Future Planning

[rpfc 28,769]

Fan raised an interesting point about getting ready for the 2012 draft (namely Bate being delisted next year will be more beneficial than Pick 39 in this draft), and I think as it impacts on deletions now we should have a chat about it.

In the 2012 draft we will want to use the two first round comp picks and the pick that we will take Viney with. I assume we will also use our second and third round picks. After that, it will be a pro-con decision. I also believe we will upgrade Nicholson.

That means at least 6 deletions from the main list at the end of 2012.

Who are we looking at here?

If Maric, Warnock, and HWMNBN (he-who-must-not-be-named) make the three picks to get 36, 52, and 54 in this years draft then that is a good starting point to think about who makes way in 2012.

Things to think about:

- MacDonald, Fitzpatrick, and Wonna are OOC this year

- Vulnerable players at the end of 2012? Spencer, Bate, Dunn, Strauss, Davis, Bennell, Jetta, Batram, and Green are out of contract and vulnerable in my view.

- Wonna onto the RL this year (to open up pick 72 or as a swap with Nicholson?) or a simple extension for Wonna on the primary list?

- giving MacDonald an extension for 2012 to better use their deletions from the list

- does Green get another year after 2012?

Interested to hear views as I am sure these are the questions Harrington has been asking Neeld and co. over the past few weeks. I might do an elaborate poll depending on interest levels and time...

rpfc says...

2011 - Maric, Warnock, HWMNBN, and Wonna on to the RL.

+ Clark, 36, 52, 54

2012 - Jamar (VL), Spencer, Dunn, Bate, MacDonald, Batram, and Strauss. *This is heavily dependent on form I must say...

+ Viney, 10, 12, 34, 54,72/PSD/Wonna upgrade and Nicholson upgraded *Picks are rough estimates.

I haven't gone into the PSD at all. Looking at the last pick and the PSD as being interchangeable.

Edit - Forgot about Clark. And forgot Jamar could go onto the VL.

Edited October 19, 2011 by rpfc

[daisycutter 29,737]

Fan raised an interesting point about getting ready for the 2012 draft (namely Bate being delisted next year will be more beneficial than Pick 39 in this draft), and I think as it impacts on deletions now we should have a chat about it.

In the 2012 draft we will want to use the two first round comp picks and the pick that we will take Viney with. I assume we will also use our second and third round picks. After that, it will be a pro-con decision. I also believe we will upgrade Nicholson.

That means at least 6 deletions from the main list at the end of 2012.

Who are we looking at here?

If Maric, Warnock, and HWMNBN (he-who-must-not-be-named) make the three picks to get 36, 52, and 54 in this years draft then that is a good starting point to think about who makes way in 2012.

Things to think about:

- MacDonald and Wonna are OOC this year

- Vulnerable players at the end of 2012? Spencer, Bate, Dunn, Strauss, Davis, Bennell, Jetta, Batram, and Green are out of contract and vulnerable in my view.

- Wonna onto the RL this year (to open up Ick 72 or as a swap with Nicholson?) or a simple extension for Wonna on the primary list?

- giving MacDonald an extension for 2012 to better use their deletions from the list

- does Green get another year after 2012?

Interested to hear views as I am sure these are the questions Harrington has been asking Neeld and co. over the past few weeks. I might do an elaborate poll depending on interest levels and time...

rpfc says...

2011 - Maric, Warnock, HWMNBN, and Wonna on to the RL.

+ Nicholson upgraded, 36, 52, 54 *Nicholson has agreed to be a rookie again next year so a backtrack from the club would be required.

2012 - Spencer, Dunn, Bate, MacDonald, and Strauss. *This is heavily dependent on form I must say...

+ Viney, 10, 12, 34, 54 *These are rough estimates.

HWL would be more succint don't you think rpfc? Sure Rangey would agree

why waste 6 letters on him/it

[Guest Deefence]

I would be thinking only 3 picks next year, Viney being one of them.

Jamar can go onto the Mature List, freeing up a spot.

If Green signed for only one more year, that makes me think it will be his last.

[John Dee 445]

Next year we will have to upgrade both Nicholson and Evans. With getting Viney as well, that makes the three compulsory draft selections. There will be more, but we have twelve months to think about it.

[rpfc 28,769]

HWL would be more succint don't you think rpfc? Sure Rangey would agree

why waste 6 letters on him/it

He Who Lied I presume?

I can't seem to muster up enough care to think about it...

[rpfc 28,769]

Jamar can go onto the Veterans List, freeing up a spot.

Excellent point.

[bluerecord 7]

Is Jake Fitzpatrick contracted for 2012?

