12 is not enough 

A team with 13 will miss out

9 minutes ago, america de cali said:

So we have a tough road home. I say bring it on. Last season we had a so called easy run, especially the last three rounds and blew it. We will see what kind of fight and character this lot will provide. 

Very much so.

There's two things as outcomes ( for mine )

1) how savvy the team is if coached well. Do they play with verve and gusto ( or .... )

2) simply wins/ losses

The second decides fate for 2018

The prior decides fate of those carrying out the club's efforts .

8 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Very much so.

There's two things as outcomes ( for mine )

1) how savvy the team is if coached well. Do they play with verve and gusto ( or .... )

2) simply wins/ losses

The second decides fate for 2018

The prior decides fate of those carrying out the club's efforts .

Yes, and we had our hiccups throughout the season but every other side has them too. The next month and a bit will show if the promises of “never again” made by the players after R23 are sincere. There  are no more rocks left to hide under.

Edited July 19, 20186 yr by america de cali

GWS are beatable at the G but hope that we are not relying on it.

Nope 14 will do it

Many of the teams we play against are also fighting for a spot so 12 with strong % will get it done imo. We hear a lot of our "tough" draw because we haven't played finals in a decade, and so a lot of eyes are on us. reality is no one team fighting for top 8 has an easy draw.

Edited July 19, 20186 yr by praha

That loss to the Saints really hurt us - geez I hope Goodwin roasted the players.

That loss to Port also really hurt us - I hope Goodwin roasted himself for not selecting any crumbing forwards.

Need 13 wins.

 

><)))^> Booked to go fishing. Returning Second Week of the Finals (and expect us to be there)! <^)))><

5 hours ago, davejemmolly said:

Was just listening to Duck and Campbell Brown on AFL.com

The afl  pays these stains on humanity .

What a disgrace.

We'll need 13. Hopefully the St Kilda game doesn't cost us finals. I'll be fuming if we fail again. 

5 hours ago, Demonland said:

We'd need quite a few things going our way for 12 to be enough even with our healthy percentage. Don't forget that a few medium sized or god forbid large losses could see that percentage advantage evaporate.

We will have to make it the old fashioned way by actually winning games. Considering that most of our games are against Top 8 teams if we don't beat those teams then we do not deserve a spot. Being the best of the worst shouldn't give you a wildcard. Simple.

Yep, if we only win 2 more, our percentage will no longer be healthy. Even if we have close games. That's not how percentage works.

I’m staggered that most of you blokes are writing off 12 wins as not enough.

Refer to post 5 of this thread and you’ll see how highly possible it is with 12.

As long as Hawks and North go 3-3 at the most while Adelaide and Essendon don’t exceed 4-2, then we’re playing finals footy with 12 wins.

Heck even if Collingwood go 1-5, we’ll go ahead of them with 12 wins.

I think some need a dose of clarity come understanding September.

The goal of any club is to win the premiership. To do so you must be in the finals , but that alone means nothing. It just gets you a seat on the bus. If your form going in is so-so it's rare that it improves. Invariably those who make up the numbers are the first victims of the September cull.

Other than getting to play another game there's not much to shout about. 

You need to be going into finals with form, with as full a list as possible....and with fanatical endeavour.

Finals isn't a goal...it's a path. A slippery path.

If you're not in the business end of September then you've no real business being there.

 

4 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Depends how many games Brisbane win. They can still cause a few upsets. 

I hope we get in with 14 wins, start owning games...

Not this year.

23 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I’m staggered that most of you blokes are writing off 12 wins as not enough.

Refer to post 5 of this thread and you’ll see how highly possible it is with 12.

As long as Hawks and North go 3-3 at the most while Adelaide and Essendon don’t exceed 4-2, then we’re playing finals footy with 12 wins.

Heck even if Collingwood go 1-5, we’ll go ahead of them with 12 wins.

It's possible, but it would take a tremendous amount of luck for us to get in with 12 wins.  So much would have to go right in our favour for it to happen, and I'm just not convinced that it can.

13 wins will be the magic number.

To answer the OP, I think 12 wins, even with a solid percentage, is unlikely to be enough. However, after the results of last weekend, I think it's a bit more likely than it was.

If North and Hawthorn only win 3 games each (which @Bring-Back-Powell has shown isn't exactly impossible), then 12 will be enough for us (unless the even less likely situation occurs in which Adelaide or Essendon win 5 of their last 6 and get to 13).

5 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Lol...so you want to fall back into the 8...then get your botty summarily spanked on the way out again ?

If you've only won 12...well you haven't beaten any other contender most likely.

If we haven't won 14...we haven't really done squat.

If we finish in the top 8, we deserve to play finals.

If we manage to do it with only 12 wins, that will mean clubs like GWS, Hawthorn, North and/or Geelong have all been as bad, or worse, than us over the final 6 rounds.

It's unlikely, but if it happens then we deserve to play finals.

25 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

I think some need a dose of clarity come understanding September.

The goal of any club is to win the premiership. To do so you must be in the finals , but that alone means nothing. It just gets you a seat on the bus. If your form going in is so-so it's rare that it improves. Invariably those who make up the numbers are the first victims of the September cull.

Other than getting to play another game there's not much to shout about. 

You need to be going into finals with form, with as full a list as possible....and with fanatical endeavour.

