Toumpas v Stringer v Wines

[picket fence 17,181]

In this case, I don't think it's much of a lesson at all. Tounpas was playing and dominating senior footy as an 17/18 year old, and he never had any issues with toughness. This was much more than other draftees of his year were doing. It just seems to me a case of him not being able to step up to the highest level - how do you predict that?

How do you predict that???

That is what our recruiting team are paid big bucks to do and over the years they have failed dismally!!

No wonder we are so poor. Other clubs get it right so much more than us!

Why??

[Macca 17,013]

How do you predict that???

That is what our recruiting team are paid big bucks to do and over the years they have failed dismally!!

No wonder we are so poor. Other clubs get it right so much more than us!

Why??

Because they are luckier than us - it's that simple.

If X amount of top juniors are not going to make it, it's entirely possible to continue to pick these types. It's a bit like tossing a coin, heads could come up 8 times out of 10.

What is an absolute fact is that many top juniors fail to make it to genuine A grade status - the strike rate is astonishingly low but most haven't come to terms with how it all works. How big a sample size do people need?

In terms of actual output ... just an opinion of course ...

3 - Sylvia ... C

5 - McLean ... C+

4 - Morton ... E

1 - Watts ... B-

1 - Scully ... C

2 - Trengove ... E

4 - Toumpas ... D

3* - Hogan ... B- with a bullet

2 - Petracca ... ?

3 - Brayshaw ... C

3 - Tyson ... B-

Every single one of the above players was a top rated junior - with no exceptions. We could nearly include Viney as well and if we did, he'd only get a B- as well (so far)

Keep in mind that a number of the above can obviously improve and 1 or 2 may indeed achieve A grade status ... but it's still a sorry tale, all the same ... however, it's a tale that can be easily explained if one doesn't have a strong belief system when it comes to drafting. I've never bought in like many do

If one is to take a "macro" view, a similar tale ends up being told. I'm just left wondering why so many people here need to be continually disappointed before they finally realise it's a system problem rather than blaming seemingly incompetent recruiters. All the psyche, aptitude, beep tests and draft camp analysis won't change a thing either.

Many top juniors just can't cut it.

Your opinion of Toumpas may be correct but in my opinion, you're apportioning the blame in the wrong area.

[Sir Why You Little 37,053]

How do you predict that???

That is what our recruiting team are paid big bucks to do and over the years they have failed dismally!!

No wonder we are so poor. Other clubs get it right so much more than us!

Why??

You ask a kid the right questions during an interview you can find the attitude fairly quickly.

For many years the MFC has got this wrong far too often

[Adam The God 30,291]

In this case, I don't think it's much of a lesson at all. Tounpas was playing and dominating senior footy as an 17/18 year old, and he never had any issues with toughness. This was much more than other draftees of his year were doing. It just seems to me a case of him not being able to step up to the highest level - how do you predict that?

I place some importance on those first couple of AFL games he played, where he was playing in the undisputed worst football side in VFL/AFL history and was pummelled consistently. He had no leaders to look up to and we barely won. He had Mark Neeld for a coach and instability and meddling from the FD and admin. Some players like Jones can cut through all the crap and still become a good player. Other players simply can't. Toumpas may be alright at another club, but he needs a fresh start.

Edited August 29, 2015 by AdamFarr

[Sir Why You Little 37,053]

Because they are luckier than us - it's that simple.

If X amount of top juniors are not going to make it, it's entirely possible to continue to pick these types. It's a bit like tossing a coin, heads could come up 8 times out of 10.

What is an absolute fact is that many top juniors fail to make it to genuine A grade status - the strike rate is astonishingly low but most haven't come to terms with how it all works. How big a sample size do people need?

In terms of actual output ... just an opinion of course ...

3 - Sylvia ... C

5 - McLean ... C+

4 - Morton ... E

1 - Watts ... B-

1 - Scully ... C

2 - Trengove ... E

4 - Toumpas ... D

3* - Hogan ... B- with a bullet

2 - Petracca ... ?

3 - Brayshaw ... C

3 - Tyson ... B-

Every single one of the above players was a top rated junior - with no exceptions. We could nearly include Viney as well and if we did, he'd only get a B- as well (so far)

Keep in mind that a number of the above can obviously improve and 1 or 2 may indeed achieve A grade status ... but it's still a sorry tale, all the same ... however, it's a tale that can be easily explained if one doesn't have a strong belief system when it comes to drafting. I've never bought in like many do

If one is to take a "macro" view, a similar tale ends up being told. I'm just left wondering why so many people here need to be continually disappointed before they finally realise it's a system problem rather than blaming seemingly incompetent recruiters. All the psyche, aptitude, beep tests and draft camp analysis won't change a thing either.

