1 minute ago, JakovichScissorKick said:

Hes not a key forward, hes a ruckman

He has to be a key forward for the pick to work cos we already have Gawn.

1 minute ago, WERRIDEE said:

He has to be a key forward for the pick to work cos we already have Gawn.

And thats why the pick wont work

4 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

He has to be a key forward for the pick to work cos we already have Gawn.

Gawn is about to turn 28. Jackson will play from ages 22-32 with Gawn aged 32 and either retired or right near the end.

Dean Cox was 27 when Nic Nat was drafted.

Only the rarest of draftees make meaningful impact in year 1. Walsh, Rozee, Rioli. Even guys like Oliver play good and bad games and limited minutes. They aren't as good as you think, often they are playing just to satisfy fans and so coaches can say they play the kids.

From year 2 Jackson will be supporting a 29 year old Gawn.
From year 3 Jackson will be supporting a 30 year old Gawn.

 

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

The most talented player in the draft???

Well go get him! BUT I think he is light years away from that!

You simply cannot waste a pick on someone who cannot kick

Our team is full of them!!!

Mystifying!!??

This is what people don’t understand. We don’t need players from this years draft to make an immediate impact next year. We need the players who we traded for to make the immediate impact in 2020, along with improvement from our current stars. Nothing wrong with looking at the bigger picture with Jackson as our next star ruckman. There are 100 Youngs, he’s only a half back flanker. Let’s get some X factor.

We need to start looking at the bigger picture. 

Edited November 21, 20195 yr by Cheney

1 hour ago, JakovichScissorKick said:

Anyone else got the horrible feeling we a are going to completely [censored] up this draft?

Not now.

1 hour ago, JakovichScissorKick said:

Anyone else got the horrible feeling we a are going to completely [censored] up this draft?

Nope 

29 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Gawn is about to turn 28. Jackson will play from ages 22-32 with Gawn aged 32 and either retired or right near the end.

Dean Cox was 27 when Nic Nat was drafted.

 

 

I'd be surprised if Gawn was anywhere near finished at 32, injury notwithstanding. Plenty of ruckmen throughout history have been playing good footy into their mid 30's.  If there is a position where a mature body and a wise head thrives then it's the ruck. Salmon, both Madden's, Sandilands all played until 35 plus.

I don't think this means that we don't take Jackson, but I am struggling to see him become a meaningful ruck at Melbourne anytime in the next 5-6 years.

43 minutes ago, Dr evil said:

I think there is a very high chance we will bid on Green, the Giants will match the bid and this will be part of a ploy to ensure someone else we want gets down to pick 10. weather it be Ash, Young, Stephens or whoever 

We might bid on Green but I think if the Giants decide to match they will split the pick for 2 picks in the teens and match with one of those and later picks. We then have a new team picking at 4 making it very difficult to predict who they will take when we don’t even know who “they” are. 

3 hours ago, Swooper1987 said:

I'd be surprised if Gawn was anywhere near finished at 32, injury notwithstanding. Plenty of ruckmen throughout history have been playing good footy into their mid 30's.  If there is a position where a mature body and a wise head thrives then it's the ruck. Salmon, both Madden's, Sandilands all played until 35 plus.

I don't think this means that we don't take Jackson, but I am struggling to see him become a meaningful ruck at Melbourne anytime in the next 5-6 years.

Sandilands last played a full season at age 32, since then he's played 5 games, 10 games, 11 games, 6 games.

Slowly easing down from the 80%+ of ruck he currently plays to a move 50/50 is probably the best way to prolong Gawn's career. I could see Jackson playing 50% game time in the ruck by year 2 if not year 3. That's a lot faster than year 5/6.

7 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

B: JETTA, MAY, LEVER

HB: SALEM, PETTY, HIBBERD

C : LANGDON, OLIVER, TOMLINSON

HF: BENNELL, JACKSON, PETRACCA

F: MELKSHAM, T.MCDONALD, FRITSCH

FOLL: GAWN, VINEY, BRAYSHAW

IC: HARMES, JONES, VANDENBERG, BROWN

Weideman at home doing some gardening?

 

Edited November 21, 20195 yr by John Demonic

7 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Gawn is about to turn 28. Jackson will play from ages 22-32 with Gawn aged 32 and either retired or right near the end.

Dean Cox was 27 when Nic Nat was drafted.

Only the rarest of draftees make meaningful impact in year 1. Walsh, Rozee, Rioli. Even guys like Oliver play good and bad games and limited minutes. They aren't as good as you think, often they are playing just to satisfy fans and so coaches can say they play the kids.