Finals isn't a goal...it's a path. A slippery path.

If you're not in the business end of September then you've no real business being there.

Couldn't agree less.

The top 8 qualify for finals. Ergo, the clubs who finish the home and away season in the top 8 spots on the ladder deserve to play finals.

Finishing 8th doesn't make you any more or less deserving than finishing 1st. It obviously means you weren't as good as the team in 1st, but that doesn't mean you don't deserve to play finals. You finished higher than the other 10.

For a club that hasn't played finals for an embarrassing 12 years, making them, and getting that monkey off the back, is unquestionably something we should be aiming for, even if we also should be aiming to win the flag. 

10 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

It's possible, but it would take a tremendous amount of luck for us to get in with 12 wins.  So much would have to go right in our favour for it to happen, and I'm just not convinced that it can.

13 wins will be the magic number.

Look you’re probably right in that 13 wins is required, but it’s going to require one of Hawthorn or North to win 4/6 games for us to need 13 wins.

I’d like to think neither side has the consistency to do it and they both have some tough fixtures.

Adelaide pose as a serious threat from here, particularly if we lose to them next week.

Could feasibly win 13, but are near certainties to lose to GWS in Canberra who are unbeatable at Manuka.

 

5 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Look you’re probably right in that 13 wins is required, but it’s going to require one of Hawthorn or North to win 4/6 games for us to need 13 wins.

I’d like to think neither side has the consistency to do it and they both have some tough fixtures.

If you assume Hawthorn beats Carlton, Fremantle and St Kilda (a dangerous assumption given they've lost to Brisbane twice, and the Fremantle game is in Perth), they then only have to win one of Essendon, Geelong and Sydney to get to 13. 

Right now, I think Hawthorn is likely to get to 13. 

Geelong is in the same boat, mind you. Say our 12th win is against Geelong (the 11th being against GC). Geelong would then need to win 4 of the last 5. That will require it to win all three GMHBA games (likely) but then win at least one of their two MCG games (Richmond, Hawthorn). Questionable. 

I suppose what that says is that 12 might be slightly more likely to do it if the 12th win is against Geelong.

Just now, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Adelaide pose as a serious threat from here, particularly if we lose to them next week.

Could feasibly win 13, but are near certainties to lose to GWS in Canberra who are unbeatable at Manuka.

A Brisbane win this weekend would be enormous for us. The likelihood of Adelaide then beating all of us, Port, GWS (away) and North is surely low.

5 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Adelaide pose as a serious threat from here, particularly if we lose to them next week.

Could feasibly win 13, but are near certainties to lose to GWS in Canberra who are unbeatable at Manuka.

 

We are not playing GWS in Canberra, the game is at the MCG

 

7 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

To answer the OP, I think 12 wins, even with a solid percentage, is unlikely to be enough. However, after the results of last weekend, I think it's a bit more likely than it was.

If North and Hawthorn only win 3 games each (which @Bring-Back-Powell has shown isn't exactly impossible), then 12 will be enough for us (unless the even less likely situation occurs in which Adelaide or Essendon win 5 of their last 6 and get to 13).

If we finish in the top 8, we deserve to play finals.

If we manage to do it with only 12 wins, that will mean clubs like GWS, Hawthorn, North and/or Geelong have all been as bad, or worse, than us over the final 6 rounds.

It's unlikely, but if it happens then we deserve to play finals.

Couldn't agree less.

The top 8 qualify for finals. Ergo, the clubs who finish the home and away season in the top 8 spots on the ladder deserve to play finals.

Finishing 8th doesn't make you any more or less deserving than finishing 1st. It obviously means you weren't as good as the team in 1st, but that doesn't mean you don't deserve to play finals. You finished higher than the other 10.

For a club that hasn't played finals for an embarrassing 12 years, making them, and getting that monkey off the back, is unquestionably something we should be aiming for, even if we also should be aiming to win the flag. 

You and those with similar view to finals seem to be fixated with this notion it's about DESERVING to play finals. Fine ...enjoy basking in the limelight. 

It's not about DESERVING. Anyone who makes it there has done just that.....but ONLY that. Made it into the finals.

It's totally irrelevant if you're incapable of actually competing in them meaningfully.

Finals is NOTHING. 

PREMIERSHIPs are everything.

Be satisfied with 'deserving'

We have a very different metric of success.

53 minutes ago, Big Carl said:

Not this year.

We have the Best Ruckman in the game. If Max stays fit we can do some damage. 

Get on a roll...

24 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

You and those with similar view to finals seem to be fixated with this notion it's about DESERVING to play finals. Fine ...enjoy basking in the limelight. 

It's not about DESERVING. Anyone who makes it there has done just that.....but ONLY that. Made it into the finals.

It's totally irrelevant if you're incapable of actually competing in them meaningfully.

Finals is NOTHING. 

PREMIERSHIPs are everything.

Be satisfied with 'deserving'

We have a very different metric of success.

No, it's just that one of us is capable of nuanced thought whilst the other one appears to only see things in BLACK and WHITE.

We will win the next 3. And at least one of the final 3. I have every confidence our inside 50 dominance and scoring power will be too much for some of these sides 

6 hours ago, hells bells said:

I had teams on 13 wins missing out.  12 wins definitely not. 

You definitely picked Brisbane and Freo last week too?