#PedersenFacts

[Whispering_Jack 30,018]

There's an article on the Box Hill v Casey game by Paul Amy of the Leader Newspapers ~ Box Hill Hawks farewell Iles, Casey Scorpions say hello to finals which might provide us with a clue to the Pedersen omission for the Carlton game.

Amy discusses the long list of MFC players available for the Scorpions' finals campaign and then says, 

"But the Scorpions will have to do their premiership bidding without Cam Pedersen, who was among their best against Box Hill, his former club.

"He slotted three goals — one after taking a ripper mark, another after converting from a tight shot in front of the terraces — but he played with a shoulder injury and will go in for surgery, an indication that he’s in Melbourne’s plans for 2017."

The suspect shoulder may well be the reason that he wasn't played in those two final games.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

51 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

There's an article on the Box Hill v Casey game by Paul Amy of the Leader Newspapers ~ Box Hill Hawks farewell Iles, Casey Scorpions say hello to finals which might provide us with a clue to the Pedersen omission for the Carlton game.

Amy discusses the long list of MFC players available for the Scorpions' finals campaign and then says, 

"But the Scorpions will have to do their premiership bidding without Cam Pedersen, who was among their best against Box Hill, his former club.

"He slotted three goals — one after taking a ripper mark, another after converting from a tight shot in front of the terraces — but he played with a shoulder injury and will go in for surgery, an indication that he’s in Melbourne’s plans for 2017."

The suspect shoulder may well be the reason that he wasn't played in those two final games.

Surely he is just as likely to worsen a wounded shoulder in the VFL as he is in the AFL?

And even then if they were willing to risk him in the normal season surely the finals are more worthy of a risk? Why send him out for an op now?

I think Pedo will be at the club bext year and like him but this seems to have been handled strangely.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

	Win %	Score	Scoring Shots	Inside 50's	Inside 50 Score %	Inside 50 Goal %
With Oliver (13)	53.8%	93.4	24.2	53.2	41.3%	25.8%
Without Oliver (9)	33.3%	81.1	22.2	54.6	36.3%	21.8%
With Pedersen and Oliver (7)	71.4%	99.3	25.0	54.1	42.4%	27.3%
Without Pedersen and Oliver (7)	28.6%	72.1	21.4	54.3	34.9%	19.0%

[pitchfork 181]

42 minutes ago, Wrecker45 said:

Surely he is just as likely to worsen a wounded shoulder in the VFL as he is in the AFL?

And even then if they were willing to risk him in the normal season surely the finals are more worthy of a risk? Why send him out for an op now?

I think Pedo will be at the club bext year and like him but this seems to have been handled strangely.

Because it's VFL finals...The only importance they hold are in development for AFL.

 

3 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

	Win %	Score	Scoring Shots	Inside 50's	Inside 50 Score %	Inside 50 Goal %
With Oliver (13)	53.8%	93.4	24.2	53.2	41.3%	25.8%
Without Oliver (9)	33.3%	81.1	22.2	54.6	36.3%	21.8%
With Pedersen and Oliver (7)	71.4%	99.3	25.0	54.1	42.4%	27.3%
Without Pedersen and Oliver (7)	28.6%	72.1	21.4	54.3	34.9%	19.0%

sure, but it can mean anything unless there's some standardisation of the data. 

Melbourne v Geelong

2015: Win

2016: Loss

Melbourne 2015 > Melbourne 2016 team

Likewise, you'd be silly to say "the Demons with Nathan Jones are a horrendous team...just look at the years 2007 to 2016"

Edited August 28, 2016 by pitchfork

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

2 minutes ago, pitchfork said:

sure, but it can mean anything unless there's some standardisation of the data.

I'm just giving people the facts, interpret them as you wish.

[Dante 2,739]

19 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

	Win %	Score	Scoring Shots	Inside 50's	Inside 50 Score %	Inside 50 Goal %
With Oliver (13)	53.8%	93.4	24.2	53.2	41.3%	25.8%
Without Oliver (9)	33.3%	81.1	22.2	54.6	36.3%	21.8%
With Pedersen and Oliver (7)	71.4%	99.3	25.0	54.1	42.4%	27.3%
Without Pedersen and Oliver (7)	28.6%	72.1	21.4	54.3	34.9%	19.0%

It will be interesting to see how these figures pan out next year, we will hopefully win more games and Clarry and Pedo will play more games together. 

[loges 6,767]

Lets face it Stuie, where Pedersons concerned other people can see things that you obviously can't. A lot of other people

[stuie 7,374]

8 minutes ago, loges said:

Lets face it Stuie, where Pedersons concerned other people can see things that you obviously can't. A lot of other people

Yeah, like how to spell his name....

As I've already said, repeatedly, he was ok this year and I expect him to be around next year.

But giving him this much sole credit for wins is just a bit silly, if only Roosy had picked him every week, we'd be top 4 hey!

 

[ickey_11 145]

2 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

There's an article on the Box Hill v Casey game by Paul Amy of the Leader Newspapers ~ Box Hill Hawks farewell Iles, Casey Scorpions say hello to finals which might provide us with a clue to the Pedersen omission for the Carlton game.

Amy discusses the long list of MFC players available for the Scorpions' finals campaign and then says, 

"But the Scorpions will have to do their premiership bidding without Cam Pedersen, who was among their best against Box Hill, his former club.

