Goalkicking Analysis & Identification

[H_T 3,047]

The last time the Melbourne Football Club had a strong forward line was back in 1998 when we had Garry Lyon, David Neitz, David Schwarz and Jeff Farmer. It took us all the way to a Preliminary Final against the Kangaroos (North Melbourne fc). It's also when we had a good run of injuries, Lyon was getting through the season (just), Schwarz was over his knee but no where near 100% (ie '94 form).

That year 1998:-

Garry Lyon - 40 goals

Jeff Farmer - 47 goals

David Neitz - 33 goals

David Schwarz - 29 goals

Accumulating - 149 goals between 4. Avg. ~35 each.

and we even had: -

J.White - 17 goals

S.Smith - 15 goals

R.Robertson - 15 goals

T.Viney - 15 goals

But that was then. What about beyond 2009 for the Melbournefc?

Sure the game has changed a deal since then. Looking at our 2009 list and going forward we need goal kickers. The list is young and exciting and the identification of the future is still in progress. Already we've seen some glimpses of the future in Jurrah, Watts, Wonaeamirri, Jetta.

Who else of the current crop will continue to improve and be identified as go to men for goal kicking. Bate? Sylvia? Miller? Green? Morton? Or will it come in the form of new recruits we haven't yet seen in a Mfc guernsey?

Below is a list of the 'current' melbournefc list. With it their Games (Career/2009) and Goals (Career/2009) and their Averages for each.

It's a sorry sight the averages column in comparison to other superior clubs such as St.Kilda & Geelong and their averages, because clearly they're more mature and the score is on the board so to speak.

* Taken from Mfc Player List on Melbournfc.com.au (Yes, they've already delisted Robbo, Wheatley, Whelan)

*Doesn't include rookies*

Jurrah heads the list with an average of 2.2 , not bad considering he's played just 9 games. Tells us a story doesn't it. There is alot of work still to be done.

Can you identify the goalkickers on the current list going forward? Discuss. And what kind of averages do you think our forwards should aspire to, or more simply what number of goals can you expect of certain players?

Going forward:

My A Team forwards:

L.Jurrah

A.Wonaeamirri

B.Green

J.Watts

My half forward/midfielder decent contributors:

C.Sylvia

C.Morton

A.Davey

M.Bate

My other 'pinch hitters':

N.Jetta

P.Petterd

L.Dunn

M.Jamar

A.Maric

J.Grimes

My yet to be determined goalkickers:

C.Garland

S.Martin

S.Blease

My Unsure on future going forward:

M.Newton

B.Miller

My new recruit possibilities identification?:

J.Trengove/A.Morabito

Going forward I want the A Team to score the bulk of my goals. Over 120 between the four is the aim in the future. I want my midfielders/half forwards to contribute over 15-20 goals each in a season and I want pinch hitters to come in and do the job when required.

Edited September 13, 2009 by High Tower

[Hobbits's 17]

Jurrah and Watts have the best goalkicking ability technique wise along with wona who is a good kick also. Green and Sylvia are accurate. Petterd kicks helicopters, Newtons kicking is flawed and Grimes will play midfield but has shown he can kick goals on the run straight through the middle. Bate does ok but 50/50 maybe on set shots unless. With a better midfield and no positional moves averages will improve. at least we would like it too. Need a bigger presence maybe a Butcher instead at draft time.

[LITTLE STINGA 1]

I would add Bruce to the pinch hitters. Our midfielders must kick more goals. Green and Sylvia are the only midfielders averaging a goal a game this year no one else has got even close.

[Fugazi 53]

The A List is pretty much spot on. I'd like to see Green and/or Davey play more of a role up forward next year as well. I'm a fan of Bate and I would really like to see him take the next step and contribute some more goals. I'm also not convinced on Miller or Newton. You just don't know what they are going to do in front of goal half the time.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

I reckon our forwards during the Neitz-Robbo years weren't too bad either. With Neitz good for 60+, Robbo 40+ and Davey in 2004 straight into the action... Around this time we were making finals pretty regularly, and that was with no-one highly rated in either the midfield or defence.

I'd be comfortable with 2 big-name trustworthy players in the forward-line... Jurrah and Watts being a good example. If they offer more than Lyon and Farmer (47 and 40 in your example), say 60 and 50 goals... then that takes pressure of the Sylvias, Wonnas, Petterds, Greens, Bruces, Marics etc etc. The problem being when one is in bad form, or injured you lose a lot of scoring power.

