Moonshadow 17,678 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 Given he grew up in Romsey, my guess is that the club will billet him out to Demonland's own Romsey royalty. A couple of months at the Manor and Lever will surely become a greater deviant than Col Silva. Make sure you at least keep his fitness levels up Uncle Bitter 1 Quote
Gator 18,053 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 I'm one who likes the deal, but also likes draft picks, as I recognise the value if you get them right. I just think the timing was right for this deal. We've stockpiled elite talent over the last 4-5 years and now is the time to back the list for a genuine assault up the ladder. 7 Quote
Rogue 585 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, Demons1858 said: The MFC based sample is skewed and are outliers due to never seen before recruitment, development, and coaching by MFC. Best you get a sample from all clubs to make your point. I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'. Pick 12 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Hawthorn Cyril Rioli 185 273 44 //All-Australian x52008 Sydney Lewis Johnston 10 (2) 16 2 - career over after four seasons at two clubs2009 Carlton Kane Lucas 42 15 1 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs2010 Melbourne Lucas Cook 0 0 0 - career over after two seasons 2011 Brisbane Sam Docherty 92 (13) 14 6 //All-Australian x12012 GWS Kristian Jaksch 14 (7) 3 0 - moved on from second club 2013 Richmond Ben Lennon 21 10 0 - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2014 Richmond Corey Ellis 23 7 1 - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2015 Carlton Charlie Curnow 27 25 0 - 21 games in 2017 2016 North Melbourne Jy Simpkin 13 9 0 - 13 games in 2017 Pick 10 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Adelaide Patrick Dangerfield 202 (154) 232 165 //All-Australian x5 2008 Adelaide Phil Davis 121 (18) 6 1 2009 Essendon Jake Melksham 133 (114) 78 3 - traded for pick 25 2010 Gold Coast Daniel Gorringe 26 (22) 11 0 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs2011 GWS Liam Sumner 32 (12) 19 0 - career over after six seasons at two clubs2012 Essendon Joe Daniher 93 173 19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1 2013 Collingwood Nathan Freeman 0 0 0 - yet to make debut 2014 Geelong Nakia Cockatoo 32 25 0 - 11 games in 2017 2015 Carlton Harry McKay 2 3 0 - 2 games in 2017 2016 Gold Coast Jack Bowes 11 2 0 - 11 games in 2017 How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak. The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated. Edited October 12, 2017 by Rogue 1 Quote
Dr.D 1,771 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 (edited) well considering I rate cyril higher than Lever. Lets not forget cyril helped hawks win 3 flags I'd go Cyril and every other player from 2007. so thats 10 combinations and then Dangerfield is also better so I'd take Dangerfield and any other player in 2006 so that's another 10 combinations. So that's a sub-total of 20, plus i'd probably prefer Docherty and Phil Davis so in total there are 21 combinations that i'd prefer over 1 jake lever. Edited October 12, 2017 by Dr.D Quote
Rogue 585 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Dr.D said: well considering I rate cyril higher than Lever. Lets not forget cyril helped hawks win 3 flags I'd go Cyril and every other player from 2007. so thats 10 combinations and then Dangerfield is also better so I'd take Dangerfield and any other player in 2006 so that's another 10 combinations. So that's a sub-total of 20, plus i'd probably prefer Docherty and Phil Davis so in total there are 21 combinations that i'd prefer over 1 jake lever. 21 combinations out of how many? (Based on what you've said, we should be happy with the Lever deal, right?). Edited October 12, 2017 by Rogue Quote
DubDee 26,670 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 48 minutes ago, ProDee said: It's the first time 'ever' since Treloar 2 years ago. I said the most ever. i.e. there has never been more given up for a player Quote
Gator 18,053 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, DubDee said: I said the most ever. i.e. there has never been more given up for a player Apologies. I don't think there's ever been 3. Is that what you mean ? Quote
