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The Ox says the Dees in danger ....

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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I think where players line up and play will be one of the big indicators this year.

Hogan, Weideman, Gawn and maybe even Lever will tell us what the style will be, in the need for speed.

And don't forget everyone, we love the Umpires. Wear Tiger and Cat jumpers underneath ours in the practice games.....

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    7 hours ago, Goffer said:

    Weidemann? I think Ox got it wrong, Viney is our most important player, he's a born leader and pulled us across the line against the Eagles. If we lose him for an extended stretch of time we're rooted. 

    Interesting - not sure the stats back up your theory, if losing a single player out of you teams means you are "rooted" then that points to a much greater problem that needs fixed. Think Crows losing Dangerfield no great problem, think Geelong losing Ablett, Tigers losing Deledio, Hawks losing Buddy the list could go on and on. 

    Its a myth - but a myth you can make a fair amount of money from if you exploit it. 

    I dont think we have to worry about losing a single player we have done an excellent job fixing our depth issues. 

    Just for the record IMHO far more important factors are 

    - Game plan ie how you play each individual ground

    - team match ups - you need depth, plus how you match up against the opposition team

    - days break between games - better known as recovery time

    - confidence - attitude, belief in what you are doing is right, positive mental attitude

    - team balance - players ability to play their role in the team game plan.

    - team experience levels - combination of age & total number of games played

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    8 hours ago, praha said:

    I don't think what he says is wrong.

    Neither team is at a point yet where if a KPP goes down, we can successfully cover them unequivocally without ruining structure. We're continuing to develop our ruck division, Omac is clearly being developed as a reliable depth player, and Weeds needs to be our Roughead equivalent. But we're not at a point yet where losing a Lever or Hogan allows us to bring someone straight into the role with similar efficiency. We got lucky with Hogan and Gawn this year but we were arguably a 4-5 win better side with them playing every game.

    We need to be in a position where losing Gawn doesn't force us to go small, or losing Hogan forces a complete restructure of the line and structure of the team. We're too vulnerable. 

    Make no mistake that if lever, gawn and hogan stay healthy this year, so long as we aren't decimated in the middle like we were for a patch this year, we'll be top 4.

    ???  Please explain ???   If we were lucky with these two, how could be be unlucky?

    7 hours ago, Deeprived Childhood said:

    If the Dogs can finish 11th after finishing 1st, then any team is in danger of slipping down the ladder, even without injuries.

    Sorry, but to be pedantic, 18th can’t slip down, and as many will rise as fall.  ?

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    7 hours ago, Goffer said:

    Weidemann? I think Ox got it wrong, Viney is our most important player, he's a born leader and pulled us across the line against the Eagles. If we lose him for an extended stretch of time we're rooted. 

    Personally I think Oliver is our most important player and have thought so since his first game.

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    10 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

    Gawn is important but we can restructure with the Tommy Mc/Pedersen ruck combination.

    Hogan is important but we've won games without him and again Pedersen/Tommy Mc isn't a bad key forward pairing and if not those 2 Weeds is hopefully available.

    Lever might prove vital, the Crows sure were a better team with him playing well (bit of chicken and egg there), but Frost and Oscar can at least do a job some weeks and Hunt and Hibberd can intercept and drive from half back.

    Viney might be our most important player but then again his absence might see more midfield time for Jones and Petracca and then it comes down to finding guys to play wing and half forward.

    The biggest factors with injuries are:
    - In game injuries that leave you down 2 players early
    - Injuries to multiple players from the same position group
    - injuries to groups of players at the same time that leave you short handed and also struggling to get recovered players back in to the team at the same time.

    So basically what happened to us this year.

    The biggest factors with injuries are:
    - In game injuries that leave you down 2 players early:     Against Richmond in Round 5. Lost Gawn early in Rd 3 against Geelong.
    - Injuries to multiple players from the same position group: Jones, Viney, Tyson, Salem. Bugg suspended.
    - injuries to groups of players at the same time that leave you short handed and also struggling to get recovered players back in to the team at the same time. Round 14 onwards, with the above group. Watts, Jones and Gawn were all short of a gallop when they returned.

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    2 hours ago, rjay said:

    Personally I think Oliver is our most important player and have thought so since his first game.

    First game?

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    15 hours ago, Emerald said:

    Everybody in the football media think that they are Nostradamus.

