Jump to content

Run home to Finals - 2018

What
What
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Why are we $1.55 favorites to beat the hottest team in the league in GWS? 

they are ravaged by injury and may have 3rd spot stitched up by then.

  • Quote
    •  

    There are four possibilities: W-W, W-L, L-W and L-L.

    I can see an argument for all four:

    1. Backs to the wall, pressure on us all week, we galvanise in a road trip (we've been doing that all year) and beat a WC side that actually isn't in great form. With finals locked in, the mental pressure is released and the shackles fall off, seeing us romp home against GWS
    2. See above re: West Coast, but we get ahead of ourselves knowing we've made finals and flop
    3. We get done by West Coast this week. However, by the time we get to our Round 23 game Port has lost to Collingwood and Essendon and North lost to Adelaide, which means we're locked in to the top 8 whether or not we beat GWS. The pressure therefore falls away and we romp home against GWS.
    4. We get done by West Coast, Port wins a game and/or North beats Adelaide, meaning we know that we have to beat GWS to qualify. We lose, obviously.
    6 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Assuming we have a close loss and a close win, Geelong would need to win both of their games by a combined 200 points to catch us on percentage.

    Given they play Freo who have half of their side including Fyfe and Gold Coast, it's quite achievable.

    The probability of Geelong winning consecutive games by 100 points, us not gaining percentage despite a win (we don't win close games, we lose closes games or we win by a bunch), and Port beating Collingwood and Essendon is very low, IMO. I don't see that scenario occurring.

    I think the scenario of us making it on 12 wins is more likely than the scenario of us missing on 13 wins.

    2 hours ago, praha said:

    they are ravaged by injury and may have 3rd spot stitched up by then.

    I reckon they'll be itching to test themselves on the MCG, where they haven't played since Round 2, before the finals start.

  • Quote
    15 hours ago, praha said:

    they are ravaged by injury and may have 3rd spot stitched up by then.

    There could be a scenario in play whereby if Hawthorn lose to Sydney in round 23, the top 4 of the ladder could look like this just prior to the Melb V GWS game.

    Richmond    18-4

    WCE             16-6

    Collingwood  15-7

    GWS               14-6-1 

    Seeing that GWS would already have top 4 stitched up and can't get into top 2, that might take a bit of fizz off their desire to win the game. They may even prefer to come down to Melbourne in week 1 of finals than travel all the way to WA?? They may even rest a couple of players or not rush back Toby Greene??

    Clutching at straws I know, but every 1 per center helps.

     

        

  • Quote
    • Like 1
     

    Richmond have now lost Lambert. I dont think it's long term though but he's an important player.

    Everyone is dropping like flies around us, we wont get a greater opportunity than now. Time to stand up and stop the spin.

  • Quote
    42 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

    Richmond have now lost Lambert. I dont think it's long term though but he's an important player.

    Everyone is dropping like flies around us, we wont get a greater opportunity than now. Time to stand up and stop the spin.

    Richmond are so lucky they even time their key injuries to perfection.

    They finally get an injury one of their stars, but it turns out he'll only miss a couple of dead rubbers and the bye week.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    21 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

    that's paying $22 at Sportsbet (including the MFC losses)

    $5.63 without the MFC games

    Im on!!!

  • Quote
    •  
    48 minutes ago, worldwideweb_demon said:

    Since finals are out of the question, I say we just try to tank and get draft picks.

    they go to Adelaide for lever anyway...

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    • Author
    1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

    If we lose next 2 and favourites win:

    image.png.1cb2f947afa56d1291d4f121097117b4.png

    Win one of them and get a home final in week 1 and we can dare to dream.

    If we lose both....            I don't even want to think about that.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    1 minute ago, Petraccattack said:

    Win one of them and get a home final in week 1 and we can dare to dream.

    If we lose both....            I don't even want to think about that.

    Agree trac, unfortunately we've put ourselves in this situation again, you can just feel it'll come down to R23 again and we'll be a laughing stock again. However, I reckon we'll knock off the Eagles.

  • Quote

    We've definitely improved on last year even if/when we miss finals because this year we have 3 games to fail in wheras last year it was only the last game against Collingwood.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    • Haha 2
    31 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

    Win one of them and get a home final in week 1 and we can dare to dream.

    If we lose both....            I don't even want to think about that.

    What? At the MCG? No thanks..

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    • Haha 1
    • Author
    Just now, jnrmac said:

    What? At the MCG? No thanks..

