Farewell Jesse Hogan

[qarocks 107]

I'd be disgusted if we traded Hogan now. If we didn't get two firsts at least, that would be embarrassing to say the least.

Freo can GAGF, Hogan is happy to stay and if used wisely, can improve our side so much. Dont need May.

Hogan > May by a gigantic amount.

Keep Hogan out of the goal square and we win.

[qarocks 107]

20 minutes ago, Neitz the Great said:

I am sure this will get done. 

Freo are all over the shop but they'll pull their heads in due to the weight of the external noise

Hogan for 5 + 23 

5 + 23 to the crows for 8 + 13

8 to GC for May 

And go fish for what we do with 13.

It has to be two firsts minimum or GTFO.

Lever out of contract - two firsts.

Gibbs 28yo - two firsts.

GWS want two firsts for shiel.

+ how many more examples?

If we took anything less than that, it would be one of the worst trades of all time. Hogan stays unless freo pay up.

[Cards13 9,117]

2 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Hogan will play off half back next year, a solid inside source told me about an hour ago. Also told me last week that Tyson was gone for Pruess. 

So i will watch closely. 

“The club is not unhappy” his words...

Im sure in the hours since Freo pulled up stumps Goody has been able to work out his plans and discuss with Hogs in Bali?

[Dr. Gonzo 24,144]

51 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Plus, Peter Bell said that they 'cannot meet our trade demands'.

He's making out as if we are asking for four first rounders, three seconds, two thirds and a partridge in a pear tree.

It's rubbish.  What we've said we will take, which is the pick they get for Neale and #23, is more then reasonable and easily doable from their end.  I don't know what Bell has been drinking but the bloke needs to get off it, and quickly.

Hope he stays on it.

[Sir Why You Little 36,961]

16 minutes ago, Cards13 said:

Im sure in the hours since Freo pulled up stumps Goody has been able to work out his plans and discuss with Hogs in Bali?

Plans A B and C i am sure were worked out depending on what transpired 

[Moonshadow 17,675]

Jesse Hogan: MFC AA centre half BACK 2019

[Gator 17,261]

26 minutes ago, qarocks said:

I'd be disgusted if we traded Hogan now. If we didn't get two firsts at least, that would be embarrassing to say the least.

Freo can GAGF, Hogan is happy to stay and if used wisely, can improve our side so much. Dont need May.

Hogan > May by a gigantic amount.

Keep Hogan out of the goal square and we win.

This "two firsts" is a crock of $%#^.

5 and 23 is better than 16 and 17, which are "two firsts".  And it's better than 11 and 16.

Thankfully, the smart people at the club will be assessing any offer on its merits and what it can be turned into and they won't be mindlessly humming in their head "two firsts", "two firsts".

[qarocks 107]

3 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Plans A B and C i am sure were worked out depending on what transpired 

For sure. We already saw Hogan move up the ground this year.

If he can sneak inside 50 every now and then and get 1 on 1, watch out.

In the goal square with 2 blokes on him - no.

[Willmoy1947 4,081]

Taking Freo out of the equation, there are two things that need to be taken care of. The first one is Contract for Hogan, and for at least two more years on existing. By the way on this weekend.The second is if the first isn't done, we have only done a dance with one Club.

So there is unfinished business in my book..... 

[qarocks 107]

Just now, ProDee said:

This "two firsts" is a crock of $%#^.

5 and 23 is better than 16 and 17, which are "two firsts".  And it's better than 11 and 16.

Thankfully, the smart people at the club will be assessing any offer on its merits and what it can be turned into and they won't be mindlessly humming in their head "two firsts", "two firsts".

This is true, however MFC should not except either 5+23, 16+17 or 11+16.

5 + next years first is a better starting point. we need something closer to two top 10 picks.

[McQueen 17,864]

3 minutes ago, ProDee said:

This "two firsts" is a crock of $%#^.

5 and 23 is better than 16 and 17, which are "two firsts".  And it's better than 11 and 16.

Thankfully, the smart people at the club will be assessing any offer on its merits and what it can be turned into and they won't be mindlessly humming in their head "two firsts", "two firsts".

Why are you still even giving this air?

[Aus in Engerland 75]

37 minutes ago, qarocks said:

It has to be two firsts minimum or GTFO.

Lever out of contract - two firsts.

Gibbs 28yo - two firsts.

GWS want two firsts for shiel.

+ how many more examples?

If we took anything less than that, it would be one of the worst trades of all time. Hogan stays unless freo pay up.

Stop claiming Gibbs went for two firsts as a standalone argument. It is not true. Carlton also gave up 2018 picks 21 and 40, which in draft points value are more than pick 16. If you want to get real say that Adelaide gave up pick 10 and future pick 28 for Gibbs and swapped pick 16 for future picks 21 and 40 (about the same points).

But back on topic. 

Freo as usual have been a bunch of tool merchants over the whole process, but there is every chance it will still get done. Given that MFC have apparently admitted to be willing to have accepted pick 6 and a second round selection for Hogan it could work very simply. Failmantle pull their fingers out of their collective ***** and accept Brisbane pick 5 for Neale. A fair offer. They then give that pick and the pick 23 they got from Port to MFC for Hogan.

