Bailey - is this part of the master plan?

[The Chazz 4,077]

After watching the pi$$-weak effort against the Crows, and our drop in form over the past 4-6 weeks (with the odd exception), it has got me thinking about what has changed at this great Club. We can put it down to a young list, or the fact that most of the teams we have played in this time are finals bound and we're not, but I would like you to consider this...

I have no doubt in my mind that the Club has sat down and worked out how many games we will win between now and the end of the year. My tip is that we will win another 3 games, which will give us 7 and a draw for the year. Reality is, if we were offered 7 wins and a draw at the start of the season (should really have been 9 wins with the losses to the Dogs and Pies), most of us realistic supporters would have grabbed it with both hands. This will see us finishing around 12th (again, something we were happy with at the start of the season), a great improvement for a young, up and coming team, and a great springboard in to season 2011 where 8th spot is a realistic goal. This ladder position will see us with pick 12 (or possibly 10 if we finish 13th), which as we have seen with Gysberts and Grimes, it's still going to be a handy player providing BP continues his good form!

Because of this, I think we will see some very interesting, and at times, questionable selections and player positioning. Let's face it, Miller will be gone at the end of the year. It's a respect thing at the moment that isn't costing the Club at this stage. If we were going for a top 4 spot, he wouldn't be in the team, simple. Where it's hard for Bailey is that if he continues to have zero impact in multiple games, the football world will start seriously questioning our tactics by playing him (hence him being named of the extended bench this week).

Another move that seems to have gone unnoticed is Jones turning in to a tagger. A great experiment and could really set up NJ's career, especially with a developing midfield. Some weeks he has played well, some weeks he hasn't, again, it hasn't hurt the team one bit in its development.

One move I would dearly love to see happen is for Watts to play number 2 ruck for the rest of the year. He has the leap, the motor and the football brain to play this position for a year or two while Gawn is developing. It will get him involved in the game more, and make him play the defensive role more. It will also help him realise he needs to keep his footing!

We are lucky we are in the position we are in, otherwise the "Tank" word would have been mentioned after that Crows crap. We have seen our game plan, we have seen it work bloody well, and it has won us games. Yes, we have seen it shutdown, but as the players develop, they will become the dictators of a lot of games. They should become a powerhouse like Geelong are/have been, but let's face it, even the Cats have their game plan stopped at times.

As I mentioned above, I think Bailey has marked the games that we will win - it wont be any more than 3, and for the other games, we will probably see some poor performances. Generally a great guide to how serious Melbourne is taking a game is by listening to Garry Lyon on TFS. He knows when we are going to have a crack as he will often pick us against a side that should beat us (the 2 games against Collingwood this year he has mentioned that we are a big chance). At this point in the season, there is no need to bust our guts week after week - it will not achieve anything. For the rest of the year, I think we will see players like Cheney and Strauss get back and hold their spot for bulk games (6-8), and maybe even Tapscott to sneak in and play the last 3.

Next year will be a totally different story - a finals birth will be the expectation, and I think that will be the telling factor in Bailey's future. He has deserved his role for 2011. 2010 has shown him who will be the contenders for a best 22 spot, and who are the pretenders. Guys like Bartram and Dunn have probably taken that step up, sadly, Paul Johnson, Newton, Bell, Miller and Maric haven't.

I have no evidence to support my views mentioned above, a lot of them aren't ground-breaking statements either, but it will be interesting to see other opinions.

Is the St Kilda game one we have circled? Hell, we bloody near did it last year when they were flying and we were "experimenting", what a great way to kick off our 2011 membership campaign with a win this week. We have proven we can compete against the good sides, so who would know??!! Maybe someone can let me know what Lyon said on TFS this week! I am fying back to Vic from Qld this weekend so will be at the game, haven't seen a live win for 5 years so I hope this one is one of the "chosen" ones!

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Really enjoyed reading this post. Whether there's truth to it or not, I don't know - but your comments about Lyon's assessment of things are interesting.

I have to say that Bailey has consistently said there'll be ups and downs this year, which has been true. I was incredibly underwhelmed with the Dees' effort against the Crows, and I fear that this insipid performance cannot have been part of a master plan. Having said that, as against the Pies(x2) and the Dogs, their performances were genuinely top tier and I saw enough to know that we will be contenders in the years to come.

