Jump to content

Featured Replies

Posted

Looking at some stats on the AFL website, and noticed something positive about Melbourne. In recent years one of the criticisms labelled at Melbourne is fade-outs across a game. A strong first half followed by a poor second, or a strong first quarter followed by a shocking second, and so on. Well this year we seem to have improved markedly in this respect. 

So far this season we have been consistent across all four quarters, winning 9, 9, 11, 11 across the four. This places us equal 3rd for total quarters won, tied on 40 with Richmond and West Coast. We're equal 4th with Geelong for first half performance, but the second half as you can see is where we really shine. We've won 22 second half quarters, to be ranked 1 in the competition! 

Just something little that's positive we can take away from the year so far. 

Full rankings:

First quarter wins

1st - Richmond & West Coast 11

2nd - Melbourne, Geelong, Swans 9

3rd - Filth* 8

4th - Port & Hawks 7

Second Quarter wins

1st - Richmond 11

2nd - Swans & West Coast 10

3rd - Melbourne, Geelong, Filth* 9

4th - Port & Hawks 8

3rd Quarter Wins

1st - Melbourne and Filth* 11

2nd - Port, Swans, Hawks 10

3rd - Geelong 9

4th - West Coast 8

5th - Richmond 6

4th Quarter Wins

1st - Richmond 12

2nd - Melbourne & West Coast 11

3rd - Port & Geelong 9

4th - Filth* 8

5th - Swans & Hawks 7

Edited by Brisbanedemonfan

 
 

how are we equal 6th-9th on the ladder and 3rd in quarters won!?!   suggests we still need to find the will to win and just get over the line. Wins against Cats and Saints would have us where the stats say we should be (actually 2nd), but we choked twice

good news none the less.  plenty of positives mixed in with the frustration!


21 minutes ago, DubDee said:

how are we equal 6th-9th on the ladder and 3rd in quarters won!?!   suggests we still need to find the will to win and just get over the line. Wins against Cats and Saints would have us where the stats say we should be (actually 2nd), but we choked twice

good news none the less.  plenty of positives mixed in with the frustration!

can add port to that list too

1 minute ago, daisycutter said:

can add port to that list too

Evidence of 3 games where the end result win/loss determined by umpiring.

26 minutes ago, DubDee said:

how are we equal 6th-9th on the ladder and 3rd in quarters won!?!   

Well we have lost two games (Geelong, St Kilda) by a combined 5 points.  

 

Another fun fact:

Do supporters remember Glenn Luff's (from Champion Data) hot plot in 2015 and 2016 ?

It was a graph that showed a team was in the premiership window if their average scoring was 100 points > and their defence averaged 86 points <.

There is only one team to round 16, 2018 who is in the hot plot sweet spot.  Any guesses ?

The Dees are the only team in the premiership window based on this once used metric.

Btw, I know it's no longer relevant.  Footy changes quickly and scoring has dried up over the last couple of years.  Nonetheless, i thought it interesting when I checked lat night.

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

Another fun fact:

Do supporters remember Glenn Luff's (from Champion Data) hot plot in 2015 and 2016 ?

It was a graph that showed a team was in the premiership window if their average scoring was 100 points > and their defence averaged 86 points <.

There is only one team to round 16, 2018 who is in the hot plot sweet spot.  Any guesses ?

The Dees are the only team in the premiership window based on this once used metric.

Btw, I know it's no longer relevant.  Footy changes quickly and scoring has dried up over the last couple of years.  Nonetheless, i thought it interesting when I checked lat night.

Here's a better version IMO:

https://squiggle.com.au/

Live Squiggle

Edited by Fifty-5


7 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I often go on to squiggle.

Not sure how it correlates with what I posted.

The Luff hot plot is a simplified version of the Live Squiggle which rates Defence and Attack.

3 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

The Luff hot plot is a simplified version of the Live Squiggle which rates Defence and Attack.

OK.

I didn't have time to read.  Will look later.

3 hours ago, ProDee said:

Another fun fact:

Do supporters remember Glenn Luff's (from Champion Data) hot plot in 2015 and 2016 ?

It was a graph that showed a team was in the premiership window if their average scoring was 100 points > and their defence averaged 86 points <.