Just thinking, does anyone reckon Jurrah can do a Farmer circa 2000 one day and kick 90 in a year? 8 in a game/half? (was it nine?) If so, does anyone reckon he can do it regularly?

[Hobbits's 17]

Yeah i reckon he has that X factor and will be a freak. would not surprise me in the slightest to see him kick 8 or even ten goals in a few games. he will only get better. would of kicked 6 had he not been taken from ground or moved by DB against saints.

[Maric Legend 0]

I'd also throw in Maric as hopefully being able to achieve 20-30 goals a year, depending on his given role. Hopefully he can get his fitness up.

[rpfc 28,430]

Bate, Jurrah, Green, and Sylvia are all capable of kicking 40 goals in 2010. Watts, Davey, Maric, Petterd, Wonaeamirri, Jetta, and Jamar are all capable of kicking 20 goals in 2010 (permitting their roles allow time forward).

I don't know the make up of who will kick the goals but I do believe we are capable of kicking 15 goals agianst most teams.

[DEES 0]

I'd also throw in Maric as hopefully being able to achieve 20-30 goals a year, depending on his given role. Hopefully he can get his fitness up.

agree with your call, i can see maric becoming a porplyzia type of player. with improved fitness and delivery from our mids he could even get up to the 50 mark. hope he has a big pre season and can cement his spot in the team next year.

[Hannabal 4]

Petterd kicks helicopters

He does, but interestingly he kicked 19.8 this year and was a very steady set shot. He's a relatively poor kick, but they nearly always seemed to go through. Where I stand in the MCC we often commented on it.

[Great Sage 101]

He does, but interestingly he kicked 19.8 this year and was a very steady set shot. He's a relatively poor kick, but they nearly always seemed to go through. Where I stand in the MCC we often commented on it.

He took quite a few marks close to goal this season which would have helped his average.

[Hannabal 4]

He took quite a few marks close to goal this season which would have helped his average.

30 metres out they've still got to be kicked.

[Tatu 416]

I reckon our forwards during the Neitz-Robbo years weren't too bad either. With Neitz good for 60+, Robbo 40+ and Davey in 2004 straight into the action... Around this time we were making finals pretty regularly, and that was with no-one highly rated in either the midfield or defence.

I'd be comfortable with 2 big-name trustworthy players in the forward-line... Jurrah and Watts being a good example. If they offer more than Lyon and Farmer (47 and 40 in your example), say 60 and 50 goals... then that takes pressure of the Sylvias, Wonnas, Petterds, Greens, Bruces, Marics etc etc. The problem being when one is in bad form, or injured you lose a lot of scoring power.

Just thinking, does anyone reckon Jurrah can do a Farmer circa 2000 one day and kick 90 in a year? 8 in a game/half? (was it nine?) If so, does anyone reckon he can do it regularly?

When he peaks Jurrah will be better than Farmer (2000).

He could be the first MFC player to kick 100.

Edited September 12, 2009 by tatu

[DeeSpencer 25,709]

When you win games you kick more goals!

Starting forward line

HF: Watts Bate Sylvia

FF: Green Jurrah Petterd

Int: Wonaeamirri or Maric

This year we averaged 11.4 goals a game, I think we can improve that to 13 next year (which puts you middle of the ladder with a decent defence and winning your share of tight games).

So if your 7 forwards kick an average 8.5 goals a week (midfield and defence chipping in for 4.5) - that gives you 187 goals to go around.

Jurrah - 40 goals

Green - 30

Bate - 25

Sylvia - 25

Wona - 25

Petterd - 20

Watts (15 games) - 16

Miller/Newton (7 games) - 6

The next step would be getting more goals out of Watts and Jurrah, plus more general improvement across the team to get more inside 50's. Then you get 2 players kicking 50+ and about 4 players chipping in for 30-50 goal.

[H_T 3,047]

Dappa Dan, in answer to your questions regarding Jurrah. All being well I think after a full pre-season, I think we can expect the unexpected. I'm not being smart in saying that. He is definitely capable of some big bags. Being left up forward and not taken from the ground during experimentation or positional changes he could have kicked quite a few more. At least an average of over 3.0 per game from his 9 games IMO.

Round 22, as Grimes to Watts pointed out he could have easily had 6. He missed two early ones too. And when he leads outside 50 and penetrates inside 50 he can do damage with his kicking as 45h16 posted a link to the pass that hit Miller for the first goal of the game. Genius. He threaded that through an eye of a needle. The other forwards will be delighted what is to come.

