Colin Wisbey's Top 40 (well almost)

[alpha33 304]

Colin Wisbey is a well respected watcher of draft talent and I understand he provides his views on a professional basis to some clubs. Some of his past reports have appeared on Demonland but these days he restricts himself mainly to Collingwood and West Coast profiles on Extreme Black & White once after the drafts are over. Here's his top 40 draft picks from http://forums.magpies.net/hotrod/ (players presumably not selected were omitted) -

... this year, I excluded from my top 40 most players I would not draft myself (even some players I expected to get drafted relatively early). This was a year in which I doubt even the top 20 from any club would be very similar to the top 20 from any other club. With the odd exception, most kids I ranked earlier than I expected them to go were there mainly because of attractive decison-making / usage. Some were ranked early based on upside compared to the alternatives. Most of the "touted" draftees who didn't make my top 40 or so were kids I viewed as being dodgy decison-makers / users and/or kids for whom I struggled to identify an AFL role they might be capable of "owning".

1. NAITANUI, Nicholas (2 WCE)

2. SWIFT, Tom (20 WCE)

3. WATTS, Jack (1 MEL)

4. HILL, Stephen (3 FRE)

5. YARRAN, Chris (6 CAR)

6. RICH, Daniel (7 BRI)

7. LYNCH, Tom (13 STK)

8. HARTLETT, Hamish (4 POR)

9. HURLEY, Michael (5 ESS)

10. ZIEBELL, Jack (9 KAN)

11. BLIGHT, Jarrad (45 COL)

12. ROBINSON, Mitch (40 CAR)

13. ROUGHEAD, Jordan (31 WBD)

14. VICKERY, Tyrone (8 RIC)

15. BROADBENT, Matthew (38 POR)

16. SUBAN, Nick (24 FRE)

17. MCKERNAN, Shaun (28 ADE)

18. STRAUSS, James (19 MEL)

19. SHUEY, Luke (18 WCE)

20. BROWN, Mitchell (15 GEE)

21. STILL, Michael (55 ESS)

22. REDDEN, Jarrad (54 POR)

23. SMITH, Alistair (62 STK)

24. SIDEBOTTOM, Steele (11 COL)

25. O'KEEFFE, Rhys (65 CAR)

26. TRENGOVE, Jackson (22 POR)

27. SHIELS, Liam (34 HAW)

28. PEARCE, Clancee (R48 FRE)

29. DAWSON, Glenn (66 POR)

30. ROCKLIFF, Tom (P 5 BRI)

32. HANNEBERY, Dan (30 SYD)

33. JETTA, Neville (51 MEL)

35. SCHOENMAKERS, Ryan (16 HAW)

36. WEADON, Bryn (R31 GEE)

37. SMITH, Ashley (36 WCE)

38. HEYNE, Nicholas (48 STK)

40. CAHILL, Paul (74 STK)

Note: no Sam Blease

[Yencks 8]

no way i recon tom lynch at pick 7

[LeBron James 41]

While i respect that he obviously puts alot of work into his opinions, history has proven him to be wrong alot, which is why you hear him copping alot of [censored] on other sites.

If i remember correctly Wisbey was harping on about how Melbourne completely [censored] up by picking McLean, he rated him late 30's in 2003 draft.

I can't believe that he has Swift that high after playing little U18 football and no Blease. But good on him for putting the effort in.

[mo64 5,597]

While i respect that he obviously puts alot of work into his opinions, history has proven him to be wrong alot, which is why you hear him copping alot of [censored] on other sites.

If i remember correctly Wisbey was harping on about how Melbourne completely [censored] up by picking McLean, he rated him late 30's in 2003 draft.

I can't believe that he has Swift that high after playing little U18 football and no Blease. But good on him for putting the effort in.

History could prove every recruiting manager wrong, so why would Wisbey be any different.

Wisbey has a set criteria that he believes makes an AFL footballer, but as we know, recruiting is an inexact science. As for his ratings of Swift and Blease, only time will tell, so it's no use debating whether he's right or wrong.

Personally, I used to enjoy reading his analysis of potential draftees.

