Looking ahead ... the Path to September

[monoccular 16,562]

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If Port beat WB this week and IF (a big if) we win all our remaining games, I reckon we play Sydney (6th) in Sydney.

Port have the biggest percentage booster (GC at home) you could ever imagine in round 23 so should finish above Sydney who will host an honest Carlton to end the H&A.

I'm assuming Geelong and Richmond will stay top 4.

Honest Carlton!!  The Visy paper bag mob, the inventors of tanking whose recruit got another club investigated for their invention, the club with the doctors who repeatedly screw other teams' players at the MRP??  That honest Carlton??!!

[Copuchas 756]

5 hours ago, bandicoot said:

I think both port and Sydney will lose this week which means that whoever wins by more in the last round will finish 5th. Swans play Carlton and port play GC. Could both be 100 point wins. 

I'm not as confident that Port beat the Dogs in Ballarat in 9 degs.  Also, I don't think you can write off a Dean Solomon coached Suns quite so quickly for the week after, at least not in terms of the probability of a 100 point loss.  In fact, I'm not dismissive of them taking it up to a Hurley-less Essendon on Saturday.  

I concur with Clint's take on us not beating Sydney or GWS.....at least not up there!  But if we can avoid them until the last game of the year, we might be a chance on the G!   Two trips to Adelaide and a MCG Semi against the Tiges would be a heaven sent September program for the Dees!

[Lucifers Hero 37,505]

On 8/16/2017 at 4:06 PM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

So far the AFL have sort of indicated that a Thursday night final would be most likely played in Adelaide. There's a belief that Thu night footy is better suited to Adelaide or Perth.

So if we played Port, I'll take a punt and say we'd be playing them on the Thu night. I reckon they would put Adelaide v's Geelong or Richmond on the Friday night.

If we play Sydney, I have a gut feel it will be a Saturday arvo at the SCG or possibly night. They never have an elimination final on a Friday night.

**Knock on wood we make it** 

I like us playing the Elim final on the Thursday night (if we make finals).   It gives us a 12 day break from the round 23 Saturday game and it gives us at least 8/9 day break to the next final (if we win Elim). 

I think that is a major reasons the Bulldogs won last year: they had 8 - 9 day breaks between each final giving their players maximum time for recovery.  That is a fair advantage in September.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,995]

Carlton are tanking 

[3726062254 5]

11 hours ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Carlton are tanking 

Tanking and faking more medical reports. Sorry, could not resist.

[Ted Lasso 17,277]

If we beat Brisbane by 40-50 points the % should get us over the line so long as we don't get belted by the pies 

[What 18,810]

40 minutes ago, Abe said:

If we beat Brisbane by 40-50 points the % should get us over the line so long as we don't get belted by the pies 

40-50 wont be anywhere near enough to have any safe % buffer over Essendon if we lost to the Pies.

We would need to smash the Lions by 100+ to get some real space.

If both Melbourne and Essendon win by 30 this week, and we lose by 12 points in Round 23 while Essendon win by 12, our % will be almost dead even with theirs.

Since its more likely they will smash the Dockers round 23, we really have to beat the Pies or risk the likely scenario of missing the 8 on %.

Having said that,  the Bombers can easily lose to the Suns tomorrow.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,595]

15 hours ago, monoccular said:

Honest Carlton!!  The Visy paper bag mob, the inventors of tanking whose recruit got another club investigated for their invention, the club with the doctors who repeatedly screw other teams' players at the MRP??  That honest Carlton??!!

Honest Carlton, as in they haven't really copped too many 10+ goal losses. Not for the other things you mentioned.

I expect Sydney to beat Carlton by just 7-9 goals.

[McQueen 17,864]

Apologies I've not caught up on a lot of this thread.

Thursday and Saturday night are the elims?

[monoccular 16,562]

1 hour ago, Petraccattack said:

40-50 wont be anywhere near enough to have any safe % buffer over Essendon if we lost to the Pies.

We would need to smash the Lions by 100+ to get some real space.

