I'd be interested in peoples' views on our prospects, given our current list and coaching staff, compared with other teams in the competition. Not prospects for winning games or even making the finals, but prospects for winning the next flag. That is, in comparing us with each other club, ask just one question: who is closer to winning the flag? I think that sometimes the answer to this question puts us ahead of some sides who are currently better than we are (ie most clubs) but have less scope for improvement. These sides might need to go through a phase of renewing their list before they could be genuine contenders.

So going through last year's ladder from the top, I'd rather be Melbourne than:

Essendon (too many important players are too old)

Richmond (can't see the current list winning a flag. Too many deficiencies to be able to 'top up' to contend in the near future)

Carlton (mixture of Essendon and Richmond's problems)

Brisbane (only because we have Hogan. Their midfield looks better than ours)

St Kilda (among other reasons, Hogan might be here for our next flag, Riewoldt will not)

I hesitated about a few other clubs, paricularly North and the Bulldogs. In the end though I think they can each lay a claim to being closer than we are (Boyd is critical for the Dogs). This year we may be a better side than GWS, but I think they've got greater potential over the medium-long term. I have also assumed that key players will stay where they are (eg Dangerfield)

Possibly also the Pies and the Dogs.

We seem more stable in terms of our coaching staff and team morale.

Find it amazing that I'm even typing this.

Thank you PJ and Paul Roos.

.................Fitzroy or the Melbourne Hawks.

Possibly also the Pies and the Dogs.

We seem more stable in terms of our coaching staff and team morale.

Find it amazing that I'm even typing this.

Thank you PJ and Paul Roos.

Agree Ron, but it's like life....it is fragile so handle with care.

I'd be interested in peoples' views on our prospects, given our current list and coaching staff, compared with other teams in the competition. Not prospects for winning games or even making the finals, but prospects for winning the next flag. That is, in comparing us with each other club, ask just one question: who is closer to winning the flag? I think that sometimes the answer to this question puts us ahead of some sides who are currently better than we are (ie most clubs) but have less scope for improvement. These sides might need to go through a phase of renewing their list before they could be genuine contenders.

So going through last year's ladder from the top, I'd rather be Melbourne than:

Essendon (too many important players are too old)

Richmond (can't see the current list winning a flag. Too many deficiencies to be able to 'top up' to contend in the near future)

Carlton (mixture of Essendon and Richmond's problems)

Brisbane (only because we have Hogan. Their midfield looks better than ours)

St Kilda (among other reasons, Hogan might be here for our next flag, Riewoldt will not)

I hesitated about a few other clubs, paricularly North and the Bulldogs. In the end though I think they can each lay a claim to being closer than we are (Boyd is critical for the Dogs). This year we may be a better side than GWS, but I think they've got greater potential over the medium-long term. I have also assumed that key players will stay where they are (eg Dangerfield)

Needa

Re - Jesse Hogan

I was listening to SEN this morning and heard Andy Maher throw in a mischievous question to Russell Robertson, supposedly supplied off the SMS by a Dees supporter: Robbo have you heard the rumour that Freo are all over Hogan and have offered a $1 million a year for 7 years? Robbo genuinely sounded like it was news to him.

After the Boyd contract nothing is impossible I suppose but I thought Hogan had extended his contract a year to compensate for last year's problems.

A tough question

Hmmm

... anyone else because we know who our senior coach will be for the next 5 seasons.

Needa

Re - Jesse Hogan

I was listening to SEN this morning and heard Andy Maher throw in a mischievous question to Russell Robertson, supposedly supplied off the SMS by a Dees supporter: Robbo have you heard the rumour that Freo are all over Hogan and have offered a $1 million a year for 7 years? Robbo genuinely sounded like it was news to him.

After the Boyd contract nothing is impossible I suppose but I thought Hogan had extended his contract a year to compensate for last year's problems.

