THE ROAD TO ROUND 1, 2015

[deanox 10,057]

Really pleased with the side.

In some respects it's very sad to say, but most of us are happy that Grimes, Bail, M Jones and McKenzie aren't in the side. Slowly but surely we are beginning to develop a list that doesn't require those sorts of players to plug holes or be players they're not.

It's all just names on paper at the moment though. We've still got three debutants plus a bunch of unproven players. But it's a much more exciting thought to see this 22 and think about what might happen.

Whatever happens, cannot wait for the game!

I don't think Dawes can come in for Frost, in this side Frost has to be the second ruckman and there's no way we use Dawes in that role after what happened at Collingwood wit him. No point playing Hogan in the ruck, that's robbing Peter to pay Paul (and we wouldn't really be paying Paul anyway as Hogan's no use in the ruck).

I suppose Dawes moves into the forward line, Frost either stays or plays in the back line and rucks from there (which isn't ideal, but will have to do).

With Frosts mobility and pace could he be trained to play as a tall mid who moves into the ruck when needed, the traditional ruck rover?

[Nasher 33,617]

You watch how many mis matches Watts will create....I just hope our midfield look up and pass him the bloody ball!

I was thinking a few times in the PS games that a few of the new players had obviously not been told the "don't kick it to Watts no matter what" instruction like last year's midfield seemed to have given themselves. I watch on TV so it's not always the easiest to be able to tell, but it seemed to me that he got ignored by his teammates a lot in years gone by.

[#11-TonyAnderson 864]

For those who have been baying for the non-selection of Spencer, Grimes, Bail, M.Jones, Terlich and McKenzie - your wish has been granted. Let's hope the new team puts on a terrific display and that we finally win a round 1 game.

[deanox 10,057]

I was thinking a few times in the PS games that a few of the new players had obviously not been told the "don't kick it to Watts no matter what" instruction like last year's midfield seemed to have given themselves. I watch on TV so it's not always the easiest to be able to tell, but it seemed to me that he got ignored by his teammates a lot in years gone by.

Nash I sit being the goals, level 2, punt Road end every week so see the play opening up on a very different way than is shown on tv.

What I will tell you is you are 100% correct.

The number of times in his 6 years Watts has found himself 30+m clear of anyone forward of the ball, often hands in the air, sometimes jumping and waving, while folk scream "kick to Watts" only for the player to never look near him has been painful.

I reckon maybe 40+ Watts shot on goal opportunities missed in that time easily.

I've gotten on here or read media reports where he had be bagged for having no impact or playing outside and having a poor game and then think back to the day before and often there has been 2-5 instances where he has worked free and just been ignored.

If people start seeing the big blonde guy and kicking to him we might start doing better at times.

[Bossdog 2,002]

Wow......If you don't get selected in the 1st game you should be traded???

I know some posters have their whipping boys but come on...A lot of good footballers have been dropped in their careers and have come back

Most players on our list will play this year, due to injury and form.

I hope they all have a good year.

It's only the first game in a long long season

[What 18,810]

man just thinking how all I (and most of us I assume) have seen of Angus are the few minutes of highlight reels at draft time

This will literally be the first time seeing him play properly

[bananas 428]

One of the things I really like about this team is that 5/6 of the players named in the forward line have good foot skills and smart footy brains. If any of Watts, Garlett, Hogan, Kent or (okay, I'm being generous here) Toumpas get the ball between 50 and 70 metres out, they're going to be a pretty good chance to actually hit a target inside fifty. (And you could add JKH to that list as well, who'll be down there for the majority of the game, and who has a real knack for finding a teammate in space.)

Very pleased we've gone for a smaller, more mobile, and *smarter* forward line. Hopefully it works!

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

It's a good group of players, but given the number playing their first game or second season in the jumper, I'll be very agreeably surprised if they click as a team in the first half of the season.

[Demonland 73,875]

I've posted The Oracle's updated match preview.

THE WRITING ON THE WALL by The Oracle

...