DubDee 26,670 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, Rogue said: I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'. Pick 12 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Hawthorn Cyril Rioli 185 273 44 //All-Australian x52008 Sydney Lewis Johnston 10 (2) 16 2 - career over after four seasons at two clubs2009 Carlton Kane Lucas 42 15 1 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs2010 Melbourne Lucas Cook 0 0 0 - career over after two seasons 2011 Brisbane Sam Docherty 92 (13) 14 6 //All-Australian x12012 GWS Kristian Jaksch 14 (7) 3 0 - moved on from second club 2013 Richmond Ben Lennon 21 10 0 - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2014 Richmond Corey Ellis 23 7 1 - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2015 Carlton Charlie Curnow 27 25 0 - 21 games in 2017 2016 North Melbourne Jy Simpkin 13 9 0 - 13 games in 2017 Pick 10 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Adelaide Patrick Dangerfield 202 (154) 232 165 //All-Australian x5 2008 Adelaide Phil Davis 121 (18) 6 1 2009 Essendon Jake Melksham 133 (114) 78 3 - traded for pick 25 2010 Gold Coast Daniel Gorringe 26 (22) 11 0 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs2011 GWS Liam Sumner 32 (12) 19 0 - career over after six seasons at two clubs2012 Essendon Joe Daniher 93 173 19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1 2013 Collingwood Nathan Freeman 0 0 0 - yet to make debut 2014 Geelong Nakia Cockatoo 32 25 0 - 11 games in 2017 2015 Carlton Harry McKay 2 3 0 - 2 games in 2017 2016 Gold Coast Jack Bowes 11 2 0 - 11 games in 2017 How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak. The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated. id probably take 4 out of those 10 years. so I guess we won the trade 60-40??? Quote
DubDee 26,670 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, ProDee said: Apologies. I don't think there's ever been 3. Is that what you mean ? no worries. yeah never 2 and player or 3 first rounders. or 2 really high picks? treloar was 7 and 9 but they got 25 back so depends how we go next year. Judd was 3 and Kennedy was it? but kennedy was an unknown morton was 88. hard to judge Quote
Go the Biff 3,474 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 Not sure what the fuss is about. When the numbers are crunched, as some have done in this thread., we have procured a very good player for a fair price. Lever is a 10 year investment.He fills an immediate need now and will only develop and get better given his age. I also anticipate that his inclusion will make the likes of Pig and OMac better players as well It's all good ! 4 Quote
Gator 18,053 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, DubDee said: no worries. yeah never 2 and player or 3 first rounders. or 2 really high picks? treloar was 7 and 9 but they got 25 back so depends how we go next year. Judd was 3 and Kennedy was it? but kennedy was an unknown morton was 88. hard to judge Judd probably the closest. Pick 3, 20 (close to first round) and Josh Kennedy. Quote
Gator 18,053 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 After "crunching the numbers" Plough says the trade on a points system (I think it's been said by others) values Lever at pick 4. Said it's a "win/win". Quote
jackaub 1,402 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 38 minutes ago, Rogue said: I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'. Pick 12 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Hawthorn Cyril Rioli 185 273 44 //All-Australian x52008 Sydney Lewis Johnston 10 (2) 16 2 - career over after four seasons at two clubs2009 Carlton Kane Lucas 42 15 1 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs2010 Melbourne Lucas Cook 0 0 0 - career over after two seasons 2011 Brisbane Sam Docherty 92 (13) 14 6 //All-Australian x12012 GWS Kristian Jaksch 14 (7) 3 0 - moved on from second club 2013 Richmond Ben Lennon 21 10 0 - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2014 Richmond Corey Ellis 23 7 1 - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2015 Carlton Charlie Curnow 27 25 0 - 21 games in 2017 2016 North Melbourne Jy Simpkin 13 9 0 - 13 games in 2017 Pick 10 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Adelaide Patrick Dangerfield 202 (154) 232 165 //All-Australian x5 2008 Adelaide Phil Davis 121 (18) 6 1 2009 Essendon Jake Melksham 133 (114) 78 3 - traded for pick 25 2010 Gold Coast Daniel Gorringe 26 (22) 11 0 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs2011 GWS Liam Sumner 32 (12) 19 0 - career over after six seasons at two clubs2012 Essendon Joe Daniher 93 173 19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1 2013 Collingwood Nathan Freeman 0 0 0 - yet to make debut 2014 Geelong Nakia Cockatoo 32 25 0 - 11 games in 2017 2015 Carlton Harry McKay 2 3 0 - 2 games in 2017 2016 Gold Coast Jack Bowes 11 2 0 - 11 games in 2017 How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak. The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated. I have been banging on about it for years Couldnt agree more 1 Quote
Nascent 9,345 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 Now for the all important question, what number will he be playing in? (4?) 8, 9, 27, 31, 46. With respect to Trenners I reckon 9 would be a good fit. 1 Quote