Edit - and has been noted by some, pick 5 and 23 (a 1st and 2nd rounder) is better than picks 16 and 18 (2 x 1st rounders)

Deal is then done and we can all go and have a nice cup of tea.

Edited October 12, 2018 by Aus in Engerland
Addition of point re draft value.

[Gator 17,261]

4 minutes ago, McQueen said:

Why are you still even giving this air?

Firstly, I don't understand the question.

Secondly, why do you care ?

[Redleg 40,815]

What part of “ we will not be pursuing JH “ is not clear?

They are out of any JH deal.

[Lord Neville X Flash 275]

4 minutes ago, Redleg said:

What part of “ we will not be pursuing JH “ is not clear?

They are out of any JH deal.

Most people think they will renege on that if the Neale trade happens

Edit: thats also not the words Freo used, they were much more cryptic 

Edited October 12, 2018 by Lord Neville X Flash

[McQueen 17,864]

3 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Firstly, I don't understand the question.

Secondly, why do you care ?

Firstly, do you think this can still play out?

Secondly, I rate your opinion, even though you come across as a full of yourself flogger sometimes.

[jayceebee31 759]

18 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Jesse Hogan: MFC AA centre half BACK 2019

Makes good sense....did well in this position as a youngster.I watched him play spectacularly of West Aust under 18 .Actually he was drafted as a 17 year old playing in this position.

[Demon Disciple 12,063]

10 minutes ago, Aus in Engerland said:

Edit - and has been noted by some, pick 5 and 23 (a 1st and 2nd rounder) is better than picks 16 and 18 (2 x 1st rounders)

Deal is then done and we can all go and have a nice cup of tea.

I'm Sorry but if we lose Hogan for pick 5 and 23, i would not be happy. One could argue that it would end up being May + KK + 23, but even then Hogan alone is worth more than that.

He is a true CHF (not FF). Heck even if we play him at CHB his value to the team would be just as important (a true CHF/B swingman). He has been through a rotten period in his life recently (lost his father, had to overcome testicular cancer, then after all that miss out on finals due to injury).

If we can get him to re-commit to the Dees, we find ourselves so far ahead (and closer to that elusive pucking premiership) than if he were to leave by the end of trade week.

Edited October 12, 2018 by Demon Disciple

[Gator 17,261]

2 minutes ago, McQueen said:

Firstly, do you think this can still play out?

Secondly, I rate your opinion, even though you come across as a full of yourself flogger sometimes.

Sometimes ?  I see myself as a miserable pr!ck all of the time.  I'm grumpy more than a "flogger", but each to their own.

I have no idea what will happen, but my preference is for Hogan to go if it will land May. 

I cannot accept that Hogan wants to leave when we're finally a top 4 club to go to a bottom 4-6 club.  He's spent nearly a third of his life in Melbourne and if he was single minded about a flag he wouldn't leave.

I reckon I've been one of Hogan's biggest supporters, but when you lose me you lose me.  Entering his prime, having done the hard yards, he wants to go to a [censored] club ?  Move him on.  And posters here want to "get around" him.  Please.  

Gut feel ?  Wednesday 8.30pm is a long way away in trade terms.  60/40 purple.

[deanox 9,897]

1 hour ago, dworship said:

Hopefully someone will sit Jesse down without his Manager and explain the first rules of negotiation.

1. What are the needs of the other side?

2. Always look for the "Blue" Do I need to explain what the "Red" is!  Take a bow Dorks!

3. Do your due diligence eg pressure points, hopes vs wants.

4. Only seriously low ball and potentially insult the the other party when having addressed the above 3 and being in a position of power and even then do it with grace and honesty.

5. Never give your hand away by making things public until you are sure of the outcome.

6. It's ok to withhold, it's not ok to mislead. (Caveat: Unless you absolutely know you won't get caught out)

7. The best and easiest negotiations are Win/Win

I could go on but by now you might see that there is one side that has known what they are doing and if JH doesn't recognise that then I will be happy to see him cut lose next year. As a friend often says "You can't put brains in monuments".

Disclaimer: Yes, I have significant training and experience in this area and I have had negotiations break down and people walk away.     Never have I had a feeling that the people walking away didn't think I was not to be trusted or that our time had been wasted.

 

Exactly right.  Bell effectively has an option to trade out Neale for Hogan and change. Because the are no other gun key forwards the market and pick 5 is a good deal for Neale, his best alternative to accepting this negotiated trade is walking away (like he seems to have), in which case he is left with a player who doesn't want to be there, no key forward and pick 23.

He is better off paying a bit overs and kicking in Hogan, a player you can build a team around). Pay 5 and 11. They have heaps of other top picks and will have next year too.

Unless he thinks they are going to bounce up the ladder, and just needs to keep Neale and snare Hogan and they are there,  but that would be a strange perception. 

[RalphiusMaximus 6,018]

So as things stand right now...

