Tim Harrington's cautious approach to the mini-draft

[pitchfork 181]

We're playing the long game. Let these guys play two years at GC and GWS, cash up in the meantime, then GO HUNTING.

Edit: I hope.

Edited October 12, 2011 by pitchfork

[Dee Fan 3,247]

You need to do the sums and work out the point where you may find renting to be better for you than overspending on a house.

As the old saying goes, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

To take the argument to extremes, would you have traded Watts for Crouch? Why/why not?

At what point would you have said that too much was too much? What would have been your ceiling price for O'Meara/Crouch?

My ceiling would have been all the money I had in the bank for O'Meara which was pick 12 plus 2 compo picks, I would never trade a player like Watts he is one of the core players and that would be like throwing in an ace hoping you'll pick up another one.

You know the old bird in the hand trick.

I've always paid a bit more for a house than I wanted too but I've never regretted it, not once.

BTW How is the capital gain going on renting?

Edited October 12, 2011 by RobbieF

[Mick 1]

Have you ever bought a house, good doctor? I must say I've bought a few in my time and I've very rarely come across the same people even though it's in the same area and a similar house. Each one is generally unique and has it's own set of bidders.

Haha. There are 18 AFL clubs. It's not an open market!

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Haha. There are 18 AFL clubs. It's not an open market!

So you are saying that every club is after every player?

[Axis of Bob 11,840]

The hypothetical money I saved by not overpaying for the house has meant that I am:

a- saving money by renting, (ie, keep the picks) and

b- using my money to go into other growth assets such as shares. (ie, use the picks in other trades or by selecting players with them).

As I said, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

I said that I would pay a very high price for O'Meara, but I am basing that off watching him play only twice and based on my own personal philosophies on what makes us a successful team.

But you say that you'd 'use all the money in the bank', which involves our first picks plus the Scully compo. What about our second round pick? What about trading a good young player?

Whether you realise it or not, you have placed a price on it that you would have bailed out after. The MFC have just set a different price to what you would have.

[beelzebub 23,382]

The hypothetical money I saved by not overpaying for the house has meant that I am:

a- saving money by renting, (ie, keep the picks) and

b- using my money to go into other growth assets such as shares. (ie, use the picks in other trades or by selecting players with them).

As I said, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

I said that I would pay a very high price for O'Meara, but I am basing that off watching him play only twice and based on my own personal philosophies on what makes us a successful team.

But you say that you'd 'use all the money in the bank', which involves our first picks plus the Scully compo. What about our second round pick? What about trading a good young player?

Whether you realise it or not, you have placed a price on it that you would have bailed out after. The MFC have just set a different price to what you would have.

yep.

Its pretty much about where you place the value of your target. All things eminate from that number.

[BAMF 4,385]

What I'm saying is you don't bother going to an auction unless you are prepared to pay the price and you generally have an idea before you go what you will be up for.

For instance if you believe that a house will sell for $1m and you are only prepared to go to $800k then why bother. When you go to an auction you have to factor the spur of the moment bid as well so your limit must be what you are prepared to pay plus what your wife forces you to go to because she badly wants the house.

We knew that GC were going to put Pick 4 on the table it was well publicised and it was also well known that they would have to part with a compo pick. If we weren't prepared to match or better that then why would you put your hand up?

Cool thanks for clearing that up.

I disagree with you.

I bought my house at a great price. Didn't overspend at all. Just took my time looking at every deal and most of them were crap and then with good timing i got a really good price.

Paying 2 compo picks and pick 12 was mentioned a few days ago. Most posters said it was too much.

Clearly that was way too much. Even 2 compensation picks was more than our club was willing to give up.

Hell. even the lesser compensation and pick 12 was deemed too much by the club.

I'll back the clubs knowledge over everyone on this board.

[Mick 1]

So you are saying that every club is after every player?

No. But your analogy is hilarious...

"very rarely come across the same people even though it's in the same area and a similar house. Each one is generally unique and has it's own set of bidders."

There are 18 clubs. As if you're not going to come across the same people and be bidding against the same clubs often. It's just completely different to turning up at one of hundreds of auctions happening on the same day and your suggestion that it's a similar situation is quite frankly a joke.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

The hypothetical money I saved by not overpaying for the house has meant that I am: a- saving money by renting, (ie, keep the picks) and b- using my money to go into other growth assets such as shares. (ie, use the picks in other trades or by selecting players with them). As I said, there's more than one way to skin a cat. I said that I would pay a very high price for O'Meara, but I am basing that off watching him play only twice and based on my own personal philosophies on what makes us a successful team. But you say that you'd 'use all the money in the bank', which involves our first picks plus the Scully compo. What about our second round pick? What about trading a good young player? Whether you realise it or not, you have placed a price on it that you would have bailed out after. The MFC have just set a different price to what you would have.

