Finals

[deejammin' 2,066]

I have thus far not got involved in talking about the end of season result, but an addiction to the Bailey ladder predictor during bye week has got me interested. All the ways that I have plugged in results, with favourites winning to the end of the season, has Melbourne coming 8th, winning against Port Adelaide twice, Richmond once and the Gold Coast. I acknowledge that on current form anything could happen in the games I have assumed we would win, however it is promising to note that if we win these eminently winable games it seems likely (given my time on the predictor) that we will make the 8, and for my money, we will play the Blues.....

Who knows, but a big win this week in Darwin could be the beginning of something special...

[Range Rover 1,935]

I have thus far not got involved in talking about the end of season result, but an addiction to the Bailey ladder predictor during bye week has got me interested. All the ways that I have plugged in results, with favourites winning to the end of the season, has Melbourne coming 8th, winning against Port Adelaide twice, Richmond once and the Gold Coast. I acknowledge that on current form anything could happen in the games I have assumed we would win, however it is promising to note that if we win these eminently winable games it seems likely (given my time on the predictor) that we will make the 8, and for my money, we will play the Blues.....

Who knows, but a big win this week in Darwin could be the beginning of something special...

To make the finals we'll have to win five more games.

10 and half wins won't get you there. 11 and a half will.

This means we have to win all of the remaining winnable games (Port twice, Tigers again and the Gold Coast),

AND we'll have to beat one of Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton and the Eagles in our horror run from rounds 18 - 21.

It will take a remarkable lift in form for that to happen. I have us just missing out and finishing anywhere from 9th - 11th.

Losing to North, the Bulldogs and St Kilda are the standout losses where we really needed to make a statement, and didn't.

[deejammin' 2,066]

I have a lot of respect for your views on here RR, but where did the figure of 11 come from? On the predictor I'm having 10 and a half making it by a full game.... Who did you have Essendon or North or St Kilda beating?

[Range Rover 1,935]

I have a lot of respect for your views on here RR, but where did the figure of 11 come from? On the predictor I'm having 10 and a half making it by a full game.... Who did you have Essendon or North or St Kilda beating?

Just my assessment Deejammin'. There are some crucial games when you look through the fixture for all of those teams.

In the end your guess is as good as mine.

[Scipio 5,868]

Don't think we will make finals and from what I have seen so far we definitely do not deserve to. Put it down as another development year.

[Jonesy!!! 27]

i think west coast will decide if we make it or not in a few ways

1. If we beat them 11.5 by most ladder predictions will get us in

2.They play St.Kilda(ES), Freo(PS), Doggies(ES), Ess(ES).. I had all 4 of those sides surrounding us in 7th-11th on the ladder predictor.. If wc can win all or most of those then, 10.5 may be enough for us to sneak in

for the record i have doggies 7th, essendon 8th, melbourne 9th on percentage

and i dont think not making the finals is the be all and end all.. i see our development as 2 wins a year is enough.. 8.5 last year, 10.5 this year, 12 next year and so on until top 4 and if you make top 4 you can win the flag

Edited July 11, 2011 by Jonesy!!!

[wisedog 326]

We should easily beat Port, Tiges and the Suns. But of those four games, Port at AAMI has me the most nervous. As much of a basket case as they are, we have a terrible record up there, and they might just lift to farewell a few players (Cornes?). We need to make a big statement on Saturday to get the psychological edge!

But none of it will matter if we can't beat one of Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton or West Coast.

For the record I think we'll finish about 9th. St Kilda will come in at the expense of Essendon, and either Fremantle or the Bulldogs will take the final spot. (Wouldn't have thought so 2 weeks ago....)

[Deemort 28]

i think west coast will decide if we make it or not in a few ways

1. If we beat them 11.5 by most ladder predictions will get us in

2.They play St.Kilda(ES), Freo(PS), Doggies(ES), Ess(ES).. I had all 4 of those sides surrounding us in 7th-11th on the ladder predictor.. If wc can win all or most of those then, 10.5 may be enough for us to sneak in

for the record i have doggies 7th, essendon 8th, melbourne 9th on percentage

and i dont think not making the finals is the be all and end all.. i see our development as 2 wins a year is enough.. 8.5 last year, 10.5 this year, 12 next year and so on until top 4 and if you make top 4 you can win the flag

I had exactly the same, with the wins stated in OP we would also need to beat West Coast at Etihad to be pretty much assured of a spot (or one of Carlton, Cats or Hawks). If we don't win one of those we need to make up 10% or so on the Bombers to pinch 8th (GC at the G might be the key). And I also had us playing the blues in 5th if we get in. By the way why the hell are we not playing the Eagles at the G? Not much of a home ground advantage there, they will pants us again I'm guessing

[Deemort 28]

We should easily beat Port, Tiges and the Suns. But of those four games, Port at AAMI has me the most nervous. As much of a basket case as they are, we have a terrible record up there, and they might just lift to farewell a few players (Cornes?). We need to make a big statement on Saturday to get the psychological edge!

But none of it will matter if we can't beat one of Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton or West Coast.

For the record I think we'll finish about 9th. St Kilda will come in at the expense of Essendon, and either Fremantle or the Bulldogs will take the final spot. (Wouldn't have thought so 2 weeks ago....)

Good news is that games has been moved to their new ground, Adelaide Oval. If that is good news? They'll be keen to get off to a good record there no doubt. Still at least it's not AAMI!