Many top juniors just can't cut it.

Your opinion of Toumpas may be correct but in my opinion, you're apportioning the blame in the wrong area.

You continually say the Draft is all luck

That is a perfect MFC cop out

So many of our past Top Picks have shown nothing once in the senior side.

That to me says it is an MFC problem where the club has failed to capitalize on the system the entire competition uses.

[Macca 17,013]

You continually say the Draft is all luck

That is a perfect MFC cop out

So many of our past Top Picks have shown nothing once in the senior side.

That to me says it is an MFC problem where the club has failed to capitalize on the system the entire competition uses.

I never said it was all luck - get your facts straight

I'm surprised you're not screaming at me with your abbreviated swearing and use of capital letters with your insane anger - you wouldn't last 5 minutes at a local sporting club.

I have a scaled down version of your idiotic view on drafting. That's all.

You are clueless and you don't know what your talking about - most of all you lack experience ... that much is quite obvious.

But go ahead and blame the club, the recruiters, the player himself and prattle on about who else we should have picked with your twisted, stupid logic.

By the way, you were extremely happy when we picked Toumpas - explain that.

[Sir Why You Little 37,053]

I never said it was all luck - get your facts straight

I'm surprised you're not screaming at me with your abbreviated swearing and use of capital letters with your insane anger - you wouldn't last 5 minutes at a local sporting club.

I have a scaled down version of your idiotic view on drafting. That's all.

You are clueless and you don't know what your talking about - most of all you lack experience ... that much is quite obvious.

But go ahead and blame the club, the recruiters, the player himself and prattle on about who else we should have picked with your twisted, stupid logic.

By the way, you were extremely happy when we picked Toumpas - explain that.

You have continually said the drafting system is all about luck for at least 12 months. Huge essays on the subject

[McQueen 17,865]

In this case, I don't think it's much of a lesson at all. Tounpas was playing and dominating senior footy as an 17/18 year old, and he never had any issues with toughness. This was much more than other draftees of his year were doing. It just seems to me a case of him not being able to step up to the highest level - how do you predict that?

You ask a kid the right questions during an interview you can find the attitude fairly quickly.

For many years the MFC has got this wrong far too often

I place some importance on those first couple of AFL games he played, where he was playing in the undisputed worst football side in VFL/AFL history and was pummelled consistently. He had no leaders to look up to and we barely won. He had Mark Neeld for a coach and instability and meddling from the FD and admin. Some players like Jones can cut through all the crap and still become a good player. Other players simply can't. Toumpas may be alright at another club, but he needs a fresh start.

Jack Viney admitted to his own father that Toumpas was a better player than Wines. That's directly from a kid whom played against Toumpas! There's plenty of evidence that Toumpas was a pick 4 and if we passed on him he wouldn't have lasted much longer before getting snapped up.

I agree that during his early days the club was at its lowest ebb but other players have pulled thru that period such as Viney himself and have subsequently adapted to the AFL standard required to be able to cut the mustard.

Toumpas case is a difficult one and I reckon it's been VERY clear that Roos has placed so much emphasis on development given the amount and quality of coaches he's brought in to the club.

If Toumpas was drafted at > pick 40 then I'd be thinking we'd go looking for something to replace him with but, the fact remains he was a highly credentialed and skilled junior.

For once, can we please back our ability to develop this type of talent?

Edited August 29, 2015 by McQueen

[Macca 17,013]

You have continually said the drafting system is all about luck for at least 12 months. Huge essays on the subject

No I haven't - you're talking absolute rubbish.

Go back and read all my posts on drafting carefully. What you see is someone who has a "different" view and as usual, you've jumped to the wrong conclusions. Diifferent doesn't = an opposite view ... so, stop painting me that way.

I don't have an opposite view to those who have a strong belief system in the draft - it's a scaled down version.

I would urge the club to continue to pick top rated juniors with our top end draft picks - including this season if needs be. However, we might end up picking another top rated junior that doesn't cut it - that's the chance you take.

We could also trade those top end draft picks - that's entirely up to the club.

Of course it's not all about luck - there are many truths to drafting ... for instance, the top 10 picks will generally be better than the next 10 and so on and so forth. But there are far too many busts to call it a perfect system (as you do) And too many top players aren't chosen in the top 10. Every draft has similar outcomes.

