A TALE OF TWO CITIES - Match Preview and Team Selection

[Demonland 72,227]

A TALE OF TWO CITIES by JVM

The teams named for the capital cities of two great footballing states clash on Sunday in a battle to decide which of them will break the ice for season 2010.

MELBOURNE

The team that has won two wooden spoons on end and occupied last place on the ladder after its woeful display in round 1 came within a whisker of pulling off the biggest upset of the decade against Collingwood. This might not be such a big deal given that we're only two weeks into this brand new decade but it would have been welcomed not only by Melbourne fans but also by most of the football world (Magpie fans excepted) especially when the Demons led by 11 points with time on about to start.

However, the much hoped for but unexpected victory was not to be. The Pies conjured up a couple of unlikely goals and then a few dodgy umpiring decisions, a pass that went to the wrong target and a dropped mark all conspired to keep Melbourne winless. After playing with such relentless intensity for most of the game after a horror week, the result was nothing short of a tragedy.

There is only one thing that could possibly be a greater tragedy for the club and that would be if the team came out on Sunday and reverted to all of its old habits of 2007 to 2009 and into round 1, 2010.

The challenge facing Dean Bailey and his charges is to continue taking forward steps after last week's heartbreak. The message for the team from the city that represents the capital city of our great state will be don't look back!

THE GAME

Melbourne v. Adelaide at the MCG 11 April 2010 at 1.10pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 9 wins Adelaide 18 wins

At MCG Melbourne 5 wins Adelaide 5 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 4 wins Adelaide 10 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 Craig 2

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 1pm (live AEST)

RADIO ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $2.05 Adelaide to win $1.78

LAST TIME THEY MET Adelaide 7.9.51 d Melbourne 4.10.34, Round 5, 2009, at MCG

The game was as dull as the autumn twilight conditions that enveloped the MCG. The Crows were defensive and their hosts were super- defensive. By half time Adelaide had scored four goals to nil and the fans were bored to death. After that, the Demons made some forward thrusts and would have been right back in the game had they been able to convert a few easy chances in front of goal but in the end, it all petered out to a very forgettable 17-point Adelaide victory.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Warnock James Frawley Jamie Bennell

Half backs James McDonald Joel Macdonald Lynden Dunn

Centreline Rohan Bail Jack Trengove Aaron Davey

Half forwards Brad Green Colin Sylvia Cameron Bruce

Forwards Tom Scully Ricky Petterd Clint Bartram

Followers Mark Jamar Jack Grimes Brent Moloney

Interchange (from) Matthew Bate Kyle Cheney Colin Garland Nathan Jones Jordie McKenzie Michael Newton Jake Spencer

In Kyle Cheney Colin Garland Jake Spencer Colin Sylvia

Out James Strauss

ADELAIDE

Backs Michael Doughty Ben Rutten Jared Petrenko

Half backs Simon Goodwin Nathan Bock Richard Douglas

Centreline Tyson Edwards Bernie Vince David Mackay

Half forwards Jason Porplyzia Taylor Walker Patrick Dangerfield

Forwards Andrew McLeod Kurt Tippett Trent Hentschel

Followers Ivan Maric Scott Thompson Brent Reilly

Interchange (from) Tony Armstrong Brett Burton Myke Cook Chris Knights Shaun McKernan Chris Schmidt Scott Stevens

In Tony Armstrong Chris Knights Chris Schmidt Scott Stevens

Out James Sellar (hamstring) Will Young

New Chris Schmidt (Brisbane Lions)

ADELAIDE

Shortly before half time of its match against Collingwood in semi final week last year the Adelaide Football Club appeared destined for glory. The Crows held a lead of almost six goals and were enjoying a period of rare form having overwhelmed Carlton in the final round and then following that up with a demolition of Essendon in an elimination final. The prospect of the premiership cup returning to the City of Churches loomed as a distinct possibility. If ever a team that missed out on making the top four prior to the finals looked like making it all the way, it was the Crows.

Then, in the blink of an eye, everything changed. Collingwood came back and eventually wore down a tiring Adelaide team landing the killer blow in the final moments of the game.

Neil Craig's men seem not to have recovered. Their preseason was poor and punctuated by injury woes. They managed just one win (a get out of gaol last minute goal landing them a narrow victory on home territory against a depleted Melbourne team) in their four practice matches. Their two games to date in the AFL premiership season have been disasters. The team that represents the capital city of South Australia would like to look back to the first week in September of 2009 because it now is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

And that is the tale of the two cities and their football teams to date in 2010. On Sunday, one of them will feel the joy of winning again.