[alpha33 304]

FWIW here's his top 55 from last year -

1 . COTCHIN, Trent (2 RIC)

2 . KREUZER, Matthew (1 CAR)

3 . MYERS, David (6 ESS)

4 . MASTEN, Chris (3 WCE)

5 . RIOLI, Cyril (12 HAW)

6 . VESZPREMI, Patrick (11 SYD)

7 . HENDERSON, Lachlan (8 BRI)

8 . MARIC, Addam (21 MEL)

9 . EBERT, Bradley (13 WCE)

10 . MEREDITH, Brett (26 SYD)

11 . MCCARTHY, John (31 COL)

12 . MOTLOP, Marlon (28 POR)

13 . PEARS, Tayte (23 ESS)

14 . MCNAMARA, Tom (66 MEL)

15 . GARLETT, Cruize (R30 KAN)

16 . MORTON, Cale (4 MEL)

17 . WARD, Callan (19 WBD)

18 . PETRENKO, Jared (R25 ADE)

19 . GREENWOOD, Levi (32 KAN)

20 . JACKY, Jarrhan (30 ADE)

21 . MCEVOY, Ben (9 STK)

22 . TAYLOR, Harry (17 GEE)

24 . GOURDIS, David (P 1 RIC)

25 . GRIMES, Jack (14 MEL)

26 . SELWOOD, Scott (22 WCE)

27 . ELLARD, David (R34 CAR)

28 . WHITECROSS, Brendan (29 HAW)

29 . MCGINNITY, Patrick (P 7 WCE)

30 . RANCE, Alex (18 RIC)

31 . PALMER, Rhys (7 FRE)

32 . O'KEEFE, Guy (63 WBD)

33 . JOSEPH, Aaron (R 2 CAR)

35 . DANGERFIELD, Patrick (10 ADE)

36 . FARMER, Mitchell (49 POR)

37 . DANIHER, Darcy (39 ESS)

38 . ARMFIELD, Dennis (46 CAR)

39 . GRANT, Jarrad (5 WBD)

40 . OTTEN, Andy (27 ADE)

41 . CHENEY, Kyle (53 MEL)

42 . CHIVERS, Glenn (R 8 STK)

43 . BARHAM, Jaxon (61 COL)

45 . TARRANT, Robert (15 KAN)

47 . SANDILANDS, Hugh (R11 HAW)

48 . MCKENNA, Dan (50 GEE)

52 . BIRD, Craig (59 SYD)

53 . REID, Sam (35 WBD)

55 . BROWNE, Steven (36 CAR)

[Eastie Boyz 0]

While i respect that he obviously puts alot of work into his opinions, history has proven him to be wrong alot, which is why you hear him copping alot of [censored] on other sites.

If i remember correctly Wisbey was harping on about how Melbourne completely [censored] up by picking McLean, he rated him late 30's in 2003 draft.

I can't believe that he has Swift that high after playing little U18 football and no Blease. But good on him for putting the effort in.

Drafting players has little to do with what they've done at under 18 level and everything to do with what they're capable of doing at AFL level.

Also, whereabouts are his explanations for each player or whatever cos I can't find them!

[LeBron James 41]

Drafting players has little to do with what they've done at under 18 level and everything to do with what they're capable of doing at AFL level.

How can you know what he is capable of at AFL level without playing U18's? There are many players that dominate U16 level only to go backwards at U18 level and not be drafted.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Swift in his career.

And he only did full profiles for the Collingwood and WCE draftees, he hasn't released them all yet.

BTW: Cale morton at 16^^ bwahahaha.

[Roger Mellie 3,900]

No Blease in the top 40

[Hulett Packard III 166]

FWIW here's his top 55 from last year -

1 . COTCHIN, Trent (2 RIC)

2 . KREUZER, Matthew (1 CAR)

3 . MYERS, David (6 ESS)

4 . MASTEN, Chris (3 WCE)

5 . RIOLI, Cyril (12 HAW)

6 . VESZPREMI, Patrick (11 SYD)

7 . HENDERSON, Lachlan (8 BRI)

8 . MARIC, Addam (21 MEL)

9 . EBERT, Bradley (13 WCE)

10 . MEREDITH, Brett (26 SYD)

11 . MCCARTHY, John (31 COL)

12 . MOTLOP, Marlon (28 POR)