Short term gain long term pain bob.

Pardon a successful team? When?

You seem to miss my point, I said I wouldn't go in if I didn't think I could afford it in the first place, I would have just looked on or done something else. If you are going to have a crack then have a crack and do it full bore not just half hearted. We could have picked up O'Meara with our pick 12 this year and the two compo picks and probably got a draft pick for this year in return. If we weren't prepared to go to that level then we should have declined to quote. Simple really.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

No. But your analogy is hilarious... "very rarely come across the same people even though it's in the same area and a similar house. Each one is generally unique and has it's own set of bidders." There are 18 clubs. As if you're not going to come across the same people and be bidding against the same clubs often. It's just completely different to turning up at one of hundreds of auctions happening on the same day and your suggestion that it's a similar situation is quite frankly a joke.

Want to give me a couple of examples where we have been in a bidding war with Essendon, Collingwood, Geelong, Bulldogs, Sydney, West Coast, Port, Brisbane and St Kilda (that should do) over the last 10 years?

Just give me a couple even one would do for each club.

[Demon Jim 149]

We are all too hung up on high draft picks. Take the draft picks we have, select well and develop them properly. Thats what Geelong and colingwood have done. No team has become successful purely on the back of high draft picks. Player development is clearly more important that high draft picks when it comes to winning flags and we seem to be investing heavily in this area.

[beelzebub 23,382]

So much of this seems like an esteem problem of sorts. Some just want to be able to say , yep we got one too . We got one of those kids.. hey ,shhh, we paid a little bit too much , snigger -snigger b ut we got 'im !!

This is not about going to the show and getting a showbag just because someone else did. You go to the show, do what YOU need/want to and work to your agenda, not someone else's.

No one else has OUR list...so we need to do what we need to do. Lets not worry so much about what other clubs do or dont.

[Axis of Bob 11,840]

RF:

Short term gain? The options actually play out at the same time. The compo picks won't be used until next year, just like O'Meara and Crouch won't play until next year. It's actually a longer term decision, should we not trade the compo picks, to hang on to them since we don't get access to training etc for a year later.

You have misunderstood me in saying a successful team. I was talking about my philosophies on what I think would make us a successful team. That is, what I would like to do to make us successful.

So I have missed your point? You wouldn't go to an auction because you thought that you might not win. I don't see how that is logical at all. I have been to auctions before where I thought that if things panned out the way I wanted then I would buy it. At times I have been unsuccessful because someone wanted to pay more for it than me.

But I wasn't unsuccessful every time!

What did I lose out of being part of it?

What did Melbourne lose out of bidding for the 17 yo picks?

Edited October 12, 2011 by Axis of Bob

[Mick 1]

Want to give me a couple of examples where we have been in a bidding war with Essendon, Collingwood, Geelong, Bulldogs, Sydney, West Coast, Port, Brisbane and St Kilda (that should do) over the last 10 years?

Just give me a couple even one would do for each club.

Hahaha - keep trying to justify the ridiculous. Why don't you come up with examples of bidding wars where each of the parties involved didn't recognise anyone at the table? Pretty confident I could come up with more examples where 2 AFL clubs were involved in a bidding war than you could provide where one AFL club was bidding with some random stranger looking for a bargain!

Keep digging yourself a hole if you like. Another joke post.

[Redleg 41,409]

If I go to an auction with the intention to buy then I need a point that I won't go past. If you don't then you are only screwing yourself.

But, it doesn't mean that I don't want the house. It just means that there are also other houses that represent value and will offer better value than the original when the price of the original gets too high. If someone is willing to pay too much for the house then you walk away .... disappointed, but satisfied that you kept your head.

If you just want to win the auction then, in effect, you lose.

The 17yos aren't the only options. We have the best hand in the next draft, which is alleged to be incredible. Alternatively we have the best hand for the next 17 yo draft if we want to participate.

Copmparing houses to footballers is stupid. If you overpay for a house that you love and live there and it goes up in value as they do over time, so what. If you overpay for a footballer that may turn out to be a dud big difference.