BREAKTHROUGH

Both clubs will be desperate for a breakthrough victory and despite the fact that Adelaide has won eight of its last ten encounters with Melbourne, the cards seem to be stacked against them this week.

The Crows will have had one day less recovery time than the Demons and they are coming off a difficult game played in near 30 degree heat at AAMI Stadium. Their confidence is low, they have injury and form problems and they don't often play at the MCG. Their perennial best player against Melbourne, Simon Goodwin who has averaged 28.3 disposals against them in their past three encounters, is under an injury cloud despite his bselection in the main side.

The problem from my point of view is that, on the rare occasions when Melbourne has seemingly been in a position to cause an upset against more experienced or better credentialled sides, it has let itself and its supporters down to the point where there has been no breakthrough; only heartbreak. So despite the fact that I like the way the Demons played last week and I like their spirit and their intensity, I'm not yet ready to get on their bandwagon. The danger man is Dangerfield.

I'm therefore predicting that Adelaide will somehow find a way to correct its poor form for the season to date and win by 7 points after a hard fought match.

[45HG 1,539]

MELBOURNE v ADELAIDE

Melbourne

B: Matthew Warnock, James Frawley, Jamie Bennell

HB: James McDonald, Joel Macdonald, Lynden Dunn

C: Rohan Bail, Jackson Trengove, Aaron Davey

HF: Brad Green, Colin Sylvia, Cameron Bruce

F: Tom Scully, Ricky Petterd, Clint Bartram

Foll: Mark Jamar, Jack Grimes, Brent Moloney

I/C (from): Colin Garland, Jordie McKenzie, Nathan Jones, Matthew Bate, Kyle Cheney, Jake Spencer, Michael Newton

In: Garland, Sylvia, Spencer, Cheney

Out: James Strauss

Adelaide

B: Michael Doughty, Ben Rutten, Jared Petrenko

HB: Simon Goodwin, Nathan Bock, Richard Douglas

C: Tyson Edwards, Bernie Vince, David Mackay

HF: Jason Porplyzia, Taylor Walker, Patrick Dangerfield

F: Andrew McLeod, Kurt Tippett, Trent Hentschel

Foll: Ivan Maric, Scott Thompson, Brent Reilly

I/C (from): Myke Cook, Chris Knights, Brett Burton, Scott Stevens, Shaun McKernan, Tony Armstrong, Chris Schmidt

In: Knights, McKernan, Armstrong, Stevens, Schmidt

Out: James Sellar (hamstring), Will Young

New: Chris Schmidt (Brisbane Lions)

Garland and Sylvia in, Strauss out.

Not sure Garland will stay in and I'm not sure I'm thrilled with Strauss beign outed - but I assume the FD believe he needs to work on his game at Casey.

Knights in is a big one for them.

Edited April 8, 2010 by 45HG16

[Inner Demon 1]

IN: Sylvia, Garland, Cheney, Spencer

OUT: Strauss

[timD 994]

newton?

[The Great Pretender 463]

newton?

Michael - named on the extended interchange bench.

Bert - getting fitted out for a new wig.

[H_T 3,049]

Bit surprised with the Strauss omission. Thought he could learn more and adjust more at AFL level, not VFL. Anyway, he has a taste for it now. Time to work harder.

I thought Bartram is lucky to be named on the field.

[big tuna 0]

I can't see them dropping McKenzie or Jones & if Garland is fit then he would be a very handy inclusion. Last spot should go to Newton (even though I am not a big fan of his) just to give Jamar a break in the ruck like last week. Plus they need to give him at least another 2-3 weeks to get his confidence up and let him prove his worth up forward. This would let Bate go back and get plenty of touches and a few goals under his belt at Casey.

[Chook 15,013]

Bit surprised with the Strauss omission. Thought he could learn more and adjust more at AFL level, not VFL. Anyway, he has a taste for it now. Time to work harder.

I thought Bartram is lucky to be named on the field.

Looks like that oval is in need of a bit of grass, don't you think?

[Summer Blease 0]

Was Jones named on the bench round 1? I cannot remember; he always starts on the bench.

I would not be surprised if he was dropped- McKenzie IN..... I can't actually decide who else makes it... Not one of those other inclusions scream out for selection..Form and fitness issues. Hard one to predict...

I will be [censored] if Newton gets dropped.. This would be the ultimate definition of counter-productive...

