Geez, you are fired up old dee. Seems that rejuvenation of our list has rejuvenated your spirit as well. I think I can even detect a hint of optimism in a couple of your recent posts. Well done, and welcome back! (LOL)

Usually happier this time of the year Deeoldfart

It is around March I return to the real world and by June I opening the Single malt on a regular basis.

Last year I said we had the same basic cattle as 2011 and unfortunately I was correct.

At least this year we are changing some of the cattle.

I don't expect a lot from 2013

I have said elsewhere 6 genuine wins and no 10+ losses will make me happy.

Lets no kid ourselves we have along way to go.

no point in keeping Beamer. He wanted out before 2012 began.

Really?? My understanding is he was being courted by essendon late 2011 but elected to stay.

Edited October 17, 201213 yr by Daz's Dee's

Really?? My understanding is he was being courted by essendon late 2011 but elected to stay.

the deal didn't work out. But his heart was gone. Look at his onfield performance. It's obvious. Like 2 people still sharing a house after they have divorced.

The assumption you are making is that our recruitment is and always will be sub-par.

Pick 20 can be valuable and that is why we had to fork it over for a ready made 193cm 105kg FF.

I am all for the trade but don't tell me we didn't trade something of decent value.

An assumption maybe but it is based on history as per the last 10 years of players pick at 20 added with our own sub par drafting early.

Yes it is of value but only if you draft right and it is a bit of lotto isn't it?

An assumption maybe but it is based on history as per the last 10 years of players pick at 20 added with our own sub par drafting early.

Yes it is of value but only if you draft right and it is a bit of lotto isn't it?

In the past we would have been better off, most years anyway, trading all picks below 30 for some magic beans and only drafted players 30 and above, at least we wouldn't have got our hopes up. Now we've got a bargain basement of top picks for sale but no one wants to buy them, in fact we can't even give them away.

For those who expected we would be going all out to improve our midfield at all cost rather than yet more KPP's there is one very critical statistic that Neeld mentioned at season's end that seems to have fallen under the radar. Since round 11 we have broken even in inside 50's. This is a massive transformation. Probably the most significant improvement in the team's game since before Daniher left. So if that is already on the improve and we add in the mid's we are getting, we are going to need a Dawes more than any midfielder we could get at pick 20. In the context of the list and how the team is playing it looks like a bit of a no brainer. Even if we have clearly had to pay overs.

Not too sure how neeld calculates break-even inside 50's with the stats below however there are some very interesting observations.

We lost by over 70 points vs Adelaide yet broke even with inside 50's

Minus 4 vs Brisbane

Minus 20 vs Richmond

Minus 10 vs Fremantle

Plus 10 vs Port

Minus 25 vs north

Minus 2 vs GC

Even vs saints

Plus 15 vs gws

Even vs Adelaide

Minus 29 vs Fremantle

Not too sure how neeld calculates break-even inside 50's with the stats below however there are some very interesting observations.

We lost by over 70 points vs Adelaide yet broke even with inside 50's

Minus 4 vs Brisbane

Minus 20 vs Richmond

Minus 10 vs Fremantle

Plus 10 vs Port

Minus 25 vs north

Minus 2 vs GC

Even vs saints

Plus 15 vs gws

Even vs Adelaide

Minus 29 vs Fremantle

You have to give or take a few.

its good to hear that Neeld is going to play Dawes as solely a KPF and not move him into the ruck like he was this year., It obviously didn't work this year under Buckley and KPF was where he was kicking 30+ goals a year under Malthouse. Given that he is more experienced now we can expect probably more than that under Neeld.

Edited October 17, 201213 yr by young dee enthusiast

^^huh? I thought we were agreeing.

Just genuinely interested as to people's feelings on what the ruck division will look like in 2013 with the list as it stands (ie no Gumby or Pedersen), assuming that all are healthy.

I think most of us thought that Dawes would ruck in some capacity, and I was surprised that appears to have been completely ruled out. Clark can ruck, but yeah, you don't want him to if at all possible since he's so dangerous up forward (and, as I said, they might want to take a softly softly approach to his injury).

That to me seems to indicate that another player (Gawn, Spencer, Martin) will need to come in to take secondary ruck duties. Thankfully all three are tall or reasonably athletic i.e. suited to the new rules.

Personally I never thought we'd look to Dawes as a ruck option. Think we have a lot more capable ruck options on our list already.

As for 2013, if we were to miss out on Pedersen and Martin stayed I still reckon he would have been struggling for a game in 2013.

I reckon it would have been looking as:

Melbourne 22: Jamar 1st ruck, Fitzpatrick 2nd ruck/forward pocket.

Casey 18: Gawn 1st ruck, Martin 2nd ruck/forward pocket

Casey Bench: Spencer

Others capable of playing in the ruck: Micth Clark (Melb FF), Sellar (Casey CHB)

Not too sure how neeld calculates break-even inside 50's with the stats below however there are some very interesting observations.

Hmmm! Would love to hear Neeld's explanation of those results as being even. Maybe the difference is so small compared to the bollocking we got in the first half of the season that he calls it even. I'd love it to be true, we've got to have something to hang on to.