OFF THE WALL

The reality is that it will be the best team that wins this game and for Melbourne, I suspect that we have seen in the selection of its team a pointer to the area of its likely improvement over its abysmal record of recent years.

One half of the selected 22 were yet to play an AFL game for the Demons when Paul Roos arrived at the club 18 months ago. Seven are making their debut with the club in Saturday's game while four others - Dom Tyson (GWS Giants), Daniel Cross (Western Bulldogs) and draftees Christian Salem and Jay Kennedy-Harris came to the club last year.

The Demons worked hard at improving the defensive aspect of their game in 2014 and appear to be settled in this area of the ground. There was also an improvement in the midfield which has again been bolstered by the recruiters. Lumumba and Newton have been named on the wings and it will be interesting to see which of them takes his place as the first Demon to line up on the newly named Robbie Flower Wing. It's hard to believe that the Prince was just a toddler when Robbie last graced this ground with his magical presence: Newton wasn't even born.

We all know that Melbourne's 2015 nemesis was its attack where it averaged a little under an appalling 61 points per game, more than 50 points behind the premiers, Hawthorn. This is the area where team selection is indicating significant change. Hogan and Frost are the two new key position players, Garlett the pacy crumber with two partners in crime in Kent and Kennedy-Harris and more outsiders in Watts and Toumpas. The overall picture is an almost complete transition from the one-paced predictability of last year's forward line which was blamed for the team's penchant for slow sideways movement into attack. With these players up forward, there is less reason for the players further downfield not to show the enterprise necessary to take the game on when the opportunities present.

This is of course, placing great responsibility on the inexperienced shoulders of Frost and Hogan but these two have already shown glimpses of their physical attributes as athletes. Hogan makes his long-awaited debut, delayed by nearly a year because of injury interruptions but he has already shown that he has the strength, endurance and skills to make the wait worthwhile. Frost has pace to burn and I expect his combination with the three crumbing amigos will make for interesting viewing for Demon fans for a while to come. I'm excited!

What reinforces my view is the fact that there are a few who would once have been considered regulars who missed selection for various reasons. If it's true that the strength of a team is measured by its depth then this is indicative of a great leap forward and suggests we are about to witness a significant improvement in all round skills at Melbourne. I'm even more excited!

But what about the Suns? They're expected to give the finals a shake and, after all, they are the firm favourite to win but I'm going against the grain. They certainly have been gifted with a talented bunch of players but when their lynchpin is one whose shoulder hasn't been tested in the field of battle, it's a worry. He might be superhuman and he will probably touch the ball thirty times but if the Demons stick to the task and put the right amount of pressure on the man, they can nullify his influence and knock the favourites off the wall.

Melbourne by 10 points.

You can read the full version here.

[Gator 18,018]

So perhaps it's not 'groupthink' that relegates Grimes, Bail, and Matt Jones to the lower level. If we are to ever raise standards these are the types of players that need to be no more than gap-fillers. Brayshaw is ready, and, more importantly, he'll make us better. Not tomorrow, but by midseason we'll start reaping the benefits of having genuine talent running around.

I won't be shocked if we win tomorrow and think it will be a close game. At the 'G' and with the team that's named, I'm expecting a win. Many of the Suns players are underdone and they're without their 2 best key forwards. They're also still coming to grips with a new coach and game-plan. Facts are they're still a young team. They have the second youngest side in the competition behind GWS and the third least experienced. They have only 5 players with over 100 games on the list, although they all play tomorrow.

As far as the teams lining up:

Melbourne's average age ~ 23.73 and average games played ~ 71.41 (7 x 100+ game players)

Gold Coast's average age ~ 23.14 and average games played ~ 69.91 (5 x 100+ game players)

The numbers are remarkably similar. Next week with the likely inclusions of Vince and Dawes we'll only see this experience strengthened.

Much depends on Ablett. If he wasn't playing I'd be very confident. Unlike Howe, he comes into the game not only without a preseason game behind him, but without collision contact at training. I'll be shocked if he has a blinder. If his influence is quelled I'll be surprised if we don't have a victory. The Suns have a very solid backline, but their forwardline smacks of ordinary.