I'd imagine he would fall into consideration when looking at delistings both this year and next.

Personally I'd give Maric another year on the senior list and delist Fitzpatrick if he's currently out of contract.

Having said that I would re-draft Fitz as a rookie giving him the chance to get his body right and develop further... can't see him playing much senior footy (if any) in 2012 unless he improves dramatically.

[boydie 655]

Is Jake Fitzpatrick contracted for 2012?

JACK, not Jake.

...and for the others out there that constantly get these wrong, Clark not Clarke, Moloney not Maloney

[old55 23,687]

I think we're possibly going to need 8 list vacanciew next year if we add Viney, 2 Compo picks, 2nd 3rd, 4th round in a good draft year and Nicholson and Evans - Green only makes a vacancy if we can promote another vet. It might turn out that we need less because we might trade the Compo picks for a player or even an MD pick. On the other hand we may bring in someone in Free Agency. I'd be thinking about elevation Nicholson and/or Evans this year to ease the pressure.

[Viney Vidi Vici 148]

It never clicked till now about the fact we will have Viney, 10 and 12 (roughly), if we use our picks next year that is...

Thats an amazing positon. Hope we use it effectively.

I'm wondering though about PSD this year, whether we'll keep room for it. I'm only really interested to see St Kilda's delistings... otherwise no.

For next year though, I'm thinking those fringe players (Bate, Dunn, Bartram, Maric, Spencer, Macdonald) will all probably be on the out. Same as the coaching team, in that those who've done a mediocre job for a while and just kind of held up the ship will be moved on, for fresh faces chosen by the coach himself.

Suggesting that Fitzpatrick will go, especially this year is one of the more rubbish comments i've heard, besides comments Cook should have been traded. Demonblood, go read the thread about developing talls.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,291]

I think we're possibly going to need 8 list vacanciew next year if we add Viney, 2 Compo picks, 2nd 3rd, 4th round in a good draft year and Nicholson and Evans - Green only makes a vacancy if we can promote another vet. It might turn out that we need less because we might trade the Compo picks for a player or even an MD pick. On the other hand we may bring in someone in Free Agency. I'd be thinking about elevation Nicholson and/or Evans this year to ease the pressure.

I would look at the same thing, particularly if we don't see any real value around our 52 & 54 picks. Considering this is meant to be a weak draft if there's nothing that takes our fancy I'd upgrade at least Nicholson this year and maybe Evans as well.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Not sure if this fits in here (the firs bit will, not sure about the second bit!), but will give it a go...

I wouldn't be so quick in getting rid of Fitzpatrick. As we saw this year - it would only take a bad run of injuries to our big guys and we may be sweating on the likes of Fitzy to play a role. Let's not forget, he's coming in to his third year, and after a bad run with injuries, forced himself in to the senior side in the last round. If we can get 6-8 games in to him in 2012, I'd be happy.

The bit that may not fit in here is this...

Jamar has been talked about on a few different threads about being potential trade bait in the next couple of seasons. I am blown away by that thought. Look at Ottens, there is no way that Geelong would've considered trading him - he has played an important role in their 3 premierships, without being one of the best rucks in the league, and is in to his 30's. We have Jamar, who is easiyl in the top 5 rucks, if not top 3 in the league. Ruckman like Cox and Jolly, played great footy this year, and are both going around again in 2012 at least. I rate Jamar in that category, which to me, providing no serious injuries occur, gives him at least 4 seasons as our number 1 ruck. Now, if Gawn comes on, sobeit - LUCKY US!!! Geelong managed to juggle Ottens and West, I can't see why we can't do the same. What I'm getting at is that if we still have Russian playing great footy up until roughly 2015-2016, we are in very, very good shape.

In that time, we can have the likes of Fitzy developing. The big challenge will be how we juggle his development at Casey, and give him as much senior exposure as possible, but without upsetting the Jamar/Martin or Jamar/Gawn balance. We also need to make sure that if Fitzy gets to consistent AFL standard, that he doesn't go looking for other opportunities (ala Mummy). At this stage, we are fine because he wouldn't be in demand at all.

Players that I would see in the firing line would be the likes of Dunn, Maric (who is a monty to go this year), dare I say it Aussie, Greeny may be there in 2013, Bate, maybe Strauss (would want to show good form when back from injury), Joel Mac.

This will probably be quoted, but Dean Bailey has to get some credit for the way he ensured the list be turned over like it was. He put list management before personal achievement. I strongly believe he put the solid foundations in place, and it's now up to Neeld to build a beautiful temple. Neeld now can put the finishing touches to what has been a tough period. It's because of this that I'm certain we wont see massive changes over the next 2 seasons, more just fine tuning, regardless of what sort of Superdarft it is next year.

