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Match Preview and Team Selection - Elimination Final

Demonland
Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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13 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Pure Stats Form Guide & Predictor

Team Form Comparison (team score last round adjusted for Ins/)

Demons:  76.7   Cats:  78.1

Team Differential:   Cats +1.4

                                                     Pure Stats Predictor:

                                   Pure Stats (no umpire Bias) - The Cats by 3 points

The above includes the Ins of Viney & Hannan for the Outs of Tyson & Kent (injured).  The Cats will no doubt make a few changes also but i don't have the time to adjust by Friday night so this could tip the results a little also.

Predictor also unlikely to be as accurate given the 2 week break effect on form.   However, it is a little hard to ignore  having so far predicted 10 of the 12 W/L results with an accuracy factor of 83%

Last Round Statistical Comparison

image.png.52f5e7d6e57502e10e5654491a142ccb.png

image.png.b26ad20a4c26b07f5d8f716320b1b9f3.png

*Does NOT Include this weeks Ins & Outs.  Cats obviously have a major top end experience advantage.  Our 10 players in the 50 to 99 range will have to perform at their best to offset this.  We did of course play 2 teams at opposite ends of the ladder also which is likely to have skewed both results statistically.

Top 10 Players Comparison (Last Round)#

image.png.e52b88e33211d2bfcc2ec18281d4bb49.png

# Scores do not account for ruckmen's 'Hit Outs to Advantage'

Where are these stats from? What is this predictor? 

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    8 minutes ago, McQueen said:

    I can recall that being mentioned on one of the Fox Footy programs last night Chazz.

    They have altered their schedule in an attempt to avoid the post-bye slump record they have which is 2W / 9L or something like that.

    Long may their post-bye slump continue (well, at least for another week!).

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    4 minutes ago, McQueen said:

    I can recall that being mentioned on one of the Fox Footy programs last night Chazz.

    They have altered their schedule in an attempt to avoid the post-bye slump record they have which is 2W / 9L or something like that.

    Their post bye record is a funny one. Surely it is an anomaly but at the same time maybe it is in the back of the Cat's player's minds. Certainly pundits have mentioned it as a factor and if they have moved training sessions the club must think it is.

    The other interesting thing from a psychological perspective is i reckon they are under more pressure than us. Sure we are inexperienced in terms of finals but they have a lot of eggs in the holy trinity basket. Their premiership window is closing and they may feel they need to win it this year before it shuts. If we get a few goals up they might start stressing about that window sliding down (that is a a lot of metaphors in one paragraph).

    They don't have the same elite fugazi skills as us so maybe the white noise will mess with their minds.  

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    Tough calls to be made at selection which is a nice problem to have.

    I think a big question over who comes in and goes out is "who performs best under intense pressure"?

    Can't wait for the bounce tomorrow to see how we roll.

     

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    Image result for jack viney mav weller tackle gif

    This is what I'm hoping to see from Jack Viney tomorrow night. All night long.

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    15 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

    Long may their post-bye slump continue (well, at least for another week!).

    I remember now - it was Mooney saying that the group had made a habit of switching off for the bye and not being able to switch back on. I sort of zoned out a bit because it was just turning into a soul circle jerk between Mooney and himself reliving his supposed footballing brilliance.

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    I'm starting to feel nervy...hope we rock up mentally

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    11 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

    Image result for jack viney mav weller tackle gif

    This is what I'm hoping to see from Jack Viney tomorrow night. All night long.

    And after we have smashed them the time will have come to raise the roof and have some fun, throw away the work to be done and let the music play on (Its a grand old flag!)

    Then after the leaving the G, dees fan will sing and dance into the night:

    Everybody sing, everybody dance
    Lose yourself in wild romance, we going to
    Parti', karamu', fiesta, forever
    Come on and sing along
    We're going to parti', karamu', fiesta, forever
    Come on and sing along
    All night long (all night), all night (all night)
    All night long (all night), all night (all night)
    All night long (all night), all night (all night)
    All night long (all night), ooh yeah (all night)

    People dancing all in the street
    See the rhythm all in their feet
    Life is good, wild and sweet
    Let the music play on
    Feel it in your heart and feel it in your soul
    Let the music take control, we going to
    Parti', liming, fiesta, forever
    Come on…

    Edited by binman

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    Just my luck that the night of our first final in 12 years is the same one I where I'm seeing Queens of the Stone Age across the train tracks at Margaret Court Arena. I remember booking the tickets months ago and looking at the date thinking...'surely not.'...

    I have a feeling score checks will be very, very frequent. Hopefully the frontman doesn't shame me for not paying attention.

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    1 hour ago, RedButMostlyBlue said:

    Same, and I totally agree!

    The team has been building to this moment, and I think the message will be sent from the very first second. The cats won't know what hit them, but they'll have plenty of time to think about it on the plane home!

    Plane home to Geelong? mmmm

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    9 minutes ago, Demon Jack said:

    Just my luck that the night of our first final in 12 years is the same one I where I'm seeing Queens of the Stone Age across the train tracks at Margaret Court Arena. I remember booking the tickets months ago and looking at the date thinking...'surely not.'...

    I have a feeling score checks will be very, very frequent. Hopefully the frontman doesn't shame me for not paying attention.

    I don't think there is a band/act past or present that could keep me away from the G on Friday night.

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    1 hour ago, ManDee said:

    Plane home to Geelong? mmmm

    Bronwyn Bishop is the number 1 ticket holder at Geelong?

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    I've had such an insane work week I haven't stopped to really think about the game... until the last few hours. And now it's hitting me and I'm nervous as hell! 

    I agree with Murphy, I think this game will be a smashing one way or another. I hope it is us smashing them! 

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    Cats into $2.05

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    Where is a good pub to meet up prior to the game for a bite & drinks?

    Somewhere that is within walking distance to the G

     

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    What I'm looking forward to is ... who is our new finals hero? Or heroes. Who will rise to the occasion? Who will make a name for themselves as a "finals performer"? Tracc? J Smith? Nev? Jones? Hoping for a bit of a smokey.

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    35 minutes ago, Jones said:

    Where is a good pub to meet up prior to the game for a bite & drinks?

    Somewhere that is within walking distance to the G

     

    If you are on the north side of the g rhe grace darling on smith street Collingwood is a good option. Not least because ill be there.

    Half price pints of cider and coopers 5-7. Pretty good food and a 20 min walk to the g.

    South side the corner a good option. 

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    51 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

    What I'm looking forward to is ... who is our new finals hero? Or heroes. Who will rise to the occasion? Who will make a name for themselves as a "finals performer"? Tracc? J Smith? Nev? Jones? Hoping for a bit of a smokey.

    Tom Mcdonald (goals), Bailey Fritsch (contested marks and ball efficiency) and Alex Neal-Bullen (1%, pressure turnovers and assists). As well as our guns, Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, Max Gawn and James Harmes 

    Edited by 000

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    Just realized Razor Ray is umpiring, hope the boys keep their discipline with this clown umpiring.

     

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    7 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

    Just realized Razor Ray is umpiring, hope the boys keep their discipline with this clown umpiring.

     

    He actually looked after us against the Dogs so I'm happy with him umpiring.

    Just put the whistles away and let the boys play!

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