[DirtyDees DDC 176]

Great to see Garland get selected on the bench. I suspect he may serve another week at Casey to give him further match practice but at least the signs are good. People can finally stop asking him about THAT foot.

Interesting to note that Rivers wasn't selected. I want to see if he's picked for Casey on Saturday night. Maybe he's still on the short term injury list.

The forward line as selected looks a bit short. This may be a tactic but i believe they have to play either Spencer or Newton as a backup to Jamar. I'll bet on Newton. He's a better option on the forward line than Spencer, and that's where he will spend most of the match.

I can't see Jones or McKenzie missing out, which leaves Bate and Cheney for the final position. It's been a while since Bate was dropped. Perhaps the club is sending him the message that while his talent is wanted, his position in the side is not automatic. I think they'll give him another chance this weekend.

So the side that will beat Adelaide by 7 goals to 4 on Sunday may look like this:

Melbourne Round 3 Squad

Backs: Warnock, Frawley, Bennell

Half backs: McDonald, MacDonald, Dunn

Centreline: Bail, Trengove, Davey

Half forwards: Green, Sylvia, Bruce

Forwards: Scully, Petterd, Bartram

Followers: Jamar, Grimes, Moloney

I/C: McKenzie,Jones,Newton, Bate.

[Daz's Dee's 113]

Whats up with Martin?? is he injured or just cant make the side?

[Chook 15,013]

Whats up with Martin?? is he injured or just cant make the side?

Can't make the side. Newton has him covered for forward/ruck replacement, and our backline is set, so he doesn't seem to have a position to play. Newton was serviceable in a side that all but won, so I think the FD are just rewarding a team for their effort, and don't want to make too many changes - which I would agree with.

[btdemon 482]

We're not on free to air telly AGAIN!!! For the third week in a row. Sheesh!

[RalphiusMaximus 6,054]

We're not on free to air telly AGAIN!!! For the third week in a row. Sheesh!

AFL don't like to do Melbourne favours. They gave us 5 rounds at the 'G and thought that was enough for one year.

[45HG 1,539]

Sorry bt, but we're not on free to air until Round 6.

Other free to air games ar 7, 10, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19 and 20.

What drives me mental about that (aside from the pitifuly small amount of games we get on free to air) is that rounds 7, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19 and 20 are all MCG matches which could affect our attendances and also basically means that when we play interstate, our members without access to foxtel never get the chance to see it (a blessing sometimes I suppose).

[H_T 3,049]

Adelaide will be primed for this match. They've copped a flogging in the media over there, just as we did last week.

Melbourne must not be satisfied with last week's effort, it simply wasn't good enough because it didn't guarantee the 4 points (a win), and they should have been told that. They must improve on that and raise the bar in all facets of the game.

I expect inconsistent showings from such a young group of players, it would not surprise me in the least if there were a drop off in areas against Adelaide compared to last week. I hope there isn't as such.

Sydney beat Adelaide's zone set up consistently and virtually owned the corridor last start, the Crows will still miss Johncock and Melbourne will welcome back Sylvia. I expect a better showing from the likes of Thompson, Vince & Tippett this week. Although fingers crossed, Melbourne keeps them quiet along with Dangerfield.

Should be a close match, head rules the heart, Adelaide by 11 points.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

What are the odds:

Forecast for Sunday

Cloudy. Showers, more frequent over southern and eastern suburbs and the chance of thunderstorms. Winds northwesterly averaging up to 35 km/h tending west to northwesterly up to 50 km/h around dawn.

CityShowers. Windy. Min15 Max19

After 4 consecutive months where the maximum temperatures have been at least 20 degrees, what are the odds that the first day to dip below 20 will be when Melbourne plays an interstate club?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Sorry bt, but we're not on free to air until Round 6.

Other free to air games ar 7, 10, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19 and 20.

What drives me mental about that (aside from the pitifuly small amount of games we get on free to air) is that rounds 7, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19 and 20 are all MCG matches which could affect our attendances and also basically means that when we play interstate, our members without access to foxtel never get the chance to see it (a blessing sometimes I suppose).

I don't understand you people, why don't you just go to the pub? That's what i did for non-vic games before I had fox, wasn't an issue at all

At home would be better, but sometimes it's good at the pub because there is a bit of a crew there of fellow supporters, can be a really good atmosphere

[45HG 1,539]

I don't understand you people, why don't you just go to the pub? That's what i did for non-vic games before I had fox, wasn't an issue at all

At home would be better, but sometimes it's good at the pub because there is a bit of a crew there of fellow supporters, can be a really good atmosphere

You people? I have foxtel and watch at home.