13 . PEARS, Tayte (23 ESS)

14 . MCNAMARA, Tom (66 MEL)

15 . GARLETT, Cruize (R30 KAN)

16 . MORTON, Cale (4 MEL)

17 . WARD, Callan (19 WBD)

18 . PETRENKO, Jared (R25 ADE)

19 . GREENWOOD, Levi (32 KAN)

20 . JACKY, Jarrhan (30 ADE)

21 . MCEVOY, Ben (9 STK)

22 . TAYLOR, Harry (17 GEE)

24 . GOURDIS, David (P 1 RIC)

25 . GRIMES, Jack (14 MEL)

26 . SELWOOD, Scott (22 WCE)

27 . ELLARD, David (R34 CAR)

28 . WHITECROSS, Brendan (29 HAW)

29 . MCGINNITY, Patrick (P 7 WCE)

30 . RANCE, Alex (18 RIC)

31 . PALMER, Rhys (7 FRE)

32 . O'KEEFE, Guy (63 WBD)

33 . JOSEPH, Aaron (R 2 CAR)

35 . DANGERFIELD, Patrick (10 ADE)

36 . FARMER, Mitchell (49 POR)

37 . DANIHER, Darcy (39 ESS)

38 . ARMFIELD, Dennis (46 CAR)

39 . GRANT, Jarrad (5 WBD)

40 . OTTEN, Andy (27 ADE)

41 . CHENEY, Kyle (53 MEL)

42 . CHIVERS, Glenn (R 8 STK)

43 . BARHAM, Jaxon (61 COL)

45 . TARRANT, Robert (15 KAN)

47 . SANDILANDS, Hugh (R11 HAW)

48 . MCKENNA, Dan (50 GEE)

52 . BIRD, Craig (59 SYD)

53 . REID, Sam (35 WBD)

55 . BROWNE, Steven (36 CAR)

It's just his personal viewpoint and he's by no means perfect. Gourdis over Palmer says it all IMO.

[Deeman 1,479]

Does he work for WCE?

[Go the Biff 3,383]

If i remember correctly Wisbey was harping on about how Melbourne completely [censored] up by picking McLean, he rated him late 30's in 2003 draft.

I can't believe that he has Swift that high after playing little U18 football and no Blease. But good on him for putting the effort in.

I don't think you remember correctly. I don't recall him "harping" ever. In his detailed analysis, he questioned whether Brock had much scope for improvement. Unfortunately it appears the attacks from the keyboard warriors have seen him withdraw his writings from the public arena. That's a pity as I & many others enjoyed reading his views & appreciated the fact that he got off his arse & did his research rather than relying on 90 second YouTube clips. And that he had the balls to back up his predictions with reasoning.

Not everyone gets it right - Adam Fiora anyone ? They all got it wrong the years that Chris Grant went to 105 & James Hird at 79. Every recruiter has picks every year that they'd like to have again. None of them put their lists up for public scrutiny prior to the draft though.

Just for fun though, I pinched some of his comments from an old BigFooty thread

(2001) Late picks i.e. >40 who could bely their draft position:

*Jamar (Rookie draft 6) Will definitely make it if given the chance, IMHO. Seriously underrated.

*Brad Miller (Melb) (55) No certainty but a good outsider bet. 2 grab marking tall inclined to occasional turnovers so has a bit of work to do. Natural leader and determined, athletic tall. I see him as a potential A Dunkley but he must improve his disposal.

(2002) EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite":

JOHNSON, Paul (24) [WCE] Lion-hearted powerful giant. Leading-forward and part-time ruck. Magnificent kick, special small-man skills but NQR tall-man skills, especially poor overhead.

(2003) EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite":

MCLEAN, Brock (5) [Mel] Chunky 6' tireless, courageous, hard-nut. Lacks polish and speed but is footy-smart, indefatigable and gives 110%.

BARTRAM, Clinton (60) [Mel] Hard-running goer but lacks class, has a 6cm reach disadvantage and kicking lets him down. Handy, but not special, pace. If he were to make AFL, it would probably have to be as a run-with. He probably doesn't have enough tricks or silk for other roles. That would play to his major attribute viz endurance.

BUCKLEY, Simon (53) [Mel] 189cm athlete rather than footballer. Long kick but lacks smarts.

