Good enough?

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Does Melbourne have the key ingredients for Premiership success in 2007?

[occo 2]

Does Melbourne have the key ingredients for Premiership success in 2007?

No

No and

No

[Damo 3,374]

Yes

Yes

No...

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

no, no and no.

But this is only a guess. I reckon about 6 or 7 sides are thereabouts, with some having more cause for optimism than others. WC and Syndey have all the ingredients they need. The Saints are in need of some luck, but are as close as you'd hope. Adelaide are struggling for talls, but have enough class to just about make it. Freo are in the box seat. The doggies have a number of strengths that make them a dangerous foe on many grounds. And lastly we have a good mix at the moment, courtesy of some wily recruiting and hard work. I'd certainly put us towards the bottom end of that list, but still there. We could make top 4, and from there Sydney proved that you can make a GF from there, and come within a point of winning it.

As for the other question, are MFC's football and coaching department strong enough? They've proven nothing yet, but they won't until they win one. More importantly, they're certainly improving. Williams could possibly prove to be a great acquisition, and our slightly stronger financial position as well as some reshuffling of trainers as well as the acquisition of BB could give us the edge to make top 4.

Will we win it this year? Who bloody-well knows? All I know is I feel there's less cause for optimism this coming season than there was for last season. At the beginning of last year, and at various times during the year (QB vs Pies, Rounds 7, 8 and 20, week 1 of finals) I was very optimistic about our chances in the future, and for that season. I'm still looking forward to 2007, but not with nearly as much excitement.

In short, it's 3 no's, but we're not Carlton or Brisbane.

[Guest red and blue 2]

no

yes

no

When finals came around this year the real quality of our list showed. Not enough pace and just not quite good enough around the packs still desptite huge improvement from previous year. too many big name players go missing when the heat is on; Bruce, Yze, Green etc and White despite adapting better to the new ruck rule hasnt dominated hitouts like he used to... Having said that Im a pessimist by nature

[snarler 0]

Yes

Yes

Yes

definitely, i say it every year and ill say it again and again until we win the bloody thing!

i think we play heaps better when daniher yells at the players. if he really cranks it up every quarter we might just have a chance.....

[Jaded No More 68,973]

no, no and no.

But this is only a guess. I reckon about 6 or 7 sides are thereabouts, with some having more cause for optimism than others. WC and Syndey have all the ingredients they need. The Saints are in need of some luck, but are as close as you'd hope. Adelaide are struggling for talls, but have enough class to just about make it. Freo are in the box seat. The doggies have a number of strengths that make them a dangerous foe on many grounds. And lastly we have a good mix at the moment, courtesy of some wily recruiting and hard work. I'd certainly put us towards the bottom end of that list, but still there.

That is an extremely negative point of view.

Of the clubs you listed as 'thereabouts':

- Sydney's backline is suspect, and some of their best players aren't getting any younger. They'll also need Spider to return to his best, because Jolly as a #1 ruckman is not the way to go

- Adelaide have been very disappointing come finals in the past two years. They rely on some old bodies, and their forward line is a joke. They also have no ruck division in 2007 with Clarke gone and Biglands injured.

- The Dogs are great to watch, but pace does not win you finals. They need to find another tall forward, perhaps Darcy but who knows what he'd be like after 2 years out injured. Their backline is very suspect.

- The Saints IMHO are overrated. Their backline is a huge problem, as is their ruck division. They recruited Gardiner FFS, he isn't exactly the reliable type. They have some very classy onballers and a good forward line (light on crumbers, unless you're a Milne fan ). Their biggest problem though, is their loser mentality. They've been losers for so long, it'll take something pretty big to change that.

- Freo are similar to us, they have problems with high expectations. They are mentally suspect, but they do have a very very good group of young players, headed by one of the best in Pavlich. They're a chance, but their coach is an idiot.

- And finally, WC. They will be flag favourites in April, no doubt about it. They have the best midfield by a country mile, and their backline is ok. I'm still not convinced their forwards are much good, but then again they managed to outplay Sydney's backline (see first point regarding Sydney).

See how easy it is to find faults?