With an improved midfield and more inside 50 entries.............it's simply mouth watering!

Edited September 12, 2009 by High Tower

[Rogue 585]

He does, but interestingly he kicked 19.8 this year

Probably flattered by the times where he hasn't made the difference/missed everything from 40+, but it's still a surprisingly positive return.

[Rogue 585]

IMO this shows we need to find some good tall prospects. It seems like there won't be anyone worth taking as a KPF in the top two though, so I'm not sure where we're going to find one.

It's very hard to get a good KPF via a trade and it's also quite hard (relatively speaking) to find a KPF later in the draft.

Add this to the fact that KPFs take a long time to develop and future drafts are going to be pillaged by GC/WS and it looks somewhat bleak if you think we're short talls.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

When he peaks Jurrah will be better than Farmer (2000).

He could be the first MFC player to kick 100.

Melbourne fans = keeping a lid on it nicely.

Dappa Dan, in answer to your questions regarding Jurrah. All being well I think after a full pre-season, I think we can expect the unexpected. I'm not being smart in saying that. He is definitely capable of some big bags. Being left up forward and not taken from the ground during experimentation or positional changes he could have kicked quite a few more. At least an average of over 3.0 per game from his 9 games IMO.

Round 22, as Grimes to Watts pointed out he could have easily had 6. He missed two early ones too. And when he leads outside 50 and penetrates inside 50 he can do damage with his kicking as 45h16 posted a link to the pass that hit Miller for the first goal of the game. Genius. He threaded that through an eye of a needle. The other forwards will be delighted what is to come.

With an improved midfield and more inside 50 entries.............it's simply mouth watering!

No doubt. I just hope we don't get ahead of ourselves. I mean, how many players have kicked 4, with opportunities to kick 6 or kicked 6 with the opportunity to kick 8? etc etc. There is absolutely no doubting his talent. But there was no doubting Jackovich's, Farmer's, Schwarta's talent. Even if his head stays screwed on and he doesn't want to go home. And even if he avoids trade or injury, or form issues, or fatigue... there's on-field stuff he's not dealt with yet. What if we recruited another big tall, and he had to fit in with Watts and, say, Butcher for example? Will he still threaten to kick 8 a game?

[LITTLE STINGA 1]

IMO this shows we need to find some good tall prospects. It seems like there won't be anyone worth taking as a KPF in the top two though, so I'm not sure where we're going to find one.

It's very hard to get a good KPF via a trade and it's also quite hard (relatively speaking) to find a KPF later in the draft.

Add this to the fact that KPFs take a long time to develop and future drafts are going to be pillaged by GC/WS and it looks somewhat bleak if you think we're short talls.

I think it is very hard to find a key forward full stop. With the way Jurrah is going it should take the pressure off Watts. We clearly will be a team that will need an even contribution of goal kickers for years to come.

[H_T 3,047]

No doubt. I just hope we don't get ahead of ourselves. I mean, how many players have kicked 4, with opportunities to kick 6 or kicked 6 with the opportunity to kick 8? etc etc. There is absolutely no doubting his talent. But there was no doubting Jackovich's, Farmer's, Schwarta's talent. Even if his head stays screwed on and he doesn't want to go home. And even if he avoids trade or injury, or form issues, or fatigue... there's on-field stuff he's not dealt with yet. What if we recruited another big tall, and he had to fit in with Watts and, say, Butcher for example? Will he still threaten to kick 8 a game?

If we recruited a Key forward such as Butcher, and with Watts there, Jurrah could still be capable of kicking quite a number of goals. In essence we'd be pretty hard to match up on I'd imagine. In fact all three would benefit. Much like a bygone era with Lyon, Ox and Neita.

I think it is very hard to find a key forward full stop. With the way Jurrah is going it should take the pressure off Watts. We clearly will be a team that will need an even contribution of goal kickers for years to come.

Agree and finding a key forward that moulds into an 'elite' key forward is very rare - let alone landing one - it's an even greater task.

We will need an even spread of goal kickers, but I still harbour some hope to be able to land someone like a Kurt Tippett....one day.

[Hobbits's 17]

We will need an even spread of goal kickers, but I still harbour some hope to be able to land someone like a Kurt Tippett....one day.

If we land Kurt Tippett, all our prayers will be answered. Apart from a ruck that can kick goals!

