BOUNCE BACK by The Oracle

Melbourne and Hawthorn who face off against each other this week have more in common than having once almost merged and about to wear a blue jumper with a red v triangle and an embroidered picture of a bird on the front. 

They also share the MCG as their main home ground, their supporters are associated with the leafy suburbs of Melbourne and in recent times, James Frawley graced the colours of both teams. Even more recently, both have bounced back from disastrous five game losing streaks to start off a season. 

Of course, the Hawks turned their bounce into a successful leap from the bottom of the ladder into a finals appearance, making it to the semifinals in 2024 and this year, they’re riding high in third place on the AFL table. 

The Demons are just three games into their 2025 bounce back, and are yet to climb their way out of the bottom four although they are sitting a game and percentage out of the top eight. However, with the current sportsbet odds of $3.90 to win this week’s encounter, it seems a forlorn hope that their upward progression will continue much longer.

The Hawks destroyed the Tigers last week and the way they went about it was clean, efficient and clinical. They were direct, their disposal efficiency was high and, after quarter time, their kicking for goal was accurate. The question about them is that despite sitting in third place, who have they beaten so far this season? 

Only one team in the top eight which is GWS who are barely in that space and who provided soft opposition at a safe venue, the University of Tasmania Stadium. Leaving aside that you can only deal with whatever challenges you have to face, the question remains open as to how would they react to the application of heavy pressure such as that applied to them in their losses to Port Adelaide and Geelong? 

There’s no doubt that this is one of the questions exercising Simon Goodwin’s mind at the moment. He would also be concerned that despite their improved form of late, his Demons have yet to prove themselves against heavy pressure throughout a game of football and that their once highly vaunted defence has been exposed this year on more than one occasion when opposition teams have attacked them head on. 

Unfortunately, as long as Jake Lever remains a missing piece in this defence, Melbourne will continue to struggle, notwithstanding the strong form of Steven May, Tom McDonald, Trent Rivers (when he’s down back), the improvement of Jake Bowey and the return of Judd McVee. Caleb Windsor and Xavier Lindsay are also adding pace and precision ball movement when they are called upon to play in defence.

Max Gawn, Melbourne’s man marvel in the ruck, its valiant skipper and now ball-magnet will be under pressure to repeat the heroics of the past few weeks, especially as he is up against a more formidable opponent than those he has faced recently. His name might be unfortunate but Lloyd Meek is anything but meek and he’s waiting for the challenge. The Demons’ on ball division also has the challenge of improving against a better opposition. They must be able to better follow up and improve on converting any advantage from initial clearance wins. 

If they do that, then they might be able to apply the pressure and expose weaknesses that Port Adelaide was able to do when they caused that big upset in Round 5. 

I would like to think that Melbourne can continue to bounce back as it has done in recent weeks but the oddsmakers suggest otherwise and the doubts in my mind created by the team’s poor start to this season remain.

I’m therefore tipping Hawthorn to win but it won’t be emphatic. My crystal ball says they will salute by 15 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Hawthorn at the MCG Saturday 10 May 2025 at 1.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD  

Overall Melbourne 83 wins Hawthorn 87 wins 1 draw
At the MCG Melbourne 43 wins Hawthorn 46 wins 1 draw
Last 5 meetings Melbourne 4 wins Hawthorn 0 wins 1 draw
The Coaches Goodwin 3 wins  Mitchell 0 wins

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 14.9.93 defeated Hawthorn 5.8.38 in Round 2, 2024 at The MCG

It was March 23 and the Demons were up and about while the Hawks played without any purpose or direction. Max Gawn and Christian Petracca starred, Bayley Fritsch booted five goals and, but for injuries to key defenders Jake Lever and Steven May, it would have been a perfect day for the club

THE TEAMS (to be loaded when available)

MELBOURNE

B J. Bowey, S. May, J. McVee

HB C. Salem, T. McDonald, T. Rivers

C X. Lindsay, C. Petracca, E. Langdon

HF K. Chandler, B. Fritsch, T. Sparrow

F C. Spargo, J. van Rooyen, K. Pickett

FOLL M. Gawn, C. Oliver, H. Langford

I/C M. Jefferson, H. Sharp, D. Turner, C. Windsor SUB K. Tholstrup

EMG B. Howes, A. Johnson, B. Laurie

IN M. Jefferson, C. Oliver, J. van Rooyen

OUT J.Melksham (managed), H.Petty (concussion), J. Viney (concussion)

HAWTHORN

B C. Jiath, J. Weddle, J. Sicily

HB J. Battle, J. Impey, M. D'Ambrosio

C K. Amon, J. Ward, H. Morrison

HF B. Hardwick, N. Watson, D. Moore

F J. Gunston, M. Chol, C. Macdonald

FOLL L. Meek, J. Newcombe, H. Hustwaite

I/C L. Breust, J. Ginnivan, F. Maginness, J. Worpel SUB B. Macdonald

EMG S. Frost, N. Reeves, J. Serong

IN K.Amon

OUT T. Barrass (managed)

NUMBERS by Stan the Stats Man

Melbourne was travelling well injury-wise at the end of 2024 but a series of injuries through the months after the Christmas break caused some havoc with the team’s list with two new players coming in via the Preseason Supplemental Draft and the disruption continued into the opening rounds. The player the team has missed the most is Jake Lever who is still a few weeks away. More lately, the situation has stabilized.

ADAMS, Jed CDFC 5 games, 0 goals. Developing nicely at Casey and closing in on an AFL debut.

