be a desirable result under that circumstance.

Edited December 4, 20204 yr by goodoil

  On 04/12/2020 at 02:00, Gawndog98 said:

Fairly good result, hope we pick up a small forward with our second rounder (Bowey or Winder). Balmer seems big on Laurie being a late bolder and now reckons it's highly unlikely he gets to our picks. Watch if Macrae gets through Essendon, Adelaide, and North starting to think he's a real chance to get to our pick. 

If he gets past Essendon and Adelaide I wonder would we pull the trigger on a trade with North? Thoughts ?

  On 04/12/2020 at 03:32, Matt said:

Cal was saying today that he might get through to Richmond, the pick before us. That would suck.

It's very interesting because Cal seems to think Richmond are going to take a midfielder but Balmer thinks they will take tall forward (Allison or Kolar) which makes sense since they have Collier-Dawkins, Dow, Ross, and Graham who are all young mids. All the journo's seem to have conflicting mail on just about every pick. 

  On 04/12/2020 at 05:42, Colm said:

If he gets past Essendon and Adelaide I wonder would we pull the trigger on a trade with North? Thoughts ?

I wouldn't be against it but I wouldn't do it because I think there's a chance he gets through anyway, and I think him and Carroll are on about the same level who will be at our picks anyway. It does all depend on what Dons do at pick 8, Adelaide pick 9, and north pick 11 which I think all three of those pick will be mids. Say Essendon go Perkins at 8, Adelaide bid on McInnes at 9 and pies don't match, and then North go Powell over Macrae then it's a real real chance he slips through. i'll put up a phantom draft later showing how it could happen but really it's a fair bit of guesswork until it becomes more clear how it will play out.

  On 04/12/2020 at 05:45, Gawndog98 said:

It's very interesting because Cal seems to think Richmond are going to take a midfielder but Balmer thinks they will take tall forward (Allison or Kolar) which makes sense since they have Collier-Dawkins, Dow, Ross, and Graham who are all young mids. All the journo's seem to have conflicting mail on just about every pick. 

A lot of the mail the journos will be getting will be via player agents.  Getting info along the lines of "this club home visited and interviewed my player yesterday or did a medical or visited the facility" - stuff like that.  Obviously the clubs are interviewing multiple players and the clubs will have contingencies as well, so they could all possibly be right to some degree.   Many of the clubs will have an idea who they will get at various spots, but for most picks its impossible for them to be certain.  Some journos are guessing and will be wide of the mark as well and some may have really good inside contacts as well within clubs.  Back in the day, Matt Burgan was very good with Melbourne mail as an example.

Obviously is very very different from my last one, I'm not very confident in this happening because of all the conflicting reports on who will go where at the moment but this phantom draft more outlines Melbourne's best case scenario which this scenario is a possibility. Hoping there's some more clarity around each pick early next week when all the good mock drafts drop. Macrae and Carroll both inside/outside midfield types who are both great kicks and would correct our outside midfield deficiencies, would be a dream to have them both on the board at our picks. Either could play half back or half forward as well. Bowey could play anywhere and add a fair bit as a small forward to start his career, he's an elite kick which we don't have many of. Still have Baldwin getting to our pick but he's a bit of an unknown where he goes, either way he's a long term key position player who could be one of the best players in the draft if he got back to his under 16's form before he did 2 ACL's.

