Match Preview and Team Selection - Elimination Final

[bandicoot 1,395]

13 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Pure Stats Form Guide & Predictor

Team Form Comparison (team score last round adjusted for Ins/)

Demons:  76.7   Cats:  78.1

Team Differential:   Cats +1.4

                                                     Pure Stats Predictor:

                                   Pure Stats (no umpire Bias) - The Cats by 3 points

The above includes the Ins of Viney & Hannan for the Outs of Tyson & Kent (injured).  The Cats will no doubt make a few changes also but i don't have the time to adjust by Friday night so this could tip the results a little also.

Predictor also unlikely to be as accurate given the 2 week break effect on form.   However, it is a little hard to ignore  having so far predicted 10 of the 12 W/L results with an accuracy factor of 83%

Last Round Statistical Comparison

*Does NOT Include this weeks Ins & Outs.  Cats obviously have a major top end experience advantage.  Our 10 players in the 50 to 99 range will have to perform at their best to offset this.  We did of course play 2 teams at opposite ends of the ladder also which is likely to have skewed both results statistically.

Top 10 Players Comparison (Last Round)#

# Scores do not account for ruckmen's 'Hit Outs to Advantage'

Where are these stats from? What is this predictor? 

[The Chazz 4,077]

8 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I can recall that being mentioned on one of the Fox Footy programs last night Chazz.

They have altered their schedule in an attempt to avoid the post-bye slump record they have which is 2W / 9L or something like that.

Long may their post-bye slump continue (well, at least for another week!).

[binman 43,813]

4 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I can recall that being mentioned on one of the Fox Footy programs last night Chazz.

They have altered their schedule in an attempt to avoid the post-bye slump record they have which is 2W / 9L or something like that.

Their post bye record is a funny one. Surely it is an anomaly but at the same time maybe it is in the back of the Cat's player's minds. Certainly pundits have mentioned it as a factor and if they have moved training sessions the club must think it is.

The other interesting thing from a psychological perspective is i reckon they are under more pressure than us. Sure we are inexperienced in terms of finals but they have a lot of eggs in the holy trinity basket. Their premiership window is closing and they may feel they need to win it this year before it shuts. If we get a few goals up they might start stressing about that window sliding down (that is a a lot of metaphors in one paragraph).

They don't have the same elite fugazi skills as us so maybe the white noise will mess with their minds.  

[Brownie 5,988]

Tough calls to be made at selection which is a nice problem to have.

I think a big question over who comes in and goes out is "who performs best under intense pressure"?

Can't wait for the bounce tomorrow to see how we roll.

 

[In Harmes Way 7,823]

This is what I'm hoping to see from Jack Viney tomorrow night. All night long.

[McQueen 17,867]

15 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

Long may their post-bye slump continue (well, at least for another week!).

I remember now - it was Mooney saying that the group had made a habit of switching off for the bye and not being able to switch back on. I sort of zoned out a bit because it was just turning into a soul circle jerk between Mooney and himself reliving his supposed footballing brilliance.

[Mondê 525]

I'm starting to feel nervy...hope we rock up mentally

[binman 43,813]

11 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

This is what I'm hoping to see from Jack Viney tomorrow night. All night long.

And after we have smashed them the time will have come to raise the roof and have some fun, throw away the work to be done and let the music play on (Its a grand old flag!)

Then after the leaving the G, dees fan will sing and dance into the night:

Everybody sing, everybody dance
Lose yourself in wild romance, we going to
Parti', karamu', fiesta, forever
Come on and sing along
We're going to parti', karamu', fiesta, forever
Come on and sing along
All night long (all night), all night (all night)
All night long (all night), all night (all night)
All night long (all night), all night (all night)
All night long (all night), ooh yeah (all night)

People dancing all in the street
See the rhythm all in their feet
Life is good, wild and sweet
Let the music play on
Feel it in your heart and feel it in your soul
Let the music take control, we going to
Parti', liming, fiesta, forever
Come on…

Edited September 6, 2018 by binman

[PaulRB 6,411]

This... is my feel. 

