3 hours ago, DubDee said:

round 1 really does get blown completely out of proportion. 6 months of build up...

id happily lose once we win the next 5

just one game of 22. if anything, the results in round 1 tend to be unusual/upsets as it is a frantic pace and the top teams can be off top gear

 

*****really hope we win but

Couldn't agree more

The only thing I'll add is i don't care whos in thr team as long as we're winning. No player in theory should be automatic best 22. Games need to be earned. Players not performing dropped etc...

I dont think we cant win rd 1, i just dont think we will. Happy to be proven wrong

 

4 hours ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Calm down fellas, Think more like 1 goal better side. We averaged 13.10 (88) last year going up by 4 goals a game (assuming similar accuracy) would take us to an unheard average of around 17.14 (118). Hell do that and we would be near unbeatable. A 2 goal better side takes you into a premiership caliber offence, we arnt there yet.

I'm not sure that being a four-goal-better side necessarily equates to kicking four extra goals per match.

5 step plan to beat the Saints:

1. Shut down Riewoldt
Bernie Vince is the man for the job. He goes up a gear when tagging and as an experienced midfielder he'll know how to hurt him the other way. We have to direct play through Vince if Riewoldt goes and sits behind the ball. Also we have to physically beat in to him - Bugg, Viney, Jones the men for this job - whenever he's around congestion. Tom McDonald takes the job if he goes forward and the other defenders shuffle over.

2. Pressure their defenders
Roberton and Savage are quality ball users when given time and space but if pressured properly they can go to water. Brown, Carlisle, Gilbert/Dempster won't hurt us as much. Geary has killed Garlett repeatedly so if Jeffy plays he has to fired up. Maybe he can be sent to follow Savage to try and get ahead of the curve. Alternatively he could try and drag Geary away from the play and someone like Petracca could aim to get Savage deep in an uncomfortable match up.

3. Tempo footy
We have to share the ball across half back at Etihad and wait for options or be prepared to kick to a ruckman down the line when required. Lewis, Jones, hopefully Hibberd, Salem - the better ball users have to be involved in getting the ball at half back, moving it around and then pulling the trigger on the corridor kick. The long kicks to the rucks just weren't working against the Eagles, so they need to make sure Gawn +/- Spencer are positioned correctly to attack the get out kick.

4. Isolate Hogan
Carlisle and Brown give the saints far better key defenders than they've had before but Hogan can get either one of the one on one. He seems to like Etihad and the saints so get the ball to him

5. Stop their kick outs
The Saints are one of the best at kicking the ball in after a behind. Often it's to Josh Bruce who runs a defender out of the zone and marks 60m out then they aggressively kick to players running to a spot on the wing. We have to study their plans and be aware of them. 

7 hours ago, Dante said:

Neither can I, they are around the same mark as us and if we are still frightened to play at Etihad then we should just give it away.

We have improvement in us and players like Jones, Vince and Lewis will be much better when there are four points on the line. Dyson will improve on the JLT3 game and with another run will be ready to go. Milkshake was good early in JLT3 but faded a bit, he will be better next time up. 

We were ordinary in JLT3 but nearly stole it in the last and could have if Hogan had kicked straight.  We coasted against Carlton and had the doggies covered all day in the previous JLT games. It seems as if a majority are happy to concede this game and hope for the return bout win, that's not an option, we have to stop this run of losses against them and now is the time to do it.

Our backs will have to perform better, that's a given but if we can win the centre clearances and get the ball to our forwards quicker that will put pressure on their backs, we also have to keep it in there and not allow a quick rebound.

I'm not prepared to concede this match and I think we will win by a small margin. 

I went to both games at Etihad last year. I said to myself the second time, I want to see if they learned anything from the first encounter (the one where Lynden Dunn had his papers marked). The answer is they learnt nothing and we were beaten exactly the same way. The most frustrating experience of last year.

I will hazard a guess we will get done the same way. I hope not but can see it working out that way.

8 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

Not only that, but Membrey gets can absolute truck load of goals by just hanging out the back.  He can take a mark, but when he kicks a bag it's thanks to the pressure up the ground that allows him to get uncontested marks out the back of the zone.

Membrey is ranked 38th in the league for contested marks in 2016. It puts him ahead of Harry Taylor, Weitering, Rance, Goldstein, Watts etc. Not too shabby.

26 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I went to both games at Etihad last year. I said to myself the second time, I want to see if they learned anything from the first encounter (the one where Lynden Dunn had his papers marked). The answer is they learnt nothing and we were beaten exactly the same way. The most frustrating experience of last year.

I will hazard a guess we will get done the same way. I hope not but can see it working out that way.

Bookmark this, I agree

10 hours ago, hemingway said:

Positive about the season but not this game.

The Saints and that poor excuse of a ground just has a bad feel about it.

I am not sure about the Saints, but our line-up is unsettled. The practice matches have not helped us that much in determining our line-up in either our forward or defensive zones. And we may well select a few guys who are underdone for match time. The thought of playing underdone blokes like Jetta, Hibberd, Garlett, or Kent does not inspire confidence but there again the alternative selections have also not given cause for confidence

Its going to take time to sort out our best 22. 

True but we seem to have quite a few options this year.

26 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Membrey is ranked 38th in the league for contested marks in 2016. It puts him ahead of Harry Taylor, Weitering, Rance, Goldstein, Watts etc. Not too shabby.

As I said, the bloke can take a mark.  No doubt about it, but he does get plenty out the back as well.  His contested marking stat doesn't change that fact.