I think Hogan has shown great honesty and integrity in the way he's conducted himself.  We don't know when the offer was made, or if Freo came to him or he went to them.  What we do know is that they offered to use their pick six and a later pick to bring him to the club on a big contract.  We know that Jesse came to the club and was open and honest with them.  He's lost his Father, he's had cancer and he would like to go home if possible.  Those last two words are very important.  We see a constant stream of players (Kelly anyone?) making public demands to be traded, trying to force their club to give them what they want at any cost and taking away their ability to bargain effectively.  Jesse could have done that and the media would have been right with him.  Instead, he's only spoken to the club and his manager, kept out of it and let them do their jobs without interference.  He has shown respect to the club and given them the room to make the best possible deal for themselves, even agreeing that they would not trade him unless a suitable deal could be reached. 

The MFC have also conducted themselves well and professionally.  We've seen time and time again that the top clubs don't mess around, they identify the target they want and they get the deal done.  If they need to pay a little more than might be warranted they do so, because they have a reason for picking those targets.  The MFC have identified that they need someone to play on the monster forwards, guys like Hawkins and Brown who have single-handedly torn us apart in the past.  With Jesse asking for a trade home, they identified a target and what they need to trade for him, then made an open and fair offer to Fremantle, even telling them that they could not budge on that deal because it was tied to May.  This is a definitive display of good faith bargaining.  They price they asked was not over the top and it was entirely within Fremantle's ability to pay. 

All of this should have gone off without a hitch.  The handshake agreement was already in place.  The whole deal could have been done on day one without involving the Neale to Brisbane trade.  Instead, Peter Bell decided to bignote himself.  He took the MFC's professional, good faith bargaining as a sign of desperation and thought he could play idiotic games and get more for himself (not for his club, that's long since taken a back seat to his ego). Rather than taking the win/win he was offered and showing the industry that he is a professional who can get the job done, he tried to shaft two clubs and right now is looking like the worst sort of amateur. 

As for value, even with questions, however contrived they may be, about his foot, Jesse is the best young KPF in the game.  If you compare his numbers to any of the other young stars he has them covered.  This is reflected in his Supercoach and AFL Fantasy price, higher than any of his peers.  This in a side that has lost the majority of it's games every season he has played before this one.  There is no doubt that the club is perfectly happy to keep him on our list. 

As for people being happy to see him leave, I think it's a simple equation.  We are in a position where we can cover his absence if we need to. His absence won't necessarily cost us games even if his presence would make them easier to win.  Our inability to stop monster forwards on the other hand HAS cost us games.  It's not that anyone values May as a better player than Hogan, or would do a direct swap.  It's that May covers a huge weakness on the list, and losing Hogan wouldn't create one.  I would love to Keep him on our list.  I'd love to see him play his entire career with us.  But if he leaves, we can cover the loss and possibly get fill a hole in our list at the same time. 

[Beetle 4,601]

7 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I reckon I've been one of Hogan's biggest supporters, but when you lose me you lose me.  Entering his prime, having done the hard yards, he wants to go to a [censored] club ?  Move him on.  And posters here want to "get around" him.  Please.  

Spot on. The damage is done, regardless of the outcome.

[deanox 9,897]

41 minutes ago, ProDee said:

This "two firsts" is a crock of $%#^.

5 and 23 is better than 16 and 17, which are "two firsts".  And it's better than 11 and 16.

Thankfully, the smart people at the club will be assessing any offer on its merits and what it can be turned into and they won't be mindlessly humming in their head "two firsts", "two firsts".

Agree with this.  It isn't "what is he worth" it is "is the trade more valuable than the alternative".

If Hogan said "I'm going this year or next", his maximum value to us is actually "one year of playing plus his trade value next year when out of contract" not "league best KPF". Of course we could back ourselves to increase future value by convincing him to stay, but that's a gambit.

I'd be happy with 5 and 23 if that turned to 8 and 13 and then May and 13. Or if 5 and 23 became May, 23 and 24. Because I think May is valuable to us but not pick 5 valuable to us (as I've made it pretty well known I personally think key defender is 2nd or 3rd on our needs, but understand others rate that differently).

[darkhorse72 1,903]

The basically sums it up.  From the AFL website wrap for today

"That's why the Dockers have been circling him for so long.  

And that's why it would be disastrous if they let him go when he's finally gettable just because they want a 'win' rather than a 'win-win'. "

 

 

[Dirts 429]

10 minutes ago, deanox said:

Exactly right.  Bell effectively has an option to trade out Neale for Hogan and change. Because the are no other gun key forwards the market and pick 5 is a good deal for Neale, his best alternative to accepting this negotiated trade is walking away (like he seems to have), in which case he is left with a player who doesn't want to be there, no key forward and pick 23.

He is better off paying a bit overs and kicking in Hogan, a player you can build a team around). Pay 5 and 11. They have heaps of other top picks and will have next year too.

Unless he thinks they are going to bounce up the ladder, and just needs to keep Neale and snare Hogan and they are there,  but that would be a strange perception. 

Tim Kelly 

Geelong offered pick 11 for Kelly. 

Bell is a dick. They are on a hope. Kelly’s management said wce only. Freo are shite