"He slotted three goals — one after taking a ripper mark, another after converting from a tight shot in front of the terraces — but he played with a shoulder injury and will go in for surgery, an indication that he’s in Melbourne’s plans for 2017."

The suspect shoulder may well be the reason that he wasn't played in those two final games.

I think Pedersen was left out the last two games to give game time to Weiderman.

[stuie 7,374]

1 hour ago, Wrecker45 said:

Surely he is just as likely to worsen a wounded shoulder in the VFL as he is in the AFL?

And even then if they were willing to risk him in the normal season surely the finals are more worthy of a risk? Why send him out for an op now?

I think Pedo will be at the club bext year and like him but this seems to have been handled strangely.

Maybe he injured the shoulder during the game?

 

[loges 6,767]

51 minutes ago, stuie said:

Yeah, like how to spell his name....

As I've already said, repeatedly, he was ok this year and I expect him to be around next year.

But giving him this much sole credit for wins is just a bit silly, if only Roosy had picked him every week, we'd be top 4 hey!

 

Congratulations on your spelling. Nobody has claimed he's a champion just a handy footballer

[dieter 3,325]

I watched the Box Hill Casey game. Pederson, as were all the Demon players, was committed and involved. And in the final quarter - they were behind at three quarter time - he, along with Kennedy and Michie, stood up. Pederson's goal from the boundary was sensational, as were a couple of his marks. I'd play him before Weidemann at the moment any day...

[Tony Tea 2,809]

15 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

Nice work although I must agree with RTG who argues we need a better nickname for the guy.

Since he loves a big grab: The Pedoflier.

[Moonshadow 17,676]

17 minutes ago, loges said:

Congratulations on your spelling. Nobody has claimed he's a champion just a handy footballer

No way! I'm claiming him as a champion, perhaps only second to Wayne Carey as a key forward. 

[stuie 7,374]

28 minutes ago, loges said:

Congratulations on your spelling. Nobody has claimed he's a champion just a handy footballer

Maybe read the OP again, apparently he's the main reason for us winning games.

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

4 minutes ago, stuie said:

Maybe read the OP again, apparently he's the main reason for us winning games.

 

I have never come across anyone in my life who misinterprets and jumps to conclusions like you do, it's a gift.

[Moonshadow 17,676]

4 minutes ago, stuie said:

Maybe read the OP again, apparently he's the main reason for us winning games.

 

Pure hyperbole. Exactly where in the OP is it claimed that Pedo is the main reason for us winning games? 

[stuie 7,374]

5 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

I have never come across anyone in my life who misinterprets and jumps to conclusions like you do, it's a gift.

 

Please tell me what the point in posting stats about how many games we've won with and without Pedersen was then?

Edit - Removed quoted post of my stalker.

 

Edited August 29, 2016 by stuie

[Moonshadow 17,676]

3 minutes ago, stuie said:

 

Please tell me what the point in posting stats about how many games we've won with and without Pedersen was then?

Edit - Removed quoted post of my stalker.

 

Maybe he's pointing out the value Pedo has to the team. Positive thinking, you know....

Seems like a far more likely point than "apparently he's the main reason for us winning games"

PS. Good to see you're reading my posts again Stu.

[Ethan Tremblay 30,856]

So many yellow lines across my screen. I can only guess Stuie is in fine form. His horse just keeps growing. 

[Wrecker45 3,378]

3 hours ago, pitchfork said:

Because it's VFL finals...The only importance they hold are in development for AFL.

What i was trying to say was if he wasn't right to play why didn't we send him off for an operation in the first place?

Why play him twice in the VFL, where he is just as likely to get injured, then send him off for an operation?

[stuie 7,374]

53 minutes ago, Wrecker45 said:

What i was trying to say was if he wasn't right to play why didn't we send him off for an operation in the first place?

Why play him twice in the VFL, where he is just as likely to get injured, then send him off for an operation?

Maybe he did his shoulder during the game?

 

[demon-4-life 467]

Just because I needed to point out how silly these stats are:

2015:

With Pedersen - 1 win 7 losses 14%
Without Pedersen - 6 wins 15 losses 40%

There are just too many variables that impact a game.  Which ground, the temperature, the weather, the OPPOSITION, the # of days break, travel factor, injuries players bring in to games, injuries during the game, umpiring decisions.  

I like the thought process, I just think it's a little too simplistic.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

22 minutes ago, demon-4-life said:

There are just too many variables that impact a game.  Which ground, the temperature, the weather, the OPPOSITION, the # of days break, travel factor, injuries players bring in to games, injuries during the game, umpiring decisions. 

In the games with Pedersen, on average those opposition teams conceded 90.1 points per game across the season.  In the games without Pedersen those opposition teams conceded 86.8 points per game across the season.

Yes, in the games without Pedersen the opposition was better (which backs up my "expected" to win analysis), however it's less than one goal difference on average.

Edited August 29, 2016 by Clint Bizkit

[Dante 2,739]

All stats, expectations, possibilities and maybes aside, Pedders played reasonably well in the games he was in, he isn't going to be a world beater but he's serviceable.

There are players in every side that the supporters question and they get a game, usually, because the coaching panel can see something in them that the supporters can't. He performs a role that the club want him too and if he ceases to perform that role they will move him on.