Funny thing is, they think they are back after beating a fellow bottom 6. Yes, keep Voss and keep the circus coming. If anyone just woke up from a coma, they would be forgiven to think they have just won the flag after the carrying on at the ground. 😂😂

30 years and counting…

Edited 18 hours ago18 hr by VNightCityLegend

11 minutes ago, VNightCityLegend said:

Funny thing is, they think they are back after beating a fellow bottom 6. Yes, keep Voss and keep the circus coming. If anyone just woke up from a coma, they would be forgiven to think they have just won the flag after the carrying on at the ground. 😂😂

30 years and counting…

Sounds like Demonland after we beat North last week 😉

4 hours ago, jnrmac said:

So we have demonstrably got worse in the past 4 years and its just 'carry on' as you are.

No discernable game plan, players getting worse at a personal level, few players have improved, same problems of scoring and 'connection, same midfield that are turnover merchants, no key fwd, same selection issues..

Have I missed anything? We re pretty much irrelevant now with terrible timeslots and a media that couldn't care less about the Demons.

This administration and coaching panel - or lack of it - is killing the club

We are becoming irrelevant to our membership base. I’d argue that 75% want a new coach and a game plan we can actually watch.

There was no need to go to the butcher this weekend because both sides were serving up their best tripe with skill errors galore in the midfield.

1 minute ago, SPC said:

We are becoming irrelevant to our membership base. I’d argue that 75% want a new coach and a game plan we can actually watch.

I'd argue that 75% want those who pull percentages from where the sun don't shine to support an indefensible bias to get over it ASAP.

Just me but I thought we looked a bit leg weary right from the start, whereas they looked faster and sharper even though they were making just as many mistakes as us and getting the rub of the green from umpires (4+ goals from magoo’s decisions + 50m penalties). But digging deeper quarter by quarter we had 6-8 players that recorded 4 or less touches in each quarter. And some of the players that went missing is really telling, was Disco, McVee, Trac, Langdon, TMac carrying injuries as they were all well down on previous games. I guess the stats will tell the story,

Still very angry about this loss. Totally unacceptable to be beaten by a depleted bottom 4 side. If this isn't an indicator of deep seated sytemic problems I don't know what is. Goodwin's demeanor at his presser would indicate that he feels the same.

Just now, chook fowler said:

Still very angry about this loss. Totally unacceptable to be beaten by a depleted bottom 4 side. If this isn't an indicator of deep seated sytemic problems I don't know what is. Goodwin's demeanor at his presser would indicate that he feels the same.

We've now lost to 5 of the bottom 7 sides (excluding ourselves). There is no question in my mind that we're closer to a wooden spoon than a finals appearance, unless the powers-that-be extract their digits in a major hurry.

We'll either beat St Kilda and fall over the line against West Coast, or beat West Coast by 60+ and lose to St Kilda over the next fortnight. The chances of us playing at a decent level in both games are almost non-existent.

Funny to hear Nathan Buckley raving about Carlton being "excellent". Yes he said it. Lauded their pressure (fair enough), rated Cripps over Clarry on the night (arguable but OK) and generally raved about the Blues.

He said nothing about the Dees yet this was a game that was arguably decided by a non-free kick (to Clarry) that would have put us inside 50 with two points down and 90 seconds to play. Sadly, the free went begging and a soft as summer butter decision and goal was gifted to Curnow.

I am not saying the umpires determined the result - although they did influence it - because we had our chances as usual with more I-50s and winning contested possession. However, Buckley cited those same stats going Collingwood's way in their loss to Freo to say their game was in a good place. Just goes to show what winning does to perception and "expert commentary".

1 hour ago, layzie said:

There was no need to go to the butcher this weekend because both sides were serving up their best tripe with skill errors galore in the midfield.