     

    LOL good point.

    We would be a better chance in an away final.

  • Quote
    1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

    Just go with T-Mac and a medium/small forward line.

    As unfortunate as Hulk's injury is, sometimes things happen for a reason.

    The impending return of Melksham and and an available Kent kicking a few goals on the weekend might be just the tonic we need to get over the Eagles & the Greater Western Circus and secure a finals berth.

    CONS

  • Quote

    9 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    There could be a scenario in play whereby if Hawthorn lose to Sydney in round 23, the top 4 of the ladder could look like this just prior to the Melb V GWS game.

    Richmond    18-4

    WCE             16-6

    Collingwood  15-7

    GWS               14-6-1 

    Seeing that GWS would already have top 4 stitched up and can't get into top 2, that might take a bit of fizz off their desire to win the game. They may even prefer to come down to Melbourne in week 1 of finals than travel all the way to WA?? They may even rest a couple of players or not rush back Toby Greene??

    Clutching at straws I know, but every 1 per center helps.

      

    It's a fascinating conundrum for them. If we beat WCE, then a win over GWS would put us in 5th. 4th if Collingwood and Hawthorn lose 1 of their matches. Port or Freo, Stk or Sydney. If super lucky, then GWS may even be locked in 3rd pre-game.

     

    There is hope afterall. This week is a massive game and it's quite funny now that we're away from the G, that there is a faint hope. I feel like a junkie wanting one more hit..

    4si4bt.jpg

     

     

    Edited by johndemonic

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    • Haha 2
    On 8/13/2018 at 7:28 AM, beelzebub said:

    We haven't beaten anyone of significance really all season.

    Might I ask then why do some now suppose we'll beat either or both teams currently 2nd and 3rd ? 

    I'm not being defeatist to simply abide by realistic appraisal. 

    Finals now looming as a bridge too far. I saw very little from my seat yesterday to counter this view.

    Dream on

    I hear you B.B. and totally agree, but the wheel has to turn in our favour at some point. I’m not confident but hopefull, so until it’s confirmed, for me we’re still alive.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    F%#k it... All those crying poor us with the Hogan news on top of Lever & Viney well Collingwood & GWS have managed a top 4 spot with a worse injury list then us. Port lost Dixon for the season on the weekend... Lets just get on with it, I'm pretty confident we can knock off west coast this week regardless, we get Hibberd & Melksham back. 

    Everyone's expecting us to fall in a hole these next 2 weeks so what have we got to lose, everyones going here Melbourne goes again.... We'll either prove them wrong or right, we either make finals or we don't. One things for certain we'll all be back again next year regardless so let's just bring on the next 2 weeks, enjoy it. What will be will be.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    2 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

    I hear you B.B. and totally agree, but the wheel has to turn in our favour at some point. I’m not confident but hopefull, so until it’s confirmed, for me we’re still alive.

    Does it... wheel have to turn ? 

    No rule says it has to :(

  • Quote
    3 hours ago, MSFebey said:

    If we lose next 2 and favourites win:

    image.png.1cb2f947afa56d1291d4f121097117b4.png

    No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

    Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

    And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

  • Quote

    19 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

    No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

    Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

    And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

    There's a part of me that would prefer it be down to us having to win one of these two games. As much as I want us to play finals I'm not sure I want us in there limping in with no wins against anyone of note.

    That said I really desperately want us in the finals.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    21 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

    No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

    Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

    And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

    Desperate or not, there is no way in hell I'm cheering for the Pies. We either beat Eagles or I rather not make up the 8.

    If Melbourne can't win, the only small satisfaction is seeing Collingwood lose.

  • Quote
    31 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

    No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

    Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

    And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

    If North (vs Adel/StK), Geel (vs Feo/GCS) or Ess (vs Rich/PA) win both games they will have 13 wins.  If we lose both we drop out of the 8 and stranded on 12 wins.  Same for Port.  In fact both Demons and Port could drop out of the 8 and replaced (most likely) by the Scott bros.  If Port win one and Geel/North win two we are out.

    So, on my reckoning we must win a game to ensure we make it.  Hopefully, this week otherwise it will be a truly nail biting rnd 23, again.

    It would cut me to the core to drop out of the 8 to make way for a sooky Scott coached team (or heaven forbid TWSNBN). 

    Edited by Lucifer's Hero

  • Quote
    • Like 1
     

    I have us losing next two and scraping in as long as Adelaide beat North, Bombers beat Port, and rest of results go as I (?) would expect.