In short, I agree - I think Bailey knows what he's doing and that he's currently the man for the job. I also like what he's done with Dunn and Bartram this year.

[hoopla 418]

I have no doubt in my mind that the Club has sat down and worked out how many games we will win between now and the end of the year.

Because of this, I think we will see some very interesting, and at times, questionable selections and player positioning.

I,to, think that the club knows what it is doing. DB is definitely working to a long-term plan - rather than on maximizing our wins in 2010. I'm not sure that the club will have gone as far as nominating "on weeks" and "off weeks" ... but I'm sure that selection is being influence by plans to give some players a certain number of games over the season.

It's interesting that Maric is in the squad this week .... and I have no doubt that Tapscott will sneak in a game or two regardless of the form of others.

At the other end of the scale - I wonder what the issue is with Morton. If - as some have said his knee is still sore - he shouldn't be playing for Casey. He is being taught some sort of a lesson ... because I have no doubt he is an important part of our future.

[beelzebub 23,383]

I think you will get many who quite legitimately will argue we (mfc) can't order games to suit. In the spirit of the OP though I think there is something to the notion that Bails will try to work it to best outcome which may not be win stall cost at presentas there is no point or need .This isn't the tanking of the last 2 years but constructive positioning. Kids need games in legs ( and together ) Some perserverance at the scoreboards expence will be experienced. We aren't making a tilt yet were still building and moulding a team. In short I very much expect a further changing of the guard as season rolls to it's finish together with some swansong selections. Agree 2011 and on is a different matter.

[Dockett 32 1,239]

It occured to me that when your marching time in the AFL it's all a bit like doing the ...... gardening which is a rather sad analogy.

Initially you have to get out the weeds and dead stuff.

Then you have to acquire the new plants.

Then you have to design the garden , plant the plants, feed and nuture them etc.

Eventually they should look be pretty good.

We've only just planted them but a few blossoms have alraedy appeared.

Pretty soon it will be like Flemington on Cup Day!

[Sir Why You Little 37,149]

At this point in the season, there is no need to bust our guts week after week - it will not achieve anything.

This is the kind of attitude that pisses me off.

It's always "Lets wait till next year" After last weeks display i would be sending the Team to Boot camp for "10 Days in the Cooler"

The are 8 games to go & we should Bust a Gut To win each one of them. Build a winning culture as well as teaching the kids.

Not Busting ya Guts for the jumper will achieve NOTHING....

[jackaub 1,402]

After watching the pi$$-weak effort against the Crows, and our drop in form over the past 4-6 weeks (with the odd exception), it has got me thinking about what has changed at this great Club. We can put it down to a young list, or the fact that most of the teams we have played in this time are finals bound and we're not, but I would like you to consider this...

I have no doubt in my mind that the Club has sat down and worked out how many games we will win between now and the end of the year. My tip is that we will win another 3 games, which will give us 7 and a draw for the year. Reality is, if we were offered 7 wins and a draw at the start of the season (should really have been 9 wins with the losses to the Dogs and Pies), most of us realistic supporters would have grabbed it with both hands. This will see us finishing around 12th (again, something we were happy with at the start of the season), a great improvement for a young, up and coming team, and a great springboard in to season 2011 where 8th spot is a realistic goal. This ladder position will see us with pick 12 (or possibly 10 if we finish 13th), which as we have seen with Gysberts and Grimes, it's still going to be a handy player providing BP continues his good form!

Because of this, I think we will see some very interesting, and at times, questionable selections and player positioning. Let's face it, Miller will be gone at the end of the year. It's a respect thing at the moment that isn't costing the Club at this stage. If we were going for a top 4 spot, he wouldn't be in the team, simple. Where it's hard for Bailey is that if he continues to have zero impact in multiple games, the football world will start seriously questioning our tactics by playing him (hence him being named of the extended bench this week).

Another move that seems to have gone unnoticed is Jones turning in to a tagger. A great experiment and could really set up NJ's career, especially with a developing midfield. Some weeks he has played well, some weeks he hasn't, again, it hasn't hurt the team one bit in its development.