Post of the week

3 hours ago, 0livers Army said:

It obviously looks really bad, but apart from this year, expected score differential to actual hasn’t been a chronic issue for us. In fact in 2024 we won more games that we were expected to lose than vice versa (including winning the away game against Port which was hugely unlikely based on expected score). The thing that really hurts is that since 2022 it’s been 14 times we’ve lost when we should’ve won, but 3 of those times were finals and 7 were against either Collingwood or Carlton. The last 4 times against Carlton have followed a similar script; our actual score has been at or slightly below expected but Carlton’s has been way above expected.

The losses in finals may point to the concern having some mental component, but the data suggests the biggest factor is something we don’t like to accept as a part of the game: luck/chance.

But when it happens over and over again doesn't luck become a less and less likely explanation?

"They're playing out of their skin" and "We've got the yips" makes sense to me once. Maybe twice. But four times?

I've had the feeling for a long time that we don't have lopsided goal to behind ratios because we're technically incompetent or mentally fragile - although these may be factors. We have them because failing to put teams away is buried deep in our style - an unintended consequence of numerous things that the current regime has built over many years.

This could be nothing more than a stupid hunch or just dark, irrational thoughts after the disastrous fall away of the last few years, but one of our biggest strengths until 2024 may have hidden one of our biggest weaknesses. The strength was being competitive. Between 2020 and 2023 we almost never got smashed. The weakness was being comfortable with arm wrestles. We had some strong wins during this period, but we weren't a go-for-the-jugular kind of team. In 2022 it didn't look like a weakness at all. I remember Melbourne fans laughing at our ten consecutive wins because so many were sloppy - we had become that thing many of us thought we'd never see: the team that "just knows how to win".

By the end of 2023 this didn't seem to me like something we should treat with glee. We were scraping over the line against some really ordinary teams, keeping them in games so frequently it seemed almost planned. And then the ultimate disaster came in the 2023 semi where a hyped but (I will forever maintain) thoroughly unexciting Carlton stayed within 20 (and usually 10) points all game and then won with seconds to go.

Of course, it might have been nothing more than bad kicking... but by then we had been giving [censored] and middling teams a sniff for a long long time.

We're not remotely close to the team we once were and that strength of never getting thrashed is a full 14 months behind us. But, or so my half-baked theory goes, the weakness remains, more glaring than ever: we don't close out games against really bad teams. And wayward kicking alone doesn't explain it.

Edited 15 hours ago15 hr by The Taciturn Demon

Coaches Votes
Carlton v Melbourne

10 Kysaiah Pickett MELB
6 Jacob Weitering CARL
6 Patrick Cripps CARL
4 Matt Carroll CARL
2 Lachie Cowan CARL
1 Trent Rivers MELB
1 Charlie Curnow CARL

at least we all love KP

18 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Nope, but as the GOAT @WheeloRatings tells us, we are far and away the league’s worst side at losing games despite winning on expected score:

We’re -2.8 wins compared to what expected score ought to have delivered. Only Carlton and WC (both -1.6) and Sydney (-1.0) are at -1 win or worse. Indeed, us and those three clubs aside, everyone sits between -1 to +1 except GWS who is a ridiculous +3.7.

@WheeloRatings do you have the basic W-L based on xScore (ie just a ladder giving each win to the higher xScore)?

-2.8 wins below expected is nothing - we're -3.2 wins in our last four games against Carlton alone!

Here is the expected scores ladder based on wins/losses only. (I don't like simplifying expected scores down to a binary win/loss hence why I post the xWins as a probability of winning each game.)

