41 minutes ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

Why do Giants need picks after 3 if we deal that pick to them (which I've taken you're implying here) Gold Coast for sure wont be placing a bid on Tom Green. Once they get to 3 they're in the box seat to land him. What I can't see is the Hawks giving up 11 which they'll use on McGinness. Despite that, the most logical scenario I can see is:

Hawthorn out: 11

GWS out: 6, Bonar, Patton

Melb out: 3, 26

Hawthorn in: Bonar, Patton, 26

GWS in: 3, 42

Melb in: 6, 11

Later pick swaps would have to come into it to balance it out, but at the base of it I reckon that's pretty fair

Hawthorn giving up far too much for a couple of late 2nd/3rd round pick types.

I could see the Hawks doing 11 and late picks for GWS' future first and Bonar/Patton instead of pick 26, but you don't go from 11 to 26 without something valuable thrown in. Bonar/Patton just aren't worth that level of drop.

I wouldn't be overly keen on 3 and 26 for 6,11 because I'm not sure in this draft if 11 and 26 are all that different. We'd have to get some upgrades to use 3rd and 4th picks if that's the case.

 

Just now, DeeSpencer said:

Hawthorn giving up far too much for a couple of late 2nd/3rd round pick types.

I could see the Hawks doing 11 and late picks for GWS' future first and Bonar/Patton instead of pick 26, but you don't go from 11 to 26 without something valuable thrown in. Bonar/Patton just aren't worth that level of drop.

I wouldn't be overly keen on 3 and 26 for 6,11 because I'm not sure in this draft if 11 and 26 are all that different. We'd have to get some upgrades to use 3rd and 4th picks if that's the case.

 

As much as people keep saying "its such a deep draft that picks x,y,z in the 2nd round arent that different to 1st round picks" is a bit reductive. Clubs will have their intended draftees in mind to fill a certain position. A few others on here have said it much better, but if we're trading 3 to 6 and 11 we can afford to draft a player on a more needs basis (e.g. gun small forward) which may not be available come pick 26, rather than just grabbing the best player that could be superfluous to our current needs. I'd be more than happy to part with 26 in a deal that landed us 6 and 11 that got us some gun outside run and forward craft rather than another mid at pick 3 and a development player at 26.

1 hour ago, Dees247 said:

12 & 18 are worth more than 6, so GWS must be after our pick. Also, if they don’t have enough points for Green as well, they just loose points next year, & can still take Green & a player at 3

Interesting point.

I wonder if the AFL has considered what happens if GWS trade away their 2020 1st rounder this year - their 2020 2nd and 3rd rounders just get downgraded to 3rd & 4th rounders? Weak "penalty" they may be happy to live with.
I'm sure GWS would tolerate a year in 2020 where they take the bare minimum of 3 late picks and essentially opt out of a weak draft. 

Or do they have academy selections?

Edited October 14, 20195 yr by Mach5

35 minutes ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

As much as people keep saying "its such a deep draft that picks x,y,z in the 2nd round arent that different to 1st round picks" is a bit reductive. Clubs will have their intended draftees in mind to fill a certain position. A few others on here have said it much better, but if we're trading 3 to 6 and 11 we can afford to draft a player on a more needs basis (e.g. gun small forward) which may not be available come pick 26, rather than just grabbing the best player that could be superfluous to our current needs. I'd be more than happy to part with 26 in a deal that landed us 6 and 11 that got us some gun outside run and forward craft rather than another mid at pick 3 and a development player at 26.

Drafting for needs is dangerous at any spot. The most important objective with pick 3 is to get a high quality player regardless of position. If we can do that at pick 6 (and I think we can) then that’s good too, but pick 3 gives us more certainty. 

11 is more likely to get a nice player than 26 but not by a huge margin. To take the risk at moving back from 3 I want certainty with the other half of the deal. 

Yes we lack quality in the forward line but we are more than 1 or 2 kids away. 

As long as we are able to get Kemp and one of Serong/Flanders I would be happy.

I would love to get involved in upgrading pick 26 slightly and think Gold Coast could use it in a number of trades. They are at an impass with both greenwood and Ahchee. We send picks 26 and 50 along with billy stretch who there has been some interest in for pick 20 and 58. 

Hawks trade pick 11 and 42 for gws Patton, Bonar, and 2020 gws 1st round pick. 

Hawks can then wait for a bid on McGuinness and match it and then trade back into the draft using that future first.

Gws trade picks 6 and 11 for 3 and 58. 

That is a cost discrepancy  in our favour of about pick 29. But they need pick 3 to make all their previous trades make sense. 

We don’t have to trade and make it all perfectly equal. They benefit more out of having pick 3 than us. 

 

We we will only use 3 picks anyway due to list spots. I imagine they keep the fourth until pre season of pick up a delisted free agent like Tory Dickson. 

A pick haul of 6,11,20 - equals 3 of kemp, young, Stephens, weightman or Taylor. 

Make it happen.

Edited October 14, 20195 yr by Eillih

1 hour ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

I don't think you can lump HWSNBN into the same basket as Bonar who was drafted only 2 years ago and hasnt suffered a nearly career ending leg injury

You mean like the two knee recos he's already had?

6 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

You mean like the two knee recos he's already had?

Apologies then, were these as a junior though? I genuinely looked through all the recentnews stories around him and found nothing about acl damage.