One day you will see things clearly but only when you decide to stop venting in an indiscriminate way.

Lose the anger on this issue Wyl and come to terms with an imperfect system.

.

Edited August 29, 2015 by Macca

[Goodvibes 3,596]

Farren Ray might serve as an interesting comparison moving forward.

[Sir Why You Little 37,053]

No I haven't - you're talking absolute rubbish.

Go back and read all my posts on drafting carefully. What you see is someone who has a "different" view and as usual, you've jumped to the wrong conclusions. Diifferent doesn't = an opposite view ... so, stop painting me that way.

I don't have an opposite view to those who have a strong belief system in the draft - it's a scaled down version.

I would urge the club to continue to pick top rated juniors with our top end draft picks - including this season if needs be. However, we might end up picking another top rated junior that doesn't cut it - that's the chance you take.

We could also trade those top end draft picks - that's entirely up to the club.

Of course it's not all about luck - there are many truths to drafting ... for instance, the top 10 picks will generally be better than the next 10 and so on and so forth. But there are far too many busts to call it a perfect system (as you do) And too many top players aren't chosen in the top 10. Every draft has similar outcomes.

One day you will see things clearly but only when you decide to stop venting in an indiscriminate way.

Lose the anger on this issue Wyl and come to terms with an imperfect system.

.

Macca i could read umpteen of your essays concerning The draft system. You continually mention that

1. The System is Flawed

2. The word luck is frequently used

I disagree.

No need for the personal attacks thankyou

[Little Richard 6,265]

I place some importance on those first couple of AFL games he played, where he was playing in the undisputed worst football side in VFL/AFL history and was pummelled consistently. He had no leaders to look up to and we barely won. He had Mark Neeld for a coach and instability and meddling from the FD and admin. Some players like Jones can cut through all the crap and still become a good player. Other players simply can't. Toumpas may be alright at another club, but he needs a fresh start.

I agree with this to a point. But there was one of his first few games where he played outstandingly against Geelong on a wet day in Geelong. Just an outlier in terms of the rest of his development?

[Redleg 40,979]

You ask a kid the right questions during an interview you can find the attitude fairly quickly.

For many years the MFC has got this wrong far too often

Forget asking them questions, watch them play footy. It might help.

I am sure Cook, Toumpas, Gysberts, Morton etc got the answers right.

[Sir Why You Little 37,053]

Forget asking them questions, watch them play footy. It might help.

I am sure Cook, Toumpas, Gysberts, Morton etc got the answers right.

Because the questions and the type of player we sought was wrong.

Too many failures for it to be anything else

[Macca 17,013]

Macca i could read umpteen of your essays concerning The draft system. You continually mention that

1. The System is Flawed

2. The word luck is frequently used

I disagree.

No need for the personal attacks thankyou

So it's ok for you to scream at me previously with your use of caps and abbreviated swearing ... and cast aspersions my way with your blatant lies. You started the ball rolling Wyl so stiff cheddar if you get a bit back. If you want to dish it out, learn how to cop it.

The drafting system is flawed and there is some luck involved - there has to be in an imperfect system such as drafting. It's not all luck and I've never said it was all luck. Again, you have comprehension issues.

I'd compare drafting teenagers more to the "favourites" in horse racing ... the large majority of favourites don't win and many don't even run a place. Any punter is armed with that information and should accept the consequences accordingly.

Of course, many of us have known punters who like to moan and groan - those here who complain about top end draft picks that don't work out remind me of those "mug" punters. Complaining about it will get you absolutely nowhere - the outcomes are the outcomes.

Maybe a career awaits you in recruiting - you should give it a try as you seem to know all the answers. Me, I can't explain why a number of top juniors can't cut it - the reality is, no one can.

.

Edited August 29, 2015 by Macca

[dee-luded 2,959]

didnt realise we missed on stringer... way to make me even more down.

to think the possibilities of either Wines or Stringer, plus Viney is monumental. Hogan Stringer Viney would be sensational... large bodies strength & aggression.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Because they are luckier than us - it's that simple.

If X amount of top juniors are not going to make it, it's entirely possible to continue to pick these types. It's a bit like tossing a coin, heads could come up 8 times out of 10.

What is an absolute fact is that many top juniors fail to make it to genuine A grade status - the strike rate is astonishingly low but most haven't come to terms with how it all works. How big a sample size do people need?

In terms of actual output ... just an opinion of course ...

