Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

14 minutes ago, DubDee said:

once you factor in a mortgage, private health insurance, grocery prices, he won't have much left!

Petrol, electricity, gas, water, rego

[Demons11 7,128]

4 minutes ago, Mondê said:

No need to be a [censored] about it.

It's a legitimate question, 50 goal per season key position forwards don't grow on trees. The jury is still out on Weid, as well as our entire mid size forward fleet with the exception of Melksham.

Take your point it was a tad over the top but I just think if Hogan stays we lose Weed.  Weed was already being courted by a couple of clubs.  

Granted Hogan is a better player but he also seems like he will go home at some stage, so may as well strike while the irons hot and get maximum impact. 

[beelzebub 23,390]

Re tax. Unless it's changed there is actually provision by the ATO to treat certain kinds of earnings differently. Elite sports used to be ( might still be ) such a one.

Essentially earnings can be spread over time. It's far more complex but that's the gist.

The Point ? Jesse earning 300-400k more elsewhere p.a.. will still be a large difference.

[Damo 3,445]

Those waiting for a quick answer should realise that many BIG trades end up waiting for other smaller ones to go through.  8.30pm on Wednesday, October 17 is the end of the trade period. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-10/when-is-the-2018-afl-trade-period

 

 

[SFebes 4,884]

3 minutes ago, deelighted3 said:

Karl Langdon on SEN just said spoke to Hogan's mum he's going nowhere staying in Melbourne 

It's a sword fight between Denham and Langdon, both unwanted species. We will find out later today either way.

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

The word I am getting is that Hogan is not looking for a trade this year, but would not say no if one comes up to Freo.  Hogan has indicated he wishes to play out his contract but is yet to decide whether he will sign a new contract with Melbourne or Freo.

He has not and is not expected to ask to be traded this year.

How I would play this is as follow:

Do not trade Hogan this year unless something massively stupid overs comes up. 

• With Hogan we are in the Premiership window next year.  Many Demonlanders badly underrate Hogan.
• We may win a Premiership with him next year.  It is unlikely, certainly less likely without him.
• Unless there is some sort of disaster Hogan will have the same currency next season as he does this season.  Possible more.
• West Coast will likely join the bidding for 2020, delaying gives them 12 months to prepare, further increasing his value.
• Hogan is not a RFA until 2021 so there is no fear of him just leaving.
• Hogan may choose to stay at Dees over the coming 12 months.
• Most importantly this will give the Dees 12 months to work on recruiting Kelly. It would give us the picks and the salary cap to secure Kelly. The two top 10 picks we receive for Hogan can be used to get Kelly.

So I say roll the dice. Dont trade him this season. More upside to wait.

 

 

Edited September 27, 2018 by Grand New Flag

[Olgreybeard49 261]

24 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

For a start he pays tax at 49% and he pays a management company min of 2.5%. No one is dangling a $5m cheque.

At the risk of adding a boring factual component - the tax position is probably better than that due to sportsperson averaging, basically a provision that recognises the relatively short high earning period and allows spreading income over time. This is not advice, boring disclaimer, boring disclaimer that normally runs for 17 pages more.

Much more interesting - how do we use the 2 first round draft picks the deal would take?

[SFebes 4,884]

How did Hogan getting traded turn into a taxation argument......? lol

[Bang Bang Bang 5,850]

There's talk of Freo trading pick 4 to Port for 8+9. That helps us.

[SFebes 4,884]

8 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

The word I am getting is that Hogan is not looking for a trade this year, but would not say no if one comes up to Freo.  Hogan has indicated he wishes to play out his contract but is yet to decide whether he will sign a new contract with Melbourne or Freo.

He has not and is not expected to ask to be traded this year.

How I would play this is as follow:

Do not trade Hogan this year unless something massively stupid overs comes up. 

• With Hogan we are in the Premiership window next year.  Many Demonlanders badly underrate Hogan.
• We may win a Premiership with him next year.  It is unlikely, certainly less likely without him.
• Unless there is some sort of disaster Hogan will have the same currency next season as he does this season.  Possible more.
• West Coast will likely join the bidding for 2020, delaying gives them 12 months to prepare, further increasing his value.
• Hogan is not a RFA until 2021 so there is no fear of him just leaving.
• Hogan may choose to stay at Dees over the coming 12 months.
• Most importantly this will give the Dees 12 months to work on recruiting Kelly. It would give us the picks and the salary cap to secure Kelly. The two top 10 picks we receive for Hogan can be used to get Kelly.