When it's your own club, it's the easiest because you're so close to the action and you know the list well. But no club is perfect, and apart from WC who have a powerhouse midfield, every list has their strengths.

Having said all that, I still voted 'no' on the last question

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Some good points there, but I stand by what I said. Just for rebuttal's sake...

- Sydney. Yes, I too am not a huge fan of their backline, but they made 2 GFs with it. Perhaps it's Roos's skill and smarts that make their defence play above themselves? Who knows. In any case, they've been there and done that, and I'm certain their old players are still a ways off declining just yet. Importantly their stars are in peak age. Think Goodes, O'Keefe, Hall... Where many have made Jolly the scapegoat for a failed GF (and I'm one of them) I'm certain he'll bring about change to his game even if only gradual, and Everitt will come through as the missing ingredient.

- Adelaide. Yep, I tend to agree with you here, they're on the skids with some of their stars getting REALLY old, some of their talls succumbing already to some fairly nasty injuries, and a limited ruck division, but I'm very loathe to write them off. They weren't supposed to be any good in the last couple of years, but Craig David keeps surprising me. They certainly have the funds to do it all over again. Also, remember mid-year for about 10 rounds there EVERYONE thought they were in their own class in the AFL. They were wrong of course, but I'm mindful of that kind of form. They're not quite gone yet, keep your eyes on them.

- Dogs. I dunno, J. They had a number of big injuries, and when they're back along with some tall timber, we could see a HEEEUGE improvement once again. In all of the last 3 teams, in each case it seems the coach bears much of the credit for their recent successes, and rightly so. Coaches don't get worse with age either, and Eade is a sensational match-day coach. And what's so wrong with their defence? Maybe it's not Fletcher and Michael back there, but they go alright. When they score that heavily on the rebound, who cares if they're not a top-four defensive side.

- Saints. Once again, they've been there and done it (prelims) with the same problems you describe. ie average backline and no classy rucks. One thing that was amazingly helpful when ND took over was the complete absence of expectations, and we ended up top four that year, and in a GF two years later. Add to this the fact that they should have all their talls fit for once (Gehrig, Reiwoldt and Kosi) and Hayes back and they'll be better than they were last year, certainly. Had Gehrig not gotten hurt, or had Hayes been around, we would have been hard pressed to win that final, glorious as it was. That said, I do agree with your point about the loser mentality. If there's a way to stuff it up, the Saints will find it.

- Freo. Interesting that you should say we compare to them. I think you may have stumbled onto something here. In the last 10 rounds of the year, they had no weaknesses. Every area of the ground was overwhelmingly outclassing their opponents. So what went wrong? Mental toughness? I prefer to think it was lack of finals experience. Something they remedied in 2006 by playing 3. Freo are enormously dangerous this coming year. The best I feel I can hope for is that they let themselves down, in much the same way we always have.

- WC. Yep, we are all on the same page with them. Their midfield is so ridiculously good that, injuries aside, no-one could be expected to knock them off over the length of a season. Who cares how crap your forwards are when you're getting delivery like that?

Your point is well made, and I'm certainly firmer and colder when it comes to singing the praises of MFC, as I don't want to fall into the trap of becoming a one-eyed supporter. If I say MFC is the best team in the league, I want it to be because they are, not simply because I love them so much.

I think my main assertion with us, and I'll make some enemies here, is that in many, if not all, of the important areas of our list and FD we have weaknesses. WC has its midfield, the Saints have their tall forwards, the dogs have their pace, and Sydney has its coach, gameplan and stars. We have Neitz, Davey, Pickett, Robbo and others, but our attack can at times be suspect. We have a sensational group of kids in the midfield, but they're still very young. Our backline found a gun in Carroll, and has guns like Rivers and Whelan, but needs a lot more help. Our rucks are arguably our shakiest department with White no longer elite, and Jamar and PJ still suspect for different reasons. The only players I have supreme confidence in are McLean and maybe Trav and Neita, with Whelan up there somewhere. In all the above cases they have more than one star player who you can bank on being dangerous. Sydney - Hall, Goodes, Kirk. Adelaide - Burton, Edwards, Goodwin, Roo (to a degree). Dogs - West, Cross, Johnson. Saints - Dal Santo, Hayes, Reiwoldt. Freo - Pavlich, Bell, Sandilands (sort of). WC - Judd, Cousins, Kerr etc. etc.