[Deemort 28]

We should easily beat Port, Tiges and the Suns. But of those four games, Port at AAMI has me the most nervous. As much of a basket case as they are, we have a terrible record up there, and they might just lift to farewell a few players (Cornes?). We need to make a big statement on Saturday to get the psychological edge!

But none of it will matter if we can't beat one of Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton or West Coast.

For the record I think we'll finish about 9th. St Kilda will come in at the expense of Essendon, and either Fremantle or the Bulldogs will take the final spot. (Wouldn't have thought so 2 weeks ago....)

There is a reason Freo is $4.50 to make the 8 and we are $2.25 yet they are in 7th and we are in 10th. They will be lucky to win 2 games looking at their run home. I have them missing comfortably. And if we can make up 10% on the bombers we wont have to beat one of the 4 teams you mentioned to get in, providing we win the ones you have listed including port twice.

Probably lose to Port on Saturday and this talk will be pointless and the site will be in Meltdown like after the Eagles drubbing. Shouln't though, fingers crossed. B)

[wisedog 326]

Good news is that games has been moved to their new ground, Adelaide Oval. If that is good news? They'll be keen to get off to a good record there no doubt. Still at least it's not AAMI!

Good news indeed. When did we last win a game at AAMI? Surely it wasn't as far back as Leoncelli's match winning goal 10 years ago?!

EDIT: It was...

Edited July 11, 2011 by wisedog

[Rollo2 64]

Good news indeed. When did we last win a game at AAMI? Surely it wasn't as far back as Leoncelli's match winning goal 10 years ago?!

EDIT: It was...

Thanks for that wisedog!

How good was Schwarter's punch? The man was a monkey genius.

[biggestred 4,317]

we did win there in the pre-season komedy cup if that means anything

[Mac7 309]

For some reason I feel we are sneaky chance to beat Carlton... not a big chance, just a sneaky one.

This could take us to the 11.5.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

"we'll have to beat one of Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton and the Eagles"

that's what it comes down to (Eagles at Etihad is doable)

but if by some freak occurrence both the Dogs and Bombers fall in a heap we could get a miracle 8th with only 10.5 wins

[Whispering_Jack 28,004]

I don't believe 10 wins, a draw and an ordinary percentage will be sufficient to make the top 8 or, for that matter, render the team deserving of playing off in the finals. We have dropped games to three other contenders - North, St. Kilda and the Bulldogs - when a win in any one of those might have put us in with a good chance. In reality, we didn't even come close to deserving victory in any of those games.

In order for us to make the finals, if that is indeed the aim in what is still a development year for the club, we need to win games not only against teams we're expected to beat but also to win against at least one of the top four aspirants we're due to play in the four week block after the Port Adelaide game. I don't believe that under our current set up we can win any of those games but I reckon we should have a crack at it by tweaking the makeup of the team. I don't think this will happen for Saturday night's game in the tropics but I can see possibilities for an attack on Hawthorn should we win against Port.

In the meantime, the finals aren't really on the agenda. We need to take things one week at a time, hope for no more injuries and some of the injured to return and otherwise continue to develop our young team so they can make a surge forward in the next year or two.

[deejammin' 2,066]

Well, as stated by Jonesy, West Coast held the key to the 10.5 sneak in, and in losing to St Kilda tonight have made it nearly impossible. The Dees will now have to beat one of the tougher four games. Can't say I saw St Kilda beating (arguably) the form team of the comp coming tonight...

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

10 and half wins won't get you there. 11 and a half will.

I just did the ladder predictor, and I had us in 8th, .7 percentage points over the Saints in 9th. It COULD happen. It's just very unlikely with all the results going the way of our big rivals.

It's pretty simple I reckon. Beat one of these big four teams, we get in. I think.

That's not that strange. Geelong losing to Essendon, Dogs victory and Saints over WC are crazy results.

[Face Your Demons 175]

If they are not up for the "Bruise free cup" they will never be up

[Rod Grinter Riot Squad 5,636]

Exactly FYD

We will beat the blues in a bruising encounter

[Guest Gotzy15]

I just entered my results for the bailey ladder predictor and i had us finishing 10th on 10.5 wins maybe 9th depending on how big our wins are against the sides we should beat if thats the case. So looks like were going to be doing a lot of relying on other teams results to get there.

1. Collingwood 84

2. Geelong 76

3.Carlton 66

4. West Coast 64

5. Hawthorn 60

6. Bulldogs 56

7. Sydney 50

8. St Kilda 46

9. Essendon 42

10. Melbourne 42

[pantaloons 2,019]

If they are not up for the "Bruise free cup" they will never be up

Yep. And I heard that Rebecca Twigley is due to pop out some offspring around the date of our game, and Judd is adamant he'll be at the birth. While it's only a slim chance, we could catch a big break there.

And yes, we'll definitely need 11 1/2 wins, especially after the results of the last 3 weeks. Hawthorn and Geelong look to be complete write-offs, and given our disgusting record at Docklands, the Carlton game looks the most likely chance. As others have pointed out, we really need to take a step and start beating some teams who are better than us. Or, we could just continue Bailey's record of only beating interstate sides and sash-wearing Victorian sides and sneak in with 11 1/2!

[east gippsland demon 7]

I reckon well beat Hawthorn next week.

[jumbo returns 6,493]

Cats for mine - I reckon they're slowing down and they're ripe for a loss.

It'll be the biggest upset since Dandy Andy won the Australian Cup

or

Keating's election win in 1993

or

Graham Teasdale winning a Brownlow medal......

[Rich Demon 5]

I just had us finishing second with 14.5 wins 140%. Double chance would be nice.