[What 18,810]

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/2015-04-02/jeff-garlett-on-debut

[Hulett Packard III 166]

Some great previews above and I agree that team selection was excellent, omitting players whose skills are NQR and constantly leave us lamenting.

I haven't felt so confident about a season opener for two years ... oh, wait.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

2) Ablett will see a lot of time forward

Big day for Nev then, possibly match-deciding duel

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

The only area of the field that I look at and cross my fingers is the forwards. Hogan first game and Frost named at FF and possibly fillin ruck. Garrett and Watts could be our main avenues to a score. What I do like about the forward set up is that it is very mobile and quick and that could be an advantage as long as the kids feed it.

That's exactly how I feel - I just want to see that they (coaches) had a plan that they tried to execute to kick a winning score. Too many times last year we just wasted inside50s with seemingly no plan whatsoever on how we were supposed to convert them to goals. I wish Dawes was in.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Anywhere to watch the game down somewhere near Wilsons prom

I'd give these lads a call to confirm they show fox footy

http://www.fishcreekhotel.com.au/index.php/contact-us

[Slartibartfast 18,040]

Unlike most this is not the team I would have picked.

I struggle with the concept of a player who hasn't played any sort of game or practice match being picked ahead of someone who has played in all three NAB cup games, an intra club game and any number of match simulations during the preseason. For all that people go on here Grimes is not a bad footballer, most conceding that his last two practice games were good. I don't like the decision itself and the message it sends.

Let's hope that Grimes is the last victim of the Neeld years and let's hope Jack can fight back. I really feel for him, right or wrong it's an awful thing to happen.

I'm also struggling with the idea that Brayshaw gets in ahead of M Jones when he wasn't deemed good enough to get a gig in any of the NAB Cup games and Jones did ok in that series. And I'm surprised that Vandenberg gets a gig. I like him but I don't think he's ready and I think come Saturday night others will agree with me.

I'm surprised with this team because it seems to me to be picked for the future. It doesn't seem to me to be the best team to win on Saturday and I didn't think that was the Roos way.

The caveat of course is that the FD knows more than anyone here and is in an infinitely better position to make calls. Lets hope they have it right.

[picket fence 18,068]

For those who have been baying for the non-selection of Spencer, Grimes, Bail, M.Jones, Terlich and McKenzie - your wish has been granted. Let's hope the new team puts on a terrific display and that we finally win a round 1 game.

Agree also defining game for Jimmy Toumpas. I would play Howe Forward, Swing Cross to Half back and play Brayshaw in the pivot minute 1 game 1 and see what he has got!

J K H to sub

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

So perhaps it's not 'groupthink' that relegates Grimes, Bail, and Matt Jones to the lower level. If we are to ever raise standards these are the types of players that need to be no more than gap-fillers. Brayshaw is ready, and, more importantly, he'll make us better. Not tomorrow, but by midseason we'll start reaping the benefits of having genuine talent running around.

I won't be shocked if we win tomorrow and think it will be a close game. At the 'G' and with the team that's named, I'm expecting a win. Many of the Suns players are underdone and they're without their 2 best key forwards. They're also still coming to grips with a new coach and game-plan. Facts are they're still a young team. They have the second youngest side in the competition behind GWS and the third least experienced. They have only 5 players with over 100 games on the list, although they all play tomorrow.

As far as the teams lining up:

Melbourne's average age ~ 23.73 and average games played ~ 71.41 (7 x 100+ game players)

Gold Coast's average age ~ 23.14 and average games played ~ 69.91 (5 x 100+ game players)

The numbers are remarkably similar. Next week with the likely inclusions of Vince and Dawes we'll only see this experience strengthened.

Much depends on Ablett. If he wasn't playing I'd be very confident. Unlike Howe, he comes into the game not only without a preseason game behind him, but without collision contact at training. I'll be shocked if he has a blinder. If his influence is quelled I'll be surprised if we don't have a victory. The Suns have a very solid backline, but their forwardline smacks of ordinary.