Damn. Somehow this turned into another "MFC doesn't have stars" thread. But I'm sure you see where I'm coming from. On our day we can do it all, but where are the players who star even on the bad days? And there will be bad days in 2007. There always is. In the end, we're around the mark, but We're not WC yet.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

....

We get "War and Peace" to the author's three closed ended questions.

FWIW, my answers

Yes

Yes

Yes. If we have a good run with injuries (our key opponents dont), our established players contribute to their capabilities and our young brigade take the next step we are definitely in the mix.

Jaded - Agree with your sentiments.

[Jaded No More 68,973]

I think my main assertion with us, and I'll make some enemies here, is that in many, if not all, of the important areas of our list and FD we have weaknesses.

Man, you've really depressed me!

Think I can take a sick day from work, on grounds of such horrible depression?

As I said, everybody has strenghts and everybody has weaknesses.

We need absolutely everything to go right for us to win the damn thing, and just because we're never the lucky ones, doesn't mean things aren't about to change.... I have hope... but I vote 'no' because I refuse to be disappointed again

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

We get "War and Peace" to the author's three closed ended questions.

And this surprises you? You have read at least one of my posts before right? There's not a whole lot of footy where I'm living at the moment, so I think about it a lot. Probably too much really. Oh, and I'm doing this for a living now, so get used to seeing me around more. I may even try to give you a run for your money on that mighty post count of yours.

Man, you've really depressed me!

but I vote 'no' because I refuse to be disappointed again

Yeah sorry about that. If it makes you feel any better I've had a look at our draw and I reckon if we go like we did for the first half of last year, not counting rounds 1-3, we reallcould be 13-2. At the G we have no reason to fear anyone, and many of our games are played there. Even if we're 11-4 like this year, you'll see me jumping in the driver's seat of the bandwagon. But, like the second part of your quote, I'm acutely aware that even with that sort of start, we are still not guaranteed top 4.

One last thing, and you'll forgive me RR, is that I was pretty much bowled over by the sheer number of players that improved or held their form last year. We had 2 year's worth of draftees come out of nowhere are give us a lift. Bartram, Bate, Dunn, Jones, Warnock (?) were all yet to debut, and when they did, they sent shockwaves through this club's supporters. That's a lot of green players to come in and pretty much cement their place in the side (with the exception of Dunn and Warnock, who will soon enough), along with Pickett who was new to the club. After that we had young players like Bell (sort of), Davey, Jamar, Brock and Rivers improve on 2005, in some cases improve exponentially. Then some older established players improved slightly or held their good form. JMac, Neitz, Carroll, Holland, Ward and Whelan all had fantastic years, and many of our best guys held their own, like Trav, Green, Bruce and maybe White. In fact it would be simpler just to name the guys who DIDN'T improve, as it's to them that I look for that extra 4 or 8 premiership points that'll get us over the line. Brown, Ferg, Miller, Moloney, Robbo, Whetaley and Yze (sort of) are established players who could improve, and then there's the draftees who we've already been told aren't going to do heaps (with the exception of Petterd according to reports).

If we do a Sydney and use 24-26 players for the H&A season, then of course we'll be up there, maybe even favourites for the flag. I hope it makes you feel better that we're a long way from being out of the race. If the flag doesn't go to WC or Sydney again this year, then we may be next in line.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

but I vote 'no' because I refuse to be disappointed again

I warned you about being on the Adelaide bandwagon during last year.

And this surprises you? You have read at least one of my posts before right? There's not a whole lot of footy where I'm living at the moment, so I think about it a lot. Probably too much really. Oh, and I'm doing this for a living now, so get used to seeing me around more. I may even try to give you a run for your money on that mighty post count of yours.

Your word count is triple mine anyway!

Our opporunity is based on the achievable outcomes from our list and some faltering of those teams above us.

To win a flag is not easy (I know its 40+ years) and relies on a number of factors applying to your team and its opponents.

