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Road to the finals (the last 12 games)

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Heres our post-bye fixture..   a couple of classic 'eight point games' in there...  notably vs Port at the G, and Saints at the G. The Friday night game vs the Swans seems to stick out as a huge one too, though all games are equally as important.

It is conceivable that in this incredibly close season, 11 wins could get a spot in the eight. Our percentage is going to be so important (as long as it stays healthy).

 

Round 12 vs Collingwood (MCG)

Round 13 vs Western Bulldogs (Etihad)

Round 14 vs West Coast (Domain Stadium - Perth)

Round 15 vs Sydney (MCG)

Round 16 vs Carlton (MCG)

Round 17 vs Adelaide (TIO - Darwin)

Round 18 vs Port Adelaide (MCG)

Round 19 vs North Melbourne (Hobart)

Round 20 vs GWS (UNSW - Sydney)

Round 21 vs St.Kilda (MCG)

Round 22 vs Brisbane (MCG)

Round 23 vs Collingwood (MCG)

 

 

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    Optimistically, we can get 7, possibly 8 wins in the run home. That's us playing finals. Rounds 13, 14, 17 and 20 look very hard. But we can jag at least one of these

    And we need to beat Norf, we just need to. Not just because of the points but because I hate that non entity of a club. Watched one of there players stand over Vince when he was  doubled up on the ground and scream in his ear. It was just shite and symbolic of how that tin can club has bullied us. That needs to end. 

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    1 minute ago, Return to Glory said:

    Optimistically, we can get 7, possibly 8 wins in the run home. That's us playing finals. Rounds 13, 14, 17 and 20 look very hard. But we can jag at least one of these

    And we need to beat Norf, we just need to. Not just because of the points but because I hate that non entity of a club. Watched one of there players stand over Vince when he was  doubled up on the ground and scream in his ear. It was just shite and symbolic of how that tin can club has bullied us. That needs to end. 

    Eminently doable.  Shows the impact of losing the freo game, but 5 and 5 without Gawn and Hogan I would've taken any day. 

    Gawn back soon and self belief should get us there. Great % position also.

    The 8 pointers mentioned earlier means once we beat the Pies in 2 weeks  we are in the 8, and then in the clubs hands entirely to stay there.

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    Round 12 vs Collingwood (MCG)---win

    Round 13 vs Western Bulldogs (Etihad)---loss

    Round 14 vs West Coast (Domain Stadium - Perth)------loss

    Round 15 vs Sydney (MCG)----win

    Round 16 vs Carlton (MCG)-----win

    Round 17 vs Adelaide (TIO - Darwin)---win

    Round 18 vs Port Adelaide (MCG)----win

    Round 19 vs North Melbourne (Hobart)---win

    Round 20 vs GWS (UNSW - Sydney)---loss

    Round 21 vs St.Kilda (MCG)-----win

    Round 22 vs Brisbane (MCG)----win

    Round 23 vs Collingwood (MCG)-----win

     

    think im being optimistic but I would say we will drop a game against a team we should win and we will jag a win against a bulldogs or eagles in Perth, some very interesting games the Friday night game against the swans sticks out as a massive game for us on the big stage 

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    The only team I fear is Melbourne, we can beat anybody and lose to anybody. 

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    Our track record vs those teams:

    • MCG games: Coll, Syd, Carl, Port, StK, Bris, Coll.  Beat them all in the 2016/17 except Sydney.  Sydney are a young side and inconsistent, like us.  If we can fix our record at the G this year and adapt our game style to the bigger ground we will win all of them.
    • Bulldogs - We have multiple wins at Etihad and the Bulldogs are far from a settled side.
    • Adelaide - We won in Darwin (2016) and beat them a few weeks ago.  They thrashed Freo last night but it wasn't a convincing win.
    • Eagles - We nearly beat them in WA last year and could have won with a bit more luck from umpires.
    • North - We nearly beat them in Hobart last year and could have won with a bit more luck from umpires. 
    • GWS - They're best players will be back by then - tough one.

    The only one I think is a definite loss is GWS.

    The others are all winnable, if the team turns up before quarter time.  And, we must find a way to win at the G - 7 scalps up for grabs if we do!

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    14 minutes ago, Return to Glory said:

    Optimistically, we can get 7, possibly 8 wins in the run home. That's us playing finals. Rounds 13, 14, 17 and 20 look very hard. But we can jag at least one of these

    And we need to beat Norf, we just need to. Not just because of the points but because I hate that non entity of a club. Watched one of there players stand over Vince when he was  doubled up on the ground and scream in his ear. It was just shite and symbolic of how that tin can club has bullied us. That needs to end. 

    That was Higgins....I'm sure it's stored somewhere...