[Akum 2,660]

If we recruited a Key forward such as Butcher, and with Watts there, Jurrah could still be capable of kicking quite a number of goals. In essence we'd be pretty hard to match up on I'd imagine. In fact all three would benefit. Much like a bygone era with Lyon, Ox and Neita.

Agree and finding a key forward that moulds into an 'elite' key forward is very rare - let alone landing one - it's an even greater task.

We will need an even spread of goal kickers, but I still harbour some hope to be able to land someone like a Kurt Tippett....one day.

My reservation about having a Kurt Tippett type is that it makes the midfielders think they can just bomb it high every time. That will work well against sides without an above-average tall defender, but will cost you against top teams as it did on Saturday. Adelaide vs Collingwood was a textbook example of the futility of the high bomb into the forward line against a half-decent defence despite almost complete midfield dominance.

All the top big forwards - Riewoldt, J. Brown, Fev, Buddy etc etc - get more of their marks & goals from leads than any other way, because it's by far the most reliable high-percentage way to get the ball to a forward within kicking distance. In fact, it's so reliable (i.e. boring!) that marks-&-goals-on-leads rarely make the highlights reel, unlike the freak snaps or specky marks which get highlighted precisely because they're so infrequent.

Our forward line needs to have a variety of ways to goal, majoring on leading forwards & running goals. My problem with a 200cm big-marking forward, even one as good as Tippett or Kosi, is that the team tends to structure itself around long bombs. This works well against lesser opponents, but is the easiest method to get shut down by good defences in finals.

[Hobbits's 17]

My reservation about having a Kurt Tippett type is that it makes the midfielders think they can just bomb it high every time. That will work well against sides without an above-average tall defender, but will cost you against top teams as it did on Saturday. Adelaide vs Collingwood was a textbook example of the futility of the high bomb into the forward line against a half-decent defence despite almost complete midfield dominance.

All the top big forwards - Riewoldt, J. Brown, Fev, Buddy etc etc - get more of their marks & goals from leads than any other way, because it's by far the most reliable high-percentage way to get the ball to a forward within kicking distance. In fact, it's so reliable (i.e. boring!) that marks-&-goals-on-leads rarely make the highlights reel, unlike the freak snaps or specky marks which get highlighted precisely because they're so infrequent.

Our forward line needs to have a variety of ways to goal, majoring on leading forwards & running goals. My problem with a 200cm big-marking forward, even one as good as Tippett or Kosi, is that the team tends to structure itself around long bombs. This works well against lesser opponents, but is the easiest method to get shut down by good defences in finals.

But the big forwards also take contested marks closer to goal, as well as on the lead. I still think there is plenty of fair share of marks taken close to the goal square vicinity. They don't necessarily have to make the highlights reel.

We need a big body for variation, much like st.kilda do with roo and kosi and the crows with Tippett. Why do you think the Cats were hell bent on getting Ottens back.

[Akum 2,660]

This year we averaged 11.4 goals a game, I think we can improve that to 13 next year (which puts you middle of the ladder with a decent defence and winning your share of tight games).

I'd love to know what our average was for inside-50s per game. I bet we were 16th by a long way, but our goals-per-inside-50s ratio probably wasn't too bad. If we can improve our inside-50s by 1/4 with a better midfield next year, we could get closer to 15 goals per game, which would be right up there.

I think our forwards do quite well, but their supply is far too limited. What I like about our forward line is that we do have a variety of ways to goal, and that's something we should keep. It's just that if the supply doesn't improve, it won't matter what we do to the forward line. We will only kick scores that are competitive against top teams when we get a competitive amount of inside-50s.

[Pello 1]

I'd love to know what our average was for inside-50s per game. I bet we were 16th by a long way, but our goals-per-inside-50s ratio probably wasn't too bad. If we can improve our inside-50s by 1/4 with a better midfield next year, we could get closer to 15 goals per game, which would be right up there.

I think our forwards do quite well, but their supply is far too limited. What I like about our forward line is that we do have a variety of ways to goal, and that's something we should keep. It's just that if the supply doesn't improve, it won't matter what we do to the forward line. We will only kick scores that are competitive against top teams when we get a competitive amount of inside-50s.

Hence why it is imperative we draft two midfielders with our first two picks. The Brisbane Lions have 2 of the best key forwards in the game but couldn't get past week 2 of the finals because their midfield has lost its effectiveness from earlier this decade.

You can develop all sorts of plans and strategies about getting the ball to your forwards and I am sure DB will be working on that over summer. However, a very simple way to score more is to get it inside 50 more. You may end up having a lower strike rate but overall you will score more.