We are in the mix this year definitely and with the right confluence of events could seriously challenge for it.

IMO a Grand Final berth is not out of the question.

Its easy to be negative and apply the blow torch to your own team (more so than others).

I prefer to rationally assess and see the opportunity and I think it is closer than many give credit.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

There's a word count? I had no idea. How embarrassment.

Like you say, a GF is not out of the question. I think I answered the original question wrongly. If you ask "Can we" I'd say yes (just), but if you ask "will we" I'd say no. But predictions in footy are useless, particularly at this point in the year. Take my novella above with a grain of salt all ye who read this page.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

And this surprises you? You have read at least one of my posts before right? There's not a whole lot of footy where I'm living at the moment, so I think about it a lot. Probably too much really. Oh, and I'm doing this for a living now, so get used to seeing me around more. I may even try to give you a run for your money on that mighty post count of yours.

quote]

Your word count is triple mine anyway!

Our opporunity is based on the achievable outcomes from our list and some faltering of those teams above us.

To win a flag is not easy (I know its 40+ years) and relies on a number of factors applying to your team and its opponents.

We are in the mix this year definitely and with the right confluence of events could seriously challenge for it.

IMO a Grand Final berth is not out of the question.

Its easy to be negative and apply the blow torch to your own team (more so than others).

I prefer to rationally assess and see the opportunity and I think it is closer than many give credit.

[joeboy 3,166]

No class ruckman , no premiership

[beelzebub 23,383]

jb....you nailed it..

many wil still figure white to be in same league as others at the centre...and he's not...hasnt been for years...handy around ...but not at middle.....and we are stil unsure of a solution..

struggle in the middle and you lose.

back to heads in sand everyone

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

No class ruckman , no premiership

Like Essendon in 2000 with John Barnes and Sydney in 2005 with Ball/Jolly. Hell, Sydney were within a whisker of back to back with Jolly/Doyle last year with a combined 7 possessions.

jb....you nailed it..

many wil still figure white to be in same league as others at the centre...and he's not...hasnt been for years...handy around ...but not at middle.....and we are stil unsure of a solution..

struggle in the middle and you lose.

back to heads in sand everyone

White is still a capable ruckman at AFL level. He might not be in Dean Cox’s league (and then again who is!) but I would rank him in the top half of the ruckman going around.

Another poster listed the various big men out there for each Club and there would be only 4 I would rate highly and only 2 are class.

Rather than struggle in the middle and you lose, a more accurate description is be competitive in the middle and you win. Sydney in 2005 had the much underrated Jason Ball negate Cox for much of the GF and won. Ball was a solid capable ruckman but not class. Even last year, Sydney almost overran WCE with a dud ruck line up.

White may struggle at centre bounces under the existing rules but he remains an athletic follower who is mobile with good stamina and disposal skills. In order to succeed next year we need Jamar/PJ to step forward and step up a level. From within these three players we need a combination that will beat the crud and be competitive against the best in the middle. That’s one of the ifs to winning a flag this year.

Lat year’s grand final was an enthralling combat between two well matched skilled clubs. There were some brilliant passages of football. But there were sufficient evidence to show that both sides are very beatable by a capable competitive outfit.

MFC have the opportunity and capability to be that this year.

But there is nothing more head in the sand than supporting a clichéd generalisation that is not backed up by the facts.

[NO MERGER 20]

I think this could be our year. Our list has gotten stronger and stronger and if we won it this year, we'll win it next year too...

[beelzebub 23,383]

Rather than struggle in the middle and you lose, a more accurate description is be competitive in the middle and you win.

Isn't that saying exactly the same thing i.e if you're not competitive ... you are struggling?

Glad you agree.

[brey9186 102]

we need a good ruck TEAM, not just white and a back up, because we have seen thats not going to work!!

trying to go one on one with cox and sandilands for 4 quarters isnt going to work, but by working them over with 2 ruckman through out the game, we can get the advantage over them!!!

jamar and PJ, neaves even, need to prove that they are up to this, because if not, our premiership ideas are still a few years away whilst more ruckman are either developed and/or traded for

the question is, wouldv'e a clark keating or matthew clarke been a good option for a year, or do you think jamar/PJ are better options?