Personally I never thought we'd look to Dawes as a ruck option. Think we have a lot more capable ruck options on our list already.

As for 2013, if we were to miss out on Pedersen and Martin stayed I still reckon he would have been struggling for a game in 2013.

I reckon it would have been looking as:

Melbourne 22: Jamar 1st ruck, Fitzpatrick 2nd ruck/forward pocket.

Casey 18: Gawn 1st ruck, Martin 2nd ruck/forward pocket

Casey Bench: Spencer

Others capable of playing in the ruck: Micth Clark (Melb FF), Sellar (Casey CHB)

Fitz is not ready from what I have seen. It will be Martin or Pedersen or possibly Clark if he is keen to get in there.

I wouldn't have entertained the thought of Clark in the ruck but with Dawes and Hogan the forward line can cope without him.

In three years time I assume that Clark will do the back up ruck duties to Jamar/Spencer/Gawn/Whomever and Dawes and Hogan will be permanent fwds.

Just feel uneasy about Dawes, I'm not sure why. I hope we haven't tipped the balance too far from recruiting and building from within to recruiting senior players and giving away first round picks in a good draft.

I'm placing some faith in Neeld knowing the player he is getting but...

Any word on Dawes knee injury from the finals??

Did he have surgery? Or was it simply a strain??

Haven't seen anything written about it.....

Any word on Dawes knee injury from the finals??

Did he have surgery? Or was it simply a strain??

Haven't seen anything written about it.....

I brought this up a little while ago and apparently it was just a strain, he was seen running laps freely the week after.

Just feel uneasy about Dawes, I'm not sure why. I hope we haven't tipped the balance too far from recruiting and building from within to recruiting senior players and giving away first round picks in a good draft.

I'm placing some faith in Neeld knowing the player he is getting but...

He's 24.

FF for 6+ years.

He's 24.

FF for 6+ years.

Yep, can't explain it; probably unfounded concern.

Yep, can't explain it; probably unfounded concern.

How about putting it this way:

If you got a FF that played there for 6 years at Pick 20 in the draft would that be a good selection?

Oh, and you don't have to wait or develop him...

Any word on Dawes knee injury from the finals??

Did he have surgery? Or was it simply a strain??

Haven't seen anything written about it.....

Neeld said they checked out his knee and everything is good to go.

How good is Dawes? Certainly looks to be a brute! 24 perfect age.

The last 10 years of 20th draft picks

2002 will minson

2003 Sam butler

2004 dean polo

2005 Paul bower

2006 Tom hislop

2007 Tony notte

2008 Tom swift

2009 Nathan fyfe

2010 jaydon pitt

2011 haydon crozier

Except for fyfe Dawes has the other 9 players easily covered.

Great pickup for Melbourne.

Someone just rang up afl trade radio and read that arguement out to wallace who had said we'd paid overs for dawes.. (maybe the caller was a demonland member?!)

totally rolled wallace, he ummed and ahhed and then said fair point. said picks 21 and 22 out of those drafts might be better than dawes though.

How good is Dawes? Certainly looks to be a brute! 24 perfect age.

I remember Chris Dawes (Toppy as he was known) as an under 12 at the Hampton Rovers. I used to hand out the cut up oranges at half time. He was a solid boy then.

The trade with Collingwood seems fair given it is a compromised but fairly strong draft.

The key issue IMO is the 4 x $500K contract. I understand that the salary cap has to be spent, but Dawes will need to improve on last year significantly to justify that kind of money and length of contract. I wonder if the money could have been better spent.

It will also be interesting to see how a forward line of Clark, Dawes, Hogan and Howe (and maybe Pederson) can function. It also means that there will probably be no room for Fitzy etc.

The trade with Collingwood seems fair given it is a compromised but fairly strong draft.

The key issue IMO is the 4 x $500K contract. I understand that the salary cap has to be spent, but Dawes will need to improve on last year significantly to justify that kind of money and length of contract. I wonder if the money could have been better spent.

It will also be interesting to see how a forward line of Clark, Dawes, Hogan and Howe (and maybe Pederson) can function. It also means that there will probably be no room for Fitzy etc.

it's been said by harrington that the quoted contract for dawes is way off the mark

you should reserve judgement on that until you have better info than press speculation

The trade with Collingwood seems fair given it is a compromised but fairly strong draft.

The key issue IMO is the 4 x $500K contract. I understand that the salary cap has to be spent, but Dawes will need to improve on last year significantly to justify that kind of money and length of contract. I wonder if the money could have been better spent.

Tim Harrington flatly dismissed the figures about Dawes' salary that have been mentioned in the media.

you should reserve judgement on that until you have better info than press speculation

Bit harsh there - did someone wake up on the wrong side of the bed?

Wasnt like his 'judgement' was deeply offensive, outragiously wrong or that he was saying that the trade was a dud as a whole.

Just saying what we were all thinking - he will have to improve from last year, and raised a thought about the oppotunity cost of his salary