2012 is THE year that we gain momentum on field. We are flying off it, it's up to the players now. We have to cattle to take this thing forward, might need 1 or 2 more to get to the destination, but I'll say the word again - STABILITY is going to be a key ingredient for the next decade.

Edited October 19, 2011 by billy2803

[DemonWA 3,936]

all hypothetical until we see who playes well under Neeld's style of game plan

[daisycutter 29,737]

It never clicked till now about the fact we will have Viney, 10 and 12 (roughly), if we use our picks next year that is...

Thats an amazing positon. Hope we use it effectively.

I'm wondering though about PSD this year, whether we'll keep room for it. I'm only really interested to see St Kilda's delistings... otherwise no.

For next year though, I'm thinking those fringe players (Bate, Dunn, Bartram, Maric, Spencer, Macdonald) will all probably be on the out. Same as the coaching team, in that those who've done a mediocre job for a while and just kind of held up the ship will be moved on, for fresh faces chosen by the coach himself.

Suggesting that Fitzpatrick will go, especially this year is one of the more rubbish comments i've heard, besides comments Cook should have been traded. Demonblood, go read the thread about developing talls.

Caution. I'd count on those CP's being closer to the 15 mark than the 10 mark

[Viney Vidi Vici 148]

Billy, How can Melbourne possibly support Fitzpatrick, Gawn, Martin, Jamar and Clark?

Ottens did such a great job at Geelong out of necessity. Who else did they have of quality? West wasn't ready, and Blake was not suitable. Mumford could have pushed him for his place, but left. I see Gawn not far behind where Vardy is for Geelong, in that he is very capable, going to be a great player, but needs the opportunities. In a couple of years he will be 23, and a 2m monster with AFL experience under his belt, and ready and raring to go. To escape a Mumford situation as happened with Geelong, there will be some serious juggling going on, and lots of loyalty to be relied on, as there is no practical way to have Jamar and Gawn in the same team. Neither are overly strong forward options.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Billy, How can Melbourne possibly support Fitzpatrick, Gawn, Martin, Jamar and Clark?

Ottens did such a great job at Geelong out of necessity. Who else did they have of quality? West wasn't ready, and Blake was not suitable. Mumford could have pushed him for his place, but left. I see Gawn not far behind where Vardy is for Geelong, in that he is very capable, going to be a great player, but needs the opportunities. In a couple of years he will be 23, and a 2m monster with AFL experience under his belt, and ready and raring to go. To escape a Mumford situation as happened with Geelong, there will be some serious juggling going on, and lots of loyalty to be relied on, as there is no practical way to have Jamar and Gawn in the same team. Neither are overly strong forward options.

Well, I don't expect Fitzpatrick to be anywhere near best 21 in the next 2 years. If he can get 6-8 games in 2012, 12-14 games in 2013, then he is progressing as I would expect. Anything earlier than that - great, andything less - he's in trouble.

Jamar will be there until at least 2015. As said, he is a Top 5 (at least) ruck in the league, and with an injury-free few seasons in a row, will continue to be our number 1 ruck for the next 2-3 seasons.

Clark, for the umpteenth time, IS A FORWARD - we/he just has to determine if that's full forward or centre half forward.

Martin is the interesting one. Martin has shown in 2011 that he is a great 2nd ruck. He is in a situation where his future really is up to him. Does he want to stay that 2nd ruck? Does he want to turn himself in to a CHB or FF? I can't honestly see him taking the number 1 ruck position, especially with the wraps on Gawn. I think Stef has 2 years to decide what he wants to do, and hopefully the coach gives him the opportunity to consolidate his role in the team. With Leigh Brown as an assistant coach, I think he will really assist with Stef over teh coming years - very similar players in my view.

Gawn, in my opinion, will gradually take over the number 1 ruck position.

I don't agree one bit about either Jamar or Gawn being strong forward options. Well, actually, I may. The thing is that they don't have to be "strong" options, just handy. If we have Mitch Clark playing Full Forward/Centre Half Forward, the resting ruckmen just need to create a contest and get the ball to the ground. If they kick a goal, that's a bonus.

[Akum 2,660]

The thing about trading Jamar is that he is the one player we have who could land us either an established A-grade mid via trade, or a top 3 draft pick from GWS or GC from their plethora of early draft picks over the next year or three. Nobody else on our list has that much currency (the closest would be Chip), so if we ever want to trade for top-line mids, the only option is Jamar.