    ...and behave, at our (the MFC) expense, accordingly ... it has always annoyed me. Remember when Tilbrook was recruited? Remember when this skiny kid, a weed in the tall grass started playing and advanced to Jumper #2? 

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    14 hours ago, Copuchas said:

    The subtext in Ox's obvious observation is all about avoiding complacency ie improvement is not a given and will need to be fought hard for, more so if there's any adversity on the injury front.   Just messaging for the young bucks in the playing group....from that wise old owl the Ox!

    Probably agree with you, here. He does know his stuff. I'd reckon that he'd be a very good coach - and if I was a young bloke in the team, I'd be a little intimidated with circumstances with the Ox if I did not 'put in, at the max...'

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    Our most important players are those who can deny possession by the opposition, win the ball and dispose of the ball to advantage. Hence our most valuable players are Oliver, Petracca, Neal-Bullen and Jetta who consistently beat their opponents one-on-one, win the ball and deliver to advantage. Depending on the day, Jones and Viney as grunts and Harmes and Dunn as line busting dashers are valuable but not as consistent.

    Maxie gives us a huge advantage but the combination of Pedersen and TMac provide cover and leave us no worse of than many other teams. Hogan also gives us a huge advantage but a combination of Pedersen,  TMaca and Petracca provide some cover.

    The real risk is if we were to lose more than, say 2 of this list, so that our ability to provide cover is stretched. On the other hand, we now have a wider group of play makers and contributors who, if they all stepped up, would lessen the loss.

    As always, injuries and the ability to cover count more than is appreciated. Richmond in 2017 had next to no injuries, Footscray in 2016 had plenty but had a coach who was shrewd enough and sharp enough to develop and use a wide spread of talent to cover the injuries.

    I believe that we are building a Footscray model but hoping for Richmond season.

     

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    5 hours ago, Thrice said:

    So basically what happened to us this year.

    The biggest factors with injuries are:
    - In game injuries that leave you down 2 players early:     Against Richmond in Round 5. Lost Gawn early in Rd 3 against Geelong.
    - Injuries to multiple players from the same position group: Jones, Viney, Tyson, Salem. Bugg suspended.
    - injuries to groups of players at the same time that leave you short handed and also struggling to get recovered players back in to the team at the same time. Round 14 onwards, with the above group. Watts, Jones and Gawn were all short of a gallop when they returned.

    Yep the Richmond game was a case of going 2 down. Geelong we kicked too many points and wasted too much energy for 3/4's.

    The midfield losses set us back for the Adelaide, North and GWS games and meant we weren't at our best against St Kilda and Brisbane. Unfortunately I don't really think they were an excuse for the Collingwood game.

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    10 hours ago, rjay said:

    Personally I think Oliver is our most important player and have thought so since his first game.

    Oliver is on a trajectory to be our next Barassi.

    He just needs Hogan, Petracca, Hunt, Viney and Lever to come with him so he can be a legend of this club.

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    8 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

    Probably agree with you, here. He does know his stuff. I'd reckon that he'd be a very good coach - and if I was a young bloke in the team, I'd be a little intimidated with circumstances with the Ox if I did not 'put in, at the max...'

    Sounds like Rocket Eade style coaching. I dont think Ox has the temperament or tactical nous to sit in a coaching box. No thanks!

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    Fairy Nuff, DP.  Glad you can judge.

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    On Thursday, November 30, 2017 at 10:24 PM, Goffer said:

    Weidemann? I think Ox got it wrong, Viney is our most important player, he's a born leader and pulled us across the line against the Eagles. If we lose him for an extended stretch of time we're rooted. 

    Agree regards Weidemann.  The guy actually has to have an impact before it hurts us to loose him to injury.  I actually think players like Pedersen and T Mac are far more important to us than the Weid right now.  I think there is more risk if Pedo or T Mac get injured or drop away and Weid doesn't step up and deliver on his potential.

    The other risk that concerns me with Weid is that he comes good and takes flight for more opportunity, better coin etc after everything we have put into him.  Don't particularly know why I think this way, it's just a hunch, maybe the family ties to Collingwood.  Hope I'm proven wrong.

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    On 12/1/2017 at 9:30 AM, Thrice said:

    So basically what happened to us this year.