I heard that as well - It was the rumour doing the rounds around the time he re-signed. I'd suggest Maher was speaking out of his pooper - it's not often they throw out unsubstantiated rumours from unknown texters

I heard that as well - It was the rumour doing the rounds around the time he re-signed. I'd suggest Maher was speaking out of his pooper - it's not often they throw out unsubstantiated rumours from unknown texters

Honestly Andy Maher would not know a tram was up him till the conny rang the bell.

Hogan re-signed until the end of 2017 so let's lose our minds over something else...

I'd rather be us right now than either Essendon or St Kilda.

Essendon: Obviously the stink of everything that's going on. Hird may take it another step and drag it out even longer. Either way they have been branded with something that they will not be able to get rid of for a very long time.

St Kilda: Something about them just makes them seem pathetic. I don't think they'll have any hope of being in top 8/flag contention for a long time and they just don't seem to have anything to hold on to that makes them an appealing club. When Riewoldt retires they will be back to square one. But who knows, they might have another forward gem with their no 1 pick.

A tough question

Hmmm

Dead? Maybe. Yeah Nah .

I'd rather be us right now than either Essendon or St Kilda.

Essendon: Obviously the stink of everything that's going on. Hird may take it another step and drag it out even longer. Either way they have been branded with something that they will not be able to get rid of for a very long time.

St Kilda: Something about them just makes them seem pathetic. I don't think they'll have any hope of being in top 8/flag contention for a long time and they just don't seem to have anything to hold on to that makes them an appealing club. When Riewoldt retires they will be back to square one. But who knows, they might have another forward gem with their no 1 pick.

Pates you make a good point about the potential ongoing influence of the doping saga on Essendon. I hadn't factored that in, and was barely convincing myself that we are closer to a flag than the Bombers. The key question is: as guys like Heppell, Hurley, Zaharakis and Daniher are peaking as players, what, if anything, will they be getting out of Watson, Goddard, Cooney (and Stanton)? I'm assuming Fletcher and Chapman will be gone.

I'd be interested in peoples' views on our prospects, given our current list and coaching staff, compared with other teams in the competition. Not prospects for winning games or even making the finals, but prospects for winning the next flag. That is, in comparing us with each other club, ask just one question: who is closer to winning the flag? I think that sometimes the answer to this question puts us ahead of some sides who are currently better than we are (ie most clubs) but have less scope for improvement. These sides might need to go through a phase of renewing their list before they could be genuine contenders.

So going through last year's ladder from the top, I'd rather be Melbourne than:

Essendon (too many important players are too old)

Richmond (can't see the current list winning a flag. Too many deficiencies to be able to 'top up' to contend in the near future)

Carlton (mixture of Essendon and Richmond's problems)

Brisbane (only because we have Hogan. Their midfield looks better than ours)

St Kilda (among other reasons, Hogan might be here for our next flag, Riewoldt will not)

I hesitated about a few other clubs, paricularly North and the Bulldogs. In the end though I think they can each lay a claim to being closer than we are (Boyd is critical for the Dogs). This year we may be a better side than GWS, but I think they've got greater potential over the medium-long term. I have also assumed that key players will stay where they are (eg Dangerfield)

I'd rather be us than essendon, the dogs, richmond, the saints, freo, north, carlton...

All of them have massive problems with their lists. We have just one problem: no genuine elite players. Tyson might get there. Hogan might get there. But no-one is there yet and without them we will not win anything.

It all comes down to development now and I think our group is well-focused on that.

I'd rather be Melbourne than anyone else, fk the rest. We have a good young list that should get us our next flag, and it will happen. Patience.

Pates you make a good point about the potential ongoing influence of the doping saga on Essendon. I hadn't factored that in, and was barely convincing myself that we are closer to a flag than the Bombers. The key question is: as guys like Heppell, Hurley, Zaharakis and Daniher are peaking as players, what, if anything, will they be getting out of Watson, Goddard, Cooney (and Stanton)? I'm assuming Fletcher and Chapman will be gone.

