Who will be out the door at seasons end?

[gOLLy 401]

/me keeps on beating the Cousins drum.

[Hannabal 4]

And for all you knobjockeys who say we won't be vying for a flag for another 7 years....

Look at Geelong in 2004

they were bottom 4. They were considered a plodder midfield.

Firstly, Geelong haven't finished bottom 4 since the AFL commenced in 1990.

Secondly, Geelong won the 07 flag on the back of the 01 draft. It took 6 years.

Thirdly, it was stated that we won't be a realistic flag chance for 5-7 years. Now you may think that we can win a flag in 3, and you'd be a fool.

Fourthly, supporters that won't consider trading B grade footballers, such as Rivers, for a first round pick deserve to support a crap side. Btw, I think he's a very good footballer and that's why he may yield a first round pick, although his injuries for 2 years have probably ruled that out.

Much depends on how our recruiting dept rates the top 15 picks this year.

[Jaded No More 59,059]

Most of you guyz have no idea. never read such rubbish before in my life.

Trading Davey who's 24 because in 7 yrs he might not be contributing? are you all mad? Rivers and Davey are 2 of the most marketable and skillful players at our club.

I never advocated trading Rivers or Davey. I was just asking those who believe it will take us 7 years to be a realistic chance at a flag, why we should keep Davey and trade Rivers (both around the same age, both extremely important to our structure).

If the club is planning for a flag in 2015, then we can trade a number of players who will be in their late 20's or early 30's by the time we're ready to challenge, and who will most likely not be getting a game or influencing the results of a match by then. We could probably trade McLean who definitely won't be any faster in 7 years too.

Thankfully I doubt very much that the club plans to be unsuccessful for another 7 years. It might take us that long to win a premiership, but it is certainly realistic for us to play finals in 2010 and when you're playing finals you want the likes of Davey, Rivers and McLean by your side because anything can happen in September.

And while I completely support the need to get another first round pick, it cannot be done at the expense of some of our most important players structurally (it's not as if we are blessed with smart defenders), because odds are, whoever we pick up could very well end up another Luke Molan and then we traded a valuable commodity for a dud.

Besides, I think it's too dangerous to plan so far into the future in AFL, because honestly you just never ever know what will happen. Of course you have to keep topping up your list with talent, especially when you are on the bottom of the ladder, but whatever talent you acquire should compliment the talent you already have, not be at the expense of it. Rivers is one of the few footballers in our club who has both a football brain and beautiful disposal.

[Kit Walker 209]

Davey has some magical skills but also has some shortcomings. It depends on how a side would value him. Gut feeling I think he is possibly somewhere around pick 18 to 25. Possibly favour the Hawks or North. Not for Bullies, Collingwood, Geelong or Adelaide.

Just speculation!

For an existing club, I think you're right.

I suspect he would be worth significantly more than that though to a new club which needs some established players with "flair" (particularly GC) to spark interest and bring in a crowd. Particularly if he is still only 25-27.

I'm not necessarily advocating a trade for Davey (and certainly not this year) but it's worth keeping in mind.

As for some saying he's an important part of our "structure", I don't agree. He's a very exciting player and very good, but probably overrated because of the excitement factor. I can't think of a game in his 90-odd where he has genuinely taken it by the scruff of the neck and dragged us over the line.

[Hannabal 4]

Rivers is one of the few footballers in our club who has both a football brain and beautiful disposal.

Rivers is a B grade footballer who is perhaps not as suited to todays quick rebounding game as others, especially when he's limited to playing on certain types.

So, if you want another first round draft pick as you say, but won't trade a B grader, how do you propose getting that pick ?

Btw, no one is advocating being crud for 5 years.

[sylvinator 96]

Honestly cannot believe people actually truely and honestly believe we won't be a premiership chance for another 7 years!

do u realize how long 7 years is?

and my point is still valid even though they finished 12th instead of 13th.

things change very quickly in football and history proves that. It honestly baffles the mind.... in 7 yrs we'll have an entirely different list that probably will rely on drafting well for the next few years. What if we don't draft well...does that mean it's gonne take another 7 years. and if another top 5 draft pick fails during that time, does that mean it's gonna be 21 years before we can truely go for a flag...