    The biggest factors with injuries are:
    - In game injuries that leave you down 2 players early:     Against Richmond in Round 5. Lost Gawn early in Rd 3 against Geelong.
    - Injuries to multiple players from the same position group: Jones, Viney, Tyson, Salem. Bugg suspended.
    - injuries to groups of players at the same time that leave you short handed and also struggling to get recovered players back in to the team at the same time. Round 14 onwards, with the above group. Watts, Jones and Gawn were all short of a gallop when they returned.

    Interesting you talk about injuries being a factor - there is a very, very strong theory that many injuries can be avoided if you are investing large amounts of money into your football department in the area of Sports Science - you concentrate your funds in the following areas 

    - Strength and conditioning, individualising  each players programme with constant weekly reviews and tests

    - Injury prevention, related to above but you also deals with player education and facilities 

    - Injury recovery and management - few players play injury free, its critical understand how to deal with "minor" injuries often they lead to "major" injuries. Alternatively, a player coming back from injury needs special treatment. 

    - Elite performance - How to acheive more out your body yet still avoid injury

    BUT - this all costs huge money - your can never have too much money in the area of Sports Science its a bottomless pit.

    The more you spend the closer to a flag you are. The big spenders in this area are Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide, West Coast, Colingwood, Essendon & in recent years Richmond - do you recognise a pattern there? 

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    OX knows there are a lot of other deficiencies that may trip us up. He is just being face saving for us in case we do fall over. Like fake news there are also fake football clubs and if we can’t use the humiliation piled on at the end of last season as a spur to finally make a genuine move for success I might be fully convinced we are not the real deal and never will be. The bath water addiction of the players is more of a worry than injuries at this stage.

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    2 hours ago, america de cali said:

    OX knows there are a lot of other deficiencies that may trip us up. He is just being face saving for us in case we do fall over. Like fake news there are also fake football clubs and if we can’t use the humiliation piled on at the end of last season as a spur to finally make a genuine move for success I might be fully convinced we are not the real deal and never will be. The bath water addiction of the players is more of a worry than injuries at this stage.

    Which is where astute leadership, both on field and in the box, is essential.

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    We had a heap of injuries this season and just missed the finals.

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    There is becoming a very fine line between Sports Science and cheating, and there comrades, is another reason why those names would jump out at you. The "good thing" is, it's occurring in every sport.

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    On 02/12/2017 at 10:28 AM, DaveyDee said:

    Interesting you talk about injuries being a factor - there is a very, very strong theory that many injuries can be avoided if you are investing large amounts of money into your football department in the area of Sports Science - you concentrate your funds in the following areas 

    - Strength and conditioning, individualising  each players programme with constant weekly reviews and tests

    - Injury prevention, related to above but you also deals with player education and facilities 

    - Injury recovery and management - few players play injury free, its critical understand how to deal with "minor" injuries often they lead to "major" injuries. Alternatively, a player coming back from injury needs special treatment. 

    - Elite performance - How to acheive more out your body yet still avoid injury

    BUT - this all costs huge money - your can never have too much money in the area of Sports Science its a bottomless pit.

    The more you spend the closer to a flag you are. The big spenders in this area are Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide, West Coast, Colingwood, Essendon & in recent years Richmond - do you recognise a pattern there? 

    Interesting, would love to read the paper on this "very, very strong theory".

    I'm sure there would be a connection to sport science and a pattern of soft tissue injuries.  However, if you have a look at a lot of our injuries in 2017, I can't really see any pattern in terms of a flood of hamstrings, or calves, etc.  Jones had his quad, Watts his hammy, Viney's plantar, Jesse's testicular cancer, Gawn's hammy, Gus' concussions, Salem's thyroid, Kent's shoulder, etc etc (Vanders, Spencer, Smith x 2).

    I think 2017 was just one of those crap years for us on the injury front.  How this could be put down to sport science is baffling.  But, given you have a clear issue with the amount we are spending in the football department, I expect you will have a different argument.

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    15 hours ago, willmoy said:

    There is becoming a very fine line between Sports Science and cheating, and there comrades, is another reason why those names would jump out at you. The "good thing" is, it's occurring in every sport.

    Yeah, its a tough one think the AFL work hard to put checks and balances into place - but if clubs want to push the boundaries let it be on their own heads if the line is crossed into "cheating."

    Ironically, and I know this may sound like bizarre. Cheats normally seek to get some sort of financial gain & if they do - this is normally how you catch them. But Im going to leave that there.    

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    Wasted his own career and blew his coin more concerned with getting on the punt.
    Now just babbling BS to earn a crust.

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