So I say roll the dice. Dont trade him this season. More upside to wait.

 

 

But we won't get 2 x top 10 picks next year for Hogan, that's the point and has been all along.

[DeeZone 10,483]

1 hour ago, Dappa Dan said:

Were are you getting this "let" thing from?

Did the Crows "let" Lever move to the demons?

Players leave clubs all the time to return to their home state. There's not "letting" in it. If he's going to leave anyway, you WANT him to tell you a year in advance, while he's contracted, so you can get a fair price for him when he walks.

Jeezus.

IF -  Jesse says " I no longer want to be an MFC player and I want to go home to play on slippery surfaces and get heaps of free kicks" - THEN so be it BUT until he SAY's it I am not Listening..............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deemania since 56 6,772]

12 minutes ago, SFebes said:

Don't worry, Preuss will boot 100+ next year boys.

Love it, Febes! Great attitude.

We all know we'd miss Hogan enormously and I still doubt that he would leave. However, with just a little nous applied, in tandem with some focussed back-up, second tier talent reviews. preparation and selections, we have a potent forward line and a very potent backline in the ether for next year and because of their age(s), many years to come.

We certainly will not be so 'single player focussed' to beat other teams in the competition right across the field; rather,  we will be a team of immense power and game control right across the field - forward, defence and of course, midfield, and ruck with mighty utility options either end. Lever, Preuss and Stretch with a full and tough pre-season across the whole team will assure us of that outcome. Betcha.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

37 minutes ago, Mondê said:

What happens if one of Weid or TMac suffer a serious injury next? What KPF depth do we have? 

We have Tim Smith and, if he comes, Preuss can play a bit of tall forward.

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

1 minute ago, SFebes said:

But we won't get 2 x top 10 picks next year for Hogan, that's the point and has been all along.

Of course we will. We could even do better if Hogan has a massive year and/or WC enter.  He may be out of contract in 2019 but he is not a RFA until 2021. There is little to no downside currency risk.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,457]

11 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

The word I am getting is that Hogan is not looking for a trade this year, but would not say no if one comes up to Freo.  Hogan has indicated he wishes to play out his contract but is yet to decide whether he will sign a new contract with Melbourne or Freo.

He has not and is not expected to ask to be traded this year.

How I would play this is as follow:

Do not trade Hogan this year unless something massively stupid overs comes up. 

• With Hogan we are in the Premiership window next year.  Many Demonlanders badly underrate Hogan.
• We may win a Premiership with him next year.  It is unlikely, certainly less likely without him.
• Unless there is some sort of disaster Hogan will have the same currency next season as he does this season.  Possible more.
• West Coast will likely join the bidding for 2020, delaying gives them 12 months to prepare, further increasing his value.
• Hogan is not a RFA until 2021 so there is no fear of him just leaving.
• Hogan may choose to stay at Dees over the coming 12 months.
• Most importantly this will give the Dees 12 months to work on recruiting Kelly. It would give us the picks and the salary cap to secure Kelly. The two top 10 picks we receive for Hogan can be used to get Kelly.

So I say roll the dice. Dont trade him this season. More upside to wait.

 

 

That would be a great outcome if true. Freo are likely to still have a top 5 pick next year and Hogan would still have to be traded there (as you say he is not a FA although will be out of contract).

Are you sure he isn't a RFA until 2021? My understanding for the last few years has been the year he spent with us but ineligible for the senior list counts as tenure towards his FA status. I remember the issue coming up a few years ago for one of the Suns/Giants pre-selections who were taken underage and spent a year with them before going on the senior list (Shiel, Cameron etc). Would be great if someone could clear this up, I don't want to spread false info but I am certain that was the AFL's position.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

FWIW, Karl Langdon just mentioned on SEN that he bumped into Jesse's mum outside Optus Stadium last week and "bombarded her with questions". She said Jesse loves living in Melbourne, he was homesick initially, but given his dad's death, does not have that drawcard anymore. He said she told him she loves coming to Melbourne city about 6 times per year to visit Jesse (I thought she lived in Melbourne???). Langdon flippantly added Hogan would be more likely to go to another Melbourne based club than to WA.