If both Melbourne and Essendon win by 30 this week, and we lose by 12 points in Round 23 while Essendon win by 12, our % will be almost dead even with theirs.

Since its more likely they will smash the Dockers round 23, we really have to beat the Pies or risk the likely scenario of missing the 8 on %.

Having said that,  the Bombers can easily lose to the Suns tomorrow.

How about just winning both?

[What 18,810]

9 minutes ago, monoccular said:

How about just winning both?

 

'We really have to beat the Pies or risk the likely scenario of missing the 8 on %.'

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

This is my final ladder with us winning our last two, even if win one then I have us in eight on percentage playing Richmond which is probably a better outcome but I'd rather win both games just to be safe.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Clint Bizkit

[rpfc 27,669]

30 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

This is my final ladder with us winning our last two, even if win one then I have us in eight on percentage playing Richmond which is probably a better outcome but I'd rather win both games just to be safe.

I know you finagled that to get Sydney a top 4 spot so we can avoid them.

I know because I have been doing the same thing...

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Just now, rpfc said:

I know you finagled that to get Sydney a top 4 spot so we can avoid them.

I know because I have been doing the same thing...

 

I think they will win their last two and I can see Richmond dropping one of their last two.

[old55 21,833]

13 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

I think they will win their last two and I can see Richmond dropping one of their last two.

Which game do the Dogs lose?  That's really the key - if the Dogs lose one we really only need to win one.

We'll know that before the Collingwood game because it's Hawks v Dogs next Friday night.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Fifty-5

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

1 minute ago, Fifty-5 said:

Which game do the Dogs lose?  That's really the key - if the Dogs lose one we really only need to win one.

We'll know that before the Collingwood game because it's Hawks v Dogs next Friday night.

I have them beating Port Adelaide but losing to Hawthorn.

[GCDee 3,110]

9 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

I have them beating Port Adelaide but losing to Hawthorn.

They will lose to the Hawks in hodges farewell game. 

Not confident about them this week either....

[Nasher 33,246]

You'll all be very pleased to know that it's still mathematically possible for Hawthorn to make the 8. It does rely on them winning both games and all bar one of the other contenders losing both their games though.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

12 minutes ago, Nasher said:

You'll all be very pleased to know that it's still mathematically possible for Hawthorn to make the 8. It does rely on them winning both games and all bar one of the other contenders losing both their games though.

If they make finals they will do a lot of damage too.

[SFebes 4,748]

2 hours ago, Nasher said:

You'll all be very pleased to know that it's still mathematically possible for Hawthorn to make the 8. It does rely on them winning both games and all bar one of the other contenders losing both their games though.

And Richmond can still finish 9th!

[Nasher 33,246]

1 minute ago, SFebey said:

And Richmond can still finish 9th!

Hah, yes, although that's an even bigger stretch as it would involve Western Bulldogs clawing back about 14% on them.

[Lucifers Hero 37,505]

12 minutes ago, SFebey said:

And Richmond can still finish 9th!

I prefer the scenario where they go out in straight sets, again!! 

It will be the 4th finals series in 5 years where they have not one a final!

It is highly likely they lose to Adel in their first final then meet Sydney the following week.  Lose that and out in straight sets

Edited August 18, 2017 by Lucifer's Hero

[layzie 30,207]

23 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I prefer the scenario where they go out in straight sets, again!! 

It will be the 4th finals series in 5 years where they have not one a final!

It is highly likely they lose to Adel in their first final then meet Sydney the following week.  Lose that and out in straight sets

I would love that scenario too but I'd rather them stay out of the top 4. Can't chance them getting through to a prelim

[Sir Why You Little 35,310]

45 minutes ago, SFebey said:

And Richmond can still finish 9th!

https://www.triplem.com.au/sport/afl/news/richmond-can-still-finish-9th

 

hahaha

[SFebes 4,748]

1 hour ago, Sir Why You Little said:

https://www.triplem.com.au/sport/afl/news/richmond-can-still-finish-9th

 

hahaha

Love it!