Ok, I'm convinced.

Let's get Sully.

Edited 14 hours ago14 hr by Red But Mostly Blue

24 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Whilst he played for vic metro and went to school at Pegs he is from Woodend so not entirely a city boy.

Eagles have Waterman and a glut of young key forwards so for that reason I’d just lock him in at CHB which could be his best role anyway.

But he doesn’t seem a lock to the eagles. With Richmond taking 4 talls last year I wouldn’t be shocked if he fell to Essendon. Although who knows who goes 2/3/4 in that scenario.

Woodend isn't exactly Dimboola though. The point is that, no matter what position he plays, he still requires much more time to develop. The issue with this is twofold for a struggling WA club:

1) This time being in a development phase makes it more difficult to integrate with the club and increases the possibility of homesickness. If you're across the country by yourself playing WAFL in front of a small crowd then the other thoughts are more likely to creep in than when you're in a packed stadium living your dream, or getting limited time in the seniors. It also makes the siren's call of competitors much more alluring when they can offer a better role than he's played (because he'll be a better player by then!) and also closer to home.

2) The value for WC's investment won't be realised until much later, which means that the return they'd get on their investment (both draft and development) will likely be much lower than it would be for, say, Duursma or Reid.

That wouldn't mean that picking him would be the wrong thing to do, but it would make it riskier and possibly make West Coast more willing to do a trade if given an attractive enough deal. The other possibility would be if they can draft WA talent, like they showed they were willing to do in the first round with Harley Reid being the only non-WA first rounder they've taken since Chesser in 2021 (Nixon, Reid, Ginbey, Hewett). In fact the only Vic Metro player on their list that they've taken earlier than the mid-30s was Liam Duggan back in 2014.

He won't make it to our pick. He won't get past Essendon and Richmond. We'll need to trade up to get him and IMO the price to trade up is too high. Better taking two good kids with 7+8 than taking one great and one average.

1 hour ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I get it. Definitely shades of Oliver in there. He's a better kick, and transitions into an attacking threat. A hint of Tom Mitchell with those 1-2 handball chains too.

I don't get Clarry at all. I get Jarrod Berry if anything.

1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

The point is that, no matter what position he plays, he still requires much more time to develop.

Luke Jackson made his debut in round 2, came back in the side in round 7 and made us better until he got injured. Was instrumental in a flag year 2.

Mac Andrew played 17 games in year 2.

Ethan Read played 21 games including finals in year 2.

He had 13 disposals and 3 goals in his vfl game. He runs a 6.21 2km and 2.92 20m sprint.

There’s a track record of guys that athletic and highly rated being able to play quickly. It’s not the standard ruck who you draft and see in 4-5 years.

He seems to have a decent tank on him at that level. Solid ball user. But from the vision, I don't think he has much of a change of pace. He enters and exits packs in a similar motion/speed/arc with not a huge amount of change of direction or variation. Not the worst negative trait going around but that running pattern would probably be defended easily at AFL.

2 is a lot more valuable than 3 because it's before any Richmond picks. And 3 is a lot more valuable than 4 because Richmond aren't going to trade their first pick but they would trade their second one.

Despite points value, 7 and 8 isn't getting 2 and it isn't even getting 3 but it's too much for 4.

Clubs will be thinking we finish bottom 6 next year, possibly bottom 4 or worse, so our F1 has a lot of value. They will also be thinking GC finishes top 6, possibly top 4 or better so that F1 has a lot less value.

I think our F1 is probably about equal value with 7 and 8. Ask yourself whether you'd trade it for 7 and 8?

Our F1 and 8 probably gets 2 and 13 provided we promise WC not to pick the WA guy at 7.

We'd have to love Robey.

Edited 12 hours ago12 hr by old55

1 hour ago, Adam The God said:

I don't get Clarry at all. I get Jarrod Berry if anything.

Moves more like Cripps to me.

Looks too slow. need more zippy kids that can kick. Harvey is going to be our brute we need a defensive midfielder but it’s not a priority with Viney and Steele covered for the next 3-4. Need more like Lindsay and Windsor.

1 hour ago, old55 said:

2 is a lot more valuable than 3 because it's before any Richmond picks. And 3 is a lot more valuable than 4 because Richmond aren't going to trade their first pick but they would trade their second one.

Despite points value, 7 and 8 isn't getting 2 and it isn't even getting 3 but it's too much for 4.

Clubs will be thinking we finish bottom 6 next year, possibly bottom 4 or worse, so our F1 has a lot of value. They will also be thinking GC finishes top 6, possibly top 4 or better so that F1 has a lot less value.

I think our F1 is probably about equal value with 7 and 8. Ask yourself whether you'd trade it for 7 and 8?

Our F1 and 8 probably gets 2 and 13 provided we promise WC not to pick the WA guy at 7.

We'd have to love Robey.

Would have to be pretty special to trade our F1. That could be a top 4 pick in a stronger, less compromised draft

I hope we don’t sell the farm for Robey

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

There’s a track record of guys that athletic and highly rated being able to play quickly. It’s not the standard ruck who you draft and see in 4-5 years.

This can be true whilst CDT’s type being a contributing factor to West Coast being the most likely trading partner if we want Robey is also true.

Unless we convert 7 and 8 to 2 or 3 he will be gone by the time we get a pick.

5 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

We just finished 14th and Essendon and North should improve next year. I’d be surprised if we go a long way backwards and Richmond and WC are probably still closer to no good. But stranger things have happened.

This was all too real a read.

Instead of the jumper, on draft night we can put this on him...

Edited 10 hours ago10 hr by John Demonic

5 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

We just finished 14th and Essendon and North should improve next year. I’d be surprised if we go a long way backwards and Richmond and WC are probably still closer to no good. But stranger things have happened.

The fact that finishing last is a possibility, even if fairly remote, means trading either of our 2026 or 2027 F1s is a very bad idea IMO. North should improve, though their defence is still trash. I think Essendon will be worse next year, even though they had a spectacularly bad run with injury, but could be wrong if they can get some continuity. Tigers and eagles should be bottom two again. Port could drop but there are not many others above us who I could confidently say will fall.

3 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

There’s a track record of guys that athletic and highly rated being able to play quickly.

This was also the Tim Lamb comment re the draft and what having higher picks gets you. Not so much better players, there are plenty of lower draft picks that go on to have great careers, but more that these higher picks are closer to AFL standard already in terms of athleticism and fitness.

I heard dees worried he will go top 3 now thus may attempt to move up.

9 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

WC would surprise me, they have traded down twice already in this rebuild and it’s cost them elite talent. I’d be surprised if they do it unless there’s big go home issues with the top guys and/or they’re super high on Farrow.

i said this in a different thread but both duursma's drafted interstate already have moved home, i would not be taking the risk on willem if im the eagles, 3 year draft contract too, theyll have he and harley both OOC at the same time, if they both left it would genuinely kill the entire rebuild before its even started.

you just have to be honest with your members and say look teh family has form, we back our culture but this kid isnt worth the risk we're taking a guy instead who we have far more confidence in staying the journey