One move I would dearly love to see happen is for Watts to play number 2 ruck for the rest of the year. He has the leap, the motor and the football brain to play this position for a year or two while Gawn is developing. It will get him involved in the game more, and make him play the defensive role more. It will also help him realise he needs to keep his footing!

We are lucky we are in the position we are in, otherwise the "Tank" word would have been mentioned after that Crows crap. We have seen our game plan, we have seen it work bloody well, and it has won us games. Yes, we have seen it shutdown, but as the players develop, they will become the dictators of a lot of games. They should become a powerhouse like Geelong are/have been, but let's face it, even the Cats have their game plan stopped at times.

As I mentioned above, I think Bailey has marked the games that we will win - it wont be any more than 3, and for the other games, we will probably see some poor performances. Generally a great guide to how serious Melbourne is taking a game is by listening to Garry Lyon on TFS. He knows when we are going to have a crack as he will often pick us against a side that should beat us (the 2 games against Collingwood this year he has mentioned that we are a big chance). At this point in the season, there is no need to bust our guts week after week - it will not achieve anything. For the rest of the year, I think we will see players like Cheney and Strauss get back and hold their spot for bulk games (6-8), and maybe even Tapscott to sneak in and play the last 3.

Next year will be a totally different story - a finals birth will be the expectation, and I think that will be the telling factor in Bailey's future. He has deserved his role for 2011. 2010 has shown him who will be the contenders for a best 22 spot, and who are the pretenders. Guys like Bartram and Dunn have probably taken that step up, sadly, Paul Johnson, Newton, Bell, Miller and Maric haven't.

I have no evidence to support my views mentioned above, a lot of them aren't ground-breaking statements either, but it will be interesting to see other opinions.

Is the St Kilda game one we have circled? Hell, we bloody near did it last year when they were flying and we were "experimenting", what a great way to kick off our 2011 membership campaign with a win this week. We have proven we can compete against the good sides, so who would know??!! Maybe someone can let me know what Lyon said on TFS this week! I am fying back to Vic from Qld this weekend so will be at the game, haven't seen a live win for 5 years so I hope this one is one of the "chosen" ones!

[predman 0]

Read Bailey interview about remedying slow starts And I think I have the solution. In the warm up for the Brissie game I noticed Moloney in the cue behind McDonald giving his captain a series of hearty whacks to his arse... true. Both players started well...

Edited July 2, 2010 by predman

[jackaub 1,402]

I see no evidence that the Demons will win any more games this season in fact our attack on the ball and consistent tackling is getting worse by the week

I am as optimistic as the next supporter but I must admit i am getting concerned again.

Again we are missing the physical side of the game and look weaker than our opposition

BTW can we lose those terrible white away uniforms

[45HG 1,559]

I think the split round has been poor to you Jackaub, but you're not alone.

Our attack on the ball is getting worse by the week?

We had one poor game at a ground we're always poor at, the week before our attack on the ball was easily equal to (at least) the Magpies attack on the ball. We had a poor first quarter against the Blues then were pretty good for the rest. We were belted by the premiership favourites on their dunghill. We beat Port up in Darwin, had a poor game against the Weagles, but a ripper against the Dogs.

Why people resort to throwaway lines so often bewhilders me. People need to remember past the most recent match, especially when making generalisations.

We're a young team, who will be unpredictable from week to week. The only consistent with us is that we'll be inconsistent (and struggle to get inside 50's!).

[Red Sox 2]

Our attack on the ball is getting worse by the week?

We had one poor game at a ground we're always poor at, the week before our attack on the ball was easily equal to (at least) the Magpies attack on the ball. We had a poor first quarter against the Blues then were pretty good for the rest. We were belted by the premiership favourites on their dunghill. We beat Port up in Darwin, had a poor game against the Weagles, but a ripper against the Dogs.

Why people resort to throwaway lines so often bewhilders me. People need to remember past the most recent match, especially when making generalisations.

We're a young team, who will be unpredictable from week to week. The only consistent with us is that we'll be inconsistent (and struggle to get inside 50's!).

Our tackling and intensity is no where near what it was for the first 6 rounds.....this is obvious and IMO really has little to do with having kids, developing etc etc, its all a mindset.