	Team	W	L	MR	%
1	Collingwood	15	3	83.3%	125.3%
2	Geelong	14	4	77.8%	124.4%
3	Brisbane	13	5	72.2%	121.0%
4	Gold Coast	12	5	70.6%	119.6%
5	Adelaide	12	6	66.7%	124.9%
6	Fremantle	12	6	66.7%	108.9%
7	Hawthorn	11	7	61.1%	112.2%
8	Sydney	11	7	61.1%	101.7%
9	Melbourne	10	8	55.6%	98.8%
10	Carlton	9	9	50.0%	102.5%
11	Western Bulldogs	8	10	44.4%	116.6%
12	Greater Western Sydney	8	10	44.4%	101.3%
13	Port Adelaide	8	10	44.4%	88.2%
14	Essendon	5	12	29.4%	81.1%
15	Richmond	5	13	27.8%	71.2%
16	North Melbourne	4	14	22.2%	80.0%
17	St Kilda	3	15	16.7%	86.1%
18	West Coast	1	17	5.6%	66.0%

Kosi with a perfect 10 in the coaches votes

How much worse off would we be without him.

Scary to think!

3 hours ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

But when it happens over and over again doesn't luck become a less and less likely explanation?

"They're playing out of their skin" and "We've got the yips" makes sense to me once. Maybe twice. But four times?

I've had the feeling for a long time that we don't have lopsided goal to behind ratios because we're technically incompetent or mentally fragile - although these may be factors. We have them because failing to put teams away is buried deep in our style - an unintended consequence of numerous things that the current regime has built over many years.

This could be nothing more than a stupid hunch or just dark, irrational thoughts after the disastrous fall away of the last few years, but one of our biggest strengths until 2024 may have hidden one of our biggest weaknesses. The strength was being competitive. Between 2020 and 2023 we almost never got smashed. The weakness was being comfortable with arm wrestles. We had some strong wins during this period, but we weren't a go-for-the-jugular kind of team. In 2022 it didn't look like a weakness at all. I remember Melbourne fans laughing at our ten consecutive wins because so many were sloppy - we had become that thing many of us thought we'd never see: the team that "just knows how to win".

By the end of 2023 this didn't seem to me like something we should treat with glee. We were scraping over the line against some really ordinary teams, keeping them in games so frequently it seemed almost planned. And then the ultimate disaster came in the 2023 semi where a hyped but (I will forever maintain) thoroughly unexciting Carlton stayed within 20 (and usually 10) points all game and then won with seconds to go.

Of course, it might have been nothing more than bad kicking... but by then we had been giving [censored] and middling teams a sniff for a long long time.

We're not remotely close to the team we once were and that strength of never getting thrashed is a full 14 months behind us. But, or so my half-baked theory goes, the weakness remains, more glaring than ever: we don't close out games against really bad teams. And wayward kicking alone doesn't explain it.

That’s an interesting way of looking at it

I’ve always been frustrated that we’ve rarely been able to put away bottom six teams like Geelong, Brisbane, Dogs etc seem to always be able to do

From 2021-23 it didn’t matter because we were always competitive and mostly won against the best teams (until finals time), but as you say perhaps it was the canary in the coal mine that there were deeper issues at play - the most prominent being that we never developed a consistent mode of scoring

That tied with not being consistent across four qtrs meant we were always gettable if the goals weren’t flowing

Now we’re less competitive and still can’t reliably score and seem to be playing even less qtrs of football

The cliff is here and it sucks

4 hours ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

But when it happens over and over again doesn't luck become a less and less likely explanation?

"They're playing out of their skin" and "We've got the yips" makes sense to me once. Maybe twice. But four times?

I've had the feeling for a long time that we don't have lopsided goal to behind ratios because we're technically incompetent or mentally fragile - although these may be factors. We have them because failing to put teams away is buried deep in our style - an unintended consequence of numerous things that the current regime has built over many years.

This could be nothing more than a stupid hunch or just dark, irrational thoughts after the disastrous fall away of the last few years, but one of our biggest strengths until 2024 may have hidden one of our biggest weaknesses. The strength was being competitive. Between 2020 and 2023 we almost never got smashed. The weakness was being comfortable with arm wrestles. We had some strong wins during this period, but we weren't a go-for-the-jugular kind of team. In 2022 it didn't look like a weakness at all. I remember Melbourne fans laughing at our ten consecutive wins because so many were sloppy - we had become that thing many of us thought we'd never see: the team that "just knows how to win".