Other clubs would also pay him top dollar in the latter part of his career. It is absolutely certain that Port, for example, will make a massive play for him when he next is out of contract, but they won't be the only ones.

On the other hand, we now have a log-jam of promising young talls who as yet don't have anywhere near Jamar's currency. Martin might get us an early 2nd round if we're lucky, Gawn less. If one of them rips it up next year and massively increases their currency, then it's still Jamar we should trade.

And the quality of our young talls will offset at least some of what we miss by losing Jamar, while we gain massively by nabbing a top-class mid.

[The Chazz 4,077]

The thing about trading Jamar is that he is the one player we have who could land us either an established A-grade mid via trade, or a top 3 draft pick from GWS or GC from their plethora of early draft picks over the next year or three. Nobody else on our list has that much currency (the closest would be Chip), so if we ever want to trade for top-line mids, the only option is Jamar.

Other clubs would also pay him top dollar in the latter part of his career. It is absolutely certain that Port, for example, will make a massive play for him when he next is out of contract, but they won't be the only ones.

On the other hand, we now have a log-jam of promising young talls who as yet don't have anywhere near Jamar's currency. Martin might get us an early 2nd round if we're lucky, Gawn less. If one of them rips it up next year and massively increases their currency, then it's still Jamar we should trade.

And the quality of our young talls will offset at least some of what we miss by losing Jamar, while we gain massively by nabbing a top-class mid.

What would we get from Port? Do you really think they would offer a pick 3? Could you see GWS or GC offering us their number 1 or 2 picks for Jamar? Let's be serious about this.

We have 3 potential 1st round selections next year, in the so called superdraft. We will get Viney, we can trade the other 2 (which will be maybe picks 10 & 12-ish) for an established mid (to please his lovers, I think that deal would get Dangerfield), without the need of trading our best ruckman.

Fitzpatrick WILL NOT be ready for number 1 or 2 ruckman in the next 3 years. That doesn't mean we get rid of him, it means we continue to develop him, like Geelong did with West, and as the other thread suggests about big guys taking time to develop, then all of a sudden, in 2015, Gawn is number 1 ruck and hopefully Fitzy is number 2, with Martin a key forward/back.

I'm struggling to understand any logic in getting rid of any of Jamar, Fitzpatrick, Gawn or Martin. If you are obsessed with trading one of our excess rucks, Spencer is the man.

[Viney Vidi Vici 148]

I think everyone has accepted Spencer isn't close to the best 21 anytime soon.

I wasn't specifying that list, including Clark, as ruckmen, but just as big men on the field. A forward line with Clark, Watts, Jurrah and a resting ruckman is pretty ridiculously tall (and yes, I know Jurrah isn't a 'tall' persay, but he does bring the ball to ground).

Look at Essendon's attempts to make it work. Thats my concerns regarding this year.

my concern for the future is that we will have multiple talls pushing for a place in the side, and I would much rather see Jamar go in the twilight of his career, rather than Gawn leave at the beginning of a great career.

[Jordie_tackles 354]

If we dont make Gawns options clear to him at the Dees, as mentioned we will lose him ala Mumford.

There will barley be a club out there that wouldnt look at him.

HE will get offered far and above what Mumford got next time he is out of contract, that is for sure, this is the issue, no Clark or Martin Jamar and Gawn both being worthy 1st rucks by the time Gawn is out of contract next. Gawn having another 8 years in the system minimum.

[The Chazz 4,077]

I think everyone has accepted Spencer isn't close to the best 21 anytime soon.

I wasn't specifying that list, including Clark, as ruckmen, but just as big men on the field. A forward line with Clark, Watts, Jurrah and a resting ruckman is pretty ridiculously tall (and yes, I know Jurrah isn't a 'tall' persay, but he does bring the ball to ground).

Look at Essendon's attempts to make it work. Thats my concerns regarding this year.

my concern for the future is that we will have multiple talls pushing for a place in the side, and I would much rather see Jamar go in the twilight of his career, rather than Gawn leave at the beginning of a great career.

Well BBB, I understand where you are coming from, and thankfully, you or I don't need to worry about such decisions - that's what Neeld is being paid the big bucks for! I know I'm really intrigued with how the next 2 seasons will pan out. If they get things right, especially the balance of the big brigade, we'll be looking awesome!

[Akum 2,660]

What would we get from Port? Do you really think they would offer a pick 3? Could you see GWS or GC offering us their number 1 or 2 picks for Jamar? Let's be serious about this.