Amusing - I wonder if anyone still sees Jamar as underrated ?

The rest of them have pretty much the same qualities & question marks as Wiseby identified.

I'd love to have read his detailed analysis on Watts, Blease & Strauss but it seems those days are gone.

[Rogue 585]

Just for fun though, I pinched some of his comments from an old BigFooty thread

Most of his points raised there were shown to be pretty valid.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,480]

So according to Wisbey:

Our bargains:

Addam Maric - 14 places

Tom McNamara - 52 places (wow!)

Neville Jetta - 16 places

Kyle Cheney - 12 places

Our Rip-Offs:

Cale Morton - 12 places

Jack Grimes - 11 places

Sam Blease - not even in Wiseby's top 40.

At the moment, you'd have to agree with Wisbey's Morton ranking (16) due to demonland's criticism about his kicking. However he did show signs in his games V's Essendon and West Coast to justify pick 4.

Interesting that every other mock draft had Blease in the top 20. Wisbey really must not be a fan of his.

[montasaurus 0]

So according to Wisbey:

Interesting that every other mock draft had Blease in the top 20. Wisbey really must not be a fan of his.

I suspect he may have made a slip up here. But if it was correct I would be interested to see his response. I wonder if anybody has an email contact for him?

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

History could prove every recruiting manager wrong, so why would Wisbey be any different.

Wisbey has a set criteria that he believes makes an AFL footballer, but as we know, recruiting is an inexact science. As for his ratings of Swift and Blease, only time will tell, so it's no use debating whether he's right or wrong.

Personally, I used to enjoy reading his analysis of potential draftees.

Agree with that.

Its a pity that Wisbey has been subjected to unreasonable and unfair pillaging on various forums for his view. My understanding is that Wisbey does much of his work unpaid and out of interest and he does do the hard yards in seeing young players play and is prepared to document in detail his findings.

At the moment, you'd have to agree with Wisbey's Morton ranking (16) due to demonland's criticism about his kicking. However he did show signs in his games V's Essendon and West Coast to justify pick 4.

Interesting that every other mock draft had Blease in the top 20. Wisbey really must not be a fan of his.

Bollocks. Morton played 22 games as an 18yo in one of the worst midfields imaginable last year. He was one of the bright lights. Very premature to assess him now and the criticism of his kicking is overdone and out of context.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I suspect he may have made a slip up here. But if it was correct I would be interested to see his response. I wonder if anybody has an email contact for him?

I would has it as a guess that the question marks would be over what position he could own, his roundedness as a footballer and his low possession count.

[DeeMfc 621]

Bollocks. Morton played 22 games as an 18yo in one of the worst midfields imaginable last year. He was one of the bright lights. Very premature to assess him now and the criticism of his kicking is overdone and out of context.

Correct.

Not only that. How many times was Morton in the clear, screaming for the ball with no opposition within 30mtrs of him and they kick it to a 3 on 1 contest............ ?

[Whispering_Jack 29,333]

There's no real scientific approach to drafting. In the end, we're always dealing with subjective decisions. What might be good in one recruiter's eyes might be average to another. As to Wisbey's omission of Sam Blease from his top 40, I think he gives a clue as to why in this statement about the 'touted' draftees who didn't make his list being either dodgy decision makers or those for whom he "struggled to identify an AFL role they might be capable of 'owning'".

In the case of Blease, it's possible to adopt such a view with a player who is a lightly built bottom ager.

I happen to have a different position with Blease in that he's just one of the types Melbourne is looking for and he fits the style of play Dean Bailey is seeking to develop at the club. He's not going to be a perfect fit for all clubs just as Blight who Wisbey surprisingly rated highly (and who went to Collingwood) wouldn't be in most people's top 40 and who indeed. did not get drafted in the top 40. In drafting, it's often a case of horses for courses and I somehow doubt that Wisbey had the Demons' specific recruiting criteria at the back of his mind when he made his assessments.

From the moment I saw Blease at Telstra Dome v WA 18's, I had him in my top 10 for this draft because he addressed more than one major need for the club. And, as many of the experts (but not Wisbey) said, he ticked a lot of important boxes. This kid might take some time but I reckon he's going to be something special if properly developed by the club and when he matures as a player.