SFebes 4,884 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Nascent said: Now for the all important question, what number will he be playing in? (4?) 8, 9, 27, 31, 46. With respect to Trenners I reckon 9 would be a good fit. I think they should retire 31 forever & get some pride back in to no.8 after turd wore it. Quote
Dappa Dan 2,188 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Nascent said: Now for the all important question, what number will he be playing in? (4?) 8, 9, 27, 31, 46. With respect to Trenners I reckon 9 would be a good fit. Upside down 6, his old number. Quote
Demon Jack 7,194 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 (edited) First official image of Lever in the red and blue! Edited October 12, 2017 by Demon Jack 19 Quote
Dee Zephyr 19,311 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Demon Jack said: First official image of Lever in the red and blue! How nice of us to pack him an MFC polo for his trip to Europe. 4 Quote
Whispering_Jack 31,365 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 I'm going to leave it to you all to argue the toss about whether we paid overs or unders. It's not relevant to me because we have finally secured a highly credentialled player who we were interested in getting some three to four years ago and who is going to fit perfectly into our line up. That's what trading and drafting is all about. In the meantime, I'm going to re-read The Draftees: How Five Boys Made it to the AFL National Draft The book's blurb "Meet Jake Lever, Peter Wright, Isaac Heeney, Tom Lamb and Clem Smith. In 2015, they played their first game. In years to come, they could become stars. But first they had to be drafted to a club." 5 Quote
Axis of Bob 11,944 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 1 hour ago, ProDee said: I'm one who likes the deal, but also likes draft picks, as I recognise the value if you get them right. I just think the timing was right for this deal. We've stockpiled elite talent over the last 4-5 years and now is the time to back the list for a genuine assault up the ladder. Fully agree. We haven't been in this position for a while, but now is the time to use good picks to get guaranteed value in important positions. More kids doesn't help us much anymore. If we picked Lever at pick 4 with 3 years of development, then we'd be very excited. 7 Quote
BAMF 4,479 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 4 hours ago, Bonkers said: We got a second rounder back. Pick 35 was the Cows second rounder this year. Thanks! the live feed I saw didnt have this.(or I missed it somehow) Super happy now. 1 Quote
Lil_red_fire_engine 11,383 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 7 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said: Lever would want to be good for us. Huge gamble. How is this a huge gamble? At worst you get the existing output of a 21 year old elite intercept defender as already seen. At best you get the expected incremental improvement of a 21 year old 196cm defender over his next 4 years of development into what should be his peak. Skys the limit. Anyone that thinks we paid overs over rates the draft. Even so I suspect we will use 27 and 35 to get back into the top 20 some how. Those that say let him walk to the draft, North have deep pockets and I suspect would have snapped him up before us. Similar to the Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong models, pick your targets, be open with what you think is fair, get your player and move on. 2 Quote
Dr. Gonzo 24,468 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 1 hour ago, ProDee said: I'm one who likes the deal, but also likes draft picks, as I recognise the value if you get them right. I just think the timing was right for this deal. We've stockpiled elite talent over the last 4-5 years and now is the time to back the list for a genuine assault up the ladder. My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's). But if the strategy pays off with a flag or 3 over the next decade I'm sure I'll live with it 3 Quote
Gator 18,053 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said: My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's). But if the strategy pays off with a flag or 3 over the next decade I'm sure I'll live with it We may well trade back in. 2 Quote
The Stigga 1,097 Posted October 12, 2017 Posted October 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said: My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's). But if the strategy pays off with a flag or 3 over the next decade I'm sure I'll live with it Who's to say we wont have a first round this year and next year? Quote
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