BILLINGS, Jack MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CDFC 4 games, 1 goal. Failed to impress at his only outing.

BOWEY, Jake MFC 8 games, 2 goals. Has recovered well from last year’s injury woes and has been one of the team’s best this year.

BROWN, Kynan CDFC 5 games, 1 goal. Knocking on the door to promotion.

CAMPBELL, Tom CDFC 4 games, 2 goals. Will be a handy back up when Max is finally given a rest.

CHANDLER, Kade MFC 8 games, 9 goals. Continues to improve and has been important in the small forward role.    

CULLEY, Jai CDFC 3 games, 0 goals. Biding his time at Casey where he has impressed.

FRITSCH, Bayley MFC 7 games, 7 goals, CDFC 1 game, 1 goal. Playing well below his best.

FULLARTON, Tom MFC 2 games, 0 goals, CDFC 3 games, 10 goals. Just went in his two games at AFL level.

GAWN, Max MFC 8 games, 1 goal. Superlative as a leader and in the ruck.       

HENDERSON, Jack MFC 5 games, 2 goals, CDFC 1 game, 2 goals. Had his moments after a long wait at Werribee VFL.

HORE, Marty CDFC 1 game, 0 goals. Struggling with a calf injury.

HOWES, Blake 4 games, 0 goals, CDFC 2 games, 0 goals. Had some good moments at senior level but now back at Casey.

JEFFERSON, Matthew MFC 2 games, 2 goals, CDFC 2 games, 1 goal. Made a great start but restricted by injury and has been quiet at Casey since his return. 

JOHNSON, Aidan MFC 2 games, 1 goal, CDFC 3 games, 6 goals. A mature aged hard nut with a VFL background at Werribee – has shown some good signs.

KENTFIELD, Luker CDFC 2 games, 0 goals. Back after a prolonged illness. Has had some good moments in defence at Casey.

LANGDON, Ed MFC 8 games, 5 goals. Masterful on a wing with some midfield moments.

LANGFORD, Harvey MFC 7 games, 4 goals, CDFC 1 game, 1 goal. An emerging big bodied rising midfielder.

LAURIE, Bailey CDFC 5 games, 5 goals. Remains on the periphery in the VFL.

LEVER, Jake MFC 2 games, 0 goals. Injury has plagued his season to date. Sorely missed in defence.

LINDSAY, Xavier MFC 7 games, 0 goals. Has made a good debut as a polished wingman/half back with silky skills.          

McADAM, Shane — long term injury (Achilles)

McDONALD, Tom MFC 7 games, 0 goals. An invaluable rock in defence.

McVEE, Judd MFC 2 games, 0 goals, CDFC 1 game, 0 goals. Just coming back from injury.    

MAY, Steven MFC 6 games, 0 goals. Still the solid, dependable defender. 

MELKSHAM, Jake MFC  5 games, 2 goals. Classy in attack.

MENTHA, Ricky CDFC 5 games, 0 goals. Learning the trade as a small man with some smooth skills and pace.

MONIZ-WAKEFIELD, Andy — long term injury 

OLIVER, Clayton MFC 7 games, 1 goal. Coming back from a year and a half of injury and personal issues. Still working with the club on his wellness but has shown in patches that he still has it.

PETRACCA, Christian MFC 8  games, 10 goals. A great comeback after last year’s horror injury and off field issues.

PETTY, Harrison MFC 8 games, 7 goals. Served the club well at both ends of the ground until he was subbed off with concussion last week.       

PICKETT, Kysaiah MFC 5 games, 9 goals. Exciting player with more midfield moments after coming back from his 3 week suspension at the start of the season.      

RIVERS, Trent  MFC 8 games, 1 goal. Continues to impress whether in defence or on the ball.    

SALEM, Christian MFC 8 games, 0 goals. Strong in defence.   

SESTAN, Ollie CDFC 4 games, 1 goal. Another young player on the cusp of senior promotion.

SHARP, Harry MFC 8 games, 5 goals. Impressed with his pace around the ground and good around goal. 

SPARGO, Charlie MFC 6 games, 1 goal. Working back into the game after last year’s bad run with injury.    

SPARROW, Tom MFC 8 games, 3 goals. Adapting to a new role this year and has shown glimpses of settling down at half forward.     

THOLSTRUP, Koltyn MFC 3 games, 1 goal. Coming back well from injury and showing promise.         

TURNER, Daniel MFC 4 games, 5 goals, CDFC  1 game, 5 goals. Has been impressive at both ends of the ground.

VAN ROOYEN, Jacob  MFC  5 games, 4 goals, CDFC 2 games, 6 goals. Was disappointing as a key forward under pressure and suffered his first slump in form. Good last up at Casey.

VERRALL, Will CDFC 5 games, 2 goals. Showing some great signs of improvement as a backup ruckman.

VINEY, Jack MFC 8 games, 2 goals. Hardheaded on ball bull who has played a role in quelling some of the opposition’s best in recent games.         

WINDSOR, Caleb MFC 6 games, 2 goals. Hard and fast – another rising star at the club.        

WOEWOEDIN, Taj MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CDFC 4 games, 0 goals. Not quite there at this stage.

Injury List: Round 9

Clayton Oliver  — personal / Test

Ricky Mentha  — concussion / 1 - 2 weeks 

Harrison Petty  — concussion / 1 - 2 weeks 

Jake Lever — ankle / 2 - 3 weeks 

Marty Hore — calf / 3 - 4 weeks

Shane McAdam — Achilles / next season

Andy Moniz-Wakefield — knee / next season