Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever

[Moonshadow 17,675]

Given he grew up in Romsey, my guess is that the club will billet him out to Demonland's own Romsey royalty. A couple of months at the Manor and Lever will surely become a greater deviant than Col Silva. Make sure you at least keep his fitness levels up Uncle Bitter

[Gator 17,279]

I'm one who likes the deal, but also likes draft picks, as I recognise the value if you get them right.

I just think the timing was right for this deal.  We've stockpiled elite talent over the last 4-5 years and now is the time to back the list for a genuine assault up the ladder.

 

[Rogue 585]

4 hours ago, Demons1858 said:

The MFC  based sample is skewed and are outliers due to never seen before recruitment, development, and coaching by MFC.

Best you get a sample from all clubs to make your point.

I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'.

Pick 12 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Hawthorn     Cyril Rioli     185     273     44 //All-Australian x5
2008         Sydney     Lewis Johnston     10 (2)     16     2     - career over after four seasons at two clubs
2009         Carlton     Kane Lucas     42     15     1     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2010         Melbourne     Lucas Cook     0     0     0     - career over after two seasons
2011         Brisbane     Sam Docherty     92 (13)     14     6 //All-Australian x1
2012         GWS     Kristian Jaksch     14 (7)     3     0   - moved on from second club
2013         Richmond     Ben Lennon     21     10     0     - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2014         Richmond     Corey Ellis     23     7     1     - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2015         Carlton     Charlie Curnow     27     25     0     - 21 games in 2017
2016         North Melbourne     Jy Simpkin     13     9     0 - 13 games in 2017

Pick 10 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Adelaide     Patrick Dangerfield     202 (154)     232     165 //All-Australian x5
2008         Adelaide     Phil Davis     121 (18)     6     1     
2009         Essendon     Jake Melksham     133 (114)     78     3     - traded for pick 25
2010         Gold Coast     Daniel Gorringe     26 (22)     11     0     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2011         GWS     Liam Sumner     32 (12)     19     0     - career over after six seasons at two clubs
2012         Essendon     Joe Daniher     93     173     19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1
2013         Collingwood     Nathan Freeman     0     0     0     - yet to make debut
2014         Geelong     Nakia Cockatoo     32     25     0     - 11 games in 2017
2015         Carlton     Harry McKay     2     3     0     - 2 games in 2017
2016         Gold Coast     Jack Bowes     11     2     0    - 11 games in 2017

How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak.

The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Rogue

[Dr.D 1,771]

well considering I rate cyril higher than Lever. Lets not forget cyril helped hawks win 3 flags I'd go Cyril and every other player from 2007. so thats 10 combinations and then Dangerfield is also better so I'd take Dangerfield and any other player in 2006 so that's another 10 combinations. So that's a sub-total of 20, plus i'd probably prefer Docherty and Phil Davis so in total there are 21 combinations that i'd prefer over 1 jake lever.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Dr.D

[Rogue 585]

13 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

well considering I rate cyril higher than Lever. Lets not forget cyril helped hawks win 3 flags I'd go Cyril and every other player from 2007. so thats 10 combinations and then Dangerfield is also better so I'd take Dangerfield and any other player in 2006 so that's another 10 combinations. So that's a sub-total of 20, plus i'd probably prefer Docherty and Phil Davis so in total there are 21 combinations that i'd prefer over 1 jake lever.

21 combinations out of how many? 

(Based on what you've said, we should be happy with the Lever deal, right?).

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Rogue

[DubDee 25,669]

48 minutes ago, ProDee said:

It's the first time 'ever' since Treloar 2 years ago.

I said the most ever.

i.e. there has never been more given up for a player

[Gator 17,279]

6 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I said the most ever.

i.e. there has never been more given up for a player

Apologies.

I don't think there's ever been 3.  Is that what you mean ?

[DubDee 25,669]

29 minutes ago, Rogue said:

I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'.

