4 hours ago, Copuchas said:

If you want a laugh, read this thread chronologically from the get-go!!  

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/are-we-going-to-make-the-finals.1141090/

Thanks for posting this. Very revealing. I must say having read a few bomber blitzes and collywobbles sites from time to time, these on the NM sites were almost civilised. Many though cannot believe they are in a competition with MELBOURNE (who they all refer disparagingly to as GoDees), which given our record against them over the last ten years or so. Is not surprising. 

34 minutes ago, Dees2014 said:

(who they all refer disparagingly to as GoDees)

We have no problem being their God.

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

if you multiply out all the probabilities 6% is about right.

Remember for us to get in 4 events have to go the right way... even if they were all a 50% probability the chance of all four events going that way is 1in 8 or around 13%.

This is correct. 

Probabilities multiply.

So assuming we are at $1.30 to beat Carlton, Sydney is $1.30 to beat North, we are $4.50 to beat geelong and GWS is $1.80 to beat north we are looking at odds of about $13.70 for us to make finals. That indicates about 6.5% probability. 

 

If you can better odds than that take it!

 

45 minutes ago, deanox said:

This is correct. 

Probabilities multiply.

So assuming we are at $1.30 to beat Carlton, Sydney is $1.30 to beat North, we are $4.50 to beat geelong and GWS is $1.80 to beat north we are looking at odds of about $13.70 for us to make finals. That indicates about 6.5% probability. 

 

If you can better odds than that take it!

 

Oh my childhood maths...... my earlier post was slightly wrong... and I am completely sober !!

the odds if we are at 50% chance of winning each game are of course 1in 16 (so around 6%)

Whatever it is a long shot when you put it that way

If you were to say we were a 90% shot to beat Carlton and a 50% shot to beat Geeelong (well it is dream time)

Swans and GWS are both an 80 % chance to beat North

Then the probability moves up to 30% which still is not mind blowingly great

8 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Both Martin Blake and Barrett are Nought Supporters

any wonder they would spew such crap?

Oh yes and Noughts form of 3-8 (soon to be 3-10) is real solid September form

if we make it, We make it and Nought don't

Simple. 

Think you might find Martin Blake is a one eyed Saints man.

23 minutes ago, trout said:

Think you might find Martin Blake is a one eyed Saints man.

Well then that also makes sense. He will have seen his team beat us twice, yet look at the ladder jealously and think why isn't it my team.

14 minutes ago, AdamFphlebeb said:

Well then that also makes sense. He will have seen his team beat us twice, yet look at the ladder jealously and think why isn't it my team.

He has been having a argument with Terry Wallace all year on SEN. He thinks the Saints are in front of us while TW thinks we are in front of them. God I wish we had beaten them this year. 

15 minutes ago, trout said:

He has been having a argument with Terry Wallace all year on SEN. He thinks the Saints are in front of us while TW thinks we are in front of them. God I wish we had beaten them this year. 

Explains why I've never heard of Martin Blake. He's on SEN...

47 minutes ago, trout said:

Think you might find Martin Blake is a one eyed Saints man.

Really? Ok i have heard him speak often and he always seemed to talk about North as if he supported them...

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Oh my childhood maths...... my earlier post was slightly wrong... and I am completely sober !!

the odds if we are at 50% chance of winning each game are of course 1in 16 (so around 6%)

Whatever it is a long shot when you put it that way

If you were to say we were a 90% shot to beat Carlton and a 50% shot to beat Geeelong (well it is dream time)

Swans and GWS are both an 80 % chance to beat North

Then the probability moves up to 30% which still is not mind blowingly great

If we had a 30% probability of making the finals every year over the past 10 years, we would have made the finals over 3 times. I'd greatly prefer those odds to the ones we've actually experienced.

Still get the feeling North will put everything into their last game (can't see them beating Sydney) and get up against the Giants. It doesn't help that we play first in round 23 and if we get up against the Cats, North will know their season all comes down to one game.

But if Leicester can win the premier league, anything is possible.

28 minutes ago, mikeydemon said:

Still get the feeling North will put everything into their last game (can't see them beating Sydney) and get up against the Giants. It doesn't help that we play first in round 23 and if we get up against the Cats, North will know their season all comes down to one game.

But if Leicester can win the premier league, anything is possible.

The great thing is that if all results go our way leading up to that match, the giants have as much of an incentive as north do... they have a top 4 spot up for grabs (they'll have a better percentage than geelong so all they'll need to do is win v north)

I'm not worried about north or percentage. If we win both games we're in.

9 hours ago, mikeydemon said:

Still get the feeling North will put everything into their last game (can't see them beating Sydney) and get up against the Giants. It doesn't help that we play first in round 23 and if we get up against the Cats, North will know their season all comes down to one game.

But if Leicester can win the premier league, anything is possible.

If we get up against the Cats the Giants will also be playing for a top 4 spot so they'll have almost as much riding on the game as North.

 

EDIT: Assuming results go our way this weekend - don't want to get ahead of myself

14 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If we get up against the Cats the Giants will also be playing for a top 4 spot so they'll have almost as much riding on the game as North.

 

EDIT: Assuming results go our way this weekend - don't want to get ahead of myself

I am not interested in analysing all the different permutations and combinations. All I wish is to see the boys go out and win their next six matches on the trot!

5 hours ago, CBDees said:

I am not interested in analysing all the different permutations and combinations. All I wish is to see the boys go out and win their next six matches on the trot!

Yes. At worst that puts us 4-0 to start next season.

6 hours ago, CBDees said:

I am not interested in analysing all the different permutations and combinations. All I wish is to see the boys go out and win their next six matches on the trot!

Let's just hope the players and staff have some kind of awareness of the permutations because a few more goals against Carlton and Geelong could give us the percentage required to overtake the Kangas, if SYD & GWS barely scrape over the line.

I don't want to have to barrack for GWS to win by over 30 points and for them to not really give a [censored] about that margin.

If I was GWS and I couldn't make the top 4, Would i put my foot down on the Kangas so I could play the Dees? Or would i just win by a slim enough margin to ensure I could play the Kangas again?

Permutations Galore!

Gibson somehow broke his nose by dropping a weight. 

7 minutes ago, olisik said:

Gibson somehow broke his nose by dropping a weight. 

cast iron will do that 

12 minutes ago, olisik said:

Gibson somehow broke his nose by dropping a weight. 

Told Scott that they need 13 wins to make finals??

On 8/17/2016 at 0:38 PM, Bay Riffin said:

disagree. we were 50/50 to win that, just like how we took the points against Gold coast.

The real travesty is the Weagles game, when the umpires right royally stuffed us by playing a host of frees to the losing side in West Coast in the last quarter, enabling them to kick a vital goal in the last to just pip us. We were definitely the best side that day.

Reminds me of the North game. How many goals from frees was it again, 7 I think. At least 4 of them were very questionable. 

1 hour ago, olisik said:

Gibson somehow broke his nose by dropping a weight. 

Thanks, Sandra Sully.

2 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Thanks, Sandra Sully.

No worries little smart ass

If we get there... If... then I'll worry about it.

 

Right now qwe need 4 games to go our way. Not just wins but margins. Right now we are picking tattslotto numbers and spanding the money before the draw.

 

All that said: I'm proud of the boys to be in the mix so late in the season. It's so nice not to know or care who is in the top 5 of the draft, and better to see the kids we have and have faith in them.

 

Whatever happens this year we all know next should and will be better

My final 8 as of end of rd 23 next week. Remembering I called Port to be challenging for the flag and we all know how close I was there.

SWANS

CROWS

HAWKS

GIANTS

CATS

EAGLES

DOGS

DEMONS