     

    Screenshot_20180814-210134_Chrome.jpg

  • Quote

    • Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • NON-MFC: Round 09

      Round 9 kicks off out west with the Dockers hosting a Collingwood side resting several stars. Fremantle need to make a statement on their home deck after some disappointing form on the road, while the Magpies will be keen to maintain their Top 2 position. Friday night sees a must-win clash between two sides desperate to stay in touch with the eight. St Kilda have shown glimpses while Carlton are clinging to relevance after a flat start to the season. Saturday’s twilight game at Marvel pits the Bombers against a struggling Sydney outfit. Essendon can’t afford another close match against a lower-ranked side, while the Swans risk sliding down the ladder even further. Up in Darwin, the fourth-placed Suns will look to extend their stay in the top four. The Bulldogs have hit their stride with three big wins on the trot and will be very keen to consolidate on their momentum. The always fiery Showdown looms as pivotal for both clubs. Adelaide are eyeing a spot in the Top 4 with a win, while Port Adelaide’s season could slip away if they drop another game and fall further behind the pack. Sunday begins with a yawn fest between Richmond and West Coast. The Tigers need to bank the points to stay clear of the bottom two, while the Eagles are still chasing their first win of the year. The Giants face one of the league’s toughest road trips as they travel to GMHBA Stadium to face the Cats. With GWS at risk of a third straight loss, Geelong will be eager to consolidate their position inside the eight and start their climb up the ladder. The round wraps up with the top-of-the-table Lions heading to Ninja Stadium to take on the second-last Roos. The Lions should easily take care of the struggling Roos who might be powerless against the best in the comp. Who are you tipping and what are the best results for the Demons?

        • Thanks
      • 128 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREVIEW: Hawthorn

      Melbourne and Hawthorn who face off against each other this week have more in common than having once almost merged and about to wear a blue jumper with a red v triangle and an embroidered picture of a bird on the front. They also share the MCG as their main home ground, their supporters are associated with the leafy suburbs of Melbourne and in recent times, James Frawley graced the colours of both teams. Even more recently, both have bounced back from disastrous five game losing streaks to start off a season. Of course, the Hawks turned their bounce into a successful leap from the bottom of the ladder into a finals appearance, making it to the semifinals in 2024 and this year, they’re riding high in third place on the AFL table. The Demons are just three games into their 2025 bounce back, and are yet to climb their way out of the bottom four although they are sitting a game and percentage out of the top eight. However, with the current sportsbet odds of $3.90 to win this week’s encounter, it seems a forlorn hope that their upward progression will continue much longer.

        • Thumb Down
        • Clap
        • Thanks
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: Harvey Langford Interview

      On Wednesday I'll be interviewing the Melbourne Football Club's first pick in the 2024 National Draft and pick number 6 overall Harvey Langford. If you have any questions you want asked let me know. I will release the interview on Wednesday afternoon.

        • Clap
        • Love
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 32 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • REPORT: West Coast

      On a night of counting, Melbourne captain Max Gawn made sure that his contribution counted. He was at his best and superb in the the ruck from the very start of the election night game against the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, but after watching his dominance of the first quarter and a half of the clash evaporate into nothing as the Eagles booted four goals in the last ten minutes of the opening half, he turned the game on its head, with a ruckman’s masterclass in the second half.  No superlatives would be sufficient to describe the enormity of the skipper’s performance starting with his 47 hit outs, a career-high 35 possessions (22 of them contested), nine clearances, 12 score involvements and, after messing up an attempt or two, finally capping off one of the greatest rucking performances of all time, with a goal of own in the final quarter not long after he delivered a right angled pass into the arms of Daniel Turner who also goaled from a pocket (will we ever know if the pass is what was intended). That was enough to overturn a 12 point deficit after the Eagles scored the first goal of the second half into a 29 point lead at the last break and a winning final quarter (at last) for the Demons who decided not to rest their champion ruckman at the end this time around. 

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Hawthorn

      The Demons return to the MCG to take on the High Flying Hawks on Saturday Afternoon. Hawthorn will be aiming to consolidate a position in the Top 4 whilst the Dees will be looking to take a scalp and make it four wins in a row. Who comes in and who goes out?

        • Thanks
      • 324 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: West Coast

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 5th May @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we analyse the Demons 3rd win row for the season against the Eagles.
      Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
      If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 25 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland
    View All