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MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 22

Demonland
Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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6 hours ago, jackaub said:

So it may be difficult conditions for us to kick a major margin improving score? Hmmmmm not good news

Flipside, it will be easier for us to prevent them from scoring which is another way to boost percentage.  

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    22 hours ago, Die Hard Demon said:

    is anyone else worried about rain playing a part in keeping Carlton in this game? 

    Nope. We've been very good in the wet this year (Hawthorn, Port games come to mind). We've mastered the art of getting it forward at all costs a la the Hawks. If it's wet we will smash them even harder.

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    being wet on sunday looks problematic

    have checked 4 different weather services and they all differ greatly on rain, but all seem to roughly agree on temp, wind and cloud cover.

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    Just now, daisycutter said:

    being wet on sunday looks problematic

    have checked 4 different weather services and they all differ greatly on rain, but all seem to roughly agree on temp, wind and cloud cover.

    Well that's very helpful dc.

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    Just now, Bitter but optimistic said:

    Well that's very helpful dc.

    you're very welcome, uncle

    btotom line is  i think there will be no rain, or very light rain showers of little consequence

    you being a country squire you should have a better "feel" for weather. what is your (or the lads) prediction?

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    3 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

    you're very welcome, uncle

    btotom line is  i think there will be no rain, or very light rain showers of little consequence

    you being a country squire you should have a better "feel" for weather. what is your (or the lads) prediction?

    Is the roof open or closed?

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    5 hours ago, Chris said:

    Not great in the last report. Sounds like he is tired and struggling to run out the season. 

    Have to remember, it's only his first season, and he didn't have a full pre-season to prepare. Should have a better run at it next year, but with Melksham and Salem back in contention, will have to fight for his spot.

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    Int; Oliver, Michie, Weideman, Neal-Bullen

    Em; Garland, Pedersen, Harmes Michie,

    Neal-Bullen, Weideman in for Garlett, Pedersen, Harmes

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    Gutsy changes, obviously looking to the future, keeping the pressure on the players, and rewarding players who work when they're at Casey.

    Bummer for Trengove and JKH that they didn't get a look in, but those included have earned it.

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    Really dumb changes. Why mess with a winning side? The forward line works better with Pedersen there. Good luck to Sam, but I don't think he offers as much as Pedo presently.

    I can't believe that Michie and Neal-Bullen are the next in line given their senior efforts so far this year. Play one maybe, but two is asking for trouble. Would much prefer Salem.

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    4 minutes ago, poita said:

    Really dumb changes. Why mess with a winning side? The forward line works better with Pedersen there. Good luck to Sam, but I don't think he offers as much as Pedo presently.

    I can't believe that Michie and Neal-Bullen are the next in line given their senior efforts so far this year. Play one maybe, but two is asking for trouble. Would much prefer Salem.

    Michie is a real surprise. I don't think he is up to it.

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    Yeah I would've preferred any of Kennedy, Matt Jones, Salem or Trengove than the two mids that have come in but I don't see them at training or most of the games in the 2's...

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    9 minutes ago, bing181 said:

    Gutsy changes, obviously looking to the future, keeping the pressure on the players, and rewarding players who work when they're at Casey.

    Bummer for Trengove and JKH that they didn't get a look in, but those included have earned it.

    I like it. Form and future. Looks strong. 

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    hmm, thats a lot of inside mids.  A real lot.  

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    9 minutes ago, poita said:

    Really dumb changes. Why mess with a winning side? The forward line works better with Pedersen there. Good luck to Sam, but I don't think he offers as much as Pedo presently.

    I can't believe that Michie and Neal-Bullen are the next in line given their senior efforts so far this year. Play one maybe, but two is asking for trouble. Would much prefer Salem.

    Perhaps the club is looking more to the long term and figuring a small change won't make much difference to the 6% chance we have of making the finals.

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    4 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

    hmm, thats a lot of inside mids.  A real lot.  

    Nibler usually bags a few. 

     

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    11 minutes ago, Demi Dee said:

    Nibler usually bags a few. 

     

    Since when?

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    Michie is a surprise - not sure he can maintain AFL standard football across 4 quarters. I would have probably included Trenners over Michie but Michie has been very good in the VFL.  The Weideman inclusion is a huge statement from selectors about their preferences and direction. 

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    How much (if any) say does Goodwin have?

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    22 hours ago, bing181 said:

    I'd go Mitchie for Harmes. But then I'm probably not seeing what the coaches are seeing.

    Disappointed Salem isn't included, feel that we need that kicking accuracy, but perhaps it's a step too far for him at this stage of coming back.

    Also, was wondering whether Trengove mightn't get another look in, he seems do be doing increasingly well at Casey. But probably needs a solid pre-season before that'll happen.

    I don't generally like to bag our players, but Mitchie is a spud at AFL level and a waste of a supplementry list spot.  In the numerous chances he has been given to play at AFL level, I haven't seen him play a half decent game yet.

    Whilst I don't think champion data points always tell the full story, they do give a fair indication.  Mitchie's highest AFL score this year is only just above what Harmes achieved last round on an off game.  Mitchie's best score is lower than Jack Grimes lowest for the year.  I don't ever recall seeing Mitchie do anything impactful at AFL level, yet players like Harmes and Grimes regularly put their bodies on the line and create pivotal moments in matches.  Harmes games against Gold Coast and Hawthorn were excellent IMHO.

    I would have named a slightly underdone Salem as an emergency over Mitchie any day and it bemuses me that the match committee didn't go that way.

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    49 minutes ago, poita said:

    Really dumb changes. Why mess with a winning side? The forward line works better with Pedersen there. Good luck to Sam, but I don't think he offers as much as Pedo presently.

    I can't believe that Michie and Neal-Bullen are the next in line given their senior efforts so far this year. Play one maybe, but two is asking for trouble. Would much prefer Salem.

    Let's wait for the outcome before saying dumb. Weid looked OK in his first game, Hoges may not come up so PEDs is back in. 

    ANB and Michie have been killing it for weeks on end. Last chance saloon for Viv you'd think over next few weeks, conditions to suit him this week. 

    Salem is still under done.

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    Reckon Pedo is stiff.

    It's possible that its because I haven't seen anything other than the highlights though.

    Did he do something wrong, or are we just keen to see more of Weeds?

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    The cupboard must be bare at Carlton - one change to the team that lost to Brissie, while we change three from a 40 point win in Adelaide over Port...

    :unsure:

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    Is it not possible that players like Mitchie are being given a game to help work out whether they are worth keeping on next year.  Once again, assuming his selection won't make a big difference to the 6% chance of being in the finals.

    BTW, I think 6% is about right.  While our chance of beating Carlton should be better than 50:50, our chance of beating Geelong is less, so that means we have a 1 in 4 chance of beating both.    And I'd but the same probability on North losing twice because there are so many difficult factors.   1/4*1/4=1/16 => 6%

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