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Farewell Jesse Hogan


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3 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

Any conspiracy theorists out there think that Croc Media and AFL trade radio might be trying to delay a few things to make this evenings coverage actually interesting!

I could see Matt Thompson trying to trip up someone in a corridor on Hutchy's orders!

Imagine if all these big trades get done by 5 pm.... three hours *LIVE* at AFL house looking at a forlorn looking SImon Lethlean waving around wads of cash to an empty room.

I can't imagine what they could broadcast in any case.  It's not as if the cameras will eavesdrop on the actual negotiations.  So I'd expect a lot of clips of players highlights and repititions of stuff thst could be read in print in 2 minutes..

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39 minutes ago, RedButMostlyBlue said:

Rock/hard place is exactly what this is.

And that's a perfect definition of negotiation. Some people think it's defined as getting what you think something is worth, but that does not take into account the other party, and the fact that both parties will not come to the table with equal bargaining power. It might look like we have the upper hand with a gun, contracted player, but that's clearly not all that's in play here. If it was, we would have received our 2 first rounders last week.

Also we are all judging the value of Hogan as an isolated asset,  not as part of our list. 

Hogan on his own: highest value.

Hogan to a list with 2 other KPFs, plus Gawn who can drift forward: less value.

Hogan, who we believe will leave next year, to a list with 2 other KPFs, plus Gawn who can drift forward: less value

Hogan, who we believe will leave next year, to a list with 2 other KPFs, plus Gawn who can drift forward, and the risk that another KPF will leave if Hogan doesn't: less value

Hogan, with a potentially serious foot injury that could impact performance next year and who we believe will leave next year, to a list with 2 other KPFs, plus Gawn who can drift forward, and the risk that another KPF will leave if Hogan doesn't: less value

 

When I refer to "value" I mean the value to us. 

So we need to define what we value Hogan at, with respect to all scenarios and scenario factors.  Then we need to consider what our trade partner values Hogan at. If there is a cross over, then a deal can be made and all parties will achieve a win-win and be satisfied. Within the zone of potential agreement the will be "the least we are prepared to accept" and "the most they are prepared to pay. Ideally, both parties want to get as close to the other parties maximum for "best outcome".

Either isolated asset value or the "best outcome" is often how the media and public judge overs/unders, but the negotiator will judge it against the value they rated the asset at to the current list. 

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2 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Puzzle pieces falling into place. Let's hope there are still nice biscuits left in the jar for us. See what I did there. I'll get my coat.

Got my cup of tea and butternut snaps...all waiting....bring it on!!  

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7 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

I hope Bell emerges walking bow legged.

As long as he doesn’t get shafted.

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