Pick 12 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Hawthorn     Cyril Rioli     185     273     44 //All-Australian x5
2008         Sydney     Lewis Johnston     10 (2)     16     2     - career over after four seasons at two clubs
2009         Carlton     Kane Lucas     42     15     1     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2010         Melbourne     Lucas Cook     0     0     0     - career over after two seasons
2011         Brisbane     Sam Docherty     92 (13)     14     6 //All-Australian x1
2012         GWS     Kristian Jaksch     14 (7)     3     0   - moved on from second club
2013         Richmond     Ben Lennon     21     10     0     - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2014         Richmond     Corey Ellis     23     7     1     - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2015         Carlton     Charlie Curnow     27     25     0     - 21 games in 2017
2016         North Melbourne     Jy Simpkin     13     9     0 - 13 games in 2017

Pick 10 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Adelaide     Patrick Dangerfield     202 (154)     232     165 //All-Australian x5
2008         Adelaide     Phil Davis     121 (18)     6     1     
2009         Essendon     Jake Melksham     133 (114)     78     3     - traded for pick 25
2010         Gold Coast     Daniel Gorringe     26 (22)     11     0     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2011         GWS     Liam Sumner     32 (12)     19     0     - career over after six seasons at two clubs
2012         Essendon     Joe Daniher     93     173     19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1
2013         Collingwood     Nathan Freeman     0     0     0     - yet to make debut
2014         Geelong     Nakia Cockatoo     32     25     0     - 11 games in 2017
2015         Carlton     Harry McKay     2     3     0     - 2 games in 2017
2016         Gold Coast     Jack Bowes     11     2     0    - 11 games in 2017

How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak.

The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated.

id probably take 4 out of those 10 years.  so I guess we won the trade 60-40???

[DubDee 25,669]

Just now, ProDee said:

Apologies.

I don't think there's ever been 3.  Is that what you mean ?

no worries.  yeah never 2 and player or 3 first rounders.

or 2 really high picks?   treloar was 7 and 9 but they got 25 back so depends how we go next year.

Judd was 3 and Kennedy was it?  but kennedy was an unknown

morton was 88.  hard to judge   

[Go the Biff 3,414]

Not sure what the fuss is about. When the numbers are crunched, as some have done in this thread., we have procured a very good player for a fair price.

Lever is a 10 year investment.He fills an immediate need now and will only develop and get better given his age. I also anticipate that his inclusion will make the likes of Pig and OMac better players as well

It's all good !

[Gator 17,279]

2 minutes ago, DubDee said:

no worries.  yeah never 2 and player or 3 first rounders.

or 2 really high picks?   treloar was 7 and 9 but they got 25 back so depends how we go next year.

Judd was 3 and Kennedy was it?  but kennedy was an unknown

morton was 88.  hard to judge   

Judd probably the closest.  Pick 3, 20 (close to first round) and Josh Kennedy.

[Gator 17,279]

After "crunching the numbers" Plough says the trade on a points system (I think it's been said by others) values Lever at pick 4.

Said it's a "win/win".

[jackaub 1,402]

38 minutes ago, Rogue said:

I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'.

Pick 12 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Hawthorn     Cyril Rioli     185     273     44 //All-Australian x5
2008         Sydney     Lewis Johnston     10 (2)     16     2     - career over after four seasons at two clubs
2009         Carlton     Kane Lucas     42     15     1     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2010         Melbourne     Lucas Cook     0     0     0     - career over after two seasons
2011         Brisbane     Sam Docherty     92 (13)     14     6 //All-Australian x1
2012         GWS     Kristian Jaksch     14 (7)     3     0   - moved on from second club
2013         Richmond     Ben Lennon     21     10     0     - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2014         Richmond     Corey Ellis     23     7     1     - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team)
2015         Carlton     Charlie Curnow     27     25     0     - 21 games in 2017
2016         North Melbourne     Jy Simpkin     13     9     0 - 13 games in 2017

Pick 10 from 2007:

Year         Drafting club Name          Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes
2007         Adelaide     Patrick Dangerfield     202 (154)     232     165 //All-Australian x5
2008         Adelaide     Phil Davis     121 (18)     6     1     
2009         Essendon     Jake Melksham     133 (114)     78     3     - traded for pick 25
2010         Gold Coast     Daniel Gorringe     26 (22)     11     0     - career over after seven seasons at two clubs
2011         GWS     Liam Sumner     32 (12)     19     0     - career over after six seasons at two clubs
2012         Essendon     Joe Daniher     93     173     19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1
2013         Collingwood     Nathan Freeman     0     0     0     - yet to make debut
2014         Geelong     Nakia Cockatoo     32     25     0     - 11 games in 2017
2015         Carlton     Harry McKay     2     3     0     - 2 games in 2017
2016         Gold Coast     Jack Bowes     11     2     0    - 11 games in 2017

How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak.