[Redleg 41,409]

We're playing the long game. Let these guys play two years at GC and GWS, cash up in the meantime, then GO HUNTING.

Edit: I hope.

Hear you loud and clear.

[Nasher 33,617]

Copmparing houses to footballers is stupid. If you overpay for a house that you love and live there and it goes up in value as they do over time, so what. If you overpay for a footballer that may turn out to be a dud big difference.

That strengthens Bob's argument if anything.

[rpfc 28,736]

We have to nominate when we are to use the picks, if we wish to, before the season.

So if we wish to use the picks in 2012 then we must say we are to use them in a few months time.

I wonder if we can trade those comp picks in October 2012 before Nov 2012 draft. Anyone got an answer?

[Scoop Junior 3,513]

I think the key point is what we believe our list needs.

IMO a midfield star or two is paramount.

So with this in mind, you develop your strategy, which is putting the club in the best position to get these midfield stars.

The question then is are you more likely to get a midfield star with pick 1 or 2 in the MD or with picks around the 12-16 mark in the ND?

Recent draft history shows that you're more likely to get a midfield star in the top 10 than picks 10-20. Likewise you are even more likely to get a midfield star in the top 5 picks.

I haven't seen Crouch and O'Meara play but am happy to defer to the opinion of the recruiters who have indicated that O'Meara and Crouch would be top 5 picks in the draft.

I'm not interested in recruiting more midfield foot soldiers and would happily trade away a number of foot soldiers for a midfield star.

Now what do we give up for a crack at one of these top 5 players? Given our need for midfield stars, I would have thought the MFC would be prepared to pay above market value. Carlton wouldn't, Melbourne would.

So given our needs and recent AFL drafting history, it seems to me that pick 12 and one compensation pick is a deal that makes a lot of sense. Even giving more than that makes sense. In most draft years you'd probably find that clubs would be willing to trade say picks 12 and 15 for a top 5 pick.

Of course pick 12 and the compensation pick may turn out to be midfield stars (and gee I hope they do), but it's a game of probability and having a bird in the hand. We had a chance to get that midfield star now rather than relying on the luck of the draft and other variables such as where we finish next year, how many teams get priority picks, which teams use their compensation picks, etc.

I can understand there is always a price ceiling, but to me it seems our ceiling was too low and typically too conservative.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Hahaha - keep trying to justify the ridiculous. Why don't you come up with examples of bidding wars where each of the parties involved didn't recognise anyone at the table? Pretty confident I could come up with more examples where 2 AFL clubs were involved in a bidding war than you could provide where one AFL club was bidding with some random stranger looking for a bargain!

Keep digging yourself a hole if you like. Another joke post.

In other words you've got nothing, is that it?

I don't have to come up with anything read, your own post, you made the comment, I asked you to justify it, you can't.

Anything else to add?

[Axis of Bob 11,840]

That's my position too, Scoop. I think we lack the X-factor in the middle that's worthy of a tag ... and capable of breaking it.

The thing that makes me reluctant to go too hard is that we don't know what players those compo picks would get us next. All that we know is that the draft is supposed to be top class.

For that reason, while disappointed, I am willing to defer to the judgment of those who actually know what's happening (rather than all of us here guessing with next to no information).

[Redleg 41,409]

For that reason, while disappointed, I am willing to defer to the judgment of those who actually know what's happening (rather than all of us here guessing with next to no information).

You mean as opposed to people with more information guessing what may be available in a year's time with their picks.

[bing181 9,328]

it seems to me that pick 12 and one compensation pick is a deal that makes a lot of sense.

... which, according to the press, is what we offered. So where's the problem?

Bizarre thread overall though. No untried player, let alone a 17 year old, is worth 3 first round picks, which is what some people are suggesting. And for all those jumping up and down about "top 2 picks", it's only the mini-draft, one year in advance, for a small selection of the total of 17 year olds who'll be available next year. Whether Crouch and O'Meara would have gone top 5 once everyone was included and a year down the track, we'll never know.

Be good to keep a bit of perspective on this.

[Axis of Bob 11,840]

You mean as opposed to people with more information guessing what may be available in a year's time with their picks.

As in our recruiting network? Guys who work full time to be able to value the worth of prospective footballers? Yes I believe they have a pretty good idea of what those picks are worth.

As opposed the all of us ignoramuses, who may have seen a game or two of under 18 footy this year but are really just throwing darts blindfolded.

[beelzebub 23,382]

Itd be good, but unlikely to happen ..lol