We didn't exactly beat up Port...all heart to get over the line after we nearly blew it so credit to the boys there. Russian especially in both that game and the Pies game. The pies game should have been away from us really but bad kicking is bad football and yes our attack on the ball was better but tackling was still well below the pies on the day....can be misleading this stat at times I will add though.

The eagles game and crows game were serious low points. No intensity at the ball or the tackle for the majority of the day. The eagles game, that last qtr I am sure I'm not alone in having sat there and just waited for someone, anyone to take it on...was very disappointing and gave me shivers of years past.

I can stay satisfied with a solid effort but there is no doubt that the intensity at the ball has dropped away. Our first quarters pretty much are a result of this drop off.

We are just at a pass mark so far for this year which is fine, I wasn't expecting too much more yet. Happy for experimentation through the remaining games also but just really want to see that intensity return that was such a highlight early on.

A bit of us against them mentality that Swooper Northey bought to the club. Does Bailey drive this...not sure.

[Eth 4]

Another move that seems to have gone unnoticed is Jones turning in to a tagger. A great experiment and could really set up NJ's career, especially with a developing midfield. Some weeks he has played well, some weeks he hasn't, again, it hasn't hurt the team one bit in its development.

Could be interesting, and with a midfield of Trengove, Scully, McKenzie, Gysberts, Davey, Viney, Morton and Moloney to come, it may be the only way to him to hold his spot.

And he's a damn good player too, which says something about how our midfield's going to look.

[old dee 23,872]

Read Bailey interview about remedying slow starts And I think I have the solution. In the warm up for the Brissie game I noticed Moloney in the cue behind McDonald giving his captain a series of hearty whacks to his arse... true. Both players started well...

Predman I just read it and the overpowering feeling I had was that he was not that concerned,

"We looked at a couple of main things in the warm-up. We'll probably trial some of that again,"

"We don't want to change all of it, just throw it all out and start again. That's the wrong message to send. We'll keep working at it, but we don't want it to be a massive thing."

Excuse Me! "we don't want it to be a massive thing." I suggest that unless we fix this we are not going anywhere fast.

And that is a massive thing for me.

The feeling I got from the article was all is going well we just need to tinker a bit.

I wonder about Bailey, there had better be a lot better results by this time next year or it may be all over for Bailey.

[Demonator 93]

Great post Billy - enjoyed reading it and agreed with everything you mentioned. You make some very valid points and most of them you wonder about but until they're mentioned in the way you have, you wonder whether you're imagining things or not.

And it's the little things that you've picked up on too, like Garry Lyon and the way he tips. I have also noticed this.

Totally agree with your point about not busting your gut all year when only 7 or 8 wins will be achieved. Maybe that's not the correct way to put it and from my point of view - I'd love to be able to explain it better, but I agree when you say we (the club) should know which games we can or can't win.

Thanks again for the read - top marks!

[predman 0]

Hey Old Dee, I guess a point I was making is that the performance of competitive sports people is derived from attaining the optimal balance between arousal (intent) and clarity (decision making). Slow starts, playing better against higher ranked teams and worse against lower ranked teams seems to be the result of a young team not knowing how manage their own balance. Instead their balance is derived from events out of their control, i.e. the opposition, the ground, 1st quarters, teammates sparking them, etc... Good players are able to internally generate and find this optimal balance between arousal and clarity, get into the zone and stay in it for longer...

I don't know how you train young player to find and maintain this balance but I imagine it is something Bailey and Co are working on. Top level tennis players hone this skill and demonstrate that the ratio of arousal:clarity differs with different personality types i.e Hewitt (high arousal = best tennis) vs Federa (moderate arousal = best tennis), but i may be wrong.

Edited July 2, 2010 by predman

[old dee 23,872]

Hey Old Dee, I guess a point I was making is that the performance of competitive sports people is derived from attaining the optimal balance between arousal (intent) and clarity (decision making). Slow starts, playing better against higher ranked teams and worse against lower ranked teams seems to be the result of a young team not knowing how manage their own balance. Instead their balance is derived from events out of their control, i.e. the opposition, the ground, 1st quarters, teammates sparking them, etc... Good players are able to internally generate and find this optimal balance between arousal and clarity, get into the zone and stay in it for longer...