So you don't think our lack of tv matches has any impact on supporters being able to see our games?

[Chook 15,013]

I don't understand you people, why don't you just go to the pub?

There'd probably be a few people here who aren't even old enough to go to the pub. But for those of us who can, it's worth it if you can find a good one to go to.

[H_T 3,049]

What are the odds:

Forecast for Sunday

Cloudy. Showers, more frequent over southern and eastern suburbs and the chance of thunderstorms. Winds northwesterly averaging up to 35 km/h tending west to northwesterly up to 50 km/h around dawn.

CityShowers. Windy. Min15 Max19

After 4 consecutive months where the maximum temperatures have been at least 20 degrees, what are the odds that the first day to dip below 20 will be when Melbourne plays an interstate club?

2-1.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

It just gets worse:

Forecast for Sunday

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms with hail possible from the late morning until late afternoon, mainly over bayside suburbs. Winds west to northwesterly averaging up to 45 km/h tending west to southwesterly up to 50 km/h by the afternoon.

City Showers. Windy. Min15 Max18

Now there's gonna be thunderstorms, hail, wind, coldness. Great.

Sigh...

[Little Goffy 14,579]

I'm staring at the teams and the match ups and I honestly think we have them better covered.

They've gone with a very tall-style forward line, which we have covered anyway. Warnock will be frankly thrilled to have opponents like Hentschel and Scott Stevens who can't outrun him, for instance.

In contrast we have a highly mobile forward line of players who have often played midfield and running roles. You can be sure Rutten wont be playing 100% time this week! The extra phyiscal 'density' of Rutten and Bock wont be decisive because there wont be any great need to wrestle for marks - most marks in our 50 will be on a lead or just from running around like crazy people when the ball is in the area.

In other words, we'll have more runners right across the ground, without conceding a decisive height difference. If the weather stays dry we might see Garland come in for Bartram, but still have a major overall advantage on the km we can put out there.

Some Crows are likely to win their contest comfortably, such as our routine nemesis Goodwin and the memorably 'homesick' Thompson, but Adelaide will be leaving too much to too few and wont have an overall fitness advantage - both these things are debilitating problems for a game plan that relies on an even, team-drilled performance.

The Demons will go into this game believing that they will win even if they trail most of the day, so long as they sustain a high level of effort and force the crows to keep up until they just can't.

Two days ago I thought it was just a tip from the heart, my first of a new era after three years of just accepting that good sense says no. But the more I've looked at the game, the lists and the form, the more I can't find a reason why Adelaide would win.

Demons by 15 points.

(by fifteen points I mean 2 goals three behinds - not 15 points in the manner of the Magpies, whose confidence and concentration would appear to have been mysteriously shattered)

[Ned 156]

I'm staring at the teams and the match ups and I honestly think we have them better covered.

They've gone with a very tall-style forward line, which we have covered anyway. Warnock will be frankly thrilled to have opponents like Hentschel and Scott Stevens who can't outrun him, for instance.

In contrast we have a highly mobile forward line of players who have often played midfield and running roles. You can be sure Rutten wont be playing 100% time this week! The extra phyiscal 'density' of Rutten and Bock wont be decisive because there wont be any great need to wrestle for marks - most marks in our 50 will be on a lead or just from running around like crazy people when the ball is in the area.

In other words, we'll have more runners right across the ground, without conceding a decisive height difference. If the weather stays dry we might see Garland come in for Bartram, but still have a major overall advantage on the km we can put out there.

Some Crows are likely to win their contest comfortably, such as our routine nemesis Goodwin and the memorably 'homesick' Thompson, but Adelaide will be leaving too much to too few and wont have an overall fitness advantage - both these things are debilitating problems for a game plan that relies on an even, team-drilled performance.

The Demons will go into this game believing that they will win even if they trail most of the day, so long as they sustain a high level of effort and force the crows to keep up until they just can't.

Two days ago I thought it was just a tip from the heart, my first of a new era after three years of just accepting that good sense says no. But the more I've looked at the game, the lists and the form, the more I can't find a reason why Adelaide would win.

Demons by 15 points.

(by fifteen points I mean 2 goals three behinds - not 15 points in the manner of the Magpies, whose confidence and concentration would appear to have been mysteriously shattered)

Very astute observations there LG and good call on the final result!