R1

1.     Western Bulldogs (NGA) – Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (VIC) – key forward

2.     Adelaide – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward/ruck

3.     North Melbourne – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward

4.     Sydney – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender

5.     Hawthorn – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward

6.     Gold Coast – Zach Reid (VIC) – key defender

7.     Essendon – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder

8.     Essendon – Nik Cox (VIC) – tall utility 

9.     Sydney (NGA) – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – balanced midfielder/small forward

10.  Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward

11.  Adelaide – Reef McInnes (VIC – bid not matched) – inside midfielder/medium utility

12.  Port Adelaide (NGA) – Lachlan Jones (SA) – general defender

13.  GWS – Heath Chapman (WA) – general defender

14.  North Melbourne – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder

15.  Fremantle – Oliver Henry (VIC) – medium utility

16.  GWS – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/balanced midfielder 

17.  Collingwood – Connor Stone (VIC) – medium utility

18.  GWS – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder 

19.  Brisbane (NGA) – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward

20.  Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward

21.  Richmond – Matt Allison (VIC) – key forward/outside midfielder

22.  Melbourne – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – balanced midfielder 

23.  Sydney (NGA) – Errol Gulden (NSW) – outside midfielder/small forward

24.  Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender

25.  Hawthorn (NGA) – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender

26.  GWS – Luke Pedlar (SA) – inside midfielder 

27.  St Kilda – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender

 

R2

28.  Adelaide – Caleb Poulter (SA) – balanced midfielder/general forward

29.  Adelaide – Liam Kolar (VIC) – key forward/outside midfielder

30.  GWS – Jackson Callow (TAS) – tall utility

31.  Geelong – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder

32.  Fremantle (NGA) – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender

33.  Melbourne – Jake Bowey (VIC) – small utility 

34.  North Melbourne – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder

35.  Fremantle (NGA) – Joel Western (WA) – small utility

36.  Carlton – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward

37.  Richmond – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder

38.  Carlton – Eddie Ford (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder

39.  Essendon (NGA) – Cody Brand (VIC) – key defender

40.  Adelaide (NGA) – Tariek Newchurch (SA) – small forward

41.  North Melbourne – Jack Ginnivan (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder

 

R3 

42.  Hawthorn – Max Heath (VIC) – ruck 

43.  Hawthorn – Josh Eyre (VIC – bid not matched) – tall utility 

44.  Richmond (NGA) – Maurice Rioli Jnr (NT) – small forward

45.  Hawthorn – Isiah Winder (WA) – small utility

46.  Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward

47.  Geelong – Henry Walsh (VIC) – ruck 

48.  Brisbane – Shannon Neale (WA) – ruck 

49.  Port Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder/general defender 

Didn't know NGA's could be category B rookies you learn something everyday. It would be good to see Smith as a category B rookie to fill up the list. No expectations on him we get him for nothing basically good move.

  On 04/12/2020 at 04:03, goodoil said:

Angwin fits the needs criteria the club is looking for and I would be absolutely amazed if he wasn't a player the club was looking at strongly, though mostly likely with one of its lower picks.

The interesting thing about trading 28 for a future pick is the paltry return Gold Coast just got for pick 27.  Can't see us doing that unless we got a 2nd rounder from a projected bottom eight side at the absolute minimum and there's the issue of which club has list spots that caters for an extra choice.

I'd like Angwin with our 3rd of 4th pick.  I asked Dean Duursma, to give me a quick rundown on twitter, this is what he came up with:

Dean Duursma

@50_48sc

Ryan is a highly skilled player who has grown a lot over the last couple of years. He has developed a good engine and finds space like a magician. I like him at high half forward. Takes a good contested mark and finishes beautifully. Very clean below knees.

Edited December 4, 20204 yr by ChaserJ

  On 04/12/2020 at 09:12, ChaserJ said:

I'd like Angwin with our 3rd of 4th pick.  I asked Dean Duursma, to give me a quick rundown on twitter, this is what he came up with:

 

Dean Duursma

 

@50_48sc

 

Replying to

@ChaserJay

@RileyBev

and

@AFLcomau

Ryan is a highly skilled player who has grown a lot over the last couple of years. He has developed a good engine and finds space like a magician. I like him at high half forward. Takes a good contested mark and finishes beautifully. Very clean below knees

Chaser, it's amusing that you contacted Dean Duursma, because there have been a lot of public comparisons between Ryan Angwin and Dean's son of Port Adelaide fame.  Angwin's one of a number of last year's bottom agers that with the benefit of some imagination of what his top age year development would have been like, you can see a promising player - a name to watch on draft night!