3 - Sylvia ... C

5 - McLean ... C+

4 - Morton ... E

1 - Watts ... B-

1 - Scully ... C

2 - Trengove ... E

4 - Toumpas ... D

3* - Hogan ... B- with a bullet

2 - Petracca ... ?

3 - Brayshaw ... C

3 - Tyson ... B-

Every single one of the above players was a top rated junior - with no exceptions. We could nearly include Viney as well and if we did, he'd only get a B- as well (so far)

Keep in mind that a number of the above can obviously improve and 1 or 2 may indeed achieve A grade status ... but it's still a sorry tale, all the same ... however, it's a tale that can be easily explained if one doesn't have a strong belief system when it comes to drafting. I've never bought in like many do

If one is to take a "macro" view, a similar tale ends up being told. I'm just left wondering why so many people here need to be continually disappointed before they finally realise it's a system problem rather than blaming seemingly incompetent recruiters. All the psyche, aptitude, beep tests and draft camp analysis won't change a thing either.

Many top juniors just can't cut it.

Your opinion of Toumpas may be correct but in my opinion, you're apportioning the blame in the wrong area.

It's obviously not poor recruiting choices, because every single one of those players was taken at the exact pick they were supposed to be taken at and would have been by every other club. Anyone who argues that point is a straight up moron IMO. You can't put it all down to bad luck either, there is too much of it.

The thing all those players have in common is that they were developed at this dog and pony show we pretend is an AFL footy club

[whatwhat say what 22,783]

Interesting comparison with Farren Ray. Since leaving to go to the Saints he's gone from much maligned top 5 pick to a classic good ordinary player who has played in excess of 200 games.

I think in terms of a 'fresh start' the best thing for Jimmy to do is go elsewhere.

For what it's worth, it was Ray and pick 48 (nick heyne) for pick 31 (Jordan Roughead).

[bing181 9,246]

Me, I can't explain why top juniors can't cut it - the reality is, no one can.

The million dollar question isn't so much why top juniors can't cut it, it's why junior players who aren't even rated at all end up winning Brownlows.

The draft: informed guesswork, but at the end of the day, still guesswork.

[dee-luded 2,959]

I don't think that in the current AFL system, and especially at our club, a midfielder can take so long to (at least) garner a regular spot in the 22. I held high hopes for Jimmy but the fact is that up until this point, he's been a bust.

Maybe he'll magically turn it around next season if he's still with us. But I have no reason to believe that he will, based on what he's shown so far.

this is only his 3rd season, he came in after both hips were operated on, but more-so he came into the club in the midst of turmoil, & the beginning of the clear-out. so he was introduced with the old weak culture still in force, & effecting him & others.

we know that young player under the old culture had issues developing. this kid is struggling with self belief, that isn't footy ability, but it hinders his ability to bring it to games.

If he was 23 yrs, I say goodbye... see ya later... he is just approaching 22 yrs. I would like to see him stay on with a 2 year extension. This club is about to take off next season & climb a few spots, & I would like to see him play in a more confident team. I think he can blossom with more work from McCartney & Allison, Goodwin, & Mathews, to see what they can bring out from within.

talent doesn't vanish, but confidence certainly stalls, so the output can get blocked.

[dee-luded 2,959]

In this case, I don't think it's much of a lesson at all. Tounpas was playing and dominating senior footy as an 17/18 year old, and he never had any issues with toughness. This was much more than other draftees of his year were doing. It just seems to me a case of him not being able to step up to the highest level - how do you predict that?

that sounds a bit simplistic Django, but it is possible that the game at U-18's is played in a more open fashion, & SANFL as well, but we are about to start to reduce the rotations/interchange, so any issues Re tempo of the game, it will slow down some.

now is not the time to sell low, with a player like a Toumpas.

he has talent, & we can find it in him. Confidence is a transient thing & once you find that self belief, it has a funny way of hanging about, because it follows the knowledge, of seeing that you Can.

[dee-luded 2,959]

Because they are luckier than us - it's that simple.

If X amount of top juniors are not going to make it, it's entirely possible to continue to pick these types. It's a bit like tossing a coin, heads could come up 8 times out of 10.

What is an absolute fact is that many top juniors fail to make it to genuine A grade status - the strike rate is astonishingly low but most haven't come to terms with how it all works. How big a sample size do people need?

In terms of actual output ... just an opinion of course ...

3 - Sylvia ... C

5 - McLean ... C+

4 - Morton ... E

1 - Watts ... B-

1 - Scully ... C

2 - Trengove ... E

4 - Toumpas ... D

3* - Hogan ... B- with a bullet

2 - Petracca ... ?