The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated.

I have been banging on about it for years

Couldnt agree more

[Nascent 9,109]

Now for the all important question, what number will he be playing in?

(4?) 8, 9, 27, 31, 46.

With respect to Trenners I reckon 9 would be a good fit.

[SFebes 4,884]

1 minute ago, Nascent said:

Now for the all important question, what number will he be playing in?

(4?) 8, 9, 27, 31, 46.

With respect to Trenners I reckon 9 would be a good fit.

I think they should retire 31 forever & get some pride back in to no.8 after turd wore it.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

3 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Now for the all important question, what number will he be playing in?

(4?) 8, 9, 27, 31, 46.

With respect to Trenners I reckon 9 would be a good fit.

Upside down 6, his old number. 

[Demon Jack 6,862]

First official image of Lever in the red and blue!

Edited October 12, 2017 by Demon Jack

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

3 minutes ago, Demon Jack said:

First official image of Lever in the red and blue!

How nice of us to pack him an MFC polo for his trip to Europe.

[Whispering_Jack 29,800]

I'm going to leave it to you all to argue the toss about whether we paid overs or unders. It's not relevant to me because we have finally secured a highly credentialled player who we were interested in getting some three to four years ago and who is going to fit perfectly into our line up. That's what trading and drafting is all about.

In the meantime, I'm going to re-read The Draftees: How Five Boys Made it to the AFL National Draft

The book's blurb  "

Meet Jake Lever, Peter Wright, Isaac Heeney, Tom Lamb and Clem Smith. In 2015, they played their first game. In years to come, they could become stars. But first they had to be drafted to a club." 

 

[Axis of Bob 11,686]

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

I'm one who likes the deal, but also likes draft picks, as I recognise the value if you get them right.

I just think the timing was right for this deal.  We've stockpiled elite talent over the last 4-5 years and now is the time to back the list for a genuine assault up the ladder.

 

Fully agree. 

We haven't been in this position for a while, but now is the time to use good picks to get guaranteed value in important positions. More kids doesn't help us much anymore. If we picked Lever at pick 4 with 3 years of development, then we'd be very excited.

[BAMF 4,300]

4 hours ago, Bonkers said:

We got a second rounder back. Pick 35 was the Cows second rounder this year.

Thanks! the live feed I saw didnt have this.(or I missed it somehow) Super happy now.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,115]

7 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Lever would want to be good for us.

Huge gamble.

How is this a huge gamble? At worst you get the existing output of a 21 year old elite intercept defender as already seen. At best you get the expected incremental improvement of a 21 year old 196cm defender over his next 4 years of development into what should be his peak. Skys the limit. Anyone that thinks we paid overs over rates the draft. Even so I suspect we will use 27 and 35 to get back into the top 20 some how. Those that say let him walk to the draft, North have deep pockets and I suspect would have snapped him up before us. Similar to the Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong models, pick your targets, be open with what you think is fair, get your player and move on.

 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,189]

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

I'm one who likes the deal, but also likes draft picks, as I recognise the value if you get them right.

I just think the timing was right for this deal.  We've stockpiled elite talent over the last 4-5 years and now is the time to back the list for a genuine assault up the ladder.

 

My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's).

But if the strategy pays off with a flag or 3 over the next decade I'm sure I'll live with it

[Gator 17,279]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's).

But if the strategy pays off with a flag or 3 over the next decade I'm sure I'll live with it

We may well trade back in.

[The Stigga 1,094]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's).

But if the strategy pays off with a flag or 3 over the next decade I'm sure I'll live with it

Who's to say we wont have a first round this year and next year?