There is only one team to round 16, 2018 who is in the hot plot sweet spot.  Any guesses ?

The Dees are the only team in the premiership window based on this once used metric.

Btw, I know it's no longer relevant.  Footy changes quickly and scoring has dried up over the last couple of years.  Nonetheless, i thought it interesting when I checked lat night.

Trouble is the team that won it in 2016 didn't feature in Luff's premiership window...

28 minutes ago, rjay said:

Trouble is the team that won it in 2016 didn't feature in Luff's premiership window...

It hasn't really been the focus of much attention but the big change was the weeks rest before the finals. Now any team in the 8 can get a rest and put together a good September to win the flag. This is a major game changer altho the data sample is pretty small.

I suspect this fact has made much of the previous finals analysis redundant.


1 hour ago, rjay said:

Trouble is the team that won it in 2016 didn't feature in Luff's premiership window...

Yes, I know.

Maybe I should have left it alone.  

For anyone pulling out their hair over being higher ranked in quarters won than in ladder position, just remember that we won every quarter for almost four games in a row without a blemish. On the ladder you still only get one win for that, same as any team that won three quarters or even just won two but by a little more than their opponents won their two.

It's a bit like in elections where the overall vote balance doesn't match the seat balance and final winner - three wins at 51% is better than two at 80% and one loss at 49%!

 

We're also starting to get more players past the 50 game mark which should equal greater consistency across the 4 quarters. Brayshaw and ANB will soon join Petracca, Oliver, Salem, Harmes and Hogan as fairly recent 50+ gamers. No longer a really young side anymore.

We've got a lot of numbers that are positive for us, I think that's why it's a massive frustration to fans that we aren't higher. The good side to the positive numbers is that the pieces of the puzzle appear to be there, they just need assembling. The question is will it happen in time?


1 hour ago, Pates said:

We've got a lot of numbers that are positive for us, I think that's why it's a massive frustration to fans that we aren't higher. The good side to the positive numbers is that the pieces of the puzzle appear to be there, they just need assembling. The question is will it happen in time?

I’m stil pi55ed at the umpire crucifixation against Port. We win that game and would have beaten Saints the following week and would be second. Even dropping Saints game would have been 4th.

Just now, D4Life said:

I’m stil pi55ed at the umpire crucifixation against Port. We win that game and would have beaten Saints the following week and would be second. Even dropping Saints game would have been 4th.

Umpires interstate are always biased, it's a fact of life that sucks. We dominated them for the first half and were only in front by a nose, that was on us not being able to make the most of our opportunities going inside 50. So many stupid long bombs to outnumbered forwards. We had almost double their inside 50s, no team should lose with that kind of stat.

I agree that had we beaten Port we probably would've had the confidence the following week to beat the Saints.

1 minute ago, Pates said:

Umpires interstate are always biased, it's a fact of life that sucks. We dominated them for the first half and were only in front by a nose, that was on us not being able to make the most of our opportunities going inside 50. So many stupid long bombs to outnumbered forwards. We had almost double their inside 50s, no team should lose with that kind of stat.

I agree that had we beaten Port we probably would've had the confidence the following week to beat the Saints.

Agree with your 2nd point. Don’t like the first even if it’s true, rather blame the umps!

 
2 hours ago, bingers said:

I hate the filth ... so much.

34 to go but they might beat you yet!


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • CASEY: Collingwood

    It was freezing cold at Mission Whitten Stadium where only the brave came out in the rain to watch a game that turned out to be as miserable as the weather.
    The Casey Demons secured their third consecutive victory, earning the four premiership points and credit for defeating a highly regarded Collingwood side, but achieved little else. Apart perhaps from setting the scene for Monday’s big game at the MCG and the Ice Challenge that precedes it.
    Neither team showcased significant skill in the bleak and greasy conditions, at a location that was far from either’s home territory. Even the field umpires forgot where they were and experienced a challenging evening, but no further comment is necessary.

      • Like
    • 4 replies
  • NON-MFC: Round 13

    Follow all the action from every Round 13 clash excluding the Dees as the 2025 AFL Premiership Season rolls on. With Melbourne playing in the final match of the round on King's Birthday, all eyes turn to the rest of the competition. Who are you tipping to win? And more importantly, which results best serve the Demons’ finals aspirations? Join the discussion and keep track of the matches that could shape the ladder and impact our run to September.