We have 3 potential 1st round selections next year, in the so called superdraft. We will get Viney, we can trade the other 2 (which will be maybe picks 10 & 12-ish) for an established mid (to please his lovers, I think that deal would get Dangerfield), without the need of trading our best ruckman.

...

I'm struggling to understand any logic in getting rid of any of Jamar, Fitzpatrick, Gawn or Martin. If you are obsessed with trading one of our excess rucks, Spencer is the man.

You missed the point a bit. I'm not saying Port have an A-grade mid to trade with us (unless Boak improves out of sight). I'm using Port as an example of one of many clubs who will make a massive play for Jamar this time next year. Other clubs with elite mids who might be prepared to have a long hard look at trading for an elite ruck at the end of next year include Hawks & Saints, even Tigers & Dogs.

And GC & GWS? They (esp GC) have some great young midfielders, but if they're getting absolutely smashed in the ruck game after game after game ... then yeh, they'll have all the top 3 picks between them in the next 3 drafts, they may well be prepared to give up one of them for the right price.

And Spencer would get us a third-round pick, if we're lucky, which we don't need. Not when we can trade another tall (admittedly far better) and get something we really need to take us to that top level.

Viney will be great, but as others have said, our compo picks will be more like 15 & 17 than 10 & 12. Big diff between pick 15 & pick 3 next year, if we can get it.

My point is that Jamar is the only player on our list who has the currency to get us what we really need - an A-grade mid.

[The Chazz 4,077]

You missed the point a bit. I'm not saying Port have an A-grade mid to trade with us (unless Boak improves out of sight). I'm using Port as an example of one of many clubs who will make a massive play for Jamar this time next year. Other clubs with elite mids who might be prepared to have a long hard look at trading for an elite ruck at the end of next year include Hawks & Saints, even Tigers & Dogs.

And GC & GWS? They (esp GC) have some great young midfielders, but if they're getting absolutely smashed in the ruck game after game after game ... then yeh, they'll have all the top 3 picks between them in the next 3 drafts, they may well be prepared to give up one of them for the right price.

And Spencer would get us a third-round pick, if we're lucky, which we don't need. Not when we can trade another tall (admittedly far better) and get something we really need to take us to that top level.

Viney will be great, but as others have said, our compo picks will be more like 15 & 17 than 10 & 12. Big diff between pick 15 & pick 3 next year, if we can get it.

My point is that Jamar is the only player on our list who has the currency to get us what we really need - an A-grade mid.

For our compo picks to be 15 & 17, that would mean we would need to finish 3rd on the ladder wouldn't it? Next year isn't a compromised draft - out first compo pick kicks in after our first selection. If we finish 8th (fingers crossed!), our first pick will be pick 10, 1st compo pick = pick 11.

I din't miss your point about the Port example at all, I'm asking you what you think for example, Port would offer for Jamar? If they finish 3rd last next year, they will have pick 3 - they wont do it.

Don't forget 2 big things at the end of next year. 1. Jamar qualifies for our rookie list (freeing up 1/2 his salary as well as a spot on the list. 2. Free agency kicks in, so if a club offers a decent midfielder for Jamar, if said midfielder is eligible for free agency, they may not get to Melbourne.

[daisycutter 29,737]

For our compo picks to be 15 & 17, that would mean we would need to finish 3rd on the ladder wouldn't it? Next year isn't a compromised draft - out first compo pick kicks in after our first selection. If we finish 8th (fingers crossed!), our first pick will be pick 10, 1st compo pick = pick 11.

I din't miss your point about the Port example at all, I'm asking you what you think for example, Port would offer for Jamar? If they finish 3rd last next year, they will have pick 3 - they wont do it.

The 11 pick example could be pushed back another few places if

A lower club's 'After 1st round' pick is exercised

Another club qualifies for the 'losers' compo pick

Edited October 19, 2011 by daisycutter

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

If we dont make Gawns options clear to him at the Dees, as mentioned we will lose him ala Mumford.

There will barley be a club out there that wouldnt look at him.

HE will get offered far and above what Mumford got next time he is out of contract, that is for sure, this is the issue, no Clark or Martin Jamar and Gawn both being worthy 1st rucks by the time Gawn is out of contract next. Gawn having another 8 years in the system minimum.

When is Gawn's contract expire? I feel we have to manage very carefully how to keep Gawn on the list whilst squeezing everything we possibly can out of Jamar. If it comes down to a choice between keeping Jamar, or offloading him to retain Gawn I'd have to say we offload Jamar.

Can't have the cake and eat it too- I'd rather keep Gawn as he has many years left up his sleeve and will be a monster. Jamar might have to make way, and we will still be remunerated quite nicely I'd think.