Both T.Mac and Viney have said on SEN today they think Spencer will play round 1

45 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I went to both games at Etihad last year. I said to myself the second time, I want to see if they learned anything from the first encounter (the one where Lynden Dunn had his papers marked). The answer is they learnt nothing and we were beaten exactly the same way. The most frustrating experience of last year.

I will hazard a guess we will get done the same way. I hope not but can see it working out that way.

Me too Jnrmac it was like watching ground hog day. We had learnt nothing, I saw designated saints waiting on their opposite back flank alone just waiting for the enivetable turn over and switch across to these unmarked runners to just take off while our guys where congregated in a forward press on the other side of the ground. That was the second game. In the first game we just stood around watching Reiwelt run rampant from deep half back to half forward and deliver it to any number of forwards, take your pick. Max was somewhat negated and our midfield just broke even if I remember, we got off to good starts but lost our way. I thought we were out coached both times. 

I thought last year we played into their hands both times and we got cocky and over confident both times and then panicked when they got a run on both times.

Hoping it changes in 2017.

From memory the last few times we played them, they ran us off our legs and killed us on the rebound with a much smaller team with guys like Sinclair and Lonie. I think we also went very tall with Frost, Pederson, Hogan and Watts in the forward line.

 

This time they will be playing a lot taller, with Gilbert, Brown, Carlisle and Dempster down back and Reiwoldt (even though he plays wing), Bruce, McCartin and Membrey up forward, while we will probably just go with the McDonald brothers down back, and Watts, Hogan and Spencer up forward 

No excuses if this happens again

 

 

1 hour ago, DemonAndrew said:

I thought last year we played into their hands both times and we got cocky and over confident both times and then panicked when they got a run on both times.

Hoping it changes in 2017.

If we're gonna play Spencer, it means we've already played into their hands.

We have to ensure Gwilt is held accountable off half-back as well.

9 minutes ago, Akum said:

If we're gonna play Spencer, it means we've already played into their hands.

I agree. This isn't a JLT game, we're now playing a player down as far as I'm concerned. 

Edited March 16, 20178 yr by Ethan Tremblay

2 hours ago, Skuit said:

We have to ensure Gwilt is held accountable off half-back as well.

Can't tell if serious ?

3 hours ago, Radar Detector said:

Can't tell if serious ?

It's usually safe to assume not.

 

But the coaching staff aren't subject to our MFCSS scars. And I get the sense they're not sitting around fixated on coming up with a special plan to counter the past horrors of someone with a name like Maverick making us his inflatable pool-pony.

My guess: we go in with the exact same game-plan as we did in both encounters last year. And we win or lose based on our level of development and execution.   

It seems our losing streak against St Kilda isn't the only hoodoo going around: 
 

Quote

Jordan Lewis: has never managed to poll against the Saints, who his Demons will come up against in a much hyped round 1 clash

https://www.reddit.com/r/AFL/comments/5zub8p/gotta_poll_against_them_all_who_will_be_the_first/

Edited March 17, 20178 yr by DominatrixTyson

19 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

I wonder how much of our Ethiad voo doo is in the mind.

That said perhaps being round one, the media and players may be focused on other things than our incredible losing streak at this ground.

If it continues this year it spells disaster given we play there four times this season.

Playing Saints round one at Ethiad is a perfect opportunity to jump them and break both their winning streak against us and our crazy voo doo. Will we go 2 ruck?

Really!

You wonder.

Sorry deever but it is obviously not in the mind it is the North South orientation upsetting our equilibrium, not to mention being west of King St. 

11 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Really!

You wonder.

Sorry deever but it is obviously not in the mind it is the North South orientation upsetting our equilibrium, not to mention being west of King St. 

There could be something in this .... Bermuda triangle or Sargasso sea effect perhaps

Of course we could tweak the little GPS units the players wear so they think they are going the other way.... or perhaps invite Rudi whateverhisnamewas to address the players

14 hours ago, DemonLad5 said:

From memory the last few times we played them, they ran us off our legs and killed us on the rebound with a much smaller team with guys like Sinclair and Lonie. I think we also went very tall with Frost, Pederson, Hogan and Watts in the forward line.

 

 

Spot on

Same happened against WCE, Carlton and Bummers in 2016 as well. We won the ball and then had a bad habit of turning it over allowing those team to counter attack on the break and score. The teams who pressure for turnovers and rebound killed us in 2016. If they allow us to run and gun we win.

As we saw against WCE in the JLT the turnovers haven't just magically disappeared out of our game. I don't think there is a Plan B nor do I expect there to be one (wihat i mean is we should make moves in game but the coaches won't substantially change the game plan)

We'll beat the Saints if we can execute, if we can start executing consistently we are in for a big year.

Like I've said previously though I don't think we will elminate the turnovers overnight. It takes years of games in to the kids and experience. I think we are still a little young and in experienced. Soft excuse I know but it should be a fun ride in 2017.

Edited March 17, 20178 yr by Unleash Hell

About 50/50 in the media with regards to our chances in round 1:
http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2017-03-17/what-the-journos-think-about-melbourne

1 hour ago, hardtack said:

About 50/50 in the media with regards to our chances in round 1:
http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2017-03-17/what-the-journos-think-about-melbourne

4 of 21 think we won't make the eight. The rest do. Unless I got my figures wrong there...

If Spencer spends more time in the ruck than Gawn, that would mean we have moved our AA ruckman to the forward line to accommodate our C+ pure ruck.

This may sound a bit MFCSS but that is so Melbourne...