Thanks for this - I was going to ask if anyone had the stat.. did you do it manually or source it somewhere? I know you can get it on footywire but only after the game

Interestingly our 71 games is actually +6 from our average last year. I guess Lumumba+Garlett-Frawley is the difference?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I'm surprised with this team because it seems to me to be picked for the future. It doesn't seem to me to be the best team to win on Saturday and I didn't think that was the Roos way.

The caveat of course is that the FD knows more than anyone here and is in an infinitely better position to make calls. Lets hope they have it right.

I argued this during the week, with particular regard to Brayshaw.. honestly I am right on the fence with this one, the stats say that the less experience you have out there the more games you lose, simple as that. However - Bail, Grimes, M.Jones and McKenzie for Brayshaw, JKH, Vandenburg and Toumpas - I don't think I could bring myself to make that swap if it were my decision. It would certainly boost our experience but does it count when you consider the quality of that experience? It's a tricky one, and one that can never really be answered.

PS

[Redleg 42,048]

Unlike most this is not the team I would have picked.

I struggle with the concept of a player who hasn't played any sort of game or practice match being picked ahead of someone who has played in all three NAB cup games, an intra club game and any number of match simulations during the preseason.

You wouldn't have picked Ablett then?

[Goodvibes 3,596]

Unlike most this is not the team I would have picked.

I struggle with the concept of a player who hasn't played any sort of game or practice match being picked ahead of someone who has played in all three NAB cup games, an intra club game and any number of match simulations during the preseason. For all that people go on here Grimes is not a bad footballer, most conceding that his last two practice games were good. I don't like the decision itself and the message it sends.

Let's hope that Grimes is the last victim of the Neeld years and let's hope Jack can fight back. I really feel for him, right or wrong it's an awful thing to happen.

I'm also struggling with the idea that Brayshaw gets in ahead of M Jones when he wasn't deemed good enough to get a gig in any of the NAB Cup games and Jones did ok in that series. And I'm surprised that Vandenberg gets a gig. I like him but I don't think he's ready and I think come Saturday night others will agree with me.

I'm surprised with this team because it seems to me to be picked for the future. It doesn't seem to me to be the best team to win on Saturday and I didn't think that was the Roos way.

The caveat of course is that the FD knows more than anyone here and is in an infinitely better position to make calls. Lets hope they have it right.

My head agrees with you. But my heart loves the team as named.

[Redleg 42,048]

For all that people go on here Grimes is not a bad footballer, most conceding that his last two practice games were good. I don't like the decision itself and the message it sends.

Let's hope that Grimes is the last victim of the Neeld years and let's hope Jack can fight back. I really feel for him, right or wrong it's an awful thing to happen.

I'm surprised with this team because it seems to me to be picked for the future. It doesn't seem to me to be the best team to win on Saturday and I didn't think that was the Roos way.

The caveat of course is that the FD knows more than anyone here and is in an infinitely better position to make calls. Lets hope they have it right.

Agree on Grimes. I think he has had a good pre season and is very unlucky. Hopefully he fights back. Knowing him, he will. He will still play good footy with us.

Agree it is a team for the future, other than maybe Cross and Jamar who is still our best ruck.

Clearly Roos is going to put his imprimatur on this team.

[rjay 25,355]

You wouldn't have picked Ablett then?

Love Jeremy but Ablett he is not.

I will be surprised if Howe lines up for the bounce this week.

[Redleg 42,048]

Love Jeremy but Ablett he is not.

I will be surprised if Howe lines up for the bounce this week.

I would play him forward.

[Slartibartfast 18,040]

Thanks for this - I was going to ask if anyone had the stat.. did you do it manually or source it somewhere?

Something similar was on the AFL site, but I don't know where ProDee got his info.

The one thing it doesn't measure is talent. A talented 40 gamer will always be better than an limited 80 gamer.