Fletcher may well discover some other "magic substance" that allows him a few more years :-(

Though with age, bones get brittle. The next time he sticks his foot out to trip an opponent, it could behis own leg that breaks. A bit of what you sow you reap, like Lloyd doing a major hammie making a dive :-)

Fletcher may well discover some other "magic substance" that allows him a few more years :-(

Though with age, bones get brittle. The next time he sticks his foot out to trip an opponent, it could behis own leg that breaks. A bit of what you sow you reap, like Lloyd doing a major hammie making a dive :-)

I would love to see Dirty Dustin end his career by injuring himself with a characteristic, albeit miscalculated, snipe. The last surviving thug of the Sheedy era.

I'd rather be us than essendon, the dogs, richmond, the saints, freo, north, carlton...

All of them have massive problems with their lists. We have just one problem: no genuine elite players. Tyson might get there. Hogan might get there. But no-one is there yet and without them we will not win anything.

It all comes down to development now and I think our group is well-focused on that.

Good post. The question for is for me is how many of our B graders, with great coaches and first class leadership, will step up to A graders.

These are the ones I think have the potential, and then whether they will or not in the next 5 years:

Petracca - yes

Brayshaw - yes

Viney - yes

Gawn - yes

Hogan - yes

Toumpas - no

Watts - yes

Tyson - yes

Grimes - no

JKH - no

Jones - yes

Vince - no

Lumumba - no

Garland - no

Stretch - yes

Trengove - yes

Howe - no

Salem - yes

That's enough to make us a contender in the next 5 years. Whether it is enough to win a premiership is another matter.

Honestly Andy Maher would not know a tram was up him till the conny rang the bell.

..... and the passengers started getting off.

Good post. The question for is for me is how many of our B graders, with great coaches and first class leadership, will step up to A graders.

These are the ones I think have the potential, and then whether they will or not in the next 5 years:

Petracca - yes

Brayshaw - yes

Viney - yes

Gawn - yes

Hogan - yes

Toumpas - no

Watts - yes

Tyson - yes

Grimes - no

JKH - no

Jones - yes

Vince - no

Lumumba - no

Garland - no

Stretch - yes

Trengove - yes

Howe - no

Salem - yes

That's enough to make us a contender in the next 5 years. Whether it is enough to win a premiership is another matter.

Bernie Vince no potential? Could you elaborate on this one please?

I'm very sorry but some posts in this thread are overly optimistic for where we are at the moment. We shouldn't concentrate on potential but rather who are proven AFL footballers. At the moment we are lucky to have seven of those (Jones, Tyson, Lumumba, Garland, Jamar, Gartlett and Vince). That's why we've won so few games. If that changes well and good, but don't fall for the: we've-got-potential-so-everything's-gonna-be-fine mentality. We've been doing that for far too long and it's only leads to prolonged frustration.

Let you know in June

Bernie Vince no potential? Could you elaborate on this one please?

Certainly I am not saying Bernie Vince has no potential. What I was trying to do here is look at our list and to try and identify which players have the potential over the next 3-5 years to turn themselves into A graders. One of the accusations leveled at the MFC is they have some good players, but no Agraders and the one thing we need to go deep into the finals is to find some Agraders. Given our high proportion of high draft picks I thought it was logical to identify, given our A grade coaching staff assembled by Paul Roos, which of our current players have that potential. Bernie I think is 28, he is a terrific player, but no one says he is an Agrader, and given his age I think it is unlikely he ever will be. The others on the list I identify with that potential ( with the exception of Nathan Jones who I reckon already is an Agrader) are all in their early 20s and given the right guidance and coaching I beiieve have the potential to become Agraders.

If all that happens, we will be consistently deep into the finals.

A failed heroin importer in an Indonesian gaol awaiting clemency?

I'd rather be Melbourne then Rick Grimes and his merry crew. He is unemployed, doesn't shave and eats dog on the side of the road.