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    No one has yet to really outclass us with top-flight footy (North probably played the best game against imo). Such that there's no reason to mark down the Dogs for example as a loss. The dates and venues are the real killer. Multiple, consecutive six-day breaks, a regional backwater tour, and only one game at Etihad (in the bizarro world we now find ourselves in). Otherwise I would feel confident backing us in. Player-management will be key, and in a contradictory sense, so will settling the team and getting a run on with our sails up. I'm not sure our young coaching brigade will have the confidence (or luxury) to pull the right levers at the right time. 

    Note to OP: UNSW is in Canberra (as far as I'm aware).

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    If i was told at the start of year that Gawn and Hogan will miss more games than they play in the opening 10 rounds and we sat 5-5 I would take that for sure!!

     

    Lots of improvement for us in the back half of the year and can make a real good run at it. Hogan and Gawn are arguably our two most important players.

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    The hard bit is going to be the amount of 6 day breaks we have, this section is brutal:

    Round 12 Collingwood

    6 day break 

    Round 13 W. Bulldogs

    6 day break 

    Round 14 West coast (In perth)

    6 day break 

    Round 15 Sydney 

    This stretch here will define our season

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    20 minutes ago, Skuit said:

    No one has yet to really outclass us with top-flight footy (North probably played the best game against imo). Such that there's no reason to mark down the Dogs for example as a loss. The dates and venues are the real killer. Multiple, consecutive six-day breaks, a regional backwater tour, and only one game at Etihad (in the bizarro world we now find ourselves in). Otherwise I would feel confident backing us in. Player-management will be key, and in a contradictory sense, so will settling the team and getting a run on with our sails up. I'm not sure our young coaching brigade will have the confidence (or luxury) to pull the right levers at the right time. 

    Note to OP: UNSW is in Canberra (as far as I'm aware).

    UNSW is in Sydney. (My thirdborn studies there.) UNSW Oval is in Canberra. Figure that out?

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    1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

    I didn't realise we played North again, of all the games I want to win that one the most.

    Of All of them. I want to beat collingwood twice. So next year in the preview blurb, we have will have beaten them 5 times in a row!

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    Well you should have a good idea by end of round 15. Other than Collingwood in Round 12 which won't be easy the following three rounds look very difficult.

    Beat Collingwood and win two out of those three and there are grounds for limited optimism.

    Beating the 16th ranked team in the GC is better than losing to them a la Carlton and Essendon last year but we have such a long way to go.

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    6 minutes ago, bingers said:

    UNSW is in Sydney. (My thirdborn studies there.) UNSW Oval is in Canberra. Figure that out?

    Universities now have to operate as pseudo-corporate entities in the liberal-economic market - hence, they become naming sponsors of football-ovals in regions far removed from their primary campus . . . ?

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    1 hour ago, jumbo returns said:

    Wow....tough run home!

    7 of those 11 games are against sides who are outside the 8 so I would argue it isn't and there are no excuses should we miss finals.

    The only relatively easy team to play against this year is Brisbane.

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    17 minutes ago, Is Dom Is Good said:

    7 of those 11 games are against sides who are outside the 8 so I would argue it isn't and there are no excuses should we miss finals.

    The only relatively easy team to play against this year is Brisbane.

    We're Melbourne...MFCSS..I'm scared of the Lions! :)

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    Glad we've lost players during the easy games. With Gawn and Hogan back i believe we're a top 4 side. They bring so much. But also relieves everyone else. Frees them up.. pedo to chf, watts to flank (although he was great at chf yesterday)

    Also Joel Smith will be huge! Get him back later. Can't remember a more impressive first game. Saints were dominating early and he looked very comfortable. 

    The pressure our midfield brings is so so good!  Tyson is our 6th best mid. That's good news for Dees

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    Being where we are on the ladder instead of sitting in the 8 might be a blessing in disguise for preparation for the second half of the season. 

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    To impact the finals series ( and to make it there) we need to get consistently good efforts from our bottom six players.

    Ask yourselves how many times has our notional bottom six featured in the top six  (or even top 10) players for a game.

    Our bottom six is in fact a bottom ten and we move 3 or 4 in and out each week

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    7 minutes ago, Stretchyourself said:

    Also Joel Smith will be huge! Get him back later. Can't remember a more impressive first game. Saints were dominating early and he looked very comfortable. 

     

    Let's not get ahead of our self with not seeing a more impressive first game. He literally played 15 minutes and had a few touches..

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    1 hour ago, Skuit said:

    No one has yet to really outclass us with top-flight footy (North probably played the best game against imo). Such that there's no reason to mark down the Dogs for example as a loss. The dates and venues are the real killer. Multiple, consecutive six-day breaks, a regional backwater tour, and only one game at Etihad (in the bizarro world we now find ourselves in). Otherwise I would feel confident backing us in. Player-management will be key, and in a contradictory sense, so will settling the team and getting a run on with our sails up. I'm not sure our young coaching brigade will have the confidence (or luxury) to pull the right levers at the right time. 

    Note to OP: UNSW is in Canberra (as far as I'm aware).

    What do you mean by this @Skuit?

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