Football does NOT work like that. The successful clubs have been able to win a premiership every 10 or so years consistently. look at carlton and essendon.

PortAdelaide completely rejigged their list and were back in contention only 2-3 yrs after having dropped out of the 8. Same as geelong.

The key to success if having a good culture round the club, with all the players dedicated to success. It's about having all your players peaking at once, and having your best players play most weeks.

The way you guyz speak it's gonna take another 44 years before we win a premiership

and YES, I do think we could be a chance for top 4 in 3 years. our list will be completely different by then and with a bit of luck with drafting, and our guyz like Davey,Rivers,Mclean,Jones,Bate,Green and co will be our leaders. once you get top 4 anything is possible.

[Jaded No More 59,059]

Rivers is a B grade footballer who is perhaps not as suited to todays quick rebounding game as others, especially when he's limited to playing on certain types.

So, if you want another first round draft pick as you say, but won't trade a B grader, how do you propose getting that pick ?

Btw, no one is advocating being crud for 5 years.

Is Davey an A Grade footballer, even though he's done nothing in finals yet?

I would rather offload a young player such as Sylvia or Bell or Dunn or even Green and combine that with a pick in the 30's and see if anyone will give us pick 19/20/21/22 for that. Maybe they won't, maybe they will.

But if Brisbane were willing to give pick 14 for a 27 year old, lazy, underachieving, injury-prone Travis Johnstone, why can't we get a top 20 pick for Green? or for Jones?

Our list management of previous years has been deplorable and has got us to a stage where our senior players are worth nothing. 2 years ago we would have easily got a top 20 pick for Bruce. Yze too perhaps. Now the only players worth anything are those we are not willing to part with.

It's a very difficult thing, deciding what would be more benefitial to the club in the long term, trading an established player for a speculative draft pick, or holding on to the few players you have who you know can cut it at senior level. It's also hard to sit on your hands and do nothing when you're sitting pretty on the bottom of the ladder. But I look at clubs like Collingwood, who rarely trade away their core group (Tarrant aside), and just use whatever picks they have and develop them. And they always seem to be thereabouts. I'm sure Geelong was tempted in 06 to trade quite a few of their players, including Mooney and Johnson. They didn't and it payed off.

I certainly don't envy our coach or the football department. Deciding who to keep is going to be almost as hard as deciding who to throw out.

Any chance a stupid club like Freo will give us a first round pick for Michael "MOTY" Newton?

[Geddy Lee 582]

I'd trade Rivers for a high pick for sure.

People around here think that he is marketable and a leader, yet he is neither. Lowest key Rising Star winner thus far and a genuinely quiet person.

Yet the only defender we have who is above average, and his experience and smarts have prompted his title as the General.

Hmmmm I just want him to get on the park to either increase his trade value or prove that he is vital to this teams next tilt.

[titan_uranus 22,738]

Any chance a stupid club like Freo will give us a first round pick for Michael "MOTY" Newton?

Second round would do me

[Hannabal 4]

Honestly cannot believe people actually truely and honestly believe we won't be a premiership chance for another 7 years!

do u realize how long 7 years is?

The Dees could play finals in 2011 - 3 years away. They could give top 4 a shake in 2012. And they could possibly be in contention for a flag in 2013 onwards. Last time I looked that's 5 years +. Why do you refer to 7 years all the time ? The likely window is 5-7 years, as stated ad nauseum. And there will be a progressive rise all throughout that time - obviously.

But now, yes now, we are in a position to plunder the best talent from a draft that is supposedly brimming with top 20 talent and is the least compromised draft for the foreseeable future.

[Hannabal 4]

Is Davey an A Grade footballer, even though he's done nothing in finals yet?