9 minutes ago, AaronDaveyChipsAndGravey said:

Apologies then, were these as a junior though? I genuinely looked through all the recentnews stories around him and found nothing about acl damage.

ACL's were pre-draft, he managed to get back from his second to play some decent TAC Cup footy.

Impressed with his speed and power at draft combine and there have been no injury issues in his two years on the GWS list. 

Was seen as a draft bolter in his draft year. Hasn't yet lived up to expectations

 

https://amp.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/why-gws-will-feel-more-comfortable-if-sydney-trades-pick-5-for-joe-daniher/news-story/d2383897da8ea7505206f0d4e881531d?__twitter_impression=true

 

Sounds like this article may allude to GWS' plans for pick 6, but I can't access it...

Edited October 14, 20195 yr by Good Lord George

5 minutes ago, Good Lord George said:

 

https://amp.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/why-gws-will-feel-more-comfortable-if-sydney-trades-pick-5-for-joe-daniher/news-story/d2383897da8ea7505206f0d4e881531d?__twitter_impression=true

 

Sounds like this article may allude to GWS' plans for pick 6, but I can't access it...

Fluff piece.
Says that Sydney & Adelaide are both very keen, having visited Green's home in Canberra.
Landsburger is assuming Essendon wouldn't be interested and that might increase the chances of Green slipping past 6.
Yeah, nah.

6 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Fluff piece.
Says that Sydney & Adelaide are both very keen, having visited Green's home in Canberra.
Landsburger is assuming Essendon wouldn't be interested and that might increase the chances of Green slipping past 6.
Yeah, nah.

Isn't Green exactly what Essendon need? An inside bull?

There are too many AFL journalists with no idea...

Edited October 14, 20195 yr by Good Lord George

32 minutes ago, Good Lord George said:

Isn't Green exactly what Essendon need? An inside bull?

There are too many AFL journalists with no idea...

 

I thought the same thing myself.

Any idea who Landsberger supports? Maybe hoping Green gets there!
Otherwise, very confusing.

7 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

 

I thought the same thing myself.

Any idea who Landsberger supports? Maybe hoping Green gets there!
Otherwise, very confusing.

He’s a bulldog. His old man is one of their club doctors

I don't know if this has been floated before and can't be bothered reading 27 pages to find out. What would people think of Peter Wright and Jack Martin as a package? I have a feeling we need to use a first round pick this year, but if we sent picks 3 and 26 their way in exchange for Wright, Martin and 15? 

21 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I don't know if this has been floated before and can't be bothered reading 27 pages to find out. What would people think of Peter Wright and Jack Martin as a package? I have a feeling we need to use a first round pick this year, but if we sent picks 3 and 26 their way in exchange for Wright, Martin and 15? 

Not a fan. Both have been underachievers and looked a bit soft IMHO

1 hour ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I don't know if this has been floated before and can't be bothered reading 27 pages to find out. What would people think of Peter Wright and Jack Martin as a package? I have a feeling we need to use a first round pick this year, but if we sent picks 3 and 26 their way in exchange for Wright, Martin and 15? 

I'd be okay with this. ?

38 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I don't know if this has been floated before and can't be bothered reading 27 pages to find out. What would people think of Peter Wright and Jack Martin as a package? I have a feeling we need to use a first round pick this year, but if we sent picks 3 and 26 their way in exchange for Wright, Martin and 15? 

Both are just average and although Wright has upside, I would stick with 3.

I can’t see GC trading him either after he re-committed. 

1 hour ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I don't know if this has been floated before and can't be bothered reading 27 pages to find out. What would people think of Peter Wright and Jack Martin as a package? I have a feeling we need to use a first round pick this year, but if we sent picks 3 and 26 their way in exchange for Wright, Martin and 15? 

I would rather go to the draft with high picks, than trade in either of those two players. Plus the Suns would want to keep Wright, as they find it so hard to attract talent, especially with players of his age.

Starting to think we won't split our pick and just head into the Draft with pick 3. 

13 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Starting to think we won't split our pick and just head into the Draft with pick 3. 

I think any offer for the pick was always going to come late, but it is hard to see anyone being able to offer us something of interest.

GWS have an issue in that if they were to give us Pick 6 and a player, they won't actually have enough mid range picks to match a bid of Green without going into deficit. 

 

28 minutes ago, Watts the matter said:

I think any offer for the pick was always going to come late, but it is hard to see anyone being able to offer us something of interest.

GWS have an issue in that if they were to give us Pick 6 and a player, they won't actually have enough mid range picks to match a bid of Green without going into deficit. 

 

I think we'll need to add later picks/swap this years later picks for next years to give them the points they need to match the Green bid. It won't be as simple as 3 for 6+whatever. It'll need to be more like 3+3rd round pick+4th round pick for 6+teen pick/player.

GWS pretty much have to trade for pick 3 for their strategy to work for them, otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for pick 6. 

I’d be surprised if they aren’t most of the way to negotiating a deal with us already, but no deal will probably happen until some of the other pieces have fallen into place and the available pieces for trade are known.

22 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

GWS pretty much have to trade for pick 3 for their strategy to work for them, otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for pick 6. 

I’d be surprised if they aren’t most of the way to negotiating a deal with us already, but no deal will probably happen until some of the other pieces have fallen into place and the available pieces for trade are known.

Also worth noting that whilst player trades finish on Wednesday, picks can be traded up until Nov 22. And then again on draft night.

Edited October 14, 20195 yr by Moonshadow