      • Vomit
      • Like
    • 216 replies
  • PREVIEW: Collingwood

    Having convincingly defeated last year’s premier and decisively outplayed the runner-up with 8.2 in the final quarter, nothing epitomized the Melbourne Football Club’s performance more than its 1.12 final half, particularly the eight consecutive behinds in the last term, against a struggling St Kilda team in the midst of a dismal losing streak. Just when stability and consistency were anticipated within the Demon ranks, they delivered a quintessential performance marked by instability and ill-conceived decisions, with the most striking aspect being their inaccuracy in kicking for goal, which suggested a lack of preparation (instead of sleeping in their hotel in Alice, were they having a night on the turps) rather than a well-rested team. Let’s face it - this kicking disease that makes them look like raw amateurs is becoming a millstone around the team’s neck.

    • 1 reply
  • CASEY: Sydney

    The Casey Demons were always expected to emerge victorious in their matchup against the lowly-ranked Sydney Swans at picturesque Tramway Oval, situated in the shadows of the SCG in Moore Park. They dominated the proceedings in the opening two and a half quarters of the game but had little to show for it. This was primarily due to their own sloppy errors in a low-standard game that produced a number of crowded mauls reminiscent of the rugby game popular in old Sydney Town. However, when the Swans tired, as teams often do when they turn games into ugly defensive contests, Casey lifted the standard of its own play and … it was off to the races. Not to nearby Randwick but to a different race with an objective of piling on goal after goal on the way to a mammoth victory. At the 25-minute mark of the third quarter, the Demons held a slender 14-point lead over the Swans, who are ahead on the ladder of only the previous week's opposition, the ailing Bullants. Forty minutes later, they had more than fully compensated for the sloppiness of their earlier play with a decisive 94-point victory, that culminated in a rousing finish which yielded thirteen unanswered goals. Kicks hit their targets, the ball found itself going through the middle and every player made a contribution.

    • 1 reply
  • REPORT: St. Kilda

    Hands up if you thought, like me, at half-time in yesterday’s game at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs that Melbourne’s disposal around the ground and, in particular, its kicking inaccuracy in front of the goals couldn’t get any worse. Well, it did. And what’s even more damning for the Melbourne Football Club is that the game against St Kilda and its resurgence from the bottomless pit of its miserable start to the season wasn’t just lost through poor conversion for goal but rather in the 15 minutes when the entire team went into a slumber and was mugged by the out-of-form Saints. Their six goals two behinds (one goal less than the Demons managed for the whole game) weaved a path of destruction from which they were unable to recover. Ross Lyon’s astute use of pressure to contain the situation once they had asserted their grip on the game, and Melbourne’s self-destructive wastefulness, assured that outcome. The old adage about the insanity of repeatedly doing something and expecting a different result, was out there. Two years ago, the score line in Melbourne’s loss to the Giants at this same ground was 5 goals 15 behinds - a ratio of one goal per four scoring shots - was perfectly replicated with yesterday’s 7 goals 21 behinds. 
    This has been going on for a while and opens up a number of questions. I’ll put forward a few that come to mind from this performance. The obvious first question is whether the club can find a suitable coach to instruct players on proper kicking techniques or is this a skill that can no longer be developed at this stage of the development of our playing group? Another concern is the team's ability to counter an opponent's dominance during a run on as exemplified by the Saints in the first quarter. Did the Demons underestimate their opponents, considering St Kilda's goals during this period were scored by relatively unknown forwards? Furthermore, given the modest attendance of 6,721 at TIO Traeger Park and the team's poor past performances at this venue, is it prudent to prioritize financial gain over potentially sacrificing valuable premiership points by relinquishing home ground advantage, notwithstanding the cultural significance of the team's connection to the Red Centre? 

      • Haha
    • 4 replies
  • PREGAME: Collingwood

    After a disappointing loss in Alice Springs the Demons return to the MCG to take on the Magpies in the annual King's Birthday Big Freeze for MND game. Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Clap
      • Like
    • 528 replies