[Demondeb 8]

I voted

yes

Yes

No

No because I believe at this point we dont have that killer instinct and winners mentality.

Too many of our established players go missing too often when we need them the most and this has to be fixed for us to get top 4 and even better, Top 2. Yze, Bruce, Green and Neita to a degree just seem to go AWOL when the heat is on and if we could get them to contribute instead of relying on kids like McLean to win us a final then we could see that no become a yes.

Sure we have some areas that need to be improved but we have a fairly good mix of senior players and good young kids with some real potential in there. Each player needs to step up a notch or two from last year and alas, we are not the only team that will happen to. Shame about that, but thats life and footy!

Still I look forward to 2007 to see if any of my wishes from above get granted. Not expecting is the best way with our club, that way you can be pleasantly surprised and enjoy the ride!

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

we need a good ruck TEAM, not just white and a back up, because we have seen thats not going to work!!

trying to go one on one with cox and sandilands for 4 quarters isnt going to work, but by working them over with 2 ruckman through out the game, we can get the advantage over them!!!

jamar and PJ, neaves even, need to prove that they are up to this, because if not, our premiership ideas are still a few years away whilst more ruckman are either developed and/or traded for

the question is, wouldv'e a clark keating or matthew clarke been a good option for a year, or do you think jamar/PJ are better options?

In the case of Cox (and maybe Sandilands) I would be happy to nullify their impact. One is and the other potentially very damaging footballers. You are right though about a combination of MFC rucks. I hope at least two of the 3 lift their standard on 2006.

FWIW, I think Clarke/ Keating are past it. St Kilda's choice smacks of desparation given their poor rucks of past year.

Too many of our established players go missing too often when we need them the most and this has to be fixed for us to get top 4 and even better, Top 2. Yze, Bruce, Green and Neita to a degree just seem to go AWOL when the heat is on.....

I think your comment about Yze and Bruce is spot on. However, Neitz has not played finals football (injury) for the previous 2 years and was very good in the 2006 finals. And I thought Green gave his all in the past finals series and was not bad.

[H_T 3,049]

Wow. This one has been dug up. Interesting reading some views prior to Christmas 2006 on where they saw Melbourne's List for the 2007 season.

With over 70% thinking Melbourne's list was good enough challenge for the premiership in '07. The list was certainly viewed differently after the season commenced.

Even now.

[mo64 5,881]

Wow. This one has been dug up. Interesting reading some views prior to Christmas 2006 on where they saw Melbourne's List for the 2007 season.

With over 70% thinking Melbourne's list was good enough challenge for the premiership in '07. The list was certainly viewed differently after the season commenced.

Even now.

Well, well, well. Interesting to read Rhino's comments. I'd like to see how he gets out of this.

"We are in the mix this year definitely and with the right confluence of events could seriously challenge for it.

IMO a Grand Final berth is not out of the question.

Its easy to be negative and apply the blow torch to your own team (more so than others).

I prefer to rationally assess and see the opportunity and I think it is closer than many give credit."

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Well, well, well. Interesting to read Rhino's comments. I'd like to see how he gets out of this.

"We are in the mix this year definitely and with the right confluence of events could seriously challenge for it.

IMO a Grand Final berth is not out of the question.

Its easy to be negative and apply the blow torch to your own team (more so than others).

I prefer to rationally assess and see the opportunity and I think it is closer than many give credit."

You dont read pauper do you. If you read the thread you would get the picture rather than nitpicking to suit your crusade.

Here is what I said:

Our opporunity is based on the achievable outcomes from our list and some faltering of those teams above us.

To win a flag is not easy (I know its 40+ years) and relies on a number of factors applying to your team and its opponents.

Here are the factors.

If we have a good run with injuries (our key opponents dont), our established players contribute to their capabilities and our young brigade take the next step we are definitely in the mix.

Well Mo in 2007, we got slaughtered by injuries, our established players were either injured or performed worse than they did in 2006. Some significantly and our young brigade either stalled or went backwards.

But of course you saw us as "competitive" in 2007.

Nice try. But once a again you're the stooge!