3 - Brayshaw ... C

3 - Tyson ... B-

Every single one of the above players was a top rated junior - with no exceptions. We could nearly include Viney as well and if we did, he'd only get a B- as well (so far)

Keep in mind that a number of the above can obviously improve and 1 or 2 may indeed achieve A grade status ... but it's still a sorry tale, all the same ... however, it's a tale that can be easily explained if one doesn't have a strong belief system when it comes to drafting. I've never bought in like many do

If one is to take a "macro" view, a similar tale ends up being told. I'm just left wondering why so many people here need to be continually disappointed before they finally realise it's a system problem rather than blaming seemingly incompetent recruiters. All the psyche, aptitude, beep tests and draft camp analysis won't change a thing either.

Many top juniors just can't cut it.

Your opinion of Toumpas may be correct but in my opinion, you're apportioning the blame in the wrong area.

kids do not develop well from within a weak cultured environment. all those boys were all talented we could see that but what you cannot see from the outside id how poor the learning environment within the club is/was.

Its nothing to do with luck at all, but it has everything to do with the club being like an ostrich, regarding its cultural effect on our kids.

We should not have to go outside, to bring in the top quality Mr Fixit Coaches every 15 years, just because our culture has gone sour once again. We should learn to recognise it for what it is, & be vigilant keeping the receding values at bay.

this is the reason we are so successful with rookies,,,, & so poor the higher the draft pick a kid is.

It IS NO coincidence.

[dee-luded 2,959]

Because the questions and the type of player we sought was wrong.

Too many failures for it to be anything else

your partly right here WYL imo, that we went for too much athlete, when competative hunger should be the first box ticked off on, at all times.

this should be the basis of our drafting kids, the first priority; followed by footy smarts & then disposal skills.

Edited August 29, 2015 by dee-luded

[Macca 17,013]

It's obviously not poor recruiting choices, because every single one of those players was taken at the exact pick they were supposed to be taken at and would have been by every other club. Anyone who argues that point is a straight up moron IMO. You can't put it all down to bad luck either, there is too much of it.

The thing all those players have in common is that they were developed at this dog and pony show we pretend is an AFL footy club

I'd argue that many of the top end draft picks (who were top rated juniors and not necessarily from our club) were just not going to make it even if they were developed properly. Of course it's not all luck but it's not all about development either.

To me, it's always been about the age of the draftees. Many young players "self-develop" in different ways. Some peak early, others peak quite late. It's not one size fits all. Morton peaked early (probably at under 18 level) ... Watts is getting better.

It's an extremely complex discussion point with no clear answers. I can accept the vagaries and grey areas quite willingly. I'm no perfectionist and maybe that's where the problem lies - those who can't deal with imperfection are doomed to complain forever more.

I'd agree that our development levels at our club has previously been poor but McLean was never quick and Sylvia was Sylvia. Trengove busted his foot and Scully took off (and he is certainly not an A grader) Toumpas can't reproduce his SANFL form but the SANFL isn't the AFL.

.

Edited August 29, 2015 by Macca

[Sir Why You Little 37,053]

So it's ok for you to scream at me previously with your use of caps and abbreviated swearing ... and cast aspersions my way with your blatant lies. You started the ball rolling Wyl so stiff cheddar if you get a bit back. If you want to dish it out, learn how to cop it.

The drafting system is flawed and there is some luck involved - there has to be in an imperfect system such as drafting. It's not all luck and I've never said it was all luck. Again, you have comprehension issues.

I'd compare drafting teenagers more to the "favourites" in horse racing ... the large majority of favourites don't win and many don't even run a place. Any punter is armed with that information and should accept the consequences accordingly.

Of course, many of us have known punters who like to moan and groan - those here who complain about top end draft picks that don't work out remind me of those "mug" punters. Complaining about it will get you absolutely nowhere - the outcomes are the outcomes.

Maybe a career awaits you in recruiting - you should give it a try as you seem to know all the answers. Me, I can't explain why a number of top juniors can't cut it - the reality is, no one can.

.

Hahaha i started a ball rolling. Yeah right.

You are the one who continually says the Draft is Flawed...No it is not. 17 orher clubs use the same Draft.

The MFC have wasted opportunities over and over again.

Why?

Continually targetting the wrong players who do no possess the right mindset.

I would love to interview players before drafting

I would ask the same questions i have asked potential employees where i work.

A lot of football skills can be taught..That is not my forté

But getting the right attitude on board is a standard for any job...That is ingrained

Part of ones DNA