From year 2 Jackson will be supporting a 29 year old Gawn.
From year 3 Jackson will be supporting a 30 year old Gawn.

 

Now that we've got a ruck stocks settled, the question that bugs me is: which premier young ruck will we draft in 2030 when Jackson is nearing his final years before retirement? We need to be pooling our resources into scouting the under 10's around the country in preparation for that draft. We can't win premierships, but we certainly know how to recruit the best ruckmen. Dwyer, Stynes, White, Jamar, Gawn, Jackson, ???

Not to be disparaging to our great rucks, but would it hurt to think about adding skillful kickers of the ball first and finding a mature age ruckmen without a top pick later, for a change. I would suggest the Tigers are happy they picked Martin with pick 3 instead of Gawn, and then filled their ruck stock with Nankervis from a junk pick 6 years later.

All of this talk about our premiership window being open next year and beyond, but suddenly the same believers are fawning over using our best first round pick in years on a great ruckman/serviceable forward in 2024+ ??

 

 

Edited November 21, 20195 yr by John Demonic

-

Edited November 21, 20195 yr by John Demonic

27 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

Weideman at home doing some gardening?

 

Has to attend to the never-ending weiding. 

6 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Sandilands last played a full season at age 32, since then he's played 5 games, 10 games, 11 games, 6 games.

Slowly easing down from the 80%+ of ruck he currently plays to a move 50/50 is probably the best way to prolong Gawn's career. I could see Jackson playing 50% game time in the ruck by year 2 if not year 3. That's a lot faster than year 5/6.

Would only happen if they could both play forward.  Unlikely but possible. He must be an exceptional talent because he certainly isn't a short to medium term need.

11 hours ago, Cheney said:

This is what people don’t understand. We don’t need players from this years draft to make an immediate impact next year. We need the players who we traded for to make the immediate impact in 2020, along with improvement from our current stars. Nothing wrong with looking at the bigger picture with Jackson as our next star ruckman. There are 100 Youngs, he’s only a half back flanker. Let’s get some X factor.

We need to start looking at the bigger picture. 

Some X fACTOR that can't kick??? Yer NOOOO!! WAY

13 hours ago, Cheney said:

This is what people don’t understand. We don’t need players from this years draft to make an immediate impact next year. We need the players who we traded for to make the immediate impact in 2020, along with improvement from our current stars. Nothing wrong with looking at the bigger picture with Jackson as our next star ruckman. There are 100 Youngs, he’s only a half back flanker. Let’s get some X factor.

We need to start looking at the bigger picture. 

There aren't 100 brilliant kicks in the draft.  Some very good ones with short passing and to a lessor degree medium.  Some just as skilled at one or the other or in front of goal.

There's so many 50/50 kicks in this draft in terms of hitting a target one minute and turning it straight over with the next.

There's probably only 20 or so with elite kicking skills (that's a stab in the dark i haven't taken notes) that will likely transition that to AFL level and even that's a lottery.

Young is the best at this skill over short to long distances which is what makes him a stand out prospect with ball in hand.  He can break an opposition defence apart with one amazing kick and open the whole game up for others to feed off and benefit from up the ground, sometimes that one kick making others look great as a result but they still have to finish to do so (which is a skill in itself and those players are just as necessary to find and develop of course).

He can hit an audacious target on a lead with opponent almost hand on shoulder close that many wouldn't consider trying or be capable of etc.

Other times he will just kick to an open obvious target plain vanilla.  But you know when he does it's going to get there almost always with very few blunders/clangers.

He has weaknesses but that one skill is a stand out.  IF he can build the rest of his game and take it to a decent level he should blossom at AFL.  Remembering that he had the best agility in the combine so he is also pretty slippery.  Hand ball is also elite as is decision making, releasing others into space to move the ball on effectively.

This is all at u18 level of course.  Whether that transitions to AFL level, who knows.  Part of that working no doubt comes back to the ability of a club to develop and improve.

Edited November 21, 20195 yr by Rusty Nails

19 hours ago, Redleg said:

Let me throw a cat amongst the pigeons, hypothetically speaking.

What if our real target is Green, with Jackson as our next choice.

We let it be known that we want Jackson. GWS trade up to be able to get Green and another top 5 player, believing we will take Jackson. If GWS also rate Jackson above Green and we nominate Green they get one or the other but not the second player, if they match a Green bid. 

This could have given us the chance to get Green if he is our target.

Could this be the case, or am I just looking for intrigue?

You spend too much time around the criminal community 

9 hours ago, John Demonic said:

 

All of this talk about our premiership window being open next year and beyond, but suddenly the same believers are fawning over using our best first round pick in years on a great ruckman/serviceable forward in 2024+ ??