Wisbey also left out a couple of first rounders in Lewis Johnston and Phil Davis. I don't know enough about Davis but Johnston ticks all the boxes for me and he did for the Swans as well.

[Whispering_Jack 29,333]

I've just noticed that Colin Wisbey has posted this message on Extreme Black and White -

Yeah. the touted kids I chose to leave out of my top 40 were ... Davis, Johnson, Blease, Zaharakis and Post. (Cordy was F/S).

I expect all those kids, especially the first 3, to be given plenty of AFL opportunities. It's just that I rated other kids earlier than those kids for various reasons re what I mainly look for in a player.

As I posted some time ago, there is a common perception among the public and most media that all (or most) clubs share a similar opinion about kids drafted in the top 30 (or 20 or 40 or whatever). That's a complete myth.

Some internet posters who are unaware of this being a myth naively ridicule my rankings because of the differences between my rankings and the actual draft order. If such posters could see the rankings from any AFL club, they would see a similar number of differences to the actual draft order.

[e25 5]

I would has it as a guess that the question marks would be over what position he could own, his roundedness as a footballer and his low possession count.

Not to be patronizing, but I'd 'hazard' a guess that his slight build had a lot to do with it, & possibly a lot to do with his assessment of both Blease & Morton.

Wait... that was patronizing... (sorry, too much of a Jimmy Carr fan)

Does he work for WCE?

No. He said he promised some WCE poster mates he'd do profiles for a few of theirs last year & never found the time, so this year he was trying to make it up to them.

Its that simple.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Not to be patronizing, but I'd 'hazard' a guess that his slight build had a lot to do with it, & possibly a lot to do with his assessment of both Blease & Morton.

Wait... that was patronizing... (sorry, too much of a Jimmy Carr fan)

Thanks shaft,

His slight build affecting his ability to own a position and affecting his roundedness ie flexibility.

Not to be patronising but you don't need a comma after "patronising" or "it".

[Rogue 585]

At the moment, you'd have to agree with Wisbey's Morton ranking (16) due to demonland's criticism about his kicking.

I certainly don't!

[Eastie Boyz 0]

How can you know what he is capable of at AFL level without playing U18's? There are many players that dominate U16 level only to go backwards at U18 level and not be drafted.

Marty Clarke, Jim Stynes, both O'hAilpin boys, Kennelly didn't play any footy before they got drafted.

Someone like Brad Moran had only played a year so wouldn't have shown much, but because he's such an athlete someone took the punt on him.

If this guy thinks Tom Swift has the potential to be better than everyone bar Natanui then of course he'll put him at #2.

imo, and by all reports, Swift would have been taken ahead of Rich had he not done his knee a couple of times so that automatically puts him top 7

[Wolfmother 182]

People rate the performance at U18 to high especially the national carnival....

The reason why Swift will be a good player (subject to injuries of course) is because he demonstrated football ability at U16, now the major reason players go backwards from U16 to U18 is because they were big boys as a 16 year old and everyone catches them up. Swift has still grown (I think he is 192cm), previously shown football ability and did reasonably well at draft camp, so he has the ability to be a potentional AFL players.

As for what makes a good recruit... The teams look at things like size and speed as the midfielders in the AFL can now be 6'1 to 6'3 were these players would be KPP in any other league. There is always freaks like Sam Mitchell, Peter Bell who make it without the height but it is becoming a requirement these days.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

People rate the performance at U18 to high especially the national carnival....

The reason why Swift will be a good player (subject to injuries of course) is because he demonstrated football ability at U16, now the major reason players go backwards from U16 to U18 is because they were big boys as a 16 year old and everyone catches them up. Swift has still grown (I think he is 192cm), previously shown football ability and did reasonably well at draft camp, so he has the ability to be a potentional AFL players.

As for what makes a good recruit... The teams look at things like size and speed as the midfielders in the AFL can now be 6'1 to 6'3 were these players would be KPP in any other league. There is always freaks like Sam Mitchell, Peter Bell who make it without the height but it is becoming a requirement these days.

You're not wrong there.

Nick Smith is probably the biggest player in all of the EFL but at AFL he was too short to be a ruckman!