This is Karl Langdon, though, so grain of salt.

[SFebes 4,884]

4 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

Of course we will. We could even do better if Hogan has a massive year and/or WC enter.  He may be out of contract in 2019 but he is not a RFA until 2021. There is little to no downside currency risk.

Freo would hold the cards next year, there's always the threat of the draft, I'd rather pick 5 and 6 this year thanks, at least we know what we'll get.

[layzie 34,374]

Once and for all. Is Hogan a RFA next year or not?

[GCDee 3,200]

16 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

The word I am getting is that Hogan is not looking for a trade this year, but would not say no if one comes up to Freo.  Hogan has indicated he wishes to play out his contract but is yet to decide whether he will sign a new contract with Melbourne or Freo.

He has not and is not expected to ask to be traded this year.

How I would play this is as follow:

Do not trade Hogan this year unless something massively stupid overs comes up. 

• With Hogan we are in the Premiership window next year.  Many Demonlanders badly underrate Hogan.
• We may win a Premiership with him next year.  It is unlikely, certainly less likely without him.
• Unless there is some sort of disaster Hogan will have the same currency next season as he does this season.  Possible more.
• West Coast will likely join the bidding for 2020, delaying gives them 12 months to prepare, further increasing his value.
• Hogan is not a RFA until 2021 so there is no fear of him just leaving.
• Hogan may choose to stay at Dees over the coming 12 months.
• Most importantly this will give the Dees 12 months to work on recruiting Kelly. It would give us the picks and the salary cap to secure Kelly. The two top 10 picks we receive for Hogan can be used to get Kelly.

So I say roll the dice. Dont trade him this season. More upside to wait.

 

 

All well & good that we keep him... 

Any news on how we will fill 9 list positions with only 4 current picks (5 once Kent goes) with pick 33 our earliest...?

I would imagine we wouldn't want to be taking pick 87 to the draft. 

 

[Pennant St Dee 13,412]

50 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

The club has to be tight lipped at this time. There is so much garbage being put out there by 'journos' that have to fill column inches. If they responded to every wacky rumour they would need more staff.

I love your optimism Jnr Mac take it from me he's gone. 

Just about the club sorting out the best deal now.

 

[SFebes 4,884]

1 minute ago, Moonshadow said:

FWIW, Karl Langdon just mentioned on SEN that he bumped into Jesse's mum outside Optus Stadium last week and "bombarded her with questions". She said Jesse loves living in Melbourne, he was homesick initially, but given his dad's death, does not have that drawcard anymore. He said she told him she loves coming to Melbourne city about 6 times per year to visit Jesse (I thought she lived in Melbourne???). Langdon flippantly added Hogan would be more likely to go to another Melbourne based club than to WA.

This is Karl Langdon, though, so grain of salt.

Doesnt Jesse's mum already live in Melbourne though......?

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

7 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

IF -  Jesse says " I no longer want to be an MFC player and I want to go home to play on slippery surfaces and get heaps of free kicks" - THEN so be it BUT until he SAY's it I am not Listening..............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jeezus... relax. No-one cares whether you're listening or not. You said you wanted the club "not to let him" go... sign him to 2-5 years. If he wants to stay, then they don't need to convince him. If he chooses to go, then there's nothing we can do to stop him. It's that simple. We can't force him to stay at the club, and it's not up to us to "not let him" leave. We live in a free country.

Take it easy.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,457]

6 minutes ago, SFebes said:

But we won't get 2 x top 10 picks next year for Hogan, that's the point and has been all along.

Freo will likely have a top 5 pick next year. Take that and their future 1st rounder would be much the same as what we will get this year.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,457]

3 minutes ago, layzie said:

Once and for all. Is Hogan a RFA next year or not?

No not next year. It is either 2020 or 2021 depending on whether my memory is correct or not. He was drafted in 2012 and was first on our senior list in 2014.

[Ted Lasso 19,564]

8 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

Of course we will. We could even do better if Hogan has a massive year and/or WC enter.  He may be out of contract in 2019 but he is not a RFA until 2021. There is little to no downside currency risk.

I don’t agree I suspect the pre season draft card will become a huge factor in 2019, if freo have another rubbish year as expected