 

 

It's all part of the Demon dynasty right through the 2020s.

4 hours ago, picket fence said:

Some X fACTOR that can't kick??? Yer NOOOO!! WAY

Dangerfield butchers it pretty regularly but he goes alright

 

i know it’s from 2017, but (btw Tomlinson is one of the best)...

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.zerohanger.com/champion-data-reveal-best-worst-kicks-2017-14091/amp/

Edited November 22, 20195 yr by Gawn's Beard

11 hours ago, John Demonic said:

which premier young ruck will we draft in 2030 when Jackson is nearing his final years before retirement?

Kalani White will already be on board by then.  Problem solved!

The club has been awful at recruiting. Id make a play for Green... then see what happens.

12 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Weideman at home doing some gardening?

 

Probably more effective there.

6 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

There aren't 100 brilliant kicks in the draft.  Some very good ones with short passing and to a lessor degree medium.  Some just as skilled at one or the other or in front of goal.

There's so many 50/50 kicks in this draft in terms of hitting a target one minute and turning it straight over with the next.

There's probably only 20 or so with elite kicking skills (that's a stab in the dark i haven't taken notes) that will likely transition that to AFL level and even that's a lottery.

Young is the best at this skill over short to long distances which is what makes him a stand out prospect with ball in hand.  He can break an opposition defence apart with one amazing kick and open the whole game up for others to feed off and benefit from up the ground, sometimes that one kick making others look great as a result but they still have to finish to do so (which is a skill in itself and those players are just as necessary to find and develop of course).

He can hit an audacious target on a lead with opponent almost hand on shoulder close that many wouldn't consider trying or be capable of etc.

Other times he will just kick to an open obvious target plain vanilla.  But you know when he does it's going to get there almost always with very few blunders/clangers.

He has weaknesses but that one skill is a stand out.  IF he can build the rest of his game and take it to a decent level he should blossom at AFL.  Remembering that he had the best agility in the combine so he is also pretty slippery.  Hand ball is also elite as is decision making, releasing others into space to move the ball on effectively.

This is all at u18 level of course.  Whether that transitions to AFL level, who knows.  Part of that working no doubt comes back to the ability of a club to develop and improve.

Your last para says it all RN. At senior level first you have to able to get the ball. We have recruited a number of very good kicks in the last decade but they have mostly amounted to nil. Because they did not make it at senior level. The trick to recruiting under age players is to be able to judge who will progress at senior level. Recruit is imo a very inexact science.

Edited November 22, 20195 yr by old dee

15 minutes ago, old dee said:

Your last para says it all RN. At senior level first you have to able to get the ball. We have recruited a number of very good kicks in the last decade but they have mostly amounted to nil. Because they did not make it at senior level. The trick to recruiting under age players is to be able to judge who will progress at senior level. Recruit is imo a very inexact science.

Very much so OD.  It's a big calculated gamble no doubt fraught with plenty of pot holes.

With regard to getting the ball & Young, one of my thoughts was if we took him as high as 3 then we probably need to be seeing him slowly move into the mid field to justify such a high pick.  While i have no idea whether that's likely or not i note that his contested possession rate in the Nats was 28.7%.  I seem to recall someone saying the magical figure to hold down a place in the mid was 30%.  If that is the case then there's a bit of work ahead but it seems he isn't far off either.

4 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Very much so OD.  It's a big calculated gamble no doubt fraught with plenty of pot holes.

With regard to getting the ball & Young, one of my thoughts was if we took him as high as 3 then we probably need to be seeing him slowly move into the mid field to justify such a high pick.  While i have no idea whether that's likely or not i note that his contested possession rate in the Nats was 28.7%.  I seem to recall someone saying the magical figure to hold down a place in the mid was 30%.  If that is the case then there's a bit of work ahead but it seems he isn't far off either.

He was played as a quarterback for Vic Country during the carnival due to his elite kicking and decision making. His role was to hang back and be fed the ball to setup play. As a player, he's definitely not afraid of winning his own ball. He's no Morton/Toumpas etc.

At Dandenong this year, he played more midfield time and his contested possession rate was 48%. in 2018 his contested possession rate was 52%. Those are high numbers. To give you comparisons to our current players, that's higher than both Harmes and Brayshaw, and roughly the same as Petracca. There are zero concerns about his contested ability, and it's why he's got scope to move into the midfield as well as play defence. 

It's just a shame it doesn't seem like we'll be seeing him in red and blue. I'll be watching his career with interest, as I've seen him play live multiple times this year and he's one of the most appealing players to come through in the past few years IMO. I hope Jackson turns out to be a freak for us!