I don't know how you train young player to find and maintain this balance but I imagine it is something Bailey and Co are working on. Top level tennis players hone this skill and demonstrate that the ratio of arousal:clarity differs with different personality types i.e Hewitt (high arousal = best tennis) vs Federa (moderate arousal = best tennis), but i may be wrong.

You may well be right, thanks for the insite. I must admit a few of these new ideas have passed me by.

So I won't waste my time going on Sunday because all the signals I get from Bailey and company are this is a "tuning" game that we do not expect to win or get close.

Probally better I go and watch Casey at Werribee ( which is not a long way for me .) That might sound cynical but that is the message I get.

If this time next year we have a 50+% win rate I will know you were right, Bailey is a genius and I am a dill.

Hope you are both correct.

[predman 0]

Its an interesting area (arousal:clarity) as the point of niggling a player (i.e. Baker, etc...) is to "over" arouse the player, making it harder for him to think straight. Moloney and Davie (Hall, Judd and Stevie J) struggle when they are targeted in this way.

That said, I don't think Baileys mid week musings have any effect on the players hitting the 1st quarter in the "Zone", rather they are pointing to a team that is struggling to believe that they can win and is starting to get demoralised. The signs of this is the encouragement and support for each other dries up as played stop focusing on supporting their team mates and focus on them selves... Just thoughts.

I'll be away too for the Saints game so be listening on the radio.

Unfortunately Bailey's future status as either a genius or a dill will be decided by the extent to which the MFC list can take responsibility for maximising their (and their team mates) time in the zone (optimal arousal:clarity). The Moloney/McDonald example highlights how the senior group is responsible for this.

Go Dees

Edited July 2, 2010 by predman

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 389]

This is the kind of attitude that pisses me off.

It's always "Lets wait till next year" After last weeks display i would be sending the Team to Boot camp for "10 Days in the Cooler"

The are 8 games to go & we should Bust a Gut To win each one of them. Build a winning culture as well as teaching the kids.

Not Busting ya Guts for the jumper will achieve NOTHING....

I agree with your sentiment here. I think as passionate Melbourne supporters its sometimes harder to see the bigger picture when your getting thrashed or to tolerate poor performances or a lack of intensity from the players when it seemed as though we were beginning to turn the corner at the beginning of the year (and when teams below us on the ladder have strung together some good performances of late). I can only think that the players are perhaps quitely discouraged from throwing themselves into every contest week after week and to rather focus on execution and learning the game plan. When we are not genuine contenders there does seem less reason to risk possible injuries to emerging players by focusing too much on intensity and ferocious attack on the ball. But at the same time you would want attack on the ball to become second nature so not sure if there's any truth at all in this perspective.

[Sir Why You Little 37,149]

I agree with your sentiment here. I think as passionate Melbourne supporters its sometimes harder to see the bigger picture when your getting thrashed or to tolerate poor performances or a lack of intensity from the players when it seemed as though we were beginning to turn the corner at the beginning of the year (and when teams below us on the ladder have strung together some good performances of late). I can only think that the players are perhaps quitely discouraged from throwing themselves into every contest week after week and to rather focus on execution and learning the game plan. When we are not genuine contenders there does seem less reason to risk possible injuries to emerging players by focusing too much on intensity and ferocious attack on the ball. But at the same time you would want attack on the ball to become second nature so not sure if there's any truth at all in this perspective.

Without throwing yourself at the Ball & contest 100% you will never become a contender. It's all very well to learn and know the Theories But the Players and Club need to DO them.

Adelaide would have been waiting for a Timid Melbourne last week and that is what they got. And there is no excuse for that at all. EVER.

Because next year who is to say those doubts do no still exist, even with Training etc.

What use is Beamers Boxing Camp over the Break if not to toughen up players mentally???

But the players must carry that attitude onto the field or else the achieve nothing.

Until someone can eradicate that inner Timidity The MFC will always be perceived as a weak club-particularly on the road.

[Grandson of a gun 276]

Your post is interesting and i agree with much of it. Well written.