I would rather offload a young player such as Sylvia or Bell or Dunn or even Green and combine that with a pick in the 30's and see if anyone will give us pick 19/20/21/22 for that. Maybe they won't, maybe they will.

But if Brisbane were willing to give pick 14 for a 27 year old, lazy, underachieving, injury-prone Travis Johnstone, why can't we get a top 20 pick for Green? or for Jones?

You say that our list management has been terrible yet in the face of a great opportunity to make the most of the upcoming draft when we're likely wooden spooners you want to take the conservative approach and sit on your hands.

The scenario you give of off loading Bell or Dunn is futile. We wouldn't get a cold pie for them. The Sylvia and Green deal you suggest may do the job, but doesn't appeal to me. I want a 10-15 pick, not 20+. I reckon we come off worse there.

And Davey ? I'm suprised you even ask the question. Of course he's not A grade. And I doubt that anyone has whacked him more than me on the forums over the last 3 years. But that doesn't mean that I don't consider him presently a more valuable commodity than Rivers. Things change Jaded. Two years ago I thought that Rivers was top 3 importance on our list. Things change.

[Jaded No More 59,059]

You say that our list management has been terrible yet in the face of a great opportunity to make the most of the upcoming draft when we're likely wooden spooners you want to take the conservative approach and sit on your hands.

The scenario you give of off loading Bell or Dunn is futile. We wouldn't get a cold pie for them. The Sylvia and Green deal you suggest may do the job, but doesn't appeal to me. I want a 10-15 pick, not 20+. I reckon we come off worse there.

And Davey ? I'm suprised you even ask the question. Of course he's not A grade. And I doubt that anyone has whacked him more than me on the forums over the last 3 years. But that doesn't mean that I don't consider him presently a more valuable commodity than Rivers. Things change Jaded. Two years ago I thought that Rivers was top 3 importance on our list. Things change.

Fair enough. In 2 years Rivers has been mostly injured, and Davey mostly disappointing (recent form aside). I still would rather keep them both ahead of Sylvia or Green. Sylvia has done nothing and Green won't be around in 5-7 years time. Our window to trade him is running out. Rivers is still young and trading him could be an option in one or two years as well, especially if we're traveling well and we are desperate for an early pick (Sylvia may not be at the club in 2 years the way he's traveling). We'll have 3 picks inside the top 20 as it is, another one would be great but not completely crucial. There is absolutely no guarantee that a top 10 pick will yield the superstar you crave for. At least I know that Rivers will be, at the very least, serviceable for the next 10 years. I would also love to try him as a forward before we decide to put him on the market.

If a club offered us a top 10 pick for Rivers then it would be irresponsible for us not to look at a trade. Anything outside the top 10 is not really worth the risk IMO, especially if we could get a top 20 pick for trading less valuable players. Again, this all comes down to which clubs end up with early picks, whether any of them are willing to even contemplate parting with it and what we think we can get with another top 10 pick. Put it this way, if the shoe was on the other foot I wouldn't want my club trading away a top 10 pick for someone who has OP and is apperantly slow (although I completely disagree that this is a weakness of his). At the moment I believe that Rivers is more valuable to our club than to other clubs, as opposed to someone like Travis Johnstone who was never going to do anything while at the MFC. Maybe the same is true for Sylvia too.

[Rogue 585]

Fair enough. In 2 years Rivers has been mostly injured, and Davey mostly disappointing (recent form aside). I still would rather keep them both ahead of Sylvia or Green.

I would rather keep Davey and Rivers ahead of Jamar and CJ, but that's also beside the point.

If you think Rivers and Davey are worth more than Sylvia and Green, it's a fair guess that some other Clubs might agree.

Thus, it's like comparing apples and oranges.

[beelzebub 22,307]

Persoanally I think we need to be far more ruthless in evaluations going forward with those with 'greater than avergae ' tendencioes to be injured.

Honestly..what value are these players. If younot on the deck to provide consistency or play a part in teh fabric of framework around which a team is built, then for mine you have a problem heaping to much value on them.

Again sentiment getting in the way of reality