By the end of 2023 this didn't seem to me like something we should treat with glee. We were scraping over the line against some really ordinary teams, keeping them in games so frequently it seemed almost planned. And then the ultimate disaster came in the 2023 semi where a hyped but (I will forever maintain) thoroughly unexciting Carlton stayed within 20 (and usually 10) points all game and then won with seconds to go.

Of course, it might have been nothing more than bad kicking... but by then we had been giving [censored] and middling teams a sniff for a long long time.

We're not remotely close to the team we once were and that strength of never getting thrashed is a full 14 months behind us. But, or so my half-baked theory goes, the weakness remains, more glaring than ever: we don't close out games against really bad teams. And wayward kicking alone doesn't explain it.

I think we’re half aligned. Wayward kicking isn’t our primary concern right now. Even looking at everything in the expected score ladders, we’re an ordinary team even if we kick straight.

My point is that wayward kicking actually isn’t chronic to us. It happens to every team, seemingly at random over the years. Just look at this year and how many results are decided based on which team kicks straighter. I’d say the fact that it happens to all sides repeatedly and at random indicates luck is a significant factor. We play a game where a shank that scrapes through by a mm is awarded 6 points, while just a feather of a touch on a post or a fingernail reduces your score by 5 points.

It’s a bit of a myth that we put sides away significantly less than other similarly placed teams in the 2021-2023 period. Our percentage at the end of the year was around 130 each year and in the top few. The fact that we were 30% better than our opposition on average just meant that we were far less likely to lose even when we had bad kicking days. It took something like the 2023 semi where we hit the post 6 or 7 times and had the ANB goal brought back while the opponent had blocked like Owies and Kennedy kicking them from 50m out on the boundary to lose (add the umpire influence that night if you can remember). It sucks, and we don’t lie to accept it, but sometimes the better team on any given day doesn’t win. We’re not the better team by far enough often enough right now.

5 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Kosi with a perfect 10 in the coaches votes

How much worse off would we be without him.

Scary to think!

I'm really only watching games to see the bloke in action.

Such a dynamic player and worth every dollar we paid

And given his age more likely to continue his steep upward trajectory.

That and seeing how a few of the young ones still pan out. A lot of interest in Jeffo and Roo. The latter probably not really in the true young bracket given he's cracked fifty games. Bit I'm keen to see if he recaptures his old form which is a distant memory unfortunately.

But these two are the invested future of our fwd line. So it's a concern. At least Jefferson has shown gradual improvement and doesn't seem afraid anymore.

Roo concerns me probably more. I mean Jeffo has only played about five games and they were pretty much like for like on the weekend.

Although poor Roo gets dragged into ruck duties which he's fairly average in. Surprisingly I think Jeffo is taller but Jvr has a better leap I guess.

Where is our other ruckman? Is it AJ or WV?

Are they worth getting excited about. The clock is closing on Melksham and sadly Max.

What the heck is going on?

What if these two don't improve? And what if Max goes down next year. Yikes.

We better be prepared to burn the house down come trade time and make some super tough calls everywhere.

At present there are way too.many nowhere near what they are being paid.

Except KP who we got cheap.😀

On 20/07/2025 at 22:15, titan_uranus said:

Nope, but as the GOAT @WheeloRatings tells us, we are far and away the league’s worst side at losing games despite winning on expected score:

We’re -2.8 wins compared to what expected score ought to have delivered. Only Carlton and WC (both -1.6) and Sydney (-1.0) are at -1 win or worse. Indeed, us and those three clubs aside, everyone sits between -1 to +1 except GWS who is a ridiculous +3.7.

@WheeloRatings do you have the basic W-L based on xScore (ie just a ladder giving each win to the higher xScore)?

We’re top of the league in expected score versus actual score — which is like saying Apollo 11 had perfect flight metrics but just missed the moon by 30km. “Mission success!” they cried, as they drifted off into the void. But don’t worry — the telemetry looked really good.