This is the kind of attitude that pisses me off.

It's always "Lets wait till next year" After last weeks display i would be sending the Team to Boot camp for "10 Days in the Cooler"

The are 8 games to go & we should Bust a Gut To win each one of them. Build a winning culture as well as teaching the kids.

Not Busting ya Guts for the jumper will achieve NOTHING....

I agree with this but i think the OP was trying to make the point that he will not necessarily be playing the best 22 players in their best positions for the remainder of the year because of the fact that they are trying to get games, time, continuity and development into the future players.

I believe that Bailey and co still expect every player to bust a gut at whatever their role is on the day, it's just that the role they play may be one for future plans rather than present needs.

[Bleasey as that 99]

One move I would dearly love to see happen is for Watts to play number 2 ruck for the rest of the year. He has the leap, the motor and the football brain to play this position for a year or two while Gawn is developing. It will get him involved in the game more, and make him play the defensive role more. It will also help him realise he needs to keep his footing!

How on earth will this help Watts' development as a key forward...which is what he is going tto be...he often looks confused on the field as it is, and thats without trying to turn him into a ruckmen.

I think you made some great points....however cannot agree with your take on Watts....

[Sir Why You Little 37,149]

Your post is interesting and i agree with much of it. Well written.

I agree with this but i think the OP was trying to make the point that he will not necessarily be playing the best 22 players in their best positions for the remainder of the year because of the fact that they are trying to get games, time, continuity and development into the future players.

I believe that Bailey and co still expect every player to bust a gut at whatever their role is on the day, it's just that the role they play may be one for future plans rather than present needs.

I have no problem with trying new players, trying players in new positions at all. That has nothing to do with attitude, attitude should always be at 110%

But this idea of Coasting home and not Busting a Gut does nothing but harm attitude.

I put up with it last year because there was a prize, but never again-We must have a winning attitude in every game, even if we get done.

Sure lets use these last 8 games wisely, but lets also instill a winning mentality into the young kids.

Sadly some of our older players seem set in their ways and will not change....

[Grandson of a gun 276]

I have no problem with trying new players, trying players in new positions at all. That has nothing to do with attitude, attitude should always be at 110%

But this idea of Coasting home and not Busting a Gut does nothing but harm attitude.

I put up with it last year because there was a prize, but never again-We must have a winning attitude in every game, even if we get done.

Sure lets use these last 8 games wisely, but lets also instill a winning mentality into the young kids.

Sadly some of our older players seem set in their ways and will not change....

Yes i agree with you. I don't believe in coasting home either. What i was trying to say was that the way i read it was that the OP was saying that they weren't going to be playing the best 22 in their best positions every week, instead trying to develop them for the future but still expecting 100% effort and determination to beat your opponent (and consequently win). Just think the OP used a poor choice of words to get his point across.

[Grandson of a gun 276]

How on earth will this help Watts' development as a key forward...which is what he is going tto be...he often looks confused on the field as it is, and thats without trying to turn him into a ruckmen.

I think you made some great points....however cannot agree with your take on Watts....

I agree also that it is no good sticking Watts in the ruck.

However

If we are playing a game where we are getting beaten easily and delivery into the forward line is bad (as was the case last week), i believe there is merit in playing Watts up on the wing to get him into the game taking marks and getting touches. That way he can learn to keep running and presenting and also playing defensively. If Melbourne start delivering the ball forward better then you can swing him back inside the forward 50 and hopefully the added confidence and possessions gets him back in the game and clunking marks and kicking goals.

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 389]

Without throwing yourself at the Ball & contest 100% you will never become a contender. It's all very well to learn and know the Theories But the Players and Club need to DO them.

Adelaide would have been waiting for a Timid Melbourne last week and that is what they got. And there is no excuse for that at all. EVER.

Because next year who is to say those doubts do no still exist, even with Training etc.

What use is Beamers Boxing Camp over the Break if not to toughen up players mentally???

But the players must carry that attitude onto the field or else the achieve nothing.

Until someone can eradicate that inner Timidity The MFC will always be perceived as a weak club-particularly on the road.

Yeah good point there, esp the Boxing Camp. I was just throwing out a different perspective but I doubt there's much evidence to support it