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/09/06/murphy-my-gut-feeling-melbourne-will-absolutely-smash-geelong/

[Demon Jack 6,930]

Just my luck that the night of our first final in 12 years is the same one I where I'm seeing Queens of the Stone Age across the train tracks at Margaret Court Arena. I remember booking the tickets months ago and looking at the date thinking...'surely not.'...

I have a feeling score checks will be very, very frequent. Hopefully the frontman doesn't shame me for not paying attention.

[ManDee 7,222]

1 hour ago, RedButMostlyBlue said:

Same, and I totally agree!

The team has been building to this moment, and I think the message will be sent from the very first second. The cats won't know what hit them, but they'll have plenty of time to think about it on the plane home!

Plane home to Geelong? mmmm

[Demonland 73,161]

9 minutes ago, Demon Jack said:

Just my luck that the night of our first final in 12 years is the same one I where I'm seeing Queens of the Stone Age across the train tracks at Margaret Court Arena. I remember booking the tickets months ago and looking at the date thinking...'surely not.'...

I have a feeling score checks will be very, very frequent. Hopefully the frontman doesn't shame me for not paying attention.

I don't think there is a band/act past or present that could keep me away from the G on Friday night.

[Demonland 73,161]

7 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Plane home to Geelong? mmmm

It's the only way the Trinity will travel. Probably first class too.

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

14 minutes ago, Demonland said:

It's the only way the Trinity will travel. Probably first class too.

[In Harmes Way 7,823]

1 hour ago, ManDee said:

Plane home to Geelong? mmmm

Bronwyn Bishop is the number 1 ticket holder at Geelong?

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

5 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

Bronwyn Bishop is the number 1 ticket holder at Geelong?

[Jaded No More 68,974]

I've had such an insane work week I haven't stopped to really think about the game... until the last few hours. And now it's hitting me and I'm nervous as hell! 

I agree with Murphy, I think this game will be a smashing one way or another. I hope it is us smashing them! 

[Clintosaurus 7,867]

Cats into $2.05

[chook fowler 19,551]

Love to wipe the smirk of that [censored] Chris Scott’s face.

[Jones 62]

Where is a good pub to meet up prior to the game for a bite & drinks?

Somewhere that is within walking distance to the G

 

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

What I'm looking forward to is ... who is our new finals hero? Or heroes. Who will rise to the occasion? Who will make a name for themselves as a "finals performer"? Tracc? J Smith? Nev? Jones? Hoping for a bit of a smokey.

[binman 43,813]

35 minutes ago, Jones said:

Where is a good pub to meet up prior to the game for a bite & drinks?

Somewhere that is within walking distance to the G

 

If you are on the north side of the g rhe grace darling on smith street Collingwood is a good option. Not least because ill be there.

Half price pints of cider and coopers 5-7. Pretty good food and a 20 min walk to the g.

South side the corner a good option. 

[kev martin 10,416]

51 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

What I'm looking forward to is ... who is our new finals hero? Or heroes. Who will rise to the occasion? Who will make a name for themselves as a "finals performer"? Tracc? J Smith? Nev? Jones? Hoping for a bit of a smokey.

Tom Mcdonald (goals), Bailey Fritsch (contested marks and ball efficiency) and Alex Neal-Bullen (1%, pressure turnovers and assists). As well as our guns, Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, Max Gawn and James Harmes 

Edited September 6, 2018 by 000

[Jibroni 5,013]

Just realized Razor Ray is umpiring, hope the boys keep their discipline with this clown umpiring.

 

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,246]

7 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

Just realized Razor Ray is umpiring, hope the boys keep their discipline with this clown umpiring.

 

He actually looked after us against the Dogs